Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

If they are "very different players" who are on different levels, then no,the comparison between MacKinnon and Gaudreau does not work. It doesn't work because MacKinnon is already arguably the best player in the world who can command pretty much whatever he wants on his next contract. Gaudreau was never in a position to do that.


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And yet here we are sitting on pins and needles waiting and hoping the Flames don't lose the only star we've had since Iginla and the player that is directly responsible for 90% of the team's offense. That won't be happening in Colorado. That's the comparison. Not who's a better player that can name his price. Johnny can pretty much name his price too. He likely named his price last year and management balked. Was that a good move?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I would be surprised if MacKinnon signs for less than McDavid. He has been one of the lowest paid players for what he produces for several years running, and is a top-three player in the League. He will be 28-years-old when his next contract begins. He needs to ensure that it is the best deal he can get.

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I won't be surprised with any AAV between 11 and 13. If they win the cup it's probably closer to 13; if they don't I think there's a decent chance it's under 12.


Interesting to look at some MacKinnon comps:

Barkov is 1 day younger. Over 3 seasons MacKinnon has been good for about 40 more assists (half EVS, half PP). Barkov plays about 40 seconds less per game; 0:25 less on PP and 1:30 more SH, so nearly 2 mins less EV+PPTOI

Barkov has played mostly with Verhaege/Duclair past 2 years; Dadonov/Huberdeau the year before. Comparing with Rantanen/Landeskog probably accounts for most of those ~13 assists per year...


Matthews is 2 years younger. Pt production similar, but Matthews scores lots more goals. Similar TOI; Matthews actually gets less PPTOI. Both Matthews and Barkov are much better at faceoffs (55% vs. NM 45%).

Obviously McDavid's stats are in a different stratosphere, but there's also a ton of caveats.


Which is all to say there could be arguments that MacKinnon is closer to Matthews and Barkov than McDavid...though I'd still pay him 8x13M without hesitation. At this moment factoring contracts I'd still have MacKinnon #2 (after Makar), but I have to begrudgingly rank McDavid over Barkov, as I now have bigger question marks about Barkov's game-breaking ability in the playoffs.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by chedder

And yet here we are sitting on pins and needles waiting and hoping the Flames don't lose the only star we've had since Iginla and the player that is directly responsible for 90% of the team's offense. That won't be happening in Colorado. That's the comparison. Not who's a better player that can name his price. Johnny can pretty much name his price too. He likely named his price last year and management balked. Was that a good move?

There is no uncertainty at all that MacKinnon will continue to be one of the most dominant forwards in the NHL after his next contract. At this time last year, the same could not be said about Gaudreau. That is the difference; that is why the comparison doesn't work; that is why your attempt to depict this as a huge mistake for Flames management is so obviously transparent.

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[chedder]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is no uncertainty at all that MacKinnon will continue to be one of the most dominant forwards in the NHL after his next contract. At this time last year, the same could not be said about Gaudreau. That is the difference; that is why the comparison doesn't work; that is why your attempt to depict this as a huge mistake for Flames management is so obviously transparent.

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Never no uncertainty. Especially for a player that's missed over 60 games in his career. Not trying to be opaque about the Flames miscalculation of the situation if Johnny walks for nothing. It's not a huge mistake for management at this point. But there is potential.

[tkflames]

Came to check on the signing status of Chucky and Gaudreau...learned that McKinnon, is good and will get paid next year (maybe even this summer) and is still only the second best player on the Avs.

[Burner]

still trying to figure out how the flyers an fit Gaudreau into their salary cap

[OptimalTates]

Seems like JVR is the obvious solution. 7M cap, winger, one year left. 4M in salary, 24 goals, shouldn’t be too hard to find a buyer if they throw in something which I’m sure they are glad too if they sign Gaudreau.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Came to check on the signing status of Chucky and Gaudreau...learned that McKinnon, is good and will get paid next year (maybe even this summer) and is still only the second best player on the Avs.

You're expecting something in June? That's your mistake.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Seems like JVR is the obvious solution. 7M cap, winger, one year left. 4M in salary, 24 goals, shouldn’t be too hard to find a buyer if they throw in something which I’m sure they are glad too if they sign Gaudreau.

They still need to fill out their roster. Even swapping vanReimsdyk out for Gaudreau, they will be bringing more money in, because he is not signing anywhere for $7.0 m. Then they also need to fill out another four or five roster spots. Especially given how they finished the season, I just don't think Philadelphia is in the running.

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[FlamesAddiction]

Whatever team signs Gaudreau is getting a franchise player for a few years. GMs aren't always rational when it come to the silly season. The Flyers would have some figuring out to do, but they will have all summer to sort it out if they go that route.

