09-20-2021, 05:24 PM
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#6261
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Seattle, WA
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Plains
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It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?
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The Following User Says Thank You to DoubleK For This Useful Post:
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09-20-2021, 06:11 PM
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#6262
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lubicon
It is still a hit to Stampede Park financially but yeah, it was never something I fond much use for.
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Easy PDH for Apega!
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09-23-2021, 07:11 AM
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#6263
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
Biden is trying to tamp down inflation by asking OPEC to pump more, conservatives in the states have been attacking him for the gas prices.
Most of the oil buys from Russia are going to California, a market we can potentially take over once TMX is done. KXL wouldn't have tapped that market as very few internal US pipelines cross the mountains into the state. The coastal refineries buy waterborne barrels and with falling Mexican and Venezuelan heavy production they have to go to OPEC+.
Alberta is in good position if Line 3 is completed this year and TMX next year. We don't really need KXL until late decade and that probably assumes business as usual vs tightening GHG emissions.
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Word, let’s see what happens.
Has anyone compiled a table of oilsands projects in production and how close they’re getting to “post payout” status and thus increased royalty rate take by the crown? I seriously dislike going into AER tables to manually figure it out LOL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Biff
If the NHL ever needs an enema, Edmonton is where they'll insert it.
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09-23-2021, 08:59 AM
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#6264
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeeGeeWhy
Word, let’s see what happens.
Has anyone compiled a table of oilsands projects in production and how close they’re getting to “post payout” status and thus increased royalty rate take by the crown? I seriously dislike going into AER tables to manually figure it out LOL
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I would be super interested in knowing this as well. I believe CVE's Foster Creek is post payout, how many others are there?
It seems like that could dramatically increase royalties if some big projects reach payout, especially if prices are high when that happens.
Alternatively, it might spur expansions to avoid hitting payout, which would be good for hiring in the province.
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09-23-2021, 03:13 PM
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#6265
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I would be super interested in knowing this as well. I believe CVE's Foster Creek is post payout, how many others are there?
It seems like that could dramatically increase royalties if some big projects reach payout, especially if prices are high when that happens.
Alternatively, it might spur expansions to avoid hitting payout, which would be good for hiring in the province.
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I was always curious about the economics of the above. Is it always worth the capital cost in order to defer your royalty payouts? Sure you are unlocking incremental barrels, but if you are doing expansions purely to continue to receive preferential rates is that the best use of funds flow?
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09-23-2021, 09:17 PM
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#6266
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I would be super interested in knowing this as well. I believe CVE's Foster Creek is post payout, how many others are there?
It seems like that could dramatically increase royalties if some big projects reach payout, especially if prices are high when that happens.
Alternatively, it might spur expansions to avoid hitting payout, which would be good for hiring in the province.
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It's not a complete list and there could be some mistakes, but here are the status of the larger projects with some rough estimates of payout:
SAGD
CVE Christina Lake & Foster Creek - post payout
COP Surmont - 2026+
SU Firebag - expected ~2021
CNQ Jackfish - Ph1&2 post payout, Ph3 expected ~2022
CNQ Primrose - post payout
MEG Christina Lake - expected ~2024
Mines
CNQ Jackpine - expected ~2022
CNQ Horizon - expected ~2023
CNQ Muskeg River - post payout
IMO Kearl - long time / never
SU base - post payout
SU Fort Hills - long time / never
Syncrude - post payout
So from those projects we could see somewhere around 700 - 800 mbbls/d of production reach payout in the next 3 years if oil prices continue at similar price levels. How much that actually equates to in incremental annual royalties is tough to say, but it's in the billions.
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09-24-2021, 08:45 AM
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#6268
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
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There are companies that already have them mandated. They appear to be the biggest so far though.
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09-24-2021, 08:48 AM
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#6269
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
There are companies that already have them mandated. They appear to be the biggest so far though.
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I meant first of the big 4, which trickles down to the rest of the industry.
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09-24-2021, 05:27 PM
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#6270
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
I was always curious about the economics of the above. Is it always worth the capital cost in order to defer your royalty payouts? Sure you are unlocking incremental barrels, but if you are doing expansions purely to continue to receive preferential rates is that the best use of funds flow?
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It makes a big difference. On a big project that is close to payout you get to deduct the entire capex off your payout calculation, so you effectively get the credits very quickly. Do you build a 30kbopd phase and instead of it getting cheap royalties for 25 years the whole 300kbopd project gets cheap royalties for 2.5 years. Time value of money difference is very large there.
Obviously it doesn't make a bad project great, but it definitely makes a difference at the margins.
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09-29-2021, 09:35 AM
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#6271
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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09-29-2021, 09:37 AM
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#6272
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city
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I was planning on having Subway for lunch today, in your opinion how much meat should I order?
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
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09-29-2021, 09:38 AM
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#6273
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Had an idea!
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Is Alberta going to gain from the increased natural gas prices?
How are things going on that front?
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09-29-2021, 09:42 AM
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#6274
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: NYYC
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With the recent energy issues in Europe and China, and general underinvestment in the industry the last few years, there definitely feels like there is a looming global energy crisis slowly building...but I'm curious how you guys in the Canadian oil/gas sector feeling these days about prospects moving forward? I assume a little more bullish, even if cautiously so?
Interesting article I read this am:
https://financialpost.com/commoditie...and-gas-stocks
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09-29-2021, 09:48 AM
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#6275
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Had an idea!
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I am mostly interested in how the Kitamat LNG progress is going and what we expect.
Canada could be a world leader in LNG. We need to be on top of this and take advantage of other countries not being able to export.
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09-29-2021, 09:49 AM
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#6276
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Table 5
With the recent energy issues in Europe and China, and general underinvestment in the industry the last few years, there definitely feels like there is a looming global energy crisis slowly building...but I'm curious how you guys in the Canadian oil/gas sector feeling these days about prospects moving forward? I assume a little more bullish, even if cautiously so?
Interesting article I read this am:
https://financialpost.com/commoditie...and-gas-stocks
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Investors keep telling everyone no additional capital for production growth, give us buy backs and dividends. Most of the producers here are switching gears to CCS and the pathways initiative.
Once OPEC's spare capacity is drawn down this could keep climbing. Could also see things drop back to $50-60 if SP500 ect take a months long dump.
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09-29-2021, 10:01 AM
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#6277
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: An all-inclusive.
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All I know is that the Pathways initiative is keeping me and my team stupid busy.
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The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Leondros For This Useful Post:
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09-29-2021, 01:12 PM
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#6279
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
Is Alberta going to gain from the increased natural gas prices?
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Without LNG exports, Alberta and BC can't really benefit from the bidding war between European and Asian countries right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Azure
I am mostly interested in how the Kitamat LNG progress is going and what we expect.
Canada could be a world leader in LNG. We need to be on top of this and take advantage of other countries not being able to export.
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Right now it looks like protests are back:
https://financialpost.com/commoditie...c-gas-pipeline
Canada will be decades behind Australia and the US by the time LNG Canada is finished.
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09-29-2021, 08:38 PM
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#6280
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Table 5
With the recent energy issues in Europe and China, and general underinvestment in the industry the last few years, there definitely feels like there is a looming global energy crisis slowly building...but I'm curious how you guys in the Canadian oil/gas sector feeling these days about prospects moving forward? I assume a little more bullish, even if cautiously so?
Interesting article I read this am:
https://financialpost.com/commoditie...and-gas-stocks
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Cautiously bullish but short term the industry is going to struggle with labor shortages. If that can be overcome (it will not be easy) there is room for more optimism.
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