[Signing] Oilers sign Darnell Nurse to extension beginning in 2022 (8 yrs, $9.25 mil AAV)

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Last three years out of 191 defensemen to play 1400+ minutes (191/31 = 6.2 per team)

CA60 154th
SA60 176th
SCA60 157th
HDCA60 161st

and the summary of all of that

xGA60 175th

Here's the beef I have with XGA/60...

Lets take the last three years of Chris Tanev. I filtered out D-men who played less than 700 ES minutes btw.

Tanev's ranking in xGA/60:

20/21- 1st out of 129 D-men.
19/20- 137th out of 164
18/19- 72nd out 176

In the span of three seasons Tanev went from middle of the pack, to one of the worst, to the best in the league.

How do you take useful information about a player's ability out of something like that?

I mean clearly Tanev didn't play at a seventh defender ability in 19/20, and then become the best shutdown defenceman in the league in 20/21, so what is XGA/60 actually measuring?

[wired]

I asked a few guys at work, who are greaser fans, about the signing. And they said that Nurse is definitely not worth that contract. 3 years too long, and 5 million too much.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Here's the beef I have with XGA/60...

Lets take the last three years of Chris Tanev. I filtered out D-men who played less than 700 ES minutes btw.

Tanev's ranking in xGA/60:

20/21- 1st out of 129 D-men.
19/20- 137th out of 164
18/19- 72nd out 176

In the span of three seasons Tanev went from middle of the pack, to one of the worst, to the best in the league.

How do you take useful information about a player's ability out of something like that?

There's not much you can take, except to note that Tanev changed defence partners and then changed teams. It would be more informative to see his WOWYs, but that's a whole ’nother level of complexity and I, for one, don't know the relevant websites well enough to do the homework in a reasonable amount of time.

But when a player is consistently ranked at the bottom of the list, year after year, by a whole group of metrics, it would be lazy not to take something from that.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's measuring shots against, basically. Granted, it's weighting them.

I think if you went and found multiple years of Nurse's xGA data and found there was a significant variance year to year you might have a point, and could reasonably ask "does last year really represent who this player is", the way you can with Tanev... But it doesn't really vary in his case.

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, Tanev's numbers are all over the place, so you have to ask what is changing (lots of things) and what might be causing such significant variances.

On the other hand, Nurse's numbers are very consistent from year to year and throughout the 3 years. So there is certainly more reason to think the evidence is telling you something.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah, Tanev's numbers are all over the place, so you have to ask what is changing (lots of things) and what might be causing such significant variances.

On the other hand, Nurse's numbers are very consistent from year to year and throughout the 3 years. So there is certainly more reason to think the evidence is telling you something.

Well the stat is either a reliable way to measure individual contribution or it isn't.

Maybe Tanev is an extreme outlier and the stat is reliable? If Tanev's situation is the norm however I would suggest that this stat isn't a great measure of individual ability.

If that is the case, I personally wouldn't use it as a standalone stat to determine competence.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well the stat is either a reliable way to measure individual contribution or it isn't.

Maybe Tanev is an extreme outlier and the stat is reliable? If Tanev's situation is the norm however I would suggest that this stat isn't a great measure of individual ability.

If that is the case, I personally wouldn't use it as a standalone stat to determine competence.

Darnell is not good at the defence……. Let’s stop this charade please.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well the stat is either a reliable way to measure individual contribution or it isn't.

Maybe Tanev is an extreme outlier and the stat is reliable? If Tanev's situation is the norm however I would suggest that this stat isn't a great measure of individual ability.

If that is the case, I personally wouldn't use it as a standalone stat to determine competence.

Who is using it as a standalone stat?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Well the stat is either a reliable way to measure individual contribution or it isn't.

Maybe Tanev is an extreme outlier and the stat is reliable? If Tanev's situation is the norm however I would suggest that this stat isn't a great measure of individual ability.

If that is the case, I personally wouldn't use it as a standalone stat to determine competence.

I share your lack of confidence in the stats.

However, I have watched more than enough of Nurse to know that the stats got it right here, even if they did so purely by chance

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It's measuring shots against, basically. Granted, it's weighting them.

