Too early to panic about Markstrom

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by kevman

That's simply not true.

The Flames are allowing 11.06 HDCA/60 which is good for 6th (But essentially tied for 4th with Seattle and Pittsburgh, 11.04 and 11.03 respectively.) In total shot count they're 4th in the league holding teams to 27.31 SA/60.

Calgary gives up 0.40 HDCA/SA which is pretty average. Carolina is the worst at allowing .45 HDCA/SA and Pittsburgh is the best at 0.33 HDCA/SA.

That’s interesting, thanks

I assumed it would have been higher, on the high danger chance side. My view has perhaps been influenced by some of the epic breakdowns we have seen

[kevman]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

That’s interesting, thanks

I assumed it would have been higher, on the high danger chance side. My view has perhaps been influenced by some of the epic breakdowns we have seen

On the flip side, Calgary's HDCF/SF is 0.34 which is pretty bad, and interestingly tied with Colordao. Montreal is worst at .32 and Tampa is best at .48.

So they're poor shooting percentage is tied to their inability to generate high danger chances but their poor save percentage is on the goalies. Even with an inability to generate high danger chances they're still generating more than they're giving up.

[dino7c]

Last game they gave up a lot but that isn't the norm

[Enoch Root]

There has been a lot of exaggerated narrative with respect to their shots (like the post above that claimed 'over 40 perimeter shots on Tampa'. No, they did not have over 40 perimeter shots.

High danger shots is a really flawed stat, IMO, because there are a LOT of good scoring chances that do no occur from home plate. However, fans see HD vs not HD and conclude only the HD chances are dangerous. There was a sequence in the Tampa game where the Flames had good pressure and took 4 consecutive shots wide open from the slot, but each was just outside the dots, so weren't considered HD. Right after that, they have one of their best chances of the night from just off to the side of the net (Kadri). Also not HD.

Remember the perfect, 'unstoppable' shot from Kopitar? Not HD. Lucic's goal that was called back? Wasn't an HD chance.

Now, do the Flames play a lot from the perimeter? Yes. Are they taking the puck to the front of the net enough right now? No. Are they generating enough Royal Road chances right now? Again, no.

But this narrative that all their shots are perimeter shots is WAY overstated.

Draisaitl scores half his goals from the weak side, most of which are not HD chances.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Yeah, that was my post to which you are referring

I am fully aware that they didn’t have over 40 perimeter shots. They had over 40 shots. Too many were from the perimeter. You kind of have to trust the reader to understand the point. It would be too exhausting to write an essay to get across the completely accurate representation of the entire body of shots. Too many shots from far away, way too many that the goalie can see, and too few that make him move, etc. etc.

And I know you do understand the point because you cover it in the third last paragraph

I do agree that high danger chance definition is flawed. Or limited. And will add that none of the metrics take in to account the overall situation of the defensive team.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by robertsfan

I’m on the bus with the folks who think the Oilers broke Markstrom, or at least his confidence.

Game one against the Oilers was definitely when he lost it. It wasn't like the Oilers scored endlessly on good shots either. The first terrible goal he let in was the start of what has been unreliable play from him ever since. There hasn't ever been a sustained bounce back, which makes me wonder if something went wrong physically or mentally between Dallas game 7 and Edmonton game 1.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Game one against the Oilers was definitely when he lost it. It wasn't like the Oilers scored endlessly on good shots either. The first terrible goal he let in was the start of what has been unreliable play from him ever since. There hasn't ever been a sustained bounce back, which makes me wonder if something went wrong physically or mentally between Dallas game 7 and Edmonton game 1.

The 2 second period goals from Hyman. Both were weak. And they gave the Oilers confidence and momentum for the remainder of the series.

It was 6-1 (5-1?) prior to that, and the Flames were absolutely dominating them.

[GreenLantern2814]

I think Markstrom is this team’s weak link - he’s a good goalie, but he’s not a top-5 goalie in the league. But that’s okay. It’s not a requirement for your goalie to be top-5 to have success. Top-20, sure.

I also think it’s far too early to panic. He hasn’t been great, but it’s a long season. He’ll get there.

His quality start percentage this year is .231 - for his career, it’s .525.

Lots of guys are struggling this year - good thing we have two goalies.

Give Vladar a few more starts and roll with it

[chedder]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

I think Markstrom is this team’s weak link - he’s a good goalie, but he’s not a top-5 goalie in the league.

He most definitely was top 5 last regular season. And he has proven in past seasons that he can be.

That's what so frustrating and why we're all asking what the heck happened to him in the Edmonton series. He has not been the same player since.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by chedder

He most definitely was top 5 last regular season. And he has proven in past seasons that he can be.

That's what so frustrating and why we're all asking what the heck happened to him in the Edmonton series. He has not been the same player since.

