[News] With the 13th OA pick the Flames select RW Matthew Coronato

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Look, I'm a writer myself

Lol it’s this true?

Who do you write for? I am honestly in disbelief after reading some of your posts here

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Mull

Lol it’s this true?

Who do you write for? I am honestly in disbelief after reading some of your posts here

Insult noted; though frankly, considering the source, I take it as a compliment. The answer is that it's none of your business. I keep my professional life entirely separate from this place, and for good reason.

Side point: I would be very foolish to take critique on writing from someone capable of posting ‘Lol it's this true?’

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Insult noted; though frankly, considering the source, I take it as a compliment. The answer is that it's none of your business. I keep my professional life entirely separate from this place, and for good reason.

Side point: I would be very foolish to take critique on writing from someone capable of posting ‘Lol it's this true?’

My grammar sucks… but I write reports, emails and produce PowerPoints. I am not in the industry as you describe in the previous post. I am also lazy and this isn’t work -I don’t normally double check my posts (but I did just ninja edit a your and you’re ha)

But- I actually wasn’t insulting your grammar - it seems fine. If I was reading a report you made my eyebrows would not be raised other than you’re not concise.

Anyway, I was surprised that you wrote for a living based on the arguments you formulate and their lack of footing.

But hey - minds think differently and sometimes ones persons logic base doesn’t jive with another. I can easily admit that perhaps I just think differently then you so I think you consistently have weak arguments when they actually just don’t relate to me.

[Freeway]

Reasonable people are able to disagree on opinions. I bet if you put five scouts at the same game, you'd get varied opinions on a player based on their lived experience and the types of player traits they skew towards.


Sometimes I really disagree with Corey on players, but the guy definitely puts in the work so I respect his opinions even if I don't agree with them.

[Jay Random]

I have no strong opinion about Pronman one way or the other. But if the best argument in favour of his work is that he gets paid for it, then there really is no argument in his favour at all. It doesn't make him right or rational or even well-informed, because plenty of people get paid to write pure clickbait.

In this particular field, I save most of my respect for those writers who not only use computer models, but reveal how those models work and discuss them with other analysts and with interested members of the public. A proprietary model is a pig in a poke, especially when one doesn't see much retrospective evaluation of the results.

Guys like JFresh and Bader are seen working to improve the predictive power of their models based on actual results, and that is something I can respect. Pronman mostly isn't seen at all unless you happen to subscribe to the Athletic, and nobody seems to have much to say about how his model works or even whether it has worked in the past. I am naturally suspicious of the value of such work.

[timbit]

Coronato excels at two of the 3 most most valued assets a prospect can possess:

1) excellent natural goal scorer / point producer.

2) excellent hockey sense

3) good /very good skater.

[Eb0la11]

Coronato will be an impact player in the NHL. A top 3-4 forward on most teams in terms of offensive contribution.

[Reggie Dunlop]

At least he's getting a Harvard education.

[Eb0la11]

Best comparison is mike cammalleri

[AC]

Originally Posted by Eb0la11

Best comparison is mike cammalleri

I was thinking that too actually.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Eb0la11

Coronato will be an impact player in the NHL. A top 3-4 forward on most teams in terms of offensive contribution.

Speaking of computer models, just today I was reading an article by Chace McCallum which suggests, on the basis of pretty strong correlations in the data, that NHL scouts are underrating the value of offensive production by prospects. Players with a very high NHLe in their draft year tend to overperform compared to the average for their draft position, those with a low NHLe tend to underperform.

It reminds me of the situation in MLB scouting when Moneyball was written. Scouts were trying to assess whether players had the tools that meant they ought to perform well at the MLB level. Billy Beane looked at whether they actually did perform at the level where they were playing. It turned out that he was right a lot more often than the scouts were. MLB teams were underrating counting stats, just as NHL teams have been doing more recently.

Coronato's NHLe isn't off the charts, but it's exceptionally good for a late 1st-round pick. That suggests a good probability that he'll outperform his draft position. Patrick Bacon at TopDownHockey, after Coronato's draft year, gave him a 45% chance of being a star and 84% chance of being an NHLer. Only three rated prospects from that draft year had higher star probabilities: Eklund, Sillinger, and Guenther. That seems to me to be a reasonably well-founded assessment. (Incidentally, I like Bacon's formula for determining who counts as a star.)

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Speaking of computer models, just today I was reading an article by Chace McCallum which suggests, on the basis of pretty strong correlations in the data, that NHL scouts are underrating the value of offensive production by prospects. Players with a very high NHLe in their draft year tend to overperform compared to the average for their draft position, those with a low NHLe tend to underperform.

It reminds me of the situation in MLB scouting when Moneyball was written. Scouts were trying to assess whether players had the tools that meant they ought to perform well at the MLB level. Billy Beane looked at whether they actually did perform at the level where they were playing. It turned out that he was right a lot more often than the scouts were. MLB teams were underrating counting stats, just as NHL teams have been doing more recently.

