Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2021 - Round 10

[Bingo]

Welcome to the annual Calgarypuck Prospect Poll!

As per usual ...

1. Rank the prospects as you like. Upside, chances, or trade value
2. I will try and do one a day which should get us to rookie camp range
3. Graduates and/or runoffs will be determined in each case
4. Please don't complain that the polls are going to deep. We go until all the prospects are ranked, so don't vote if you don't want to.

Link to previous years ... Link

2021 Ranking:
1. Coronato, Matthew 44%
2. Zary, Connor 65%
3. Pelletier, Jacob 86%
4. Wolf, Dustin 40%
5. Vladar, Daniel 45%
6. Mackey, Connor 38%
7. Stromgren, William 26%
8. Kuznetsov, Yan 36%
9. Ruzicka, Adam 27%

[Tkachukwagon]

I guess it’s a good sign there are still prospects I am excited about for the #10 spot, but looking at the list I’m going to need a refresher on some of these prospects.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Heineman.

Kinnwall reminds me of Tommy Albelin a bit. Late bloomer.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Kinnvall's NHLE offensive production rivaled Valimaki's in similar quality league last year although he is a bit older.

No brainer for me at #10. Right handed Dman as well.

NHLE was even higher this past season before nagging foot ligament issue slowed him down.

Source: https://thewincolumn.ca/2021/05/26/e...d-this-season/

Johannes Kinnvall – Defenceman
SEASON TEAM GP G A PTS NHLE
2020-21 SHL HV-71 32 7 15 22 33.6
2019-20 SHL HV-71 51 11 29 40 38.3

Source: https://thewincolumn.ca/2020/11/17/j...ecedented-way/

Using Christian Roatis’ (@CRoatis) NHLe calculator, the ratio between the Liiga and NHL 1:37.064. That means that one point in the NHL equates to approximately 37 points in the Liiga. This is based on P/GP, so the math on Valimaki is simple: right now, his scoring pace in the Liiga would equate to him having 37 points over the course of a full 82 game NHL season.

[transplant99]

Surprised more people aren't n the Heineman bandwagon.

Considering his age and draft pedigree i thought he would be much higher than a Ruzicka or Kinnvall for example. Maybe because he wasn't a Flame draft pick maybe?

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Surprised more people aren't n the Heineman bandwagon.

Considering his age and draft pedigree i thought he would be much higher than a Ruzicka or Kinnvall for example. Maybe because he wasn't a Flame draft pick maybe?

Just lack of anything about him for me, and probably most of us if I had to guess.

Poirier time for me now. Yeah his defensive game needs work. But he's good at doing the biggest thing, getting the biscuit in the basket.

[kehatch]

I have voted for Phillips that last few rounds. My head tells me it's the wrong pick. He doesn't have the bloated numbers that Mangiapane had in the AHL and he is tiny even compared to guys like Mangiapane and Gaudreau. A guy that size normally needs to put up some pretty crazy numbers to fit on an NHL roster.

But I have liked his game when I have seen him. Maybe he can fill a Paul Byron role in the NHL?

[Finger Cookin]

[jlh2640]

Boy Matthew Phillips has fallen hard in most of your eyes.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Kinvall, then Phillips

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Surprised more people aren't n the Heineman bandwagon.

Considering his age and draft pedigree i thought he would be much higher than a Ruzicka or Kinnvall for example. Maybe because he wasn't a Flame draft pick maybe?

2nd round pick, 43rd overall, which gives him more pedigree than anyone else left on the list.

Better draft year numbers than Stromgren (though Stromgren was 17).

Graduated to the Swedish elite league as a 19 year old

Targeted by the Flames in a trade.

[ricardodw]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1379870961382555652



I got this from the drafted Poirier thread. This has him lock-step with Shea Theodore.

D2 back in junior
D3 AHL with 19 NHL games and 6 playoff games w/ the Ducks
D4 26 AHL games 34 NHL games and 14 playoff games with Ducks
D5 a Star in Vegas 20 Playoff games into SCF
then signs a 5.2 x 7 in Vegas

[Enoch Root]

amazing similarity - let's hope it continues over the next few years!

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by jlh2640

Boy Matthew Phillips has fallen hard in most of your eyes.

My problem with Matthew Phillips is that his AHL production hasn't improved since the 2018 season.
He's still a good prospect, but if he's a late bloomer, he should still be...blooming.

But I think he's more NHL ready than he get credit for.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

amazing similarity - let's hope it continues over the next few years!

Poirier had 74 pts in 126 games and was a -66 in his 17-18 year old yrs of junior

Shea 85 pts in 140 games and was -60.


It seems easier to coach/teach defense than offense.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Surprised more people aren't n the Heineman bandwagon.