I think if you went and found multiple years of Nurse's xGA data and found there was a significant variance year to year you might have a point, and could reasonably ask "does last year really represent who this player is", the way you can with Tanev... But it doesn't really vary in his case.

I know what it measures.

But if a guy in a consistent role has consistent numbers and a guy in changing roles/team has numbers that are all over, then we could deduce that we are measuring usage rather than ability.

I think this year will be an interesting test of this measure if a guy tracks it throughout the season. I would expect Nurse to improve on this stat this season as the Oilers have added a few better puck possession forwards to their roster, and forwards have a bigger impact on the corsi than defencemen.

It will be interesting to see what goes on with Keith as well who has been even worse than Nurse in XGA/60 the past few seasons.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I know what it measures.

But if a guy in a consistent role has consistent numbers and a guy in changing roles/team has numbers that are all over, then we could deduce that we are measuring usage rather than ability.

I think this year will be an interesting test of this measure if a guy tracks it throughout the season. I would expect Nurse to improve on this stat this season as the Oilers have added a few better puck possession forwards to their roster, and forwards have a bigger impact on the corsi than defencemen.

It will be interesting to see what goes on with Keith as well who has been even worse than Nurse in XGA/60 the past few seasons.

What is your actual argument, if you don’t like the state don’t consider it. Nurse is still hot garbage in every single other defensive stat.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sofa GM

What is your actual argument, if you don’t like the state don’t consider it. Nurse is still hot garbage in every single other defensive stat.

And by direct observation

[JackIsBack]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I share your lack of confidence in the stats.

However, I have watched more than enough of Nurse to know that the stats got it right here, even if they did so purely by chance

Totally agree.... I remember when we all thought the Giordano contract was too long.... now I don't think Nurse has the same workout regiment and I don't think he's like Mark in other ways too, but the Oilers can only hope that the contract ages as well as Giordano's did.

For some reason.... the Oilers always overpay.... I though it was Chiarelli and his throwing around money that wasn't his, but maybe I'm wrong, maybe it's someone higher up the chain that's making the decisions over there - I think somehow they think that by paying someone 9 million, that they get an asset worth 9 million, and not one worth 6 million that has been overpaid.

You can go through their lineup and see many of these overpayments... exclude free agent signings (they always seem too high for every team). Sometimes it's workout, like with Draisaitl and even McDavid, but I think Draisaitl would have taken 7 to 7.5 million back then (maybe the Oilers have truly bought into the Oilers tax). Koskinen - would have signed for 3 million if it was another team I thought back then... about the same size contract as we gave Big Save Dave - very comparable back then. Kris Russell's four million contract was about 1 million too high. Nurse's new contract is at least 2 million too high.

So maybe the Oilers tax is real.... 1 million for lower value contracts and 2-3 million for higher ones.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I know what it measures.

But if a guy in a consistent role has consistent numbers and a guy in changing roles/team has numbers that are all over, then we could deduce that we are measuring usage rather than ability.

I think this year will be an interesting test of this measure if a guy tracks it throughout the season. I would expect Nurse to improve on this stat this season as the Oilers have added a few better puck possession forwards to their roster, and forwards have a bigger impact on the corsi than defencemen.

It will be interesting to see what goes on with Keith as well who has been even worse than Nurse in XGA/60 the past few seasons.

Or the stat is telling us that Tanev has up and down years, and Nurse has all down years.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by wired

I asked a few guys at work, who are greaser fans, about the signing. And they said that Nurse is definitely not worth that contract. 3 years too long, and 5 million too much.

Who are these sensible, realistic characters?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Who are these sensible, realistic characters?

I don’t know anyone who likes the contract.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Or the stat is telling us that Tanev has up and down years, and Nurse has all down years.

Nope that stat is clearly broken and is meaningless…..

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I don’t know anyone who likes the contract.

Liar. I love this contract.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Liar. I love this contract.

Cleary Weitz doesn't know you. In fact, you're probably dead to him. Take that as a compliment.

[djsFlames]

I personally am a fan.

Holland has carried on Chiarelli's legacy rather brilliantly, and I think Pete would be proud of his steadfast work this offseason. I'd say the Koskinen contract pales in "wtf" compared to this newly minted Nurse atrocity. It's beautiful, really. Brings a tear of joy to the eye (as one laughs uncontrollably).

Long may the waters be tainted!