[Signing] BUF signs Tage Thompson to extension (7 yr, $7.14 mil AAV)

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I think Dallas really missed the boat by not giving Robertson a max term de in this instance. The current contract is okay, but they are set up for a world of hurt with the single year of RFA status like we were with Tkachuk.

The deal is still for 4 years, so it's not like it's a problem today, but man I bet they're kicking themselves that they didn't double down for 9.5 or something like that.

A 23 year old isn't signing an 8 yr deal unless it is really really really worth their while. Robertson has set himself up for his UFA deal:

best case scenario = $100M +31M = 131M
likely = 64M-80M = 95-111M
worst case = 0-?? = 31M - ?? (but I can't think of any once promising players who found themselves out of the league or dropping their AAVs significantly by age 27)


So you'd have to pay him pretty close to $100M on this deal to make it worth his while, because a UFA deal for a 31 yo winger is far harder to predict (plenty examples of guys falling off by then), and could easily be a lot less than the 31M deal he just signed.

[bax]

I haven’t been this wrong about a player since I guaranteed Draisaitl would be a bust after his rookie season

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Wow they must really think he can put up 70+ consistently

Ha, jokes on them since he's only on pace for a measly 65.


Oh you weren't talking about goals.

[OptimalTates]

Maybe jokes not on them. He's on pace for 69 goals now. Better pace than the golden boy up north.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Maybe jokes not on them. He's on pace for 69 goals now. Better pace than the golden boy up north.

Nice.

[GordonBlue]

legit Hart candidate. If he keeps up the same pace and Buffalo makes the playoffs, I bet he wins.

[kipperiggy]

Originally Posted by gordonblue

legit hart candidate. If he keeps up the same pace and buffalo makes the playoffs, i bet he wins.

abc.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by kipperiggy

abc.

all jokes aside, I bet there is McDavid fatigue from the voters and he'll drop to 2 or 3rd choice in many eyes.
I can see a few of them being "yeah, yeah. McDavid being McDavid, but Thompson!!!!"

He's made me seek out Buffalo games to watch, when I had become just a casual hockey fan.

[Monahammer]

I was scoffing at random people saying he looks like Mario out there, but holy #### does he ever.

[cannon7]

The Sabres traded for Thompson four and a half years ago. The full blockbuster deal went like this: Ryan O'Reilly to St. Louis in exchange for Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson , a 2019 first-round pick (which ended up being 31st overall, Ryan Johnson) and a 2021 second-round pick (traded to Ottawa).

If not for Thompson...

[OutOfTheCube]

If a year and a half ago you would've given me the option of what was more likely, people seriously comparing Thompson to Mario Lemieux while he's a mid-season Hart trophy candidate VS. the earth getting hit by an asteroid, I probably would've taken the apocalypse.

I'm not sure the NHL has seen anything like this, at least not for a long time in a forward. It's not like there was some linear progression or really any progression at all. He was barely an NHL player and looked ready to flame out, heck on a team with any sort of depth he would've been out of the league already -- most of us were annoyed they gave him a one way contract over $1M. Then to one of the best players in the league basically overnight. Maybe unprecedented?

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

If a year and a half ago you would've given me the option of what was more likely, people seriously comparing Thompson to Mario Lemieux while he's a mid-season Hart trophy candidate VS. the earth getting hit by an asteroid, I probably would've taken the apocalypse.

I'm not sure the NHL has seen anything like this, at least not for a long time in a forward. It's not like there was some linear progression or really any progression at all. He was barely an NHL player and looked ready to flame out, heck on a team with any sort of depth he would've been out of the league already -- most of us were annoyed they gave him a one way contract over $1M. Then to one of the best players in the league basically overnight. Maybe unprecedented?

maybe it's because of his size. Perhaps last year he finally mentally grew into his huge frame? Mind and body were finally on the same page? I don't know if I'm explaining what I mean, but regardless it's fun to watch.

You're right though, usually you can see something in a young player to indicate they had potential to be an all-star. This is pretty nuts.

