[Game Takes] Flyers 2 Flames 1 (OT)

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The lines are pre game coming into the contest, not the game itself. My summary at the end had only 4 or 5 players in the black.

Yep I caught that but rather than xGF % a switch to either attempted or actual shots %

Interesting that the Gaudreau linemates all were above 55% on the shots stat you posted and as a line was 47.39 xGF%

That would suggest they were outplayed and were just randomly directing shots on goal.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That is really a small sample size to be basing an analysis upon ..

Mangiapane Monahan Coleman have had at least one shift together in 15 games and have a total of 41 minutes together over those 15 games

Gaudreau Lindholm Tkachuk on the other hand have played with virtual no one else 184 minutes in 16 games

Dube Backlund Lewis 36 minutes in 16 games

Pitlick richardson and Lucic 24 minutes in 6 games

I certainly don't sell it as anything more.

The lineup section is right above it. The choices made by the head coach roll out in lines and pairings, the numbers on the season to date are how those choices line up for that game at that time.

I think you're missing the point.

People get very upset if a player is scratched or dressed ahead of another. How the lineup has played in its planned state is a summary that either fuels that hostility or puts it to bed.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I had similar hopes for Coleman but it doesn't seem he has much offensive skill as I expected. He will score some goals because he is a smart player and fast, and gets to the right places, but he won't create much. Still a huge positive when he's on the ice.

Dube is another guy who is not producing any offense. Those are two players I would have hoped for maybe 45 or 50 goals this season, and they're on pace for a combined 20. That and a fading Monahan is making scoring hard to come by.

You meant points right?!?!?!

[DeluxeMoustache]

I assume he meant combined goals

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Yep I caught that but rather than xGF % a switch to either attempted or actual shots %

Interesting that the Gaudreau linemates all were above 55% on the shots stat you posted and as a line was 47.39 xGF%

That would suggest they were outplayed and were just randomly directing shots on goal.

Where did you get your data.

Natural Stat Trick has Gaudreau at 61% CF, Shots at 73%, scoring chances at 78%, HD chances at 86% and xGF% at 73%.

His linemates were all north of 50% in all of those stats as well. Both Lindholm and Tkachuk were just under 60% for xGF%.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I assume he meant combined goals

That makes sense.

I think they move from that 20 pace to 30-35, but I can't disagree ... Coleman hasn't been creating a whole lot. Solid two way player and can contribute with good linemates, but not leading the charge offensively.

Dube looks lost to me right now.

I thought he, Lucic and Monahan had terrible nights turning the puck over unforced.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That makes sense.

I think they move from that 20 pace to 30-35, but I can't disagree ... Coleman hasn't been creating a whole lot. Solid two way player and can contribute with good linemates, but not leading the charge offensively.

Dube looks lost to me right now.

I thought he, Lucic and Monahan had terrible nights turning the puck over unforced.

Yeah combined goals. If Dube and Coleman get to 35 goals combined now, that would be a homerun. Statistically speaking it's unlikely.

Coleman will score some goals because the guy is a good hockey player. But I hoped his offense would flourish here a la Conroy back in the day but that was perhaps unrealistic. And right now 5 on 5, Monahan and Dube are not helping the team.

Mangiapane's 28% shooting percentage will start coming back to reality so hopefully we some 5 on 5 offense come from somewhere besides the top line. Other than Kylington, it doesn't seem the back end will provide much at all. But Kylington, wow, looking like Gary Suter out there.

[Erick Estrada]

Coleman looks pretty good to me on the PK. Seems to get the odd good scoring chance shorthanded. He would probably get noticed more for his play on a high skilled team as on the Flames his lunch bucket game blends in. I would hope by the end of the season he gains more confidence and chemistry with other forwards. At this point we will have to be happy if he finishes the season with 15 goals and 30 points.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

This is the biggest issue.

I was hoping Coleman would supply some supplemental scoring and make up for Monahan's lost offense, but he only has 3 goals and is on pace for 15 goals. Hopefully he gets hot soon.

Ugh, is Coleman another UFA winger whose value was inflated by playing on a championship team? I mean he’s not Brouwer-bad or Neal-bad but he’s not lighting it up either.

[Bingo]

The Flames are settling into pretty much what I (and others) expected.

