This is always how it goes for Russia. Their military completely falls apart in times of peace, war breaks out, they get embarrassed, but historically if the war drags on long enough they get their act together (Or have a revolution)
I just don't see Russia pulling it off this time. The Ukrainians keep getting more organized and access to better equipment. Russia just doesn't seem to have the man power to raise an army, let alone start building the supplies to arm and equip that army.
The situations you're referring to also typically occur when Russia is a being invaded and on the defensive. The Russian/Ukrainian plains are notoriously difficult to move through. Now Russia is trying to move offensively through them, and it'll be winter soon.
The Ukrainians are going to #### this next wave of conscripts so hard it might register on international seismographs. I almost feel bad for them. Almost.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to feel bad for people being forced to die in a senseless war because they didn’t have the means to flee their country before being conscripted.
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No they would gain nothing from it, this is Russia trying to show Germany/the EU how vunerable they are, it is an object lesson in how they cant rely on their pipelines from Norway and the North Sea.
Russia is thrashing around like drunken dumped crazy ex right now, not much of what it is doing is logical or sensible so you can expect a few more dumb moves
I don't think it makes sense for Russia to do it. It's been a strategy of theirs to use energy to entice countries like Germany to relax their foreign policy on Russia. As winter approaches, it would have made strategic sense dangle the pipeline as a carrot to break their resolve. With that plan B out of the equation, countries like Germany have to go all in to end the war as soon as possible. That doesn't serve Russian interests.
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I just don't see Russia pulling it off this time. The Ukrainians keep getting more organized and access to better equipment. Russia just doesn't seem to have the man power to raise an army, let alone start building the supplies to arm and equip that army.
The situations you're referring to also typically occur when Russia is a being invaded and on the defensive. The Russian/Ukrainian plains are notoriously difficult to move through. Now Russia is trying to move offensively through them, and it'll be winter soon.
Oh I totally agree, all I meant was that this level of incompetence isn't/shouldn't be a surprise. We saw it throughout history, even in the 2000's. By no means meant to imply that the longer this goes on, the better for Russia.
I just don't see Russia pulling it off this time. The Ukrainians keep getting more organized and access to better equipment. Russia just doesn't seem to have the man power to raise an army, let alone start building the supplies to arm and equip that army.
The situations you're referring to also typically occur when Russia is a being invaded and on the defensive. The Russian/Ukrainian plains are notoriously difficult to move through. Now Russia is trying to move offensively through them, and it'll be winter soon.
Russia doesn't really need to do offense. If they can hold on to what they have, they will still have achieved one of their main goals, which was a land bridge to Crimea and nearly complete annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk.
I definitely agree that Ukraine has a decent chance to win this, but it's far too soon to count Russia out.
...and yes, they are incompetent, but what Putin is doing makes sense in that situation. Stop trying to make them do competent things and focus on the one part of the numbers game you can actually win.
Russia doesn't really need to do offense. If they can hold on to what they have, they will still have achieved one of their main goals, which was a land bridge to Crimea and nearly complete annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk.
I definitely agree that Ukraine has a decent chance to win this, but it's far too soon to count Russia out.
I'd argue this war was less about land, and more about the threat of a former vassal becoming a prosperous EU aligned country, completely undermining Putin's dictatorship.
Given the absolute supremacy US intelligence has displayed during the entire course (and well before) of this conflict so far, I have no doubt in my mind that the US absolutely knows who did this and why. So, if it were a US ally, likely would have had to have some sort of tacit/ understood consent on completing this action.
Wouldn't be surprised if it was the US.
Right now they are pushing Putin back, which is screwing over China as well, and also Iran is stupid enough to involve themselves, which is also giving the US ability to exert their dominance over the region.
Also drives up natural gas prices in general, which is great for the US economy.
In regards to the mobilization, any chance that Russia is using this as a way to do some ethnic cleansing, and sending 'undesirables' to the front line?
In regards to the mobilization, any chance that Russia is using this as a way to do some ethnic cleansing, and sending 'undesirables' to the front line?
I don't think they are sophisticated enough to pull something like that off; as much as they'd like to.
Right now they are pushing Putin back, which is screwing over China as well, and also Iran is stupid enough to involve themselves, which is also giving the US ability to exert their dominance over the region.
Also drives up natural gas prices in general, which is great for the US economy.
I would seriously question if the US would jeopardize wedging their alliance by destroying infrastructure like this. Consented to someone else doing it, or know which enemy did it I could see... but them outright doing this would be a huge, huge detriment to the alliance structure they've created. The trust that they arent going to take unilateral military action with a dominant military force would evaporate.
IMO it is most likely Russia did this themselves, with an outside chance Poland or a baltic state did it.
This whole thing is such a PR disaster for Russia. Prior to this war, I perceived Russia as a military powerhouse that would be able to use sheer numbers to go toe to toe with any army in the world. I assumed their equipment was a small notch below what the USA has, but comparable.
Now we see the truth. They are an undermanned and undersupplied force that hasn't had meaningful updates in decades. I'd take dozens of modern armies in a 1 vs 1 conflict with them. Taking out less developed nations like Georgia appears to be the limit of their abilities. Even then, they appear to have little ability to hold onto newly acquired territories.
This war has not only exposed Russia, but clearly depleted what forces and equipment they do have, and there's no will or ability within their country to replenish their military.
