Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If they don't keep him the money will be spent elsewhere

If Johnny leaves, I don't think it will have anything to do with not being offered enough by Calgary.
It will be because he wants to live and play elsewhere.

[Mr.Coffee]

Losing Johnny because you won't go to 11 because you're stuck at 9.5 would be idiocy of the highest order. Calgary is not doing any damage without Gaudreau. They need Gaudreau. Now is not the time for strong arm tactics haha

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

If Johnny leaves, I don't think it will have anything to do with not being offered enough by Calgary.
It will be because he wants to live and play elsewhere.

People keep saying this but it's based on what exactly? Disagree. We don't really know but money will be a factor. Almost guaranteed it will.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

We wouldn’t, but some owners might not want to spend the additional 14-16m in a 7/8 year span. I most certainly hope we aren’t lowballing our superstar winger.

Do we really think this is about money at this point, for either side? No one knows for sure, but I'm guessing the Flames are willing to pay, and Johnny knows he's getting paid regardless.

This is about WHERE Johnny wants to be. And it's likely a where conversation around where he'd like to play out the rest of his years (location) AND where does he think is most likely a winner can be built around / with him. Johnny's likely weighing Calgary out against other places he realistically thinks (or might know) will come to the table with a monetary offer that will be good enough. And if those are the factors left to decide for Johnny, makes sense he'll take as much time as is afforded to him to figure it out. Meaning, if we want a decision from him before the last minute, the Flames will have to impose their own internal deadline if we need to know sooner, because why wouldn't you take as much time as you can to make a huge life decision for yourself?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

It's actually July 13th. I made the same mistake when I said he's got a month, it's two weeks.

Oops, was thinking about last year.

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yep. Seravalli on 960 this morning saying the Flames made their pitch and the Gaudreau side has gone silent. He equated it to asking someone to marry you and when there is no answer, just a long pause, you already know the answer. Sounds like he's going to test free agency.

Weird analogy. If a negotiation goes: 'Proposal --> Proposal Accepted' then somebody screwed up big time.

Silence is a legitimate and potentially effective negotiating tactic

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Did you hear the interview? He's not stirring the pot as they went over a lot of other offseason trade rumours and at the end of the segment Boomer asked him about Gaudreau. His answer is exactly what he's heard through his channels so hardly stirring the pot. I think he was trying to be as nice as possible while saying he thinks Gaudreau is gone.

Come on. What channels? I wasn't being dick about it. He's saying something when there isn't much info, he gets clicks and gets on the radio. Tedious much?

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You were dismissive of Seravalli and I informed you he's the premier NHL insider. Overreact much?

Thank you your excellency.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Come on. What channels? I wasn't being dick about it. He's saying something when there isn't much info, he gets clicks and gets on the radio. Tedious much?

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Thank you your excellency.

Man some of you are not handling this situation well at all. There's nothing on my reply to you implying you were being a dick.

[Zulu29]

Well if in fact the Flames made their offer and Johnny’s side went radio silence that really sucks. Still hold out some hope he’ll re-sign but things don’t appear to be going that smoothly.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

People keep saying this but it's based on what exactly? Disagree. We don't really know but money will be a factor. Almost guaranteed it will.

I'm just saying it as my opinion based on what the Flames have said and how I feel they value Johnny.
I don't see them coming up short on their offering to him, they know he's that important to the team.

If money is the only factor in his decision, I don't see a scenario in which he's leaving, so good.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Well if in fact the Flames made their offer and Johnny’s side went radio silence that really sucks. Still hold out some hope he’ll re-sign but things don’t appear to be going that smoothly.

Don’t be too upset, the GM allowing his star player to go unsigned into a contract year and then having him have a career year on top of that could happen to anyone. Feels like it’s going to be one hefty price tag wherever he signs

[Vinny01]

I think things may pick up come the draft. I wonder if the Flames decide to let Johnny talk to other teams before the window opens so they maintain the 8 year offer? Let him talk to NJ or Philly and see if there is a deal the Flames can make while still offering the 8 years.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Do we really think this is about money at this point, for either side? No one knows for sure, but I'm guessing the Flames are willing to pay, and Johnny knows he's getting paid regardless.

This is about WHERE Johnny wants to be. And it's likely a where conversation around where he'd like to play out the rest of his years (location) AND where does he think is most likely a winner can be built around / with him. Johnny's likely weighing Calgary out against other places he realistically thinks (or might know) will come to the table with a monetary offer that will be good enough. And if those are the factors left to decide for Johnny, makes sense he'll take as much time as is afforded to him to figure it out. Meaning, if we want a decision from him before the last minute, the Flames will have to impose their own internal deadline if we need to know sooner, because why wouldn't you take as much time as you can to make a huge life decision for yourself?

