[Trade] Toffoli to Flames for 2022 1st *, 2023 5th, Heineman, and Pitlick

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Freeway

Not to pick on anybody, but Calgary's elevation is a lot higher than, say, Los Angeles, Vancouver or Montreal, and Sutter's teams play with a ton of pace. I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest that perhaps it was something Toffoli wasn't used to (on both counts).

I 100% think his conditioning was a factor. Sutter will give him a training regimen for the summer and he'll be in great shape for camp, as we saw with other players after his first half season into a full season. A full training camp at elevation will put him where he needs to be. I've seen Toffoli play enough other games to see his trouble having keeping up with the play was unique to the Flames.

If I were taking bets I think you see a much better player for us in the fall. Hence why evaluating a trade right now that still has 2 more years of service in store is foolish.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

From some quick hunting around it looks like there's about a 45% chance a pick in this range plays a significant amount of games (still not a star but makes it)

Even if the Habs draft a guy that plays 150 games the Flames still get more value out of Toffoli than a tweener at the end of the first round.

Then there's the Montreal would have picked a different player than Calgary would have noise that makes the loop endless.

Bottom line pointless to call it a lost trade, or a likely lost trade, when the math actually suggests it's more than likely that's not the case.

The odds are pretty good that the Flames do just fine in this one ... especially if they move Toffoli at the end of his contract and recoup some assets.

To add to this, that 45% is likely to be much lower this year with a very weak draft class. I think it will be hard for that pick to have a much bigger impact than Toffoli, especially in the near future when the team is ready to compete.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The Flames have traded their first round pick 3 times in the last 10 years. I wouldn't call that "regularly". You talk like they're doing it every other year and barely draft in the first round.

Plus in one of those years they had 3 first rounders. Wasted them on Poirier and Klimchuk but still had them.

Their failings were:

2012: moving down to get Janko instead of one of Teravainen, Vasilevksy, Hertl

2013: Missing on Burakovsky/Theodore

That's about it.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

To add to this, that 45% is likely to be much lower this year with a very weak draft class. I think it will be hard for that pick to have a much bigger impact than Toffoli, especially in the near future when the team is ready to compete.

Time will tell, but for that pick to come back and haunt the Flames a rookie GM is going to have to nail it.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

Thanks Freud, but I'm not wrong.

You throw away first rounders you screw over the next 10 years, fact.



(by screw over, I'm not implying doomed. I just mean it's hurting out future more than its helping our present)

You keep using that word.
I do not think it means what you think means...

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by Inferno

The Flames have traded their first round pick 3 times in the last 10 years. I wouldn't call that "regularly". You talk like they're doing it every other year and barely draft in the first round.

3 in the last 5.

4 in the last 10

5 in the last 12


the 3 in the last 5 is what concerns me the most.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

3 in the last 6.

4 in the last 10

5 in the last 12


the 3 in the last 6 is what concerns me the most.

One of those was to get Hamilton
We all hate the Hamonic deal

[sketchyt]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

3 in the last 6.

4 in the last 10

5 in the last 12


the 3 in the last 6 is what concerns me the most.

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

One of those was to get Hamilton
We all hate the Hamonic deal

I'm not counting that in the last 3 out of 5.

It's like this: https://www.matchsticksandgasoline.c...-toffoli-trade

but they are forgetting 2020.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

3 in the last 5.

4 in the last 10

5 in the last 12


the 3 in the last 5 is what concerns me the most.

I think your math is off:

2022: Traded away;
2021: Picked 13th overall;
2020: Picked 24th overall;
2019: Picked 26th overall;
2018: Traded away;
2017: Picked 16th overall;
2016: Picked 6th overall.
2015: Traded away;
2014: Picked 4th overall;
2013: Picked 6th, 22nd and 28th overall; and
2012: Picked 21st overall.

That is 2/7 traded away, or 3/11.


If you are counting trading down to recoup other picks that should be the opposite, as it is trading for the future, by getting more picks.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

I'm not counting that in the last 3 out of 5.