Good system that allows them to keep the high danger stuff down. Goaltending that thrives in that type of system.

The ability to control the puck and control large chunks of games in terms of shot attempts, shots and generally scoring chances (that has lapsed on this trip), but the inability to finish at a rate that would keep the team elite.

The Flames have slipped to 22nd in five on five shooting percentage, but still have the league's best five on five save percentage.

Drilling down a bit the Flames offence is getting what it generates, that is their GF is pretty tight to their xGF. Therefore the lack of finish is due to quality of shots, and the team not generating all that much with their shot volume.

In terms of SCF/60 they are very good (ranked 3rd), so it's not where they're shooting it's how the puck gets to the point of the shot as they are ranked 19th in HDCF/60 ... so shots from homeplate but carrying it there themselves and not fooling the goaltender as there's no pass or rebound or tip to complicate things.

They are 0.8 GA/game better defensively than their xGA/game so the system and the goalies are getting the save.

Good hockey team that is in every game but doesn't have the finishers (or chance creaters) to score more than 2 per game.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Ugh, is Coleman another UFA winger whose value was inflated by playing on a championship team? I mean he’s not Brouwer-bad or Neal-bad but he’s not lighting it up either.

He hasn’t been used right IMO. He looks good physically which is better than Brouwer and Neal at least

When I first saw Neal skate with the puck my heart sank because I realized what a disaster it was going to be. He looked like Jagr with no hockey sense

I think Coleman should be with Backlund and Mangiapane. Stack the top 6 and cut the bottom 6’s ice time 5v5

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Where did you get your data.

Natural Stat Trick has Gaudreau at 61% CF, Shots at 73%, scoring chances at 78%, HD chances at 86% and xGF% at 73%.

His linemates were all north of 50% in all of those stats as well. Both Lindholm and Tkachuk were just under 60% for xGF%.

http://naturalstattrick.com/game.php...6&view=limited

Pop open Flames Lines at the bottom of the report

Breaking out the CF% FF% SF% xGF xGA xGF% for the lines from the report has the Gaudreau line at XGF% of 47.39 .41 xGF and .46 xGA ie they were outplayed according to the 2nd most important stat besides actual goals scored and goals scored against: Plus/Minus

Pullin out the fancy stats % from the report:

Player 1 Player 2 Player 3
TOI CF% FF% SF% xGF xGA xGF%

Milan Lucic Brad Richardson Tyler Pitlick
7.28 38.46 22.22 25 0.11 0.13 45.63

Matthew Tkachuk Elias Lindholm Johnny Gaudreau
10.70 57.14 66.67 70 0.41 0.46 47.39

Trevor Lewis Mikael Backlund Dillon Dube
8.58 23.08 20 16.67 0.1 0.35 22.31

Andrew Mangiapane Sean Monahan Blake Coleman
9.93 46.15 30 25 0.22 0.31 41.08

Where does Natural Stat trick say they were individually all 50+ and Gaudreau dominating? If he was dominating who was he playing with the 3-4 ES minutes he was not with them. Were they also better w/o Johnny?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Ugh, is Coleman another UFA winger whose value was inflated by playing on a championship team? I mean he’s not Brouwer-bad or Neal-bad but he’s not lighting it up either.

There is more to hockey than points


Coleman saved the game from being a regulation loss

[Bingo]

Interesting ...

So the trio all did better missing one of the other players at some point in the game.

Tkachuk played almost 5 minutes without at least one of the other two.
Gaudreau and Lindholm closer to 3 minutes without Tkachuk.

And both instances drove their overall numbers up.

Both interesting numbers and correct for what they show.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by dino7c

There is more to hockey than points


Coleman saved the game from being a regulation loss

Yeah Coleman is making a difference in his own zone and especially on the PK. I think he will figure out how to get more out of his game in the offensive zone, it just takes time for some guys when joining a new club. I think he finishes as a 15/20g - 20/25a kind of guy. Good little player.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Yeah Coleman is making a difference in his own zone and especially on the PK. I think he will figure out how to get more out of his game in the offensive zone, it just takes time for some guys when joining a new club. I think he finishes as a 15/20g - 20/25a kind of guy. Good little player.

Plus he has won the cup two years in a row. That's a lot of hockey. He is probably going to turn it up later in the season. He knows how to play when the games get more important.