2023 NHL Draft Thread

[devo22]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Speaking of ledges in the draft, I can't recall who said it (Craig Button maybe, but I could be wrong), but one of these prospect experts said that the 2 guys ranked after Bedard (assuming Fantilli and either Michkov or Carlsson) are closer to Bedard than they are to the prospects ranked after them. I know I am wording that weird, but they basically suggested that it was like Bedard > Fantilli/Carlson/Michkov >>> any other projected 1st rounder.

Fantilli just feels like Eichel back then to me - he'd be a sure-fire 1st overall in most other classes, but he just happens to be in a class where there's a generational talent. A 6-2 center who completely dominates the USHL at 17 and college at 18? Really sucks to see such a talent land in Anaheim.

Michkov, I'm honestly less familiar with. But even if he's up there talent-wise, the KHL contract and that whole Russian factor would scare the crap out of me. If I'm an NHL team with a high pick, it's Bedard > Fantilli > Carlsson/Michkov > everybody else.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Sorry what kind games did Sutter play with Markstrom again? Publicly supporting him and trying to get him going all year when most here were outraged that he wasn't benching him and playing Vladar? How is that mind games? If anything he tried too long to get him going and gave him too much leash.

How about when Markstrom flat out stated he sucked and had no confidence, but Sutter kept trotting him out there? When a player is that low, the last thing you do is throw him back in the fire. That's the type of stuff that does finish off professional athletes.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Reinbacher is going to rise like crazy. I could see him going as high as 5 or 6.

For sure. And D are going to go higher than all the mocks show for the most part. I think 3 in the top 15.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

I’m not ignoring facts. We’re drawing different conclusions from facts.

Teams tank to cluster talent. It’s the explicit reason why they tank. How long they tank depends on lotteries and randomness. But it’s not like anyone thinks they aren’t tanking on purpose for 5-10 years.

If there are 100 talent points a year 99 go to ~5 teams. Based on luck and tanking 5 or so teams of 32 will get almost all the talent every decade. That isn’t distributed, or even close.

What? Where are you getting that from? That's just a ridiculous statement. Please explain how 5 teams get 'almost all of the talent every decade'.

If you want proof just look at the tanking. it went from a few teams quietly to near a dozen overtly and another dozen teams media wondering why they aren’t tanking.

It is broken.

Yes, teams tanked. Because when you're bad, you're looking to acquire players. That's the entire point of a system that distributes players. That doesn't make it broken. And that is your problem here, IMO. You are offended by tanking, and as a result, label the system as broken. But your alternative would result in a worse distribution of talent.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If you look at Zary's draft... But they have shown they deserve to be in the league.

Okay, you're pointing out the exceptions I spoke of. Most players will take four to five years from being drafted before they make the impact of the players you're pointing to. Players from that draft have just finished their D+3. Dawson Mercer would be the best of the bunch and has actually established himself ahead of the curve, seeing growth year by year and not experiencing a backward step like some of the other players trying to establish themselves. So we say Mercer, Jarvis, and Schnieder have overachieved and already established themselves in D+3. Lundell is on the cusp after taking a small step backward from last season. Every other player has yet to find themselves a regular in the NHL let alone being a significant contributor. So if I give you Lundell as arriving, 19% arrived in D+3, but 81% of the first rounders outside the top 10, are on course for arriving or becoming a contributor in the NHL in D+4 (possibly more).

[Sandman]

David Reinbacher Thoughts:

If you were to ask me any other draft year but this one, I would tell you to stay away from players from the Swiss leagues until later rounds. To me, despite the fact that that system has produced NHLers, the play over there more closely resembles figure skating than the style of hockey we're accustomed to. That said, Reinbacher will be one of the first 2 defensemen taken in this draft, and deservedly so IMO. This season, as an 18 year-old, Reinbacher put up 22 points in 46 games (0.48 ppg), playing against men in Switzerland's top-tier league- which puts him in a tie for 20th overall in points by defensemen, and first overall for a player under-20 (there's only 5 more 18 yo players in that league) by 15 points. Reinbacher's 18 year-old season in the men's league is the second-best all-time for D, eclipsed only by Roman Josi, who put up 24 points in 42 games (0.57 ppg) in his 18 yo year, which was actually his D+1 year (Reinbacher is one of the older players in this draft, having an October birthday, so he played this season as an 18 yo). From what I have read, Reinbacher already comes with a solid base of mature defensive ability- he's not overly physical (even though he can throw a good hit here and there), but will use his size and strength to separate man from puck. He plays a calm, poised positional game in his own zone, and uses his stick well. He's a shutdown guy, who uses smarts and a good gap to consistently keep the puck out of danger areas, although he has been accused of puck-watching and floating sometimes. His game is not flashy, and he keeps it simple in the offensive zone as well. His main weapon is said to be his shot, and his ability to get it on net through traffic- making life difficult for opposing goalies, and creating opportunities for teammates. One of his other specialtes is transition, and his percentage of exits and entries with control is very high. He has confidence in carrying. Reinbacher is an excellent skater in a technical sense, where his smoothness and mechanics are sound, but his speed needs work, as he's not getting enough power in his stride. It is believed, though, that this deficiency will work itself out as he matures, and gets stronger. The ceiling here is top-pairing D.