It's like this: https://www.matchsticksandgasoline.c...-toffoli-trade

but they are forgetting 2020.

Would like to know how this stacks up against the rest of the league.

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

I think your math is off:

2022: Traded away;
2021: Picked 13th overall;
2020: Picked 24th overall;
2019: Picked 26th overall;
2018: Traded away;
2017: Picked 16th overall;
2016: Picked 6th overall.
2015: Traded away;
2014: Picked 4th overall;
2013: Picked 6th, 22nd and 28th overall; and
2012: Picked 21st overall.

That is 2/7 traded away, or 3/11.


If you are counting trading down to recoup other picks that should be the opposite, as it is trading for the future, by getting more picks.

Look I'm sorry man but Schnieder is already one of the most valuable prospects in the NHL and on the verge of becoming a 21 year old impact NHLer, RHD.

Basically what we were missing when we lost these playoffs.

We can say it's too early to tell and whatever, but the writing's on the wall when Schnieder, a D, beats Zary, a forward, to the NHL and makes big contributions to boot.


Let's not even pretend we don't know what the value is of an effective 20 year old RHD NHLer, and what the projection/ceiling is on that.


No need for a rant, it's more than a valid count, and looks a little worse each year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

I'm not counting that in the last 3 out of 5.

It's like this: https://www.matchsticksandgasoline.c...-toffoli-trade

but they are forgetting 2020.

Ridiculous. So, you are counting two picks in the same draft among your three even though the Flames never at any point had more than one first round pick in 2020, and did, in fact, draft in the first round, while simultaneously adding two additional picks?

Out of one side of your mouth you preach about the importance of drafting, while out of the other side of your mouth you denounce an actual instance in which the Flames maximized the value of their pick by increasing their draft odds. This is so disingenuous.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Wait we are counting trading down now?
That doesn’t align or have relevance to any of your points

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Ridiculous. So, you are counting two picks in the same draft among your three even though the Flames never at any point had more than one first round pick in 2020, and did, in fact, draft in the first round, while simultaneously adding two additional picks?

Out of one side of your mouth you preach about the importance of drafting, while out of the other side of your mouth you denounce an actual instance in which the Flames maximized the value of their pick by increasing their draft odds. This is so disingenuous.

1: I don't type with my mouth, and you shouldn't either

2: Don't forget #1, this is really important.

3: If you think I was upset about this trade, you should have seen me when BT did that in 2020. It was on another forum, I was livid. Let's just save another 10 pages, I've done my homework, BT did not understand the difference between those spots and dramatically reduced our prospect value when he sold that pick imho. Sure maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right, whatever...either way there's justification behind it and you're kidding yourself if you think there isn't.

4. Selling a first rounder is selling a first rounder. Every time it happens, people cry that it's an exception. So if you think 2020 was an exception, great. that's just like all the others.

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Wait we are counting trading down now?
That doesn’t align or have relevance to any of your points

We have been talking about selling first round picks for a few days now. Just to be clear, that's what they did in 2020.

And they did it to forfeit a bluechip RHD, so they could get yet another forward to add to their long list of LHS forwards.

Yeah trading down counts, that's how the draft works. The better players are ranked higher. when you trade down, you get worse players (as ranked). so yeah that's how that works.

I khow...I know...but it was an "exception"

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

Look I'm sorry man but Schnieder is already one of the most valuable prospects in the NHL and on the verge of becoming a 21 year old impact NHLer, RHD.

Basically what we were missing when we lost these playoffs.

We can say it's too early to tell and whatever, but the writing's on the wall when Schnieder, a D, beats Zary, a forward, to the NHL and makes big contributions to boot.


Let's not even pretend we don't know what the value is of an effective 20 year old RHD NHLer, and what the projection/ceiling is on that.


No need for a rant, it's more than a valid count, and looks a little worse each year.

I most certainly didn't rant. You just like to change your argument when someone points out the holes in it.
All good - you do you.