I was only responding to the supposed rumor. I don’t think money’s an issue. It’s more of what you said, where does Johnny want to play for the next 7/8 seasons of his career? He has a wife and a newborn coming. Those almost always take priority over anything else. It’s a huuuge life decision I don’t envy. Because no choice is wrong if he’s doing what’s best for his family.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Major Major

I think the AAV for the flames will be higher. Unfortunate, but I think the offers out east will be in the 10 range and the flames price will be 11-12. Plus the 8th year, it could be a pretty significant difference.

Weird assumption - I think it's plausible the AAVs are the nearly the same on 7vs.8 year offers, but unlikely 7 years will be less. It's a question of whether you're buying his age 36 year or not - I don't think teams will have any issue paying a slightly higher AAV for the 'not'.

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Apparently Forsberg is asking for something in the low-8 mills?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1541809549539086336

Can't see the Preds letting him walk if that's the case.

I wonder how about NMC and bonus structure. NAS has never given any kind of NTC/NMC to anyone but Josi (and Weber via offer sheet). Duchene and Josi each got about 50% in SB. Actually Duchene has a 7team NTC for the last 3 years of his deal, too.

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Come on. What channels? I wasn't being dick about it. He's saying something when there isn't much info, he gets clicks and gets on the radio. Tedious much?

Agents. Players. Executives. Coaches.

A quick search of my own contacts reminds me that I don't have any of those phone numbers or relationships.

Every piece of info they get involves some degree of spin and/or mutual back-scratching - good reporters will piece together a picture from multiple sources. As readers, we can paint our assemble our own puzzle knowing that any reporting is inherently flawed, but usually includes some kernels of truth.

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Flames should offer more than they did. Thought it when it happened and still think it now if Seravalli is right. Johnny wants and deserves an AAV in the double digits.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Losing Johnny because you won't go to 11 because you're stuck at 9.5 would be idiocy of the highest order. Calgary is not doing any damage without Gaudreau. They need Gaudreau. Now is not the time for strong arm tactics haha

None of us have any idea how these negotiations actually go. It's probably standard practice for each side to come in 10-15% less/more from where they expect to end up. I wouldn't be surprised if the rumoured 9.5AAV included max signing bonus and NMC...Flames are willing to go higher, but might try to ease back on those other items a bit in the process.

Another aspect is managing competing offers; if you set your anchor point high, then competing offers may rise with that tide. We actually have no idea what the competitive marketplace is at this point...most benchmark UFA deals we compare were pre-COVID; there are only two since then:

Hamilton - 7x9M - had just turned 28
Pietrangelo - 7x8.8M - was about to turn 31

I don't have a particular point - we just don't know where GMs/owners heads are really at, nor how true the rosy financial picture the league is promoting actually is.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think things may pick up come the draft. I wonder if the Flames decide to let Johnny talk to other teams before the window opens so they maintain the 8 year offer? Let him talk to NJ or Philly and see if there is a deal the Flames can make while still offering the 8 years.

No chance.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by dino7c

9,10,11

Who cares, would people really lose this guy over 2M?

People seem to enjoy playing Flames in-house accountant.

For fun last night I watched a number of Johnny's goals (mostly from from last year) as well as goals he set up (mostly to Lindy).

Ya we are burnt toast if Johnny leaves. We go from contender to cellar dweller in an instant.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Don’t be too upset, the GM allowing his star player to go unsigned into a contract year and then having him have a career year on top of that could happen to anyone. Feels like it’s going to be one hefty price tag wherever he signs

It's a shame that Gaudreau has no agency in all of this and that Treliving forgot to sign him.

[tvp2003]

Buyout window opens on July 1. One name that I've seen discussed is Sean Monahan, who has one year left at $6.375M (they'd get $4M in relief this year, with $2M added to next year). Obviously buying out Johnny's best friend on the team isn't a great way to get him to re-sign, but what if he subsequently agreed to a multi-year extension (kind of like Michael Stone)? Probably pretty risky for the Flames given Monahan's health, but it could also pay off if he regains some of his old form.

The only problem is that he'd have to go on waivers first; however, I can't see any team picking him up unless they think he'll be healthy to start the season.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1541814151873531913

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Buyout window opens on July 1. One name that I've seen discussed is Sean Monahan, who has one year left at $6.375M (they'd get $4M in relief this year, with $2M added to next year). Obviously buying out Johnny's best friend on the team isn't a great way to get him to re-sign, but what if he subsequently agreed to a multi-year extension (kind of like Michael Stone)? Probably pretty risky for the Flames given Monahan's health, but it could also pay off if he regains some of his old form.

The only problem is that he'd have to go on waivers first; however, I can't see any team picking him up unless they think he'll be healthy to start the season.

Zero chance he'd get picked up on waivers, although we can dream.

Not sure you can place an injured player on waivers, I think he has to consent to it first.