Hart voting, can Johnny win?

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Not sure why Josi is ‘historical’ and Huberdeau has ‘no such claim’

Josi might end up with a season that is top 20 in points for a D but is nowhere near the Orr / Coffey seasons. Norris, sure, Hart no

https://records.nhl.com/records/skat...man-one-season

Huberdeau is the top all time in assists for a LW in a season, at 78 and counting, with Joe Juneau’s 70 in the rear view mirror
https://records.nhl.com/records/skat...ing-one-season

* And of course Johnny should overtake Juneau soon, maybe even today, as he is sitting at a nice 69 assists entering tonight’s game with Chicago

Yes, Huberdeau is going to have that record, but the top 3 from all time are all likely to be from this season.

And one of those three is going to be ahead of him in the voting.

[Enoch Root]

since Jan 1, Josi has more points than McDavid

1) Marner 73
2) Gaudreau 72
3) Huberdeau 70
4) Tkachuk 70
5) Matthews 69

11) Josi 59
12) McDavid 58

17) Draisaitl 54

[TheIronMaiden]

Oilers media will give Gaudreau the MacKinnon treatment and forget him when they make their list giving the Oilers players a better shot.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

It's Johnny's to lose

Regardless of whether Johnny should win or not (and it's clearly a debatable question), I doubt that the voters consider that it's Johnny's to lose.

Voters tend to vote for the player they consider best, as opposed to "most valuable".

And even when considering value, and understanding that Huberdeau has Barkov, McDavid has Draisaitl, and Matthews has Marner, Johnny has Tkachuk. Players seldom are responsible solely for a teams success. I actually think that Barkov has been as good, or even better, than Huberdeau.

A case can certainly be made that Johnny has indeed been the NHL's best player this year. But a case can be made for other players also.

I doubt that it's anyone's to lose.

IMO, Johnny has been the NHlLs best player so far this year, and Josi has been the NHL's most valuable player.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Oilers media will give Gaudreau the MacKinnon treatment and forget him when they make their list giving the Oilers players a better shot.

I love how much MacKinnon is hated in Edmonton, and the only reason is because people will argue he's a better all 'round player than Mcdavid

[Matata]

Factoring in +/-, a stat which is famously ignored in these situations, is Johnny's only path to the hart. Matthews is going to be within spitting distance of the points leader with a 60+ goal season. I can't see Ontario writers cruising past a golden opportunity to ram their guy to the Hart.


This is pretty cynical take, but the Hart voting seems to be a massive disappointment every year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Matata

Factoring in +/-, a stat which is famously ignored in these situations, is Johnny's only path to the hart. Matthews is going to be within spitting distance of the points leader with a 60+ goal season. I can't see Ontario writers cruising past a golden opportunity to ram their guy to the Hart.


This is pretty cynical take, but the Hart voting seems to be a massive disappointment every year.

Plus/Minus is ignored because it is an exceptionally flawed stat. Although in Johnny’s case, it shows a true story. But we know that because there are more reliable stats that show the same story.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He is up there but what makes him the run away winner? more goals? Leafs don't seem to have much trouble winning without him

Gaudreau has more points, even strength points, better plus minus

Plus minus is essentially a meaningless stat. Matthews is so unbelievably good defensively this season that he should probably win the Hart AND the Selke.

Johnny should be in the conversation, and will probably finish in or around the top 5... even though the voting is complicated by having Josi in there, because that also brings in Makar, because frankly notwithstanding the point totals Makar has been just about as good as Josi and some people will say "well if I'm voting one in I'm voting for both". I think Shesterkin is a lock to finish somewhere in the 3-4 range.

But Matthews is far more than just a goal scorer this season. I can't wait for the Leafs to blow a lead and lose in spectacular fashion in the playoffs, but he's basically as undeniable this year as McDavid was last year in my view.

[Macindoc]

+/- is a flawed stat, but the ways in which it is flawed do not favour Gaudreau. It favours those who play on the PK and punishes those who play on the PP (- for shorthanded goal against, + for shorthanded goal for, no change for PP goal either way). It also favours those who are on good teams and who are playing primarily with good linemates, but which of the proposed finalists (aside from Shesterkin) aren't?