I found this interesting:

Defenseman A:
An outstanding offensive defenseman, he is a natural with the puck and a great power-play quarterback option at any level. Loves to jump up into the play and act as a fourth forward on the ice. Also owns fairly projectable size. Needs a lot of work as a defender, including his coverage skills when he does not have the puck as well as his overall positioning. Could also stand to utilize his body more to deter opponents from setting up shop in the attacking zone. Is somewhat raw and unrefined as a defenseman but oozes talent and point production.
Long Range Potential: Raw, talented offensive defenseman with good upside.

Defenseman B:
Has the size, skating ability, right-handed shot, poise and defensive chops to play big minutes at the National Hockey League level (for a very long time). Does not have high-end offensive acumen but that does not prevent him from logging a ton of ice time in all game situations. Also displays a physical side to his game that helps his team win hockey games. He may not be the prototypical "modern-day" defenseman, but NHL teams cannot win Stanley Cups without his type.
Long Range Potential: Big, solid shutdown defenseman.

Defenseman B reminds me of Tanev, while Defenseman A reminds me of a Fox type (NOT a direct comparison, just a type).

I bet you can guess who they are, but if you can't, see below.

NSFW!

Defenseman A: Jeremie Poirier

Defenseman B: Braden Schneider.

We don't draft Poirier AND Zary without trading down. AND we added another arrow in Boltman by doing so.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by jjgallow

We have been talking about selling first round picks for a few days now. Just to be clear, that's what they did in 2020.

And they did it to forfeit a bluechip RHD, so they could get yet another forward to add to their long list of LHS forwards.

Yeah trading down counts, that's how the draft works. The better players are ranked higher. when you trade down, you get worse players (as ranked). so yeah that's how that works.

I khow...I know...but it was an "exception"

Pretty dubious claim here there’s a number of examples in every draft this is not the case.

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

I most certainly didn't rant.

Sorry, I didn't meant to accuse you of ranting, what I meant was, let's not rant about it

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

You just like to change your argument when someone points out the holes in it.
All good - you do you.

I found this interesting:

Defenseman A:
An outstanding offensive defenseman, he is a natural with the puck and a great power-play quarterback option at any level. Loves to jump up into the play and act as a fourth forward on the ice. Also owns fairly projectable size. Needs a lot of work as a defender, including his coverage skills when he does not have the puck as well as his overall positioning. Could also stand to utilize his body more to deter opponents from setting up shop in the attacking zone. Is somewhat raw and unrefined as a defenseman but oozes talent and point production.
Long Range Potential: Raw, talented offensive defenseman with good upside.

Defenseman B:
Has the size, skating ability, right-handed shot, poise and defensive chops to play big minutes at the National Hockey League level (for a very long time). Does not have high-end offensive acumen but that does not prevent him from logging a ton of ice time in all game situations. Also displays a physical side to his game that helps his team win hockey games. He may not be the prototypical "modern-day" defenseman, but NHL teams cannot win Stanley Cups without his type.
Long Range Potential: Big, solid shutdown defenseman.

Defenseman B reminds me of Tanev, while Defenseman A reminds me of a Fox type (NOT a direct comparison, just a type).

I bet you can guess who they are, but if you can't, see below.

NSFW!

Defenseman A: Jeremie Poirier

Defenseman B: Braden Schneider.

We don't draft Poirier AND Zary without trading down. AND we added another arrow in Boltman by doing so.

ok well now you kind of have.

Hey I like Poirier. he's ok... got a long ways to go but whatever. if we liked him so much we could have traded any journeyman to get him. didn't need to forfeit Schneider, sorry that was just weird. Will we see Poirier in the NHL? dunno..rooting for him in the AHL.

Zary...what was that pick

[jjgallow]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Pretty dubious claim here there’s a number of examples in every draft this is not the case.

well true, like when you look at the players TO drafts high (jokes).

Hey man people been saying here for 30 pages "ah it's only a 26th pick it's like worthless"

But when we trade down a mid-first and give up a blue-chip D to do it, people be like "but look at all the low ranking picks we got"