[News] With the 13th OA pick the Flames select RW Matthew Coronato

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Kobasew went unselected in his first year of draft eligibility before being inexplicably taken high in the first round as a 19-year-old. Dunno if I see the comparison.

These days, Kobasew would've been a second-round pick at best.

I used to pour over draft data and prospects, and I don't think i realized Kobasew was an over ager until you said it. Wow. He had a killer season in BCHL and not bad at BC. A few AHL seasons looked promising, but overall....yeah....wish he could have been more.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Dustin Boyd in his draft year scored 0.53 ppg in the WHL, for an NHLe of 13 points.

Coronato in his draft year scored 1.67 ppg in the USHL, for an NHLe of 37.

They're not equivalent prospects at all, and it is quite silly of you to try to portray them as such.

I agree with SeanCharles. The Flames need to keep as many of their promising pieces as they can. Coronato is as safe a bet as anyone in the system. Barring injuries, he should at least make the NHL at some point, and he could become an impact player.

It's your game but is his drop in NHLe to 24.3 in his D+1 significant?

Boyd's NHLe went up to 22.9 in his D+1 He also was 8 months younger than Coronato in D+1.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, ricardodw is, but that is his shtick, and he should (as usual) be ignored.


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Please point out 1 disparaging remark I have made towards Coronato.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Please point out 1 disparaging remark I have made towards Coronato.

This passive aggressive manner in which you post is also your shtick. Everyone has been on to you for years. Once the Flames get on a roll and start winning games this season you will quietly disappear as usual.

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[TheScorpion]

I just know for a fact Coronato has a low RGI score.

[Monahammer]

Ricardow is unfairly catching blame here, which is not frequently the case as it's usually deserved. But I very clearly started the snowball rolling against Coronato last page by saying that I don't think his offense will translate at the NHL level. I actually see a similar issue with Dube's offensive production. Their games rely on attributes that they overmatch junior/college level opponents with (strength, quickness, grit, effort) but those advantages are mostly removed at the nhl level as they form an almost baseline of making it to the league, especially for two guys who aren't growing past league average at best.

I like the concept of focusing on work hard guys but IMO they are ultimately limited as they don't have stand out skills that place them above their peers at the top level. Coronato's shot is an example of this: it's remarked as one of his top attributes, but it is firmly average in terms of NHL quality attributes. I just don't see the trajectory that takes him to say Cole Caufield level.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Ricardow is unfairly catching blame here, which is not frequently the case as it's usually deserved. But I very clearly started the snowball rolling against Coronato last page by saying that I don't think his offense will translate at the NHL level. I actually see a similar issue with Dube's offensive production. Their games rely on attributes that they overmatch junior/college level opponents with (strength, quickness, grit, effort) but those advantages are mostly removed at the nhl level as they form an almost baseline of making it to the league, especially for two guys who aren't growing past league average at best.

I like the concept of focusing on work hard guys but IMO they are ultimately limited as they don't have stand out skills that place them above their peers at the top level. Coronato's shot is an example of this: it's remarked as one of his top attributes, but it is firmly average in terms of NHL quality attributes. I just don't see the trajectory that takes him to say Cole Caufield level.

The blame is well deserved. Comparing Coronato to Dustin Boyd was unfair and inaccurate. It's fine to think Coronato won't make it, but one needs to explain why, in a way that counters NHLe, Bader, etc.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Ricardow is unfairly catching blame here, which is not frequently the case as it's usually deserved. But I very clearly started the snowball rolling against Coronato last page by saying that I don't think his offense will translate at the NHL level. I actually see a similar issue with Dube's offensive production. Their games rely on attributes that they overmatch junior/college level opponents with (strength, quickness, grit, effort) but those advantages are mostly removed at the nhl level as they form an almost baseline of making it to the league, especially for two guys who aren't growing past league average at best.

I like the concept of focusing on work hard guys but IMO they are ultimately limited as they don't have stand out skills that place them above their peers at the top level. Coronato's shot is an example of this: it's remarked as one of his top attributes, but it is firmly average in terms of NHL quality attributes. I just don't see the trajectory that takes him to say Cole Caufield level.

To counter that perspective I would point towards Mangiapane scoring 35 goals at the NHL level in a way that you have described does not translate to high end NHL success. I also think you are seriously diminishing his skillset to begin with.

You don't produce the best goalscoring season in USHL history with 57 goals in 59 games by simply working hard in your draft year, nor do you lead your collegiate division in goalscoring as a true freshmen without having any standout skill. I think the fact that he has such a strong work ethic and desire to improve only further increases the likely hood of him becoming an impact player.

[dustygoon]

Jake Guenztel is a good comparable. Similar late birthday, size, in USHL in draft year and good first year of college. But we can find other guys with that profile who flamed out.

