That was the detail required to explain my perspective. Others are "but six game wining streak = no problems derp, derp, derp." Yeah, remember when the Oilers were 9-1 to start the season and the parade was being planned? It didn't take a rocket surgeon to look at that roster and see the problems. Taking a look under the hood of that ####show exposed just how badly run that organization was/is. The longitudinal examination did not match the short-term success the team was experiencing, and when looking at futures does not paint a rosy picture. It's all about perspective.
Your perspective is "Look we don't know. You don't know. I don't know." about a situation that is very easy to distill and interpret. It may be beyond some people, but to others these situations are not difficult to understand as it is all about organizational measurables. I don't believe for a second that you don't understand this stuff. A futures trader with a predilection for tracking data, performance, and making inferences on given conditions? This is right in your wheelhouse. If you're not connecting the dots, that's maybe something to work on, because this is no different than evaluating the performance of a company and the CEO at the helm.
Actually a good futures trader very much puts data into piles of what he does and doesn't know.
But enough of the talking down ... "if you're not connecting the dots" may as well be replaced with "if you're not seeing it like I do, that's maybe something to work on".
We don't know what was offered by the Flames.
We don't know if the Flames even made an offer.
We don't know if Gaudreau was open to signing until the coming summer.
We don't know what he countered with if he had a counter.
We don't know if the Flames shopped him or not when they couldn't get a deal done.
We don't know what that market was and what offers were made if they did shop him.
Pretending to know any of those things isn't connecting the dots. It's jumping to a conclusion without any data.
Trader's that do that don't last very long.
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Wow, Lanny_McDonald, you love to write novels. Unfortunately, your entire dissertation is presupposed on the assumption that Gaudreau would have been willing to sign sooner. Gaudreau was almost certainly advised by his agent not to sign once last season started, since that season would not have been expected to produce comparable numbers to previous years, and both Gaudreau and his agent would have been just as aware as you that their leverage to get the best possible deal would only increase with time.
You are assuming that the Flames didn't make a very good offer. There is absolutely no evidence on which to base that assumption. Also, Gaudreau may have told the Flames that he would not discuss contract extension with any potential trade partner, thus significantly reducing his trade value.
The emergence of Mangiapane has been a surprise to everyone. However, his scoring pace is likely unsustainable in the long term, as his shooting percentage is miles above his career average. This has created a problem for Treliving, because being unsure of what to expect from Mangiapane and having limited cap room, he signed the winger to a "show me" contract. Now Mangiapane will be overpaid in his next contract, and will likely underperform that contract. This will be an unpopular opinion, but Treliving might have to trade Mangiapane's rights at the draft so that some other team can overpay him. Pitlick, Zadorov, Brouwer's dead cap hit, and possibly Gudbrandson will be gone, replaced by players mostly on entry-level deals. That will leave enough room for Treliving to extend both Gaudreau and Tkachuk. I suspect he will offer them both 8 year deals, to keep the AAV a bit lower in Gaudreau's case, and because that's one thing they won't be able to get on the open market. He should still have enough to offer a contract with term to Kylington. I do believe that Kylington is legit, and a I think a long-term deal would be preferable over a bridge in his case.
Of course, Mangiapane will have to be replaced with someone who can score. Hopefully one of the youngsters will be ready to fill that role next season.
Wow, Lanny_McDonald, you love to write novels. Unfortunately, your entire dissertation is presupposed on the assumption that Gaudreau would have been willing to sign sooner. Gaudreau was almost certainly advised by his agent not to sign once last season started, since that season would not have been expected to produce comparable numbers to previous years, and both Gaudreau and his agent would have been just as aware as you that their leverage to get the best possible deal would only increase with time.
You are assuming that the Flames didn't make a very good offer. There is absolutely no evidence on which to base that assumption. Also, Gaudreau may have told the Flames that he would not discuss contract extension with any potential trade partner, thus significantly reducing his trade value.