[cdnsir]

PEDs

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

If a year and a half ago you would've given me the option of what was more likely, people seriously comparing Thompson to Mario Lemieux while he's a mid-season Hart trophy candidate VS. the earth getting hit by an asteroid, I probably would've taken the apocalypse.

I'm not sure the NHL has seen anything like this, at least not for a long time in a forward. It's not like there was some linear progression or really any progression at all. He was barely an NHL player and looked ready to flame out, heck on a team with any sort of depth he would've been out of the league already -- most of us were annoyed they gave him a one way contract over $1M. Then to one of the best players in the league basically overnight. Maybe unprecedented?

Very different type of player, but similar progression to Martin St. Louis I'd think?

[Funkhouser]

He’s basically the Buffalo version of Joe Colborne

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The O’Rielly-Thompson deal is looking like the modern day Nieuwendyk for Iginla. St. Louis got their cup and RoR was the MVP. Thompson has morphed into a franchise player for Buffalo. Great to see this turn into a win-win trade when it is all said and done.

I was thinking the same thing, there are many similarities in how the players were acquired and the results so far.

The big difference is that Iginla started making an impact earlier in his career. He still ended up exceeding expectations though. Not nearly the kind of development jump Thompson has had, but he still became better than what could have been hoped for.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

A 23 year old isn't signing an 8 yr deal unless it is really really really worth their while. Robertson has set himself up for his UFA deal:

best case scenario = $100M +31M = 131M
likely = 64M-80M = 95-111M
worst case = 0-?? = 31M - ?? (but I can't think of any once promising players who found themselves out of the league or dropping their AAVs significantly by age 27)


So you'd have to pay him pretty close to $100M on this deal to make it worth his while, because a UFA deal for a 31 yo winger is far harder to predict (plenty examples of guys falling off by then), and could easily be a lot less than the 31M deal he just signed.

You're suggesting the Stars would have had to pay a player like Roberston 12M+ AAV for 8 years with one significant season under his belt at the time? You realize this would be McDavid money, right (and the highest AAV in the league)? Which he signed after multiple 100 point seasons versus Robertsons single 79 point year....

Not a chance that a 7 or 8 year deal last summer would have been higher than $10M or maybe a $10.5M AAV given the track record of the player.

[Naitix]

Ruzicka becoming the next Tage Thompson would be an equivalent breakout. Absolutely wild how he came out of nowhere

[DeluxeMoustache]

Impressive that he has two 6 point games so far this year

I wonder what is the most time it has been done in a season?

I recall Johnny getting 6 points once, and think that’s it for Calgary in the 2000s. Then there was that time Zibanejad did it twice, within a couple of weeks of each other, both against Philly.


Edit : looked it up. If he does it again, he is in rare company

5 x 6+ point games in a season
Gretzky - 1985-86

4
Gretzky - 1983-84, 1984-85
Lemieux 1988-89

3
Gretzky - 1988-89
Lemieux - 1991-92
Joe Malone - 1919-20

2 (18 in total, including Gretzky x5, listing post 2000 only)

Zibanejad - 2020-21
Thompson (this year)

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

You're suggesting the Stars would have had to pay a player like Roberston 12M+ AAV for 8 years with one significant season under his belt at the time? You realize this would be McDavid money, right (and the highest AAV in the league)? Which he signed after multiple 100 point seasons versus Robertsons single 79 point year....

Not a chance that a 7 or 8 year deal last summer would have been higher than $10M or maybe a $10.5M AAV given the track record of the player.

Yes, that is exactly what I'm suggesting.

McDavid signed his deal at the earliest possible opportunity, while he was 20 years old and it was buying ages 21-29. He would have been crazy not to...he might have been smarter to go for like 5-6 years from a destination control standpoint, but financially it probably wouldn't be a huge difference.


Robertson on the other hand was not signing 1 year in advance, and is 23. He would be insane to walk himself to age 31 unless it came with an insane premium. He's taken a modest risk and it looks likely that he'll end up with well over $130M.

Had he taken a safe $80M bet this off-season, he'd need to earn another $50M on deals signed after age 31.