[Flames1217]

Originally Posted by Naitix

I think Matthew Wood could make the team 1 year post draft, he is my top target now unless players drop

Same.

Everything I have seen so far leads me to believe that there is very little bust factor when it comes to his game.

Hope he is still around when we pick.

[dammage79]

I'll say this about the D men projected to go early 1st round: they won't make it to CGY. We will get a really good fw at 16. A really really good one.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Do you see a Moritz Seider as a comparable? (to sandman)

[serratedmuffin]

https://theathletic.com/4498815/2023...dard-fantilli/


The Athletic post lottery mock up to 16 with the Flames taking Willander as the 3rd D off the board. I personally think that it is a reach for need.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Couple of NHL.com mocks
Morreale has them take Otto Stenberg at 16, while Kimelman takes Samuel Honzek.

For the record I don't find their projections to be very accurate.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Couple of NHL.com mocks
Morreale has them take Otto Stenberg at 16, while Kimelman takes Samuel Honzek.

For the record I don't find their projections to be very accurate.

Rarely are..

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Do you see a Moritz Seider as a comparable? (to sandman)

I think that Seider is much bigger, and more physical, as well as a better skater. One writer compared DR's game to that of Shea Theodore, and that I can see. Another comparison I rather like is Brett Pesce.

No doubt though, Seider has been cited as a comparable, though I think it may be more to do with both players emerging from European men's leagues that don't typically produce many NHL prospects, and thus being harder to project. Since Seider was such a huge success, perhaps players like Reinbacher are being seen in a different light? I might be crazy...

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Couple of NHL.com mocks
Morreale has them take Otto Stenberg at 16, while Kimelman takes Samuel Honzek.

For the record I don't find their projections to be very accurate.

There's been a few Flames-Honzek connections....

[Paulie Walnuts]

Sandman is like a draft chatpgt just type a name and you shall receive.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I think that Seider is much bigger, and more physical, as well as a better skater. One writer compared DR's game to that of Shea Theodore, and that I can see. Another comparison I rather like is Brett Pesce.

No doubt though, Seider has been cited as a comparable, though I think it may be more to do with both players emerging from European men's leagues that don't typically produce many NHL prospects, and thus being harder to project. Since Seider was such a huge success, perhaps players like Reinbacher are being seen in a different light? I might be crazy...

I've read the Pesce comparison too. And he's a really good dman.
But in this draft, with a top 10 pick, if you come away with Brett Pesce, I'm not sure you are happy.
I've also heard comparisons to Adam Larsson.
So trying to get my head around if that's the ceiling or if there is little more offensive skill to be unlocked.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by VilleN

He was a Vezina candidate the season before... while last year he was bad, I don't think that is conclusive evidence that he's "done".

There's never conclusive evidence, but he's been bad a year and a half now. I'm calling it that his confidence is shot and he won't recover. I knew it after his lambasting last year in the playoffs and was right when he stunk it up this year. Confidence takes time to rebuild, and as a guy on the wrong side of 30, to me there's very little question he's done.

[Royle9]

I really hope the flames stay away from Honzek @ 16.
It would be a stereotypical flames "draft big, big = good" pick and that's what worries me.

Honzek likely tops out as a bottom 6 forward, hes not really strong at one particular thing but a solid depth guy who can get in front of the net and make things happen. He has good hands for a big guy, but he's more a playmaker than a shooter.

Flames need high end skill, and Honzek isnt that.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I really hope the flames stay away from Honzek @ 16.
It would be a stereotypical flames "draft big, big = good" pick and that's what worries me.

Honzek likely tops out as a bottom 6 forward, hes not really strong at one particular thing but a solid depth guy who can get in front of the net and make things happen. He has good hands for a big guy, but he's more a playmaker than a shooter.

Flames need high end skill, and Honzek isnt that.

Not quite the same thing because I'm sure he's a better prospect but I remember the day Sutter drafted Chris Chuko. His profile was a third liner. Why would anyone spend a first rounder on someone who projects to be that low when you can get it on the FA market for a bargain basement price? This year I'm not familiar with most prospects, but if the skill is low they're drafting with an old school philosophy. Better off dealing the pick for higher end skill already in the league. I just hope they find a prospects who has a good chance of making it while having that high end skill, then spending day and night babying them until they develop in the minor leagues. They need to do that.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I've read the Pesce comparison too. And he's a really good dman.
But in this draft, with a top 10 pick, if you come away with Brett Pesce, I'm not sure you are happy.
I've also heard comparisons to Adam Larsson.
So trying to get my head around if that's the ceiling or if there is little more offensive skill to be unlocked.

For me, it's hard to project players from leagues like the NL in Switzerland, but I didn't think Seider would amount to much either, so what do I know, lol....