Agreed. I was being pretty literal. It would be a bad day for us in Calgary.
"Buildings in zone 5 are still at risk of collapse if the roofs are not immediately cleared of ash. Trees would be severely damaged due to breaking of branches. Road transport would be halted due to build up of ash on roads and cars would stop working as air-filters become clogged. Rail transport and electricity may be cut as wet ash short circuits signaling systems and sub-stations"
I would love to build a bunker one day.
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Apparently around 5000 buildings collapsed I keep looking at the washington post and their estimates grew from 1700 at first to now 5000.. however I think the final toll is going to be catastrophic
Absolute incredible damage shown by drone, and to think this happened at 4 am when everyone was sleeping makes it even worst.
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Just impossible to imagine how difficult the recovery from this will be. Where are the survivors sheltering at this point? If someone lives in a building that didn't collapse, how trusting are they that it will withstand any aftershocks?
According to that link, we are in zone 5 and we can expect 15cm of ash.
I don't think that's terribly catastrophic? It would be like a snow day, just black.
While it may not a be physically destructive catastrophe here in Calgary, I imagine the pain would be through large-scale degradation/collapse of infrastructure. We could have massive power outages, water supply issues, destroyed transportation networks that affect food supply etc. Once things cascade, it doesn't take much to delve into catastrophe territory...especially if you consider it happening in the middle of winter. Never mind the fact that a good chunk of the continent would be facing similar issues, so help would probably be very thin or delayed.
I don't think it's something anyone should plan their life around, but a little general emergency prep is never a bad idea.
While it may not a be physically destructive catastrophe here in Calgary, I imagine the pain would be through large-scale degradation/collapse of infrastructure. We could have massive power outages, water supply issues, destroyed transportation networks that affect food supply etc. Once things cascade, it doesn't take much to delve into catastrophe territory...especially if you consider it happening in the middle of winter. Never mind the fact that a good chunk of the continent would be facing similar issues, so help would probably be very thin or delayed.
I don't think it's something anyone should plan their life around, but a little general emergency prep is never a bad idea.
My Emergency Prep has been to Map out Silver's House and to be ready to Pillage his supplies at the first sign of Trouble.
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Living on the west coast (especially between San Fran and Portland where there is a triple junction of tectonic plates) in the next handful of years would not be wise
It's a ticking time bomb
My structural geology prof in university never referred to San Francisco by name, he always called it 'the city that is waiting to die'.
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Originally Posted by D as in David
Just impossible to imagine how difficult the recovery from this will be. Where are the survivors sheltering at this point? If someone lives in a building that didn't collapse, how trusting are they that it will withstand any aftershocks?
There was a great interview this morning on CBC, the guy was talking about the differences between Turkiye and Syria's response to the quake. Obviously both regions are in shamble but his prediction of the response shows a very dramatic difference. Sounds like foreign help is already on the way/on the ground in Turkiye. Much easier to get supplies to the region, good medical infrastructure the immediate area to transport the injured with further evac to the large hospitals around the country after initial triage. Syria on the other hand is in the middle of a civil war, there is no medical or logistical infrastructure. It's a complete disaster.
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Agreed. I was being pretty literal. It would be a bad day for us in Calgary.
"Buildings in zone 5 are still at risk of collapse if the roofs are not immediately cleared of ash. Trees would be severely damaged due to breaking of branches. Road transport would be halted due to build up of ash on roads and cars would stop working as air-filters become clogged. Rail transport and electricity may be cut as wet ash short circuits signaling systems and sub-stations"
Oh and ash is basically micro shards of glass, so breathing would be fun
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It’s a lucky prediction. There’s no structural geological statistical models to predict when earthquakes occur. Scam artists they are. “Sooner than later” yeah great job.. the closest the USGS has to a “prediction” are aftershocks above a certain size. They do not explain magnitude or timing.
Last edited by TherapyforGlencross; 02-07-2023 at 12:57 PM.
Oh and ash is basically micro shards of glass, so breathing would be fun
In both cases, would wearing masks be helpful? Like I see so many people running around in the clips after the earth quake but no one with something on their face to filter dust and perhaps even smoke or whatever is in the air from what's happening nearby.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross
It’s a lucky prediction. There’s no structural geological statistical models to predict when earthquakes occur. Scam artists they are. “Sooner than later” yeah great job..
Unless it's a confused context situation?
There's nothing scammy or lucky about predicting where an earthquake will happen. It's scammy and/or lucky to claim you know when it will happen. I don't know if this guy claimed to know it was happening soon though.