Not that I think Gaudreau is leaving for sure. If he does re-sign, I don't think we will hear about it until after the Cup is awarded.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Whatever team signs Gaudreau is getting a franchise player for a few years. GMs aren't always rational when it come to the silly season. The Flyers would have some figuring out to do, but they will have all summer to sort it out if they go that route.

Not that I think Gaudreau is leaving for sure. If he does re-sign, I don't think we will hear about it until after the Cup is awarded.

I agree that teams and GM's may do whatever it takes to sign Johnny and might be willing to make bad decisions to get him. But will Johnny leave Calgary to sign with a team that needs to "spend the summer" figuring it out? Any team that offers him 7 years at or north of $11 mil a year and also needs to move players out to fit him better be a very good team or I think Johnny will just pass on that team. IMO there are only a few real threats to sign him and for the most part these teams can bring back most of their team and are already a team that is good or on the rise

Anaheim
LA
Nashville
New Jersey
Detroit

Teams like Buffalo, Ottawa, Seattle, Arizona, Columbus may be a threat but it would take a few extra million total dollars from these team before Johnny leaves Calgary to play on teams this bad or other Canadian teams with even higher taxes.

I think players want to get paid more than anything but they also don't want to play on teams that aren't just awful year in year out either.

Almost every other team in the league has other players they value very much and just don't have cap space to out bid Calgary

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Seems like JVR is the obvious solution. 7M cap, winger, one year left. 4M in salary, 24 goals, shouldn’t be too hard to find a buyer if they throw in something which I’m sure they are glad too if they sign Gaudreau.

I’m sure philly would be a dream for Johnny to play for similar to Tavares signing with the leafs. But Tavares didn’t just sign with Toronto because he had leafs pjs when he was a kid. Guys like Mathews marner nylander rielly probably were just as big a factor as anything.

Philly has nobody.

[Manhattanboy]

Wonder what Mamma and Papa Gaudreau think the idea of John playing for Torts?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by chedder

Never no uncertainty. Especially for a player that's missed over 60 games in his career. Not trying to be opaque about the Flames miscalculation of the situation if Johnny walks for nothing. It's not a huge mistake for management at this point. But there is potential.

Injuries are a slightly higher concern with MacKinnon than most other players, but his play when on the ice absolutely isn't. I don't recall his specific injury history, but there is also a luxury to running away in the standings that you can rest players with minor injuries that might otherwise play if they needed to.

As for Johnny, we really need to see how the next ~5 seasons play out before we can know how good it really was to sign/not sign him. If he mirrors his last 5 seasons (1 exceptional, 2 very good/great, 2 mediocre) I'm not sure it will be good value for an 8 figure AAV.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I’m sure philly would be a dream for Johnny to play for similar to Tavares signing with the leafs. But Tavares didn’t just sign with Toronto because he had leafs pjs when he was a kid. Guys like Mathews marner nylander rielly probably were just as big a factor as anything.

Philly has nobody.

Philly has the opposite of no one. That team is such a mess. If Johnny wants to go there it is only because he wants to go home and we never had a chance.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Philly has the opposite of no one. That team is such a mess. If Johnny wants to go there it is only because he wants to go home and we never had a chance.

I think if Johnny signs anywhere but Calgary it will be for that reason. I don't think it will be because Calgary didn't offer him enough.

I expect Johnny is still wrestling with with the question of where he wants to spend the next chapter of his life.

He knows he'll get paid where ever he chooses.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Philly has the opposite of no one. That team is such a mess. If Johnny wants to go there it is only because he wants to go home and we never had a chance.

He was actually born in New Jersey and playing there would be less than 2 hours from home. The Devils are the threat.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by edslunch

He was actually born in New Jersey and playing there would be less than 2 hours from home. The Devils are the threat.

Philly is less than an hour from JG's hometown.

Newark is further iirc.

[Roof-Daddy]

Philly is the closest and his favorite team growing up.

NJ is a threat though, IMO. Lots of high profile young players (especially C's), a nice new arena, east coast, willing to spend, way less travel...

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by edslunch

He was actually born in New Jersey and playing there would be less than 2 hours from home. The Devils are the threat.

Originally Posted by transplant99

Philly is less than an hour from JG's hometown.

Newark is further iirc.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Philly is the closest and his favorite team growing up.

NJ is a threat though, IMO. Lots of high profile young players (especially C's), a nice new arena, east coast, willing to spend, way less travel...

Yeah, it wouldn’t even surprise me if he hated NJD growing up, though Philly has plenty of hated rival teams.

NJD makes sense from a team on the rise perspective. Philly is just the hometown kid coming home. With Tavares arguably the Leafs was both.