He had a great year last year, no question. And I suppose by definition, a Vezina nomination and leading the league in shutouts is top-3 goaltending for that year.

But he’s a career .911 goalie. Outside last season’s 2.22, the best GAA of his career is 2.63.

Miikka Kiprusoff was 2.63 or better in 6 of 9 seasons as a Flame.

Kiprusoff played the game with a dead-eyed calm. You couldn’t rattle him and you couldn’t tell what he was thinking.

During his time in Calgary, there weren’t five goalies I would’ve wanted in net ahead of Kiprusoff. Brodeur and maybe Lundqvist. Maybe.

But not Thomas, not Luongo, Quick, Crawford, Khabibulin, Price, Fleury, Nabokov, Rinne - pick a guy. Not taking them over 34.

Maybe that makes me a homer, but I always felt like those Flames teams let Miikka down more than he did them (outside the Sharks series - he was awful that year. Old Man Curtis Joseph was better, by a lot).

Whereas with Markstrom, there’s a whole laundry list of guys I’d trade him for tomorrow.

Vasilevskiy, Sorokin, Oettinger, Hellebuyck, Saros, Shesterkin, Thompson, Demko.


That’s not a top-5 goalie. It’s top-10, but the difference between top-3, top-5 and top-10 is all between the ears.

Markstrom is an emotional goalie. If love is the death of duty, emotion is the death of effective goaltending. The position requires you to expect everything, be surprised by nothing, and never let them see you bleed.

Markstrom bleeds all over the place, and makes sure you know he’s bloodied. The big stage rattles him, it has since at least the World Junior gold medal game when he made a circus out of himself.

It’s been evident since he got here that Connor McDavid intimidates him, and a great goalie should never be intimidated by anyone.

He’s incredibly talented and physically gifted, but his Achilles heel is the most difficult thing to fix.

[JohnnyB]

Hard to compare Markstrom to Kipper. Kipper was a really special goalie. He would have the occasional bad game, but his mental game was so strong that you could pretty much count on him following a bad game with a shutout in the next outing. There's no goalie in Flames history I would take over Kipper, including Vernon who also probably deserves a spot in the HoF. Markstrom doesn't need to measure up to that. He just needs to get back to being a legit #1.

[I_H8_Crawford]

I am losing faith in Markstrom. Dude is good for 1+ awful goals a game. He is Elliott vs the Ducks bad right now

[Locke]

Originally Posted by I_H8_Crawford

I am losing faith in Markstrom. Dude is good for 1+ awful goals a game. He is Elliott vs the Ducks bad right now

You're not wrong. Is it too early to 'Panic?'

I'm not sure. Realistically the front years of the contract are where you get your value. Would you say that this team is geared to compete right now in the next 3-4 years?

Markstrom is no rookie. He is what he is. Its unlikely that he's going to be getting better, the opposite is more likely.

Like I said, he's not a rookie, this is the finished product.

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by Locke

Like I said, he's not a rookie, this is the finished product.

Yes but what is the finished product? it could be the 9 shutouts/.922 SP last year and .918 on a brutal defensive Vancouver team/Team MVP not that long ago...

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by redmile04

Yes but what is the finished product? it could be the 9 shutouts/.922 SP last year and .918 on a brutal defensive Vancouver team/Team MVP not that long ago...

The finished product is the guy who had six straight seasons with a GAA between 2.63 and 2.77, not the guy who had a career year under one of the best defensive coaches ever in his 32 year old season, right in the heart of what is generally considered a goalie’s prime.

[t0rrent98]

I thinking his lack of training this past summer is what's making him what he is through the first 17 games. I'm hoping he'll get back to mid season form once he figures things out again. If not, the Flames are in tough to make the playoffs. I still believe in him as well as Hubby and Weegar.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

The finished product is the guy who had six straight seasons with a GAA between 2.63 and 2.77, not the guy who had a career year under one of the best defensive coaches ever in his 32 year old season, right in the heart of what is generally considered a goalie’s prime.

GAA is a team stat

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by t0rrent98

I thinking his lack of training this past summer is what's making him what he is through the first 17 games. I'm hoping he'll get back to mid season form once he figures things out again. If not, the Flames are in tough to make the playoffs. I still believe in him as well as Hubby and Weegar.

Where did you hear he had a lack of training this off-season?

[Hockey_Ninja]

Marky is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde this year. He’ll keep the team in games with some great saves and then he’ll give up a weak goal that’ll kill the team’s momentum. The best we can hope for at this point is him making enough saves to win the game. Even if his SV% isn’t great

[TheSquatch]

The freebie goal today shows he's not focused properly, not tracking the game. He had no idea a Panther was going to be on top of him, and that's a really bad sign, I think. Like a quarterback in football, and like driving for a more mundane example, when you are dialled in, you know where everyone is, what they are doing. He doesn't have complete vision right now for some reason, and he's making poor decisions because of it.