[Signing] Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to extension beginning in 2022 (8 yrs, $9.25 mil AAV)

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

Now Mike Smith is Tom Brady……….. this thread is the gift that keeps on giving

Context brother.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

If this is the case, and the Oilers only won last year, simply because they were in a weak division, do we then not have to concede the Flames are even worse off than they looked... and by a substantial margin? The team you're calling a dumpster fire, the Oilers, finished 17 points ahead of the Flames last year in that "terrible division". They also had lower GAA. The Oilers didn't lose their captain in the offseason either but instead now have a good mix of experience and youth.

In regards to Mike Smith, I remember ALL year people on here were saying, it's only a matter of time until old Grampa Smith shows his true colors. Well he didn't slow down. Yet instead of giving him credit for a good season, they say it doesn't count because it was a shortened season and it is only a matter of time next year before he dramatically slows down. Here's a simple biology fact, some athletes can play longer effectively than others. Tom Brady is an example of that, in hockey Chris Chelios, in goaltending, Hasek... there are many more. Maybe Smith slows down, it wouldn't shock me, but if he does, it wasn't a total given, like I keep hearing in here.

Oh hey....I dont think anyone here will debate the fact that the 2020-21 Calgary Flames did not exactly cover themselves in Glory.

Frankly, I dont even really know what to make of the Flames going forward at the moment.

But I think, regardless of your Team of Preference, that we can all agree that the 2020-21 NHL Season was a bit of an outlier.

It was shortened. It was re-aligned. It took place i empty stadiums.

It wasnt what you'd call 100% normal.

I have said this multiple times: I am not drawing any conclusions from the information gleaned from that season.

It basically never happened. If it wasnt for sponsors it probably wouldnt have happened.

On those merits though, paying Darnell Nurse $9.25M based on his performance in a season which was so thoroughly screwy is insane.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

If this is the case, and the Oilers only won last year, simply because they were in a weak division, do we then not have to concede the Flames are even worse off than they looked... and by a substantial margin? The team you're calling a dumpster fire, the Oilers, finished 17 points ahead of the Flames last year in that "terrible division". They also had lower GAA. The Oilers didn't lose their captain in the offseason either but instead now have a good mix of experience and youth.

In regards to Mike Smith, I remember ALL year people on here were saying, it's only a matter of time until old Grampa Smith shows his true colors. Well he didn't slow down. Yet instead of giving him credit for a good season, they say it doesn't count because it was a shortened season and it is only a matter of time next year before he dramatically slows down. Here's a simple biology fact, some athletes can play longer effectively than others. Tom Brady is an example of that, in hockey Chris Chelios, in goaltending, Hasek... there are many more. Maybe Smith slows down, it wouldn't shock me, but if he does, it wasn't a total given, like I keep hearing in here.

Did Mike Smith slow down in game 4?

Yup.

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

Originally Posted by Locke

Oh hey....I dont think anyone here will debate the fact that the 2020-21 Calgary Flames did not exactly cover themselves in Glory.

Frankly, I dont even really know what to make of the Flames going forward at the moment.

But I think, regardless of your Team of Preference, that we can all agree that the 2020-21 NHL Season was a bit of an outlier.

It was shortened. It was re-aligned. It took place i empty stadiums.

It wasnt what you'd call 100% normal.

I have said this multiple times: I am not drawing any conclusions from the information gleaned from that season.

It basically never happened. If it wasnt for sponsors it probably wouldnt have happened.

On those merits though, paying Darnell Nurse $9.25M based on his performance in a season which was so thoroughly screwy is insane.

Hockey is hockey. If players couldn't perform as they would in a normal season, that's on them. In fact, it should be taken into account even more going forward, because of the increased likelyhood that there will be unforeseen things happening at a more regular frequency in the future. If Nurse performed highly in the midst of a pandemic, that should be an asset, not an outlier. The players who used the pandemic as a crutch or excuse, that should also be taken into account when assessing a player's dedication and stability.

