Where do the Flames find that extra goal per game?

[Enoch Root]

When it comes to the 'just get in' argument, it matters what team you are referring to.

When Flame fans lament this comment, it is because they are thinking about past, bubble teams, that squeaked into the playoffs, but had no realistic chance of beating any good teams.

However, the teams listed above were all very good teams that were built for playoff success. For teams like that, where they finish in the regular season was in fact irrelevant - they were teams that had a legitimate chance to win some playoff series.

The question for this year's Flames team is; are they a bubble team that will be setting themselves up to waste 8 days, or are they like the teams above - a solid team that can do damage in the playoffs?

IMO, they are very much the latter. Also, the Pacific is very much a division ripe for the picking. So I think it is very fair to suggest that the Flames 'just need to get in and anything could happen'.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

When it comes to the 'just get in' argument, it matters what team you are referring to.

When Flame fans lament this comment, it is because they are thinking about past, bubble teams, that squeaked into the playoffs, but had no realistic chance of beating any good teams.

However, the teams listed above were all very good teams that were built for playoff success. For teams like that, where they finish in the regular season was in fact irrelevant - they were teams that had a legitimate chance to win some playoff series.

The question for this year's Flames team is; are they a bubble team that will be setting themselves up to waste 8 days, or are they like the teams above - a solid team that can do damage in the playoffs?

IMO, they are very much the latter. Also, the Pacific is very much a division ripe for the picking. So I think it is very fair to suggest that the Flames 'just need to get in and anything could happen'.

The one thing I was thinking of was the Red Wings. Now they didn't have the turnover like we have but they had a huge season 60 wins big stats and goals and got swept in the finals the next season they had a pedestrian regular season 38 wins and 18 ties and won the cup.

Right now we are on pace 38 wins and 14 extra time losses. Just saying...

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Its a different league but:

03-04 Flames: 12th overall, 6th seed
11-12 Kings: 13th overall, 8th seed
13-14 Kings: 10th overall, 6th seed

So really if the Flames can get one of the Pacific division spots and be around 12th overall snd the 5th or 6 seed in the conference theyd be fine. Ideally youre not the 7 or 8 seed but i dont think they need to be top seed in division either.

Right now based on point percentage they are 7th in the conference and 15th in the league, so wouldnt be that hard to move up with a little run.

With any other coach it would be a crazy plan. There are frequent Cinderella runs by low ranking teams, but they almost always fail to beat the real top teams in the end. Sutter is the outlier in carrying Cinderella teams to be real cup winners, which he did riding Quick for the Kings and Kipper for the Flames (giving credit for game 6 being a win). Does Marky have it in him to be that guy under Sutter to make that magic happen? He did in round 1, but totally blew it in round 2 and sunk the ship. So, I guess hope for success from the low seed entry is pegged to both faith in Sutter as having some special magic to win in the playoffs and in Markstrom being a world beater through 4 full rounds when the pressure is on.

[Paulie Walnuts]

His two cup runs with the King's couldn't have been more opposite. First run just rolled through teams in 20 games.

Second cup won 3 straight 7 game series and also battled back from 0-3 against San Jose.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

IMO, they are very much the latter. Also, the Pacific is very much a division ripe for the picking. So I think it is very fair to suggest that the Flames 'just need to get in and anything could happen'.

All the arguments about the Pacific being weak aren't very convincing in terms of chasing the cup. Getting through the first or second round doesn't matter too much if you can't beat really top teams in the third and fourth rounds. For a team that's in it to win it now, success is about winning those rounds against the truly top teams in the league and being the last one standing after beating the best of the best

[Classic_Sniper]

The team is probably closer to half a goal per game off compared to last season. So in terms of raw numbers, that’s about about 20 goals.

In my opinion, the difference has been the powerplay and the top line. Last season, the Flames had a top 10 powerplay, scoring at a rate of 22.9%, this season we sit at 18.6%. The difference isn’t vast, but it does account for roughly 6 goals.

The biggest difference has been the top end scoring though. The Flames don’t have anyone even close to the approaching the 100+ point mark (on pace). Lindholm is the closest at roughly 73 points. So not having a 100+ point top line accounts for about 15-20 goals.