Not sure why/how we debate if Coronato translates to NHL. But why not just let it play out? You could trade him now, but then shouldn't we then think about trading all of our prospects who have good numbers after we draft them?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Jake Guenztel is a good comparable. Similar late birthday, size, in USHL in draft year and good first year of college. But we can find other guys with that profile who flamed out.

Not sure why/how we debate if Coronato translates to NHL. But why not just let it play out? You could trade him now, but then shouldn't we then think about trading all of our prospects who have good numbers after we draft them?

Agreed.

My take with prospects is to be pleased with their progression, but not to read anything into it.

It's great that Coronato had such a good WJC tournament, and I am encouraged that this could bode well for his future as a NHL player. It most likely also doesn't mean anything, which should be precisely the point when attempting to compare him to Dustin Freaking Boyd.

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[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It's your game but is his drop in NHLe to 24.3 in his D+1 significant?

It's not ideal for his NHLe to drop but the change of leagues and his age relative to NCAA peers plays a role in that. Plus the drop isn't as big as you suggest - Byron Bader at NHLES.COM had the drop from 38 to 33. 33 is still really strong D+1 production for a first time NCAA player.

Historically that level of NCAA production for a True Freshman is still trending in the right direction.

Look at picks from the same draft year:

Beniers: 43 points in 37 games (2nd NCAA season, 24 in 24 in his first season)
Johnson: 37 points in 32 games (2nd NCAA season, 27 in 26 in his first season)
Coronato: 36 points in 34 games (1st NCAA season)

Johnson had 9 points in 7 games at the WJC. Coronato had 7 points in 5 games.

Beniers and Johnson had really similar production, and both of those guys looked good in limited NHL time last season. Coronato's progression and development is a lot closer to those two than it is to Dustin Boyd. Those two are already penciled in to be NHLers next season.

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This passive aggressive manner in which you post is also your shtick. Everyone has been on to you for years. Once the Flames get on a roll and start winning games this season you will quietly disappear as usual.

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Haha, you know you have a weak argument when you have to go all the way back to Dustin Boyd to make a (poor) point.

[Jiri Hrdina]

To me there is a lot of reason to be optimistic about Coronato. But when I say that, my optimism is that he will be a good 2nd line offensive winger. He could play up the line-up more, and could compliment 1st liners well, but I don't think he will be a true 1st line player. But if you get a quality 2nd liner scorer at that draft position, you've done well.

To me he's got a pretty good hockey sense, but not elite. He's got a good shot and strong, but not elite, agility.
So you've got probably above average skills in some areas, but nothing truly elite. But what you do have is a high level of compete. And a guy that looks like he will play a 2 way game to some extent.

That's a good combination of attributes.

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I used to pour over draft data and prospects, and I don't think i realized Kobasew was an over ager until you said it. Wow. He had a killer season in BCHL and not bad at BC. A few AHL seasons looked promising, but overall....yeah....wish he could have been more.

TheScorpion is totally incorrect about Chuck Kobasew. He was drafted his first year of eligibility, as you could opt out a year at a the time for college or college bound players. He was never passed over and suddenly became a 1st rounded. And yes despite being 19 on draft day the year he was drafted as his 18th year old year .

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

TheScorpion is totally incorrect about Chuck Kobasew. He was drafted his first year of eligibility, as you could opt out a year at a the time for college or college bound players. He was never passed over and suddenly became a 1st rounded. And yes despite being 19 on draft day the year he was drafted as his 18th year old year .

Dany Heatley was the same (I think)

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Dany Heatley was the same (I think)

It was common place at the time, TheScorpion didn't bother to do any research whatsoever.

Rick DiPietro famously opted in months before the 2000 draft.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I like the concept of focusing on work hard guys but IMO they are ultimately limited as they don't have stand out skills that place them above their peers at the top level. Coronato's shot is an example of this: it's remarked as one of his top attributes, but it is firmly average in terms of NHL quality attributes. I just don't see the trajectory that takes him to say Cole Caufield level.

Is there objective data that supports this assessment or is this your opinion?

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by FormerPresJamesTaylor

It was common place at the time, TheScorpion didn't bother to do any research whatsoever.

Rick DiPietro famously opted in months before the 2000 draft.

Or, you could have just said, "here's a piece of information you might not have known, it contradicts what you said about this."

But maybe being standoffish is just your thing.

[TheScorpion]

Also, the point about Kobasew still stands. These days, someone with that level of BCHL production at age 17 or NCAA production at age 18 would probably be a second-round pick. From that standpoint, I don't see the comparison with Coronato.

[Superfraggle]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

To say that someone was paid to write a piece is not a valid argument that the piece has any value as fact, as opinion, or as argument. The dollar is not a unit of truth or reason.

The dollar is a unit of value...