Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Does the exact same for you!

You offering him 25:1 odds so that you net back to 1:1 lol.

Your offered odds are saying that you are 25x more sure he'll re-sign...

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by BurningSteel

Sure.


JG becomes a UFA in July. Flames have made a pitch. Ball in his court.


MT is a RFA, will get qualified as required but flames hope to have 13 sorted first.

And...talking heads being rude to each other arguing, bickering and generally snot-ragging thoe who dare to think differently than them (rightly or wrongly), with a few non-ignorant posts in the middle.

Of the approximately 2,800 posts that is around 2,700 of them. The others pretty much make sense.

This place is INSUFFERBALE at times for actual adults.

[GioforPM]

No negotiators operate from only one comparable. Panarin isn't the only winger to have signed a contract. And his example wasn't followed in a bunch of other scenarios.

Here's the LW contracts in order:

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contracts/left-wing/

For reference, RW contracts. There is arguably a premium for RWs because there are fewer.

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contract...ing/limit-100/

Here's centres, to the extent they matter. Look at Barkov's which kicks in next year:

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contract...ter/limit-100/

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don't think everyone would agree with that.

And before this year, I doubt anyone would agree with it.

Now, I'm not so sure, Johnny was spectacular this year.

I will say that I don't think most Flames fans realized just far and fast Monahan was declining over the last three seasons and when you consider he was still Gaudreau's center up until late last season and the other winger was at times junk like Simon or Ritchie and I just don't know if Panarin was ever put into a situation where he had to carry a center that was at best 3/4 line capable and a winger that was a fringe NHL player. I don't think consistency is a problem for Gaudreau and it's the inconsistency in linemate talent over his career that has caused some fluctuation in his production. When he's paired with productive players he's always been elite.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No negotiators operate from only one comparable. Panarin isn't the only winger to have signed a contract. And his example wasn't followed in a bunch of other scenarios.

Here's the LW contracts in order:

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contracts/left-wing/

For reference, RW contracts. There is arguably a premium for RWs because there are fewer.

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contract...ing/limit-100/

Here's centres, to the extent they matter. Look at Barkov's which kicks in next year:

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/contract...ter/limit-100/

Of the LW, Johnny Gaudreau is the best player today - and the salary cap is higher today than it was when the other players signed.

Of the RW, Johnny Gaudreau is the best player today - and the salary cap is higher today than it was when the other players signed..

Of the centres - there's a premium to be paid there for sure, but again - Barkov's is free of state tax. Barkov is getting taxed at 37% (I think), whereas Gaudreau is getting taxed at somewhere around 47.5%. What's ~10%? Brings Johnny up to that 11.25M range. Barkov is a franchise player, Johnny is a franchise player.

I feel like in some of these conversations Flames fans aren't giving Gaudreau enough credit, but the market will set his value, and he's a franchise player. Would you really walk away from Gaudreau at $11.25M yet sign him at $10M? If so...I don't get it.

[Bourque's Twin]

$11 million for 8 years is where I think it will land. If Tre can do it for less of a cap hit, he's a wizard. 8 years is 100% the length of term. If Tre insists on less than $11M then I think Johnny is testing is luck at free agency.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Of the RW, Johnny Gaudreau is the best player today - and the salary cap is higher today than it was when the other players signed.

I'd take Kucherov any day over Gaudreau and probably Stone

[Lanny_McDonald]

Gaudreau isn't worth $11M per season. I would really be hesitant to sign him to a deal where his cap hit was eight figures.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Gaudreau isn't worth $11M per season. I would really be hesitant to sign him to a deal where his cap hit was eight figures.

If he played in the east, he would have been nominated for the Hart. His stats were better than McDavids this season (my opinion, I place more weight on non-power play points).

So yeah, the Flames can #### around and think he isn’t worth 8 digits, but then they’ll watch the market award him an 8 digit contract elsewhere. So if the market will award him 8 digits, I’d say he’s an 8 digit player.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Gaudreau isn't worth $11M per season. I would really be hesitant to sign him to a deal where his cap hit was eight figures.

Well he is definitely getting at least 10 unless he signs at a discount

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by lanny_mcdonald

gaudreau isn't worth $11m per season. I would really be hesitant to sign him to a deal where his cap hit was eight figures.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519975664014831617

I don't believe you are assessing market value correctly, or you are just undervaluing Gaudreau.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519975664014831617

I don't believe you are assessing market value correctly, or you are just undervaluing Gaudreau.

He’s not worth $11. Max he gets is $10 mil on a 7 year deal maybe $10.5 per

Max the Flames will have to pay him 8 years low to mid $9 mil.

[powderjunkie]

Panarin was a 7 year deal signed when he was about to turn 28.

Gaudreau will be 29 when he plays the first game of this deal.

There's actually a pretty significant difference in buying ages 28-34 vs. 29-36

For example:
28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
13 13 12 12 11 11 10 ......... = 82 (should be 81.5/7 for Panarin)
.... 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 = 87 (10.875 AAV over 8)

or if you make the age curve a bit more pronounced:

28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
14 14 13 12 11 9.5 8.. … … = 81.5
…. 14 13 12 11 9.5 8.. 7.. 7.. = 81.5 (10.188 AAV over 8)


Obviously the inputs are widely variable, but from an AAV context the question is how much more valuable is Panarin's age 28 year than Johnny's age 35 and 36 years?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

He’s not worth $11. Max he gets is $10 mil on a 7 year deal maybe $10.5 per

Max the Flames will have to pay him 8 years low to mid $9 mil.

Based on what?

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

$11 million for 8 years is where I think it will land. If Tre can do it for less of a cap hit, he's a wizard. 8 years is 100% the length of term. If Tre insists on less than $11M then I think Johnny is testing is luck at free agency.

Too bad that wizard lost his magic wand last summer when Johnny could have been signed for about $9M or less

[Mr.Coffee]

If I’m Gaudreau and the Flames are sticky on keeping things sub 10, I’m headed to free agency, absolutely.

Also, for Treliving to say “we’ll move heaven and earth to sign him”, well, obviously not. Time to pay up Brad and time to do it pretty ####ing quickly. The fact it’s gone this far is asinine anyway.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Too bad that wizard lost his magic wand last summer when Johnny could have been signed for about $9M or less

I think that contract would be have been done if Gaudreau was willing to sign it last summer

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Too bad that wizard lost his magic wand last summer when Johnny could have been signed for about $9M or less

Tre may have zero or a million wands, good ones, bad ones - it makes no difference. It takes two parties to execute a contract

There is no logical reason that I can see why Gaudreau would have signed last off season, coming off a down year. That would have simply been foolish

[Ryan Coke]

I remember Lewis Gross hiring someone to try to boost Gaudreau’s value on here last time (which I found spectacularly distasteful). Makes me wonder if he would do the same this time, or maybe try to get an existing poster to fill the same role.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I remember Lewis Gross hiring someone to try to boost Gaudreau’s value on here last time (which I found spectacularly distasteful). Makes me wonder if he would do the same this time, or maybe try to get an existing poster to fill the same role.

If the Flames base decisions based on what us neckbeards think then the franchise is doomed anyways