The emergence of Mangiapane has been a surprise to everyone. However, his scoring pace is likely unsustainable in the long term, as his shooting percentage is miles above his career average. This has created a problem for Treliving, because being unsure of what to expect from Mangiapane and having limited cap room, he signed the winger to a "show me" contract. Now Mangiapane will be overpaid in his next contract, and will likely underperform that contract. This will be an unpopular opinion, but Treliving might have to trade Mangiapane's rights at the draft so that some other team can overpay him. Pitlick, Zadorov, Brouwer's dead cap hit, and possibly Gudbrandson will be gone, replaced by players mostly on entry-level deals. That will leave enough room for Treliving to extend both Gaudreau and Tkachuk. I suspect he will offer them both 8 year deals, to keep the AAV a bit lower in Gaudreau's case, and because that's one thing they won't be able to get on the open market. He should still have enough to offer a contract with term to Kylington. I do believe that Kylington is legit, and a I think a long-term deal would be preferable over a bridge in his case.
Of course, Mangiapane will have to be replaced with someone who can score. Hopefully one of the youngsters will be ready to fill that role next season.
You're speculating that a contract that doesn't exist yet is going to be bad value. Are you a contract precog? It's Monday morning, get that negativity out of here!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Hanifin, Andersson and Lindholm come to mind. And how great does that UFA deal for Tanev look right now?
Also, don't look now but Blake Coleman is on pace to set a career high in points this season.
Last edited by ComixZone; 02-14-2022 at 09:14 AM.
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You're speculating that a contract that doesn't exist yet is going to be bad value. Are you a contract precog? It's Monday morning, get that negativity out of here!
Also, don't look now but Blake Coleman is on pace to set a career high in points this season.
Yeah, I think the Coleman contract is fine, but the value is not anywhere close to what the Flames are getting from those other contracts I mentioned. But that's okay, because not every deal that any GM makes is going to be a homerun.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
^^^ To have that consistently happen seems like a problem. If you're not getting beneficial deals done, there's something wrong.
I think Treliving has done pretty good contracts on a consistent basis. Hanifin, Lindholm, Gio, Hamilton, and even Gaudreau and Monahan’s were good at the time (I have no doubt he offered Gaudreau a longer term and they settled on 6 as a compromise between dollars and term).
This is why you need to wait and see what actually happens and not just assume the worst always
Scratch this one off the list
"Never makes a big move during the season only depth dman"
This really doesn't change much. Same conditions apply. What this does do is maybe make it easier to deal a player during the summer when the cap doctors can't make things work. Toffoli adds to the cap but gives you flexibility should you not be able to get one of the three big players needing contracts signed long-term and have to move them. Gaudreau still cannot be lost for nothing. That signing needs to take place, then a decision is made on the other two. Toffoli may make one of those decisions a lot easier to make.
This really doesn't change much. Same conditions apply. What this does do is maybe make it easier to deal a player during the summer when the cap doctors can't make things work. Toffoli adds to the cap but gives you flexibility should you not be able to get one of the three big players needing contracts signed long-term and have to move them. Gaudreau still cannot be lost for nothing. That signing needs to take place, then a decision is made on the other two. Toffoli may make one of those decisions a lot easier to make.
a major knock in this thread is not getting the big deal done, especially during the season.
he got the big deal done, considering the contract and term I bet this is the best deal of the deadline. All in a year when players are reluctant to come ot canada.
I'm sure some goal posts will be moved though
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Okay, credit where it is due - I think the Gaudreau and Monahan mess could have been dealt a lot more cleanly in the past. I am not discounting some misses in the past, however, he has made the big move I have wanted for a few seasons and the team is doing well.
I am now willing to give him a chance and see how this team does in the playoffs and off-season.
Alright, hard on Tree, but today is a big W for hi to get Toffoli, without giving up that much overall. A move that helps the secondary scoring for the team that only has that as their weakness currently.
Good job by him.
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Gotta give Tre credit. I was a down on the overall makeup of the team after the last couple years, and wanted a blow up.
Instead he gave Sutter (his hire or not, he's clearly embraced Darryl) and the core time. And rather than blowing things up he brought in the needed depth and support players suited to Sutter hockey. The whole team has bought in, the top line is firing again, and suddenly Tre's looking like a wizard once more!
"Sometimes it's the moves you don't make" indeed.
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