Now, this is a very simplistic way of looking at the math and it doesn’t account for defensive play and or all the nuances and etc. But for the sake of simplicity, it does explains the drop off in goals. Now for me, I don’t necessarily see things changing too much, I think the team will be involved in close games all season in which they’ll have to grind out wins.

But the one thing I do like compared to last year’s team is the additional scoring punch from the 3rd line. I thought last year’s 3rd line held the team back at times last season, but this season, there’s been a noticeable uptick in play from that line. Helps that we have a 3 headed monster in Lindholm, Kadri and Backlund up the middle.

Now if Treliving can acquire a big offensive threat that can glue the top 9 together, then I think this team can possibly make some noise in the playoffs. But until that happens, the team has to continue grinding out points any way they can.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

The team is probably closer to half a goal per game off compared to last season. So in terms of raw numbers, that’s about about 20 goals.

In my opinion, the difference has been the powerplay and the top line. Last season, the Flames had a top 10 powerplay, scoring at a rate of 22.9%, this season we sit at 18.6%. The difference isn’t vast, but it does account for roughly 6 goals.

The biggest difference has been the top end scoring though. The Flames don’t have anyone even close to the approaching the 100+ point mark (on pace). Lindholm is the closest at roughly 73 points. So not having a 100+ point top line accounts for about 15-20 goals.

Now, this is a very simplistic way of looking at the math and it doesn’t account for defensive play and or all the nuances and etc. But for the sake of simplicity, it does explains the drop off in goals. Now for me, I don’t necessarily see things changing too much, I think the team will be involved in close games all season in which they’ll have to grind out wins.

But the one thing I do like compared to last year’s team is the additional scoring punch from the 3rd line. I thought last year’s 3rd line held the team back at times last season, but this season, there’s been a noticeable uptick in play from that line. Helps that we have a 3 headed monster in Lindholm, Kadri and Backlund up the middle.

Now if Treliving can acquire a big offensive threat that can glue the top 9 together, then I think this team can possibly make some noise in the playoffs. But until that happens, the team has to continue grinding out points any way they can.

After 40 games last year the team had scored 128 goals
After 40 games this season the have scored 123 goals

After 40 games last season the team had given up 99 goals
This season after 40 games the team has given up 119 goals

This clubs flaws are not in the offensive zone nearly as much as they are in their own end.

With Markstrom back on track, a better team defense effort the last month or so, and new guys settling into their roles, it should start to translate into wins more than it has.

That doesnt mean they are a top 6 guy short of where it should be, because they are. Also you can never have enough scorers. But in a Sutter system, if you dont defend properly, it gets tough to win consistently.

I think all the signs are starting to point in the right direction of a decent run coming for the group.

Up to them at this point and as always a bit of luck in avoiding major injuries to key guys.

[JohnnyB]

Look at what happened after game 40 last season. They exploded, with amazing performances by the top stars.

They scored 165 goals after game 40, so almost one more goal per game. Had they not exploded and just continued on their pace of the first 40, they would have been a bubble team that was borderline to make the playoffs.

[GranteedEV]

1) Give the team a real first line. Lindholm and Backlund have given us two excellent second lines and Ruzicka has given us a strong fourth

Huberdeau - Kadri is a start, but Lucic doesn't have the coordination left to pot the 20-25 goals his linemates should be creating for him. I firmly believe Matthew Phillips or Matt Coronato could fill this role, but it comes down to the coaching staff.

2) Get Oliver Kylington back. Not only does that allow us to reunite Zadorov-Weegar, but it gives us a much improved transition attack. More importantly, if we can reduce goals against, that will put us in a better position to pad goal stats with empty netters. And Less responsibility should also open up Weegar's game a little to be more offensive.

3) Fix the god damn powerplay. I don't think Rasmus Andersson is the answer at the point. I don't know if the four forwards currently on PP1 can fill the roles we actually need them to fill. And having guys on this strong wing is isn't really the answer. It's going to get a lot of flak but even here guys like Coronato or Phillips on the left circle may be the answer. But either way, we need a more surgical PPQB. Andersson is a good player but he doesn't really drive PP scoring the way even a guy like Tyson Barrie does.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by transplant99

After 40 games last year the team had scored 128 goals
After 40 games this season the have scored 123 goals

After 40 games last season the team had given up 99 goals
This season after 40 games the team has given up 119 goals

This clubs flaws are not in the offensive zone nearly as much as they are in their own end.

