Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yep. Seravalli on 960 this morning saying the Flames made their pitch and the Gaudreau side has gone silent. He equated it to asking someone to marry you and when there is no answer, just a long pause, you already know the answer. Sounds like he's going to test free agency.

Has Seravalli proven to have any sort of pulse on the Flames? Or is he just another “insider” throwing spaghetti against the wall?

[Icon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Seravalli on 960 this morning saying the Flames made their pitch and the Gaudreau side has gone silent. He equated it to asking someone to marry you and when there is no answer, just a long pause, you already know the answer. Sounds like he's going to test free agency.

As transplant said above there's really no reason for him not to. The only carrot is tacking on an 8th year to the deal, which in all likelihood (other than due to injury) is a year he'll sign on for an extension/new deal for anyway.

All the talk about similar overall dollars but over 8yrs instead of 7yrs doesn't really make sense for him to me. If the offer's the same as he's expecting to see per year from other teams, but with the 8th year tacked on at the same AAV, then maybe that'd be appealing (so 8x11 instead of 7x11 or whatever the AAV is). But I think if that was the offer he would have signed it already, so he probably thinks he can get more money, closer to home, and isn't worried about the 8th year. Worst case he doesn't get the offer he's expecting and turns around & signs to stay anyway.

It's low risk & potential high reward for him to test the waters. (I think there's 0% chance the Flames go sign someone else before Johnny makes up his mind). My guess is Gaudreau finds that high reward elsewhere, and we're spending that cap space on a different acquisition after the fact. I just hope he decides before we miss out on the Plan B/C options.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yep. Seravalli on 960 this morning saying the Flames made their pitch and the Gaudreau side has gone silent. He equated it to asking someone to marry you and when there is no answer, just a long pause, you already know the answer. Sounds like he's going to test free agency.

I take it to mean that Johnny is likely still deciding whether he wants to stay or go. Now, he could have (and maybe has) told the Flames just that, and that is largely silent.

Johnny really can't get back to the Flames until he makes that decision.

[Toonage]

Watch Johnny pull a Taylor Hall, sign in Buffalo for 1 year.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by HitterD

Has Seravalli proven to have any sort of pulse on the Flames? Or is he just another “insider” throwing spaghetti against the wall?

He's arguably the premier hockey insider right now. Hockey rumours from top insiders are fun until they are about the team you cheer for and then it's throwing spaghetti against the wall.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

He doesn't need to put up another 40/100 season, but if Johnny leaves and he only puts up 70 points this year, that's a big difference IMO. Part of that is because I personally don't think Tkachuk is someone who can consistently generate offence on his own; he's a very good to elite finisher but needs teammates who can get him the puck in scoring areas. Who is going to do that if Johnny leaves?

I also agree he will re-sign for 5-6 years in Calgary to keep his options open.

With the haves and haves-not becoming increasingly prominent and Tkachuk being a clear "haves" he's going to get paid. Right now the UFA crop for that year looks solid but if Kane, MacKinnon, Pastrnak and Huberdeau re-sign, you're left with O'Reilly, Larkin, Miller and him, for example, O'Reilly being 32 years old and Larkin being not quite at Tkachuk's level would make Tkachuk the most sought after UFA. All it takes is one GM out of the 32 to blow their load, and we see time after time a GM do that.

So I think it would take a remarkably bad year from Tkachuk or severe injuries before he really starts risking much of substance from his contract if his goal is purely cash. Might limit his choices if he has a bad year and all of a sudden a team he wanted to be on balks at his ask, but some other GM will be there to give it to him.

[Major Major]

This could still easily be a leverage play. The narrative building by the Seravelli's of the world is logical a-b connecting or breadcrumbs to a mouse. Staying silent is exactly how you get the best offer. Negotiate off of that in the 11th hour and getting an extra 5% is exactly what Lewis Gross would do. Comparing it to a marriage when dealing with Gross is a stupid comparison. Saying the 8th year doesn't matter is saying that 15 million dollars doesn't matter. Maybe it doesn't, but it would be unusual for Gaudreau and gross to think that.

[TheIronMaiden]

If JG wants to make money, I am sure he can find 13M x 7 some place.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

If JG wants to make money, I am sure he can find 13M x 7 some place.

You think there's a team out there who wants to pay Johnny more than Mcdavid, starting at age 30?

I doubt he gets a contract bigger than $80MM on the open market. Flames won't even give him $90MM+.

He probably gets $85-$88M from the Flames.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Saying the 8th year doesn't matter is saying that 15 million dollars doesn't matter. Maybe it doesn't, but it would be unusual for Gaudreau and gross to think that.

How does the 8th year work out to be 15M? And if it does, I sure hope the Flames stay away now lol.

[madmike]

The issue with Gaudreau waiting until free agency to decide what he wants to do is it handcuffs the Flames with other moves. They can't really do anything until Gaudreau makes a decision.

If Gaudreau waits too long, the Flames could lose the opportunity to look at other FAs like Forsberg. If they don't get a commitment from him before the deadline it might be better to just move on.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

How does the 8th year work out to be 15M? And if it does, I sure hope the Flames stay away now lol.

I think the AAV for the flames will be higher. Unfortunate, but I think the offers out east will be in the 10 range and the flames price will be 11-12. Plus the 8th year, it could be a pretty significant difference.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Major Major

This could still easily be a leverage play. The narrative building by the Seravelli's of the world is logical a-b connecting or breadcrumbs to a mouse. Staying silent is exactly how you get the best offer. Negotiate off of that in the 11th hour and getting an extra 5% is exactly what Lewis Gross would do. Comparing it to a marriage when dealing with Gross is a stupid comparison. Saying the 8th year doesn't matter is saying that 15 million dollars doesn't matter. Maybe it doesn't, but it would be unusual for Gaudreau and gross to think that.