The sooner or later aspect I don't think is supposed to be a prediction of when it will happen. It's more a here is where it will happen, but who knows when.
My Emergency Prep has been to Map out Silver's House and to be ready to Pillage his supplies at the first sign of Trouble.
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Originally Posted by D as in David
Hell, once I get wind of it being constructed, I'm going to move in; unbeknownst to Sliver.
You guys are vastly over-estimating my level of preparedness. I never did build my bunker. At my house you'll find weed, car-detailing supplies and my yo-yo collection. I'm afraid I'll be one of the side characters who gets wiped out in the first 24 hours of an apocalypse.
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It’s a lucky prediction. There’s no structural geological statistical models to predict when earthquakes occur. Scam artists they are. “Sooner than later” yeah great job.. the closest the USGS has to a “prediction” are aftershocks above a certain size. They do not explain magnitude or timing.
Out of curiosity, I was reading through a lot of his Tweets and he has actually had some pretty accurate predictions and he doesn't seem to brag about them, from what I can tell. He has had a lot of misses as well, although he never goes all in usually just saying there is an elevated risk and not that something will happen for sure.
He did nail the quake in Xinjiang on Jan. 29th. At 2:44 PM he tweeted that the region was at an increased risk for the next 1-6 days, and at 10:58 PM that same day, there was a 5.8 quake. The "sooner or later" Tweet about Turkey-Syria came after "increased risk" predictions passed without anything happening.
Could easily be a case of throwing enough darts to get a bullseye of course. It seems like most of the "increased risk" warnings pass without anything happening and they are for areas that are known to be geologically active. I am not saying this guy is actually predicting anything, but he does seem to know enough to play the odds well.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 02-07-2023 at 01:38 PM.
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Out of curiosity, I was reading through a lot of his Tweets and he has actually had some pretty accurate predictions and he doesn't seem to brag about them, from what I can tell. He has had a lot of misses as well, although he never goes all in usually just saying there is an elevated risk and not that something will happen for sure.
He did nail the quake in Xinjiang on Jan. 29th. At 2:44 PM he tweeted that the region was at an increased risk for the next 1-6 days, and at 10:58 PM that same day, there was a 5.8 quake. The "sooner or later" Tweet about Turkey-Syria came after "increased risk" predictions passed without anything happening.
Could easily be a case of throwing enough darts to get a bullseye of course. It seems like most of the "increased risk" warnings pass without anything happening and they are for areas that are known to be geologically active. I am not saying this guy is actually predicting anything, but he does seem to know enough to play the odds well.
That's all he's doing. He looks at areas with frequent earthquakes, picks some spots that are probably overdue, and hopes he gets lucky. It's like putting a red circle around Calgary in August and saying "Sooner or later there will be a significant hail storm in this region"
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You guys are vastly over-estimating my level of preparedness. I never did build my bunker. At my house you'll find weed, car-detailing supplies and my yo-yo collection. I'm afraid I'll be one of the side characters who gets wiped out in the first 24 hours of an apocalypse.
Exactly what a Lake Bonavista prepper would say to throw us off the scent.
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That's all he's doing. He looks at areas with frequent earthquakes, picks some spots that are probably overdue, and hopes he gets lucky. It's like putting a red circle around Calgary in August and saying "Sooner or later there will be a significant hail storm in this region"
More like, "Sooner or later there will be golf ball or tennis ball sized hail in this region." He's actually predicting the severity in an area that is well known for these types of events.
He's like a card counter in a different topic IMO. He knows the potential end outcome, but not necessarily when that outcome will be. Or at least not in a manner that benefits those that subscribe to his information.
I think it's bull#### as well, but even for a bull#### guess, hitting on two eathquake predictions and accurately asserting both location and relative intensity over the span of a month is... extremely unlikely. Something still seems amiss here
Just a completely hypothetical thought experiment here, but what if you could predict earthquakes, but only with like 30% accuracy, and only within hours of it happening, would you even want to warn people? The mass panic, fleeing, crime, and looting that could occur might not be worth it with only 30% accuracy. Yet if it ever became public that you could have warned people but didn't, and something did happen, it would not look good on the government for not issuing a warning.
Scientific advancement may one day make predictions possible to some degree, so maybe one day it will need to be talked about.
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I keep looking at the washington post and their estimates grew from 1700 at first to now 5000.. however I think the final toll is going to be catastrophic