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Did Mike Smith slow down in game 4?

Yup.

Having a below average game is not slowing down. He played well in the playoffs.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

Hockey is hockey. If players couldn't perform as they would in a normal season, that's on them. In fact, it should be taken into account even more going forward, because of the increased likelyhood that there will be unforeseen things happening at a more regular frequency in the future. If Nurse performed highly in the midst of a pandemic, that should be an asset, not an outlier. The players who used the pandemic as a crutch or excuse, that should also be taken into account when assessing a player's dedication and stability.

Speaking of context.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

Having a below average game is not slowing down. He played well in the playoffs.

So when he has a below average season in 21-22 you’ll be saying he played well?

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

No, but if he has a game or two below average, I am not going to say he's slowing down. Top elite goalies have a bad game or two, they just don't dwell in it.

(Context: I am not calling Smith a top elite goalie)

[Enoch Root]

Mike Smith was 39 last year - it was not unreasonable to expect time to catch up with him. To his credit, however, he had a great year.

This year, Smith will be 40 - it is even more likely that father time catches up with him. He may dodge that bullet again, we shall see, but like Russian Roulette, the odds get worse each time. And factoring in the fact that it will be a full 82 game season, and the Oilers' backup doesn't exactly inspire confidence, there will be a lot more weight on Smith's shoulders this year.

Consider: Smith has not had two consecutive years with a GAA under 2.50 since 2008. He has never had 2 consecutive years with a save percentage over .915.

In his 2 seasons prior to last year, he had save percentages of .898 and .902. Now, it is possible that he has achieved some kind of renaissance and last year's .923 (his best in 9 years!) can be replicated this season, but nothing in his past suggests that we should expect it.

And again, he is 40.

You're right though - he might be fine. But the Oilers are betting their season on it. Is that really something that you're happy about and comfortable with?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Mike Smith was 39 last year - it was not unreasonable to expect time to catch up with him. To his credit, however, he had a great year.

This year, Smith will be 40 - it is even more likely that father time catches up with him. He may dodge that bullet again, we shall see, but like Russian Roulette, the odds get worse each time. And factoring in the fact that it will be a full 82 game season, and the Oilers' backup doesn't exactly inspire confidence, there will be a lot more weight on Smith's shoulders this year.

Consider: Smith has not had two consecutive years with a GAA under 2.50 since 2008. He has never had 2 consecutive years with a save percentage over .915.

In his 2 seasons prior to last year, he had save percentages of .898 and .902. Now, it is possible that he has achieved some kind of renaissance and last year's .923 (his best in 9 years!) can be replicated this season, but nothing in his past suggests that we should expect it.

And again, he is 40.

You're right though - he might be fine. But the Oilers are betting their season on it. Is that really something that you're happy about and comfortable with?

This is so funny to me.

Kostinem makes more than twice as much as Mike Smith. Really...he is their 'starting goaltender.'

Mike Smith....is the backup...

Honestly, the fact that Kostinem is so bad that they've sold the farm to bank on Old Man Smith? Its hilarious.

[Enoch Root]

don't worry... the honour of plying with McDavid will inspire them both to greatness!

[Enoch Root]

Slightly off-topic (like most of the thread), but what do Oil fans think Yamamoto's contract will look like?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Slightly off-topic (like most of the thread), but what do Oil fans think Yamamoto's contract will look like?

If Nurse is any indication its going to start with a '9.'

Can we get that lucky? I dont know....

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

Context brother.

You claimed that certain players like Tom Brady, Chris Chelios, and Dominek Hasek didn't slow down in older age, so nobody should expect Smith to slow down.

Here's the rub. You just mentioned 3 of the all-time greats in their sport. Freaks of nature and loads of natural talent to combat their aging bodies. These are extreme outliers in the data set, but yet you assume Mike Smith will fall in line with them and not the vast majority of players. Here's the problem with that assumption...