Considering his age and draft pedigree i thought he would be much higher than a Ruzicka or Kinnvall for example. Maybe because he wasn't a Flame draft pick maybe?

Heineman is next on my list. Kinnvall is the pick right now, but Heineman is right there.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

My problem with Matthew Phillips is that his AHL production hasn't improved since the 2018 season.
He's still a good prospect, but if he's a late bloomer, he should still be...blooming.

But I think he's more NHL ready than he get credit for.

If the Flames feel a need for a small talented forward to take up a NHL roster spot they can pick up Nic Petan when the Canucks waive him.

He is only 3 years older than Phillips and hasn't played enough games over the last 3 years to age much.

[united]

Copy-paste from my vote the last two rounds: Kinnvall narrowly over Francis.

Considered
Johannes Kinnvall
Ryan Francis

I went with Kinnvall for pure upside and for the value of a right shot.

Johannes Kinnvall
A defenceman nobody will mistake for Chris Tanev or Niklas Hjalmarsson, the right-shooting powerplay quarterback brings an exciting up-tempo brand of hockey to table, for better or for worse. Already demonstrating an NHL-caliber ability to command a powerplay, Kinnvall offers the coveted dual-threat from the top of the formation keeping penalty killers from cheating either pass or shoot. And while there is no denying his defensive shortcomings, I think his defensive play is getting somewhat underrated due to circumstance. Consider that Kinnvall played for the worst team in the SHL - the recently relegated HV71 - with sub .900 goaltending and you have a situation where help is not abundant and goaltending was unable to bail the team out. Per pick224, HV71 was outscored 21-16 with Kinnvall on the ice, but 62-26 with him on the bench, for instance. The Flames have a big flashing spot at RD3 but would they use it on a soft, offensively-minded defenceman? Probably not, but maybe he wins the job at camp and we have our own Tyson Barrie for 1/5 of the cost. Let's see.

Ceiling: NHL powerplay QB
Probable: AHL/Euro league all-star (Style: Tyson Barrie)
Floor: Minor leaguer/Euro league all-star

Ryan Francis
Similar to Jakob Pelletier in both height and per-game production, Francis is another "undersized" player who isn't afraid to get to the tough areas of the ice. In fact, this season, a handful of Francis' goals came within an arm's length of the blue paint. Though not possessing notable straight-line speed, Francis can be described using a term that has become prevalent in hockey parlance: a waterbug. In the neutral and offensive zones, Francis has the ability to take advantage of his lower centre of gravity by controlling defenders' feet and hips with shifty and erratic movement. This season, I saw a regression in defensive play from the winger-turned-centre but that was offset by a commensurate progression in offensive ability - Francis actually outpaced the highly-regarded Pelletier albeit by a sliver. All those positives in mind, translating an offence-focused game at 5'10 is more difficult than a defensive-focused game so his time in the AHL will tell us a lot. Wide variance player.

Ceiling: 2nd-line winger
Probable: AHL tweener (Style: Dillon Dube)
Floor: Bust

[united]

Byron Bader's model doesn't reflect Kinnvall's or Phillips' current numbers (beyond D+3) and JFresh/TopDownHockey don't have a card for Kinnvall, so here is the second-place finisher by Byron Bader's model, and second- and third-place from JFresh/TopDownHockey's:

Please note that the criteria each model uses for star and NHLer is different! JFresh/TopDownHockey will almost always be lower than Bader's as their thresholds are a much higher standard so adjust accordingly.

Hockey Prospecting
Calgary's own, and fellow Flames fan, Byron Bader runs the excellent site, Hockey Prospecting. You have likely seen his graphics before. At just $25/year his site is a wonderful resource for any fan interested in prospects. You can register here and support Bader's work if you are interested: https://hockeyprospecting.com/register/

Spoiler!

JFresh/TopDownHockey
JFresh and his partner TopDownHockey introduced their NHLe model this year. You will be familiar with the NHL player graphics they produce regularly. At $7/month the subscription is a no-brainer for any hockey fan. You can register here and support their work if you are interested: https://www.patreon.com/jfreshhockey

Spoiler!

[ricardodw]

Okay maybe I am missing something with these Bader/ Jfresh card, but if they have any value at all them how does anyone that even pays the slightest attention to them even consider Phillips or Heineman or go off the board altogether with Kinnvall ahead of Poirier?

The players that come out of the European leagues are pretty well all elite. They are the best players in the SHL and Liiga in their draft year and/or D+1. They also show well on the national U18 u20 teams.

Last year Valimaki was the best player in liiga , pretty much uncontested, and rather than come across to the NHL and be a solid top-4 is not quite as good as a replacement PTO level Mike Stone. The play in Europe league is overrated.

Nesterov was a top d-man in the KHL for years and that translates to a borderline 5/6 d man on a non-playoff NHL team.