Honestly makes you think if what we based this belief on was just propaganda in disguise from the USA, to boost their massive defense spending. Fear is a great motivator.
Really makes you think, if Ukraine is doing this well, then NATO as a whole (even possibly without the USA) should be able to take Russia and most countries on (maybe except China). Do countries really need to up their defense spending to meet NATO obligations, or can the USA step it down a notch? Even ff they did, we'd still be an undeniable force. Now China on the other hand.... they are the new Russia, and they are actually building a force, but how effective it is remains to be seen.
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Last edited by BlackArcher101; 09-27-2022 at 02:13 PM.
U.S. sabotage is just ridiculous. They would not jeopardize NATO leadership at the moment when the Russians are floundering and unraveling. Handicapping Germany does not mobilize the Germans to take a more central military aid role; it would do quite the opposite as they would pivot towards economic stability heading into the winter.
I think it's Occam's Razor here, and if not Russia directly, a proxy supporter they can throw under the bus.
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U.S. sabotage is just ridiculous. They would not jeopardize NATO leadership at the moment when the Russians are floundering and unraveling. Handicapping Germany does not mobilize the Germans to take a more central military aid role; it would do quite the opposite as they would pivot towards economic stability heading into the winter.
I think it's Occam's Razor here, and if not Russia directly, a proxy supporter they can throw under the bus.
Why would Russia go through the trouble of destroying something that only benefits them? If they don't want to ship gas to Germany, they can just turn it off on their end. They wouldn't need to actually destroy the pipeline.
With no direct pipeline, they can't hold it over Germany's head anymore. It limits Russian influence in the region even further.
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Well yes, but if we assume Putin is ruthless, short of supplies but not a complete idiot, then this would be the obvious plan, roughly;
Draft 300k men. Divide them into three batches.
The first batch just gets thrown to the grinder. 100k new men should be more than enough to make sure Ukraine doesn't advance much before the winter, considering the front currently has something like 100-200k Russians. This first batch gets basically no supplies, there's no real need. These guys aren't supposed to last. Besides, at this point the Ukrainian civilians still have supplies, the Russians soldiers can just take them. It speeds up the ethnic cleansing quite nicely too. The primary need is for these guys to be at the front today, this week, this month. Beyond that it doesn't matter, mudseason will have arrived and that will put a stop to any quick advances. If these guys become POW's, that doesn't really matter either. Tens of thousands of POW's are going to just be a big drain on Ukrainian logistics, and processing them takes a lot of time and manpower. If the Ukrainians start treating them poorly because of frustration or lack of resources, all the better, that's a propaganda win.
Use the time the first batch buys to train the second batch a little. Then throw them to the grinder to make sure the line holds through the winter. This batch is supposed to last the winter, so they get what ever winter gear you might have. The families of these guys will also have time to round up some winter gear.
That should buy you a good six months to train the third batch of 100k men for spring, when the decisive fights are likely to happen. You also now have months to find gear for these guys, and once again the families of the soldiers will probably do much of that. It also gives a lot of time for the West to start forgetting the war and cut down on their support.
It's kind of basic logic, if you just remove any humanity from the equation. Use what you have lots of (human lives) to save on what you have a shortage of (equipment and time).
This could very well work.
You forgot to add this. Putin gets to the USA mid-terms where the Republicans take back the house and hold up any further financing of equipment for Ukraine. That would put Ukraine in a bind and entirely in the hands of Europe to finance the war until 2024 at minimum.
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Honestly makes you think if what we based this belief on was just propaganda in disguise from the USA, to boost their massive defense spending. Fear is a great motivator.
Really makes you think, if Ukraine is doing this well, then NATO as a whole (even possibly without the USA) should be able to take Russia and most countries on (maybe except China). Do countries really need to up their defense spending to meet NATO obligations, or can the USA step it down a notch? Even ff they did, we'd still be an undeniable force. Now China on the other hand.... they are the new Russia, and they are actually building a force, but how effective it is remains to be seen.
Oddly enough this exact thought occurred to me today as well.
When I think of the astronomical amount of money spent on military defence spending with the primary motivator being the fear of the Russians or Russian influence...
Its pretty staggering and...we were afraid of that?? Really?
And I came to the same conclusion, does Canada really need to up its Defence budget to our NATO quota?
I mean, we have something of a land dispute with Russia regarding Arctic Sovereignty but I doubt they're going to be in much of a position to push that issue any time in the near future.
At the moment it seems more likely we only need to concern ourselves about illegal immigration/refugees trying to flee Russia to Canada via the Arctic.
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Why would Russia go through the trouble of destroying something that only benefits them? If they don't want to ship gas to Germany, they can just turn it off on their end. They wouldn't need to actually destroy the pipeline.
With no direct pipeline, they can't hold it over Germany's head anymore. It limits Russian influence in the region even further.
Because they want Germany to panic and capitulate on a Euro-centric NATO role, and as the largest economy.
They can also inflict pain on Europe through non-military means. Economy-stunting is very much a tool in war.
We'll just have to see what becomes of this. It's most certainly not the US, NATO, or a Ukrainian ally unless they are playing a fools game.
Sure, if you ignore the estimated 60,000-100,000 Americans who fled their country (mostly to Canada and Sweden) to avoid being drafted during the Vietnam war.