[Duffalufagus]

Matthews is an overwhelming favorite in Vegas to win the Hart:

2021-22 HART MEMORIAL TROPHY ODDS

Auston Matthews (Toronto) -300
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) +500
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary) +850
Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) +1400
Igor Shesterkin (N.Y. Rangers) +2500
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) +4000

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

+/- is a flawed stat, but the ways in which it is flawed do not favour Gaudreau. It favours those who play on the PK and punishes those who play on the PP (- for shorthanded goal against, + for shorthanded goal for, no change for PP goal either way). It also favours those who are on good teams and who are playing primarily with good linemates, but which of the proposed finalists (aside from Shesterkin) aren't?

I would say that both McDavid and Draisaitl have noticeably worse linemates than Gaudreau or Matthews. Having said that, ~40% of their point production comes on the powerplay, where they play with each other and the whole 2 minutes in most cases.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Matthews is an overwhelming favorite in Vegas to win the Hart:

2021-22 HART MEMORIAL TROPHY ODDS

Auston Matthews (Toronto) -300
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) +500
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary) +850
Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) +1400
Igor Shesterkin (N.Y. Rangers) +2500
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) +4000

Gaudreau or Shesterkin look like a solid bet.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Matthews is an overwhelming favorite in Vegas to win the Hart:

2021-22 HART MEMORIAL TROPHY ODDS

Auston Matthews (Toronto) -300
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) +500
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary) +850
Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) +1400
Igor Shesterkin (N.Y. Rangers) +2500
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) +4000

Did you skip Josi or does he have even worse odds than Draisaitl?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Did you skip Josi or does he have even worse odds than Draisaitl?

He is +2800 on what I saw, better than Dry Saddle.

But Josi isn't going to win it, would be flushing your money down the drain. It's not like betting on an actual competition where lots of things affect the outcome

Matthews wins this and really the only way I see that changing would be if Gaudreau wins the Art Ross. Then it becomes a two man race but still see Matthews taking it.

McDavid winning the Art Ross won't matter, he's not winning it.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Johnny can win.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

He is +2800 on what I saw, better than Dry Saddle.

But Josi isn't going to win it, would be flushing your money down the drain. It's not like betting on an actual competition where lots of things affect the outcome

Matthews wins this and really the only way I see that changing would be if Gaudreau wins the Art Ross. Then it becomes a two man race but still see Matthews taking it.

McDavid winning the Art Ross won't matter, he's not winning it.

Agree with all that.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

He is +2800 on what I saw, better than Dry Saddle.

But Josi isn't going to win it, would be flushing your money down the drain. It's not like betting on an actual competition where lots of things affect the outcome

Matthews wins this and really the only way I see that changing would be if Gaudreau wins the Art Ross. Then it becomes a two man race but still see Matthews taking it.

McDavid winning the Art Ross won't matter, he's not winning it.

Step 1: Johnny with 5 points tonight and 4 points tomorrow. Breaks open a lead on the points race in the span of two games.


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[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Did you skip Josi or does he have even worse odds than Draisaitl?

Wasn’t listed. Josi has no shot. He probably won’t even win the Norris.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Wasn’t listed. Josi has no shot. He probably won’t even win the Norris.

That would be a crime.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

Matthews is an overwhelming favorite in Vegas to win the Hart:

2021-22 HART MEMORIAL TROPHY ODDS

Auston Matthews (Toronto) -300
Connor McDavid (Edmonton) +500
Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary) +850
Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) +1400
Igor Shesterkin (N.Y. Rangers) +2500
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) +4000

Unless I understand things wrong, those odds aren't set by anyone as a "prediction of outcome." They're literally just a representation of what people are betting on. Like, most of the people betting are betting on Matthews, therefore he has the smallest payout (or "best odds"). It doesn't mean anyone has predicted that Matthews will win though.