Can you guess which one?

[topfiverecords]

99.975% of players slow down before 40, but if we list the 0.025% who don’t and just include Smith that guarantees playoffs!

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

99.975% of players slow down before 40, but if we list the 0.025% who don’t and just include Smith that guarantees playoffs!

I'm expecting around a .900 save percentage from Smith, but you should compare him to other goalies that were good at 38 and see what they did at 39.

No point in comparing him to the other 99% when he's already an outlier.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I'm expecting around a .900 save percentage from Smith, but you should compare him to other goalies that were good at 38 and see what they did at 39.

No point in comparing him to the other 99% when he's already an outlier.

Stats for other NHL goalies who played at 40.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/play...l-goalies.html

Hasek, Plante, Brodeur, Bower, Joseph, Sawchuk, Belfour. All legends that Smith is not.

A .900 save percentage would put him around 50th in goalies last year and just .001 above Koskinen.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Stats for other NHL goalies who played at 40.
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/play...l-goalies.html

So if he just goes Dominik Hasek or Johnny Bower for the year, everything is good.

OK then.

[Enoch Root]

A .900 save percentage last year would have meant 21 more goals against in 32 games.

The Oilers were 9th overall at +29 and slipping to +8 would have dropped them to 15th overall.

That is a pretty good illustration of just how much he carried them last year.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

If this is the case, and the Oilers only won last year, simply because they were in a weak division, do we then not have to concede the Flames are even worse off than they looked... and by a substantial margin? The team you're calling a dumpster fire, the Oilers, finished 17 points ahead of the Flames last year in that "terrible division". They also had lower GAA. The Oilers didn't lose their captain in the offseason either but instead now have a good mix of experience and youth.

Um duh where have you been all along, do you follow this board with the constant debates around how bad are team is. At least we're realistic.

Originally Posted by Rising_Oil_Prices

In regards to Mike Smith, I remember ALL year people on here were saying, it's only a matter of time until old Grampa Smith shows his true colors. Well he didn't slow down. Yet instead of giving him credit for a good season, they say it doesn't count because it was a shortened season and it is only a matter of time next year before he dramatically slows down. Here's a simple biology fact, some athletes can play longer effectively than others. Tom Brady is an example of that, in hockey Chris Chelios, in goaltending, Hasek... there are many more. Maybe Smith slows down, it wouldn't shock me, but if he does, it wasn't a total given, like I keep hearing in here.

Yes Mike Smith the 40 year old who had a near career best result, and at the very least his best season in a decade. In a short season, in a weak sauce division. Yeah, no that doesn't have regression written all over it.

"Hey Mike we need you to play 50 to 60 games this year"

TWANG

That's the sound of a 40 year olds groin exploding. And his defense, well, son is worse this year, and he made last year's defense not look decent, but bailed out.

And now you're pulling a Tom Brady. Son . . . buubie.

Tom Brady plays on extremely well built contending teams, he plays on strong well coached teams. The Mike Smith to Tom Brady comparison only works if Brady signed with the Detroit Lions and excelled. Seriously. Same with Chelios, he played on loaded teams so of course they could shelter Chelios as he started to slow down.

And . . . . here's the hilarious thing. Smith is not a QB, A QB can win because he has great receivers, or a great running back, a great defensive unit, it bails him out. You can argue that a great offense can bail out a good goalie, and maybe, but I doubt the Oilers are going to put up a bunch more points, especially if Nurse slips back towards his historic norms for example. Smith is still going to need to win games behind a worse blueline then last year, and a forward unit that still isn't going to be all that good without the puck.

And if his svpct slip, that razor thin margin dooms the Oilers.

And again, I want to re-iterate this in case its slips by with your lame argument that the Flames are bad, we know, we live in this thing called a reality. I know its an unknown thing to Oiler fans like you, but there's an open invitation for you to come back to it.

But your arguments. . . look really foolish.