With Markstrom back on track, a better team defense effort the last month or so, and new guys settling into their roles, it should start to translate into wins more than it has.

That doesnt mean they are a top 6 guy short of where it should be, because they are. Also you can never have enough scorers. But in a Sutter system, if you dont defend properly, it gets tough to win consistently.

I think all the signs are starting to point in the right direction of a decent run coming for the group.

Up to them at this point and as always a bit of luck in avoiding major injuries to key guys.

I would agree with this because numbers aren’t always right, but based on the eye test, it just feels like this team is having trouble scoring enough goals and at the right times. I don’t remember feeling this way at all last season where the team won games comfortably on a regular basis while finishing 5th or 6th in GF in the league.

Now, goals against can create the same dilemma. So perhaps it could be as simple as the team almost trying too hard to score goals and in the process, give up big chances the other way in pursuit of goals.

Like, just as an example, look at Elias Lindholm’s +/- this season compared to last season? He finished with a staggering +61 last season, this season, on pace for +2. That’s almost a difference of 60 goals. The top line last season played Darryl Sutter hockey to perfection; they gave up nothing and scored playing the right way. This team doesn’t have a line that can do that anymore.


EDIT: Also, I just checked. The team was ranked 12th in the league in goals last season 40 games in, this season, we sit 22nd. So even if the raw values are close, we’re 10 teams behind from where we sat last season. I’m guessing that goal scoring is up this season which could account for the difference.

[Paulie Walnuts]

We can't keep comparing this year to last year it's a different top two lines if we had the same players yes but these are new lines and players. They will have to find their way of building chemistry and dominating.

Plus 61 and two 100 point players are not things you expect yearly that's everything aligning and going perfect.

Our pairings also took awhile to come together last season as well and I think we are missing Kylington big time. If we can find a replacement for Stone I think that could helpful turn things around.

The team spent less time as team defending last season and I think the pairings have a lots to do with it.

Cutting the GA down will increase the scoring and that starts with chasing less in our zone and getting a finisher on the 2nd line.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

We can't keep comparing this year to last year it's a different top two lines if we had the same players yes but these are new lines and players. They will have to find their way of building chemistry and dominating.

Plus 61 and two 100 point players are not things you expect yearly that's everything aligning and going perfect.

Our pairings also took awhile to come together last season as well and I think we are missing Kylington big time. If we can find a replacement for Stone I think that could helpful turn things around.

The team spent less time as team defending last season and I think the pairings have a lots to do with it.

Cutting the GA down will increase the scoring and that starts with chasing less in our zone and getting a finisher on the 2nd line.

Yeah I get that, but my point is more so an explanation of what’s going on this season. So for me, I’ve adjusted my expectations. I’m not expecting a 50 win team and that’s fine. As long as this team makes the playoffs and draws the right opponent, they could still win a round.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by getbak

Matthew Phillips sitting on Jakob Pelletier's shoulders while wearing an oversized trench coat.

Halfway there!

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Yeah I get that, but my point is more so an explanation of what’s going on this season. So for me, I’ve adjusted my expectations. I’m not expecting a 50 win team and that’s fine. As long as this team makes the playoffs and draws the right opponent, they could still win a round.

Those expectations seem pretty reasonable, and not a bad recovery from what looked like disaster last summer when Johnny had just left and Tkachuk said he would go, but nonetheless disappointing from the current perspective of a team that is in a win-now mode.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

1) Give the team a real first line. Lindholm and Backlund have given us two excellent second lines and Ruzicka has given us a strong fourth

Huberdeau - Kadri is a start, but Lucic doesn't have the coordination left to pot the 20-25 goals his linemates should be creating for him. I firmly believe Matthew Phillips or Matt Coronato could fill this role, but it comes down to the coaching staff.

2) Get Oliver Kylington back. Not only does that allow us to reunite Zadorov-Weegar, but it gives us a much improved transition attack. More importantly, if we can reduce goals against, that will put us in a better position to pad goal stats with empty netters. And Less responsibility should also open up Weegar's game a little to be more offensive.

If I were Coronato there's zero chance I'd sign in Calgary.

I dunno, it feel likes people really overrate Kylington here. The guy got a third of his points in the month of December last year and was pretty mediocre from that point if I remember correctly.