You are assuming that johnny simply wants the biggest dollars possible.

While I agree he wants as much money as he can get depending on which country he decides, I believe he still needs to decide if he wants to live in Calgary or the eastern US. If he chooses the eastern US, the 8th year, does indeed, not matter.

Once he decides that, he will, as he should, try and maximize dollars.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You are assuming that johnny simply wants the biggest dollars possible.

While I agree he wants as much money as he can get depending on which country he decides, I believe he still needs to decide if he wants to live in Calgary or the eastern US. If he chooses the eastern US, the 8th year, does indeed, not matter.

Once he decides that, he will, as he should, try and maximize dollars.

Part of my point is that everyone's assuming at this point. But yes, I agree.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

You think there's a team out there who wants to pay Johnny more than Mcdavid, starting at age 30?

I doubt he gets a contract bigger than $80MM on the open market. Flames won't even give him $90MM+.

He probably gets $85-$88M from the Flames.

It is a different Cap, and UFAs get bigger contracts than RFAs even if they deserve less. PPG players don't go to market very often.

Don't get me wrong. I think anything north of 10M AAV for JG would be obscene. But Free agency day is a blood bath.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

You think there's a team out there who wants to pay Johnny more than Mcdavid, starting at age 30?

It's not like those teams have an option of getting McDavid instead. The question isn't "is there a team willing to pay more for Gaudreau than McDavid" it's "is a team willing to pay 13M to have Gaudreau play for them?" A team like the Kraken who will be flirting with the salary cap floor once their players are signed would love to make a big splash (heyoo!) with someone like Gaudreau. At least put butts in the seat with a premiere star instead of Eberle...

But I doubt Gaudreau would chase the money completely and find a team like that when he could make just a little bit less in a place he has roots (Calgary, Eastern USA).

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

With the haves and haves-not becoming increasingly prominent and Tkachuk being a clear "haves" he's going to get paid. Right now the UFA crop for that year looks solid but if Kane, MacKinnon, Pastrnak and Huberdeau re-sign, you're left with O'Reilly, Larkin, Miller and him, for example, O'Reilly being 32 years old and Larkin being not quite at Tkachuk's level would make Tkachuk the most sought after UFA. All it takes is one GM out of the 32 to blow their load, and we see time after time a GM do that.

So I think it would take a remarkably bad year from Tkachuk or severe injuries before he really starts risking much of substance from his contract if his goal is purely cash. Might limit his choices if he has a bad year and all of a sudden a team he wanted to be on balks at his ask, but some other GM will be there to give it to him.

I think that's fair, and it might be a moot point as I don't think his goal is purely cash, i.e. he might take a bit less to sign with a better team. It's also hard to gauge exactly what his value is as he brings a lot of other elements to the table, not just scoring. He would be sought after, no doubt.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

It is a different Cap, and UFAs get bigger contracts than RFAs even if they deserve less. PPG players don't go to market very often.

Don't get me wrong. I think anything north of 10M AAV for JG would be obscene. But Free agency day is a blood bath.

True, and GMs can't help themselves sometimes.

But even during free agency, I think he's getting between 10-11MM per on the open market. Even at $11MM AAV, that's still only a $77MM contract.

The longer this drags on, the more I believe it's not about the money for him and he's looking for the best fit for himself. Could be lifestyle, could be family, could be chance to win a Cup. After free agency starts, he might realize the best fit is still Calgary, but he'll never wonder what else was out there because he tested it out.

Maybe the only team that offers him a big money deal is Seattle and he figures nah, Flames are better.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

True, and GMs can't help themselves sometimes.

But even during free agency, I think he's getting between 10-11MM per on the open market. Even at $11MM AAV, that's still only a $77MM contract.

The longer this drags on, the more I believe it's not about the money for him and he's looking for the best fit for himself. Could be lifestyle, could be family, could be chance to win a Cup. After free agency starts, he might realize the best fit is still Calgary, but he'll never wonder what else was out there because he tested it out.

Maybe the only team that offers him a big money deal is Seattle and he figures nah, Flames are better.

I just hope that if he doesn't sign for the Flames its for an amount so crazy that I am glad we didn't pay that much.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by madmike

The issue with Gaudreau waiting until free agency to decide what he wants to do is it handcuffs the Flames with other moves. They can't really do anything until Gaudreau makes a decision.

If Gaudreau waits too long, the Flames could lose the opportunity to look at other FAs like Forsberg. If they don't get a commitment from him before the deadline it might be better to just move on.

Yup. And that's part of the leverage play. The longer Gaudreau waits, the better is his position becomes relative to the Flames organization.

Gaudreau's camp, from a purely financial point of view, has every incentive to hold their cards as tight as possible and use that to force as much money out of the Flames as possible.

IMO silence isn't necessarily a negative thing. If Gaudreau really wants to leave and test the UFA market, it would make some sense for him to let that leak out. As then he'd give other teams as much chance to start putting together their best offers as possible.

The other side of the equation is that we have no idea what the Flames actually know. For all we know, Gaudreau has already told them no.

At the end of the day, I believe anyways, that Gaudreau is not totally concerned with cash. If he's leaving Calgary, it'll be because he wants to be closer to home and always intended to go back.