Coronato's NHLe isn't off the charts, but it's exceptionally good for a late 1st-round pick. That suggests a good probability that he'll outperform his draft position. Patrick Bacon at TopDownHockey, after Coronato's draft year, gave him a 45% chance of being a star and 84% chance of being an NHLer. Only three rated prospects from that draft year had higher star probabilities: Eklund, Sillinger, and Guenther. That seems to me to be a reasonably well-founded assessment. (Incidentally, I like Bacon's formula for determining who counts as a star.)

Giving up on Martin St Louis comes to mind...

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Eb0la11

Best comparison is mike cammalleri

He reminds me a lot of Joe Pavelski too.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Eb0la11

Best comparison is mike cammalleri

Dustin Boyd at the same age had a very similar WJC

[SeanCharles]

I hope we keep Coronato, Pelletier, Wolf and Zary.

Hell I hope we keep Ruzicka, Poirier and this years 1st as well.

At the end of the day no one can say for certain how a player will turn out cause there are so many factors at play (injuries, drive, character, opportunity, work ethic etc.).

I think it’s just important to hang onto as many of the promising pieces you have as you can because you may find a Mangiapane or an Andersson or a Kylington.

Who cares what some guy who writes for the Athletic said. Guys like him have been wrong many times before even when their assessments reflected strongly on our prospects.

It’s a crap shoot and determining who will make the hardest hockey league in the world will never be an exact science anyways.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Dustin Boyd at the same age had a very similar WJC

Dustin Boyd in his draft year scored 0.53 ppg in the WHL, for an NHLe of 13 points.

Coronato in his draft year scored 1.67 ppg in the USHL, for an NHLe of 37.

They're not equivalent prospects at all, and it is quite silly of you to try to portray them as such.

I agree with SeanCharles. The Flames need to keep as many of their promising pieces as they can. Coronato is as safe a bet as anyone in the system. Barring injuries, he should at least make the NHL at some point, and he could become an impact player.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Speaking of computer models, just today I was reading an article by Chace McCallum which suggests, on the basis of pretty strong correlations in the data, that NHL scouts are underrating the value of offensive production by prospects. Players with a very high NHLe in their draft year tend to overperform compared to the average for their draft position, those with a low NHLe tend to underperform.

It reminds me of the situation in MLB scouting when Moneyball was written. Scouts were trying to assess whether players had the tools that meant they ought to perform well at the MLB level. Billy Beane looked at whether they actually did perform at the level where they were playing. It turned out that he was right a lot more often than the scouts were. MLB teams were underrating counting stats, just as NHL teams have been doing more recently.

Coronato's NHLe isn't off the charts, but it's exceptionally good for a late 1st-round pick. That suggests a good probability that he'll outperform his draft position. Patrick Bacon at TopDownHockey, after Coronato's draft year, gave him a 45% chance of being a star and 84% chance of being an NHLer. Only three rated prospects from that draft year had higher star probabilities: Eklund, Sillinger, and Guenther. That seems to me to be a reasonably well-founded assessment. (Incidentally, I like Bacon's formula for determining who counts as a star.)

I don't consider 13th overall as a late 1st round pick. He's as close to top 10 as he is to mid-1st round.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Weird to hear people downplay Coronato after having a great world jr where his game was widely praised. Feels like hot takery at best. Uninformed nonsense at worst.

Is anyone really downplaying Coronato? I think some disagree with Pronman putting him 4th. I think you can make a very good case why Wolf and Pelletier would be ahead of him and I'm not nearly en expert enough in scouting nor have I watched the players enough to debate whether Zary should be ahead of him or behind him. I suppose you could look at Zary's first AHL season as disappointing but he wouldn't be the first good junior player to struggle in his first pro season. I don't put a lot of stock in WJC performances as it's a small sample size so while Coronato had a decent tournament I'm not so sure he's a slam dunk at the pro level. This is all opinion stuff at the end of the day and the reality is that the Flames will be lucky if one of two of these players turn into longtime NHL players.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Is anyone really downplaying Coronato? I think some disagree with Pronman putting him 4th. I think you can make a very good case why Wolf and Pelletier would be ahead of him and I'm not nearly en expert enough in scouting nor have I watched the players enough to debate whether Zary should be ahead of him or behind him. I suppose you could look at Zary's first AHL season as disappointing but he wouldn't be the first good junior player to struggle in his first pro season. I don't put a lot of stock in WJC performances as it's a small sample size so while Coronato had a decent tournament I'm not so sure he's a slam dunk at the pro level. This is all opinion stuff at the end of the day and the reality is that the Flames will be lucky if one of two of these players turn into longtime NHL players.

And he got injured in training camp and had a late start to his season.

Big year for him coming up though. Hopefully he has better luck.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Is anyone really downplaying Coronato?

Well, ricardodw is, but that is his shtick, and he should (as usual) be ignored.


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