[GDT] Flames vs Canucks, 7:00 MDT. Sportsnet West, Fan 960

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Tbull8

Can't we only move up a max 10 spots though? With the new rules. So picking in the top 11 still gives us a shot at 1, whereas 13 only gets us up to 3 if we win it

Sure... but the percentages are extremely low and the top end of the draft doesn't have what we need. I for one am not clamoring for Owen Powers when we all know we need a Wright or Bedard.

Actually, if we won the lottery this year, I'd be kind of pissed. It would feel to me like we wasted our only good luck chip.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

edit* my bad, the "you can only win twice in five years" starts in 2022.

The other changes take effect this draft.

So yeah, we're playing our way out of the lottery for the the top pick, and only #1 and #2 will be part of the lottery. #3 is not a lottery pick this season according to ESPN. If we win more than one of the three remaining games, we're effectively out of the lottery entirely.

All good, I wasn't sure either. Can't say I would be too upset picking 3rd and getting a Beniers/Clarke

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

Sure... but the percentages are extremely low and the top end of the draft doesn't have what we need. I for one am not clamoring for Owen Powers when we all know we need a Wright or Bedard.

Actually, if we won the lottery this year, I'd be kind of pissed. It would feel to me like we wasted our only good luck chip.

Flames have no good luck chip.

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Flames have no good luck chip.

It is sad. Here are the teams to have never have had a 1st OA pick:

Anaheim - have picked 2nd OA twice
Carolina/Hartford - have picked 2nd OA twice
Minnesota - have picked 3rd OA
Nashville - have picked 2nd OA
San Jose - have picked 2nd OA
Vancouver - have picked 2nd OA twice
Calgary - have never picked in the top 3

I firmly believe you need to pick in the top 3 for a guaranteed elite player most years (occasionally you need to pick in the top 2). We absolutely have had that worst drafting luck of any team in the history of the NHL IMO.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

It is sad. Here are the teams to have never have had a 1st OA pick:

Anaheim - have picked 2nd OA twice
Carolina/Hartford - have picked 2nd OA twice
Minnesota - have picked 3rd OA
Nashville - have picked 2nd OA
San Jose - have picked 2nd OA
Vancouver - have picked 2nd OA twice
Calgary - have never picked in the top 3

I firmly believe you need to pick in the top 3 for a guaranteed elite player most years (occasionally you need to pick in the top 2). We absolutely have had that worst drafting luck of any team in the history of the NHL IMO.

Only 3 teams with cups (one apiece), one well before salary cap and two right after it was implemented (and maybe the effects not quite felt yet). Only 5 other finals appearances if my math is right.

I'd be interested in how many other teams haven't drafted 1OA since the cap and their results. Or how many haven't won a cup since they got their 1OA. I know one that's had 4 and still hasn't won a cup.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only 3 teams with cups (one apiece), one well before salary cap and two right after it was implemented (and maybe the effects not quite felt yet). Only 5 other finals appearances if my math is right.

I'd be interested in how many other teams haven't drafted 1OA since the cap and their results. Or how many haven't won a cup since they got their 1OA. I know one that's had 4 and still hasn't won a cup.

Here is a little look at success of top picks

2005: Crosby, Ryan, Johnson, Pouliot
2006: Johnson, Staal, Toews, Backstrom
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pieterangelo
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, G. Reinhart
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Puljujarvi
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen, Makar
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk
2019: Hughes, Kakko, Dach, Byram
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle, Raymond

It definitely takes time to turn teams around...but from that data I'd say Colorado is primed to win multiple Stanley Cups. Florida is in a great position. Toronto and Edmonton should challenge. New Jersey should be a power house in a few years. Chicago is the closest "old" champion to be entering a new wave of competitiveness if Toews and Kane can stay effective.

St. Louis drafted twice at the high end, and won 1 Cup with only 1/2 of those players (they leveraged Johnson in a trade). It's wild to look back at the last decade and a half and see the Stanley Cup go to so few teams.

Pittsburgh x3
Chicago x3
LA x2
Tampa x1
Boston x1
St. Louis x1
Washington x1
Carolina x1
Anaheim x1
Detroit x1

Also, three of the x1 winners were the first three seasons that had a salary cap, and those teams then either fell apart or never really competed at that level again. The last twelve years were effectively dominated by Chicago, Pittsburgh and LA. Ovechkin and Backstrom's reign in Washington has always kept them near the top as well, and Tampa with Stamkos and Hedman in a similar fashion in recent years.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

It is sad. Here are the teams to have never have had a 1st OA pick:

Anaheim - have picked 2nd OA twice
Carolina/Hartford - have picked 2nd OA twice
Minnesota - have picked 3rd OA
Nashville - have picked 2nd OA
San Jose - have picked 2nd OA
Vancouver - have picked 2nd OA twice
Calgary - have never picked in the top 3

I firmly believe you need to pick in the top 3 for a guaranteed elite player most years (occasionally you need to pick in the top 2). We absolutely have had that worst drafting luck of any team in the history of the NHL IMO.

I've always wondered about this but have been too lazy to check.
Thanks for going ahead and finding these.

Calgary, Hartford and Vancouver are far older than the rest of the teams as well.

I would also add that the Arizona Coyotes have never picked top 2. But they've picked 3rd OA twice. Their predecessor, the Jets, picked 1st OA once and 2nd OA once.

But if we're including predecessors, then the Flames have picked 2nd OA twice as well.

[Monahammer]

Pittsburgh x3 Top 3 picks since 2004: 4 (2 x 1st, 1x 2nd) none since 2006
Chicago x3 Top 3 Picks since 2004: 4 (1 x 1st, 3x 3rd)
LA x2 Top 3 picks since 2004: 2 (2 x 2nd) *Only doughty was around for their competitive time
Tampa x1 Top 3 picks since 2004: 3 (1x 1st, 1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)
Boston x1 Top3 Picks since 2004: 1 (2nd)
St. Louis x1 top 3 picks since 2004: 1 (1st)
Washington x1 top 3 picks since 2004: 1 (1st)
Carolina x1 Top 3 picks since 2004: 2 (1 x 2nd, 1x 3rd) Eric Staal at 2nd overall just misses the cut in 2003
Anaheim x1 Top 3 picks since 2004: 1 (2nd)
Detroit x1 0 BUT DESPERATELY TRYING TO GET ONE RIGHT NOW.

You can't win a stanley cup without drafting in the top 3 in the cap era. It doesn't happen. Every one of these teams also had multiple top 5 and top 10 picks too.

[Vinny01]

I don’t agree with the Boston take who won when their 2nd overall pick was a rookie and played in only half of their playoff games.

Flames just need to trade for Eichel then they get their top 3 pick

[Drunk Uncle]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only 3 teams with cups (one apiece), one well before salary cap and two right after it was implemented (and maybe the effects not quite felt yet). Only 5 other finals appearances if my math is right.

I'd be interested in how many other teams haven't drafted 1OA since the cap and their results. Or how many haven't won a cup since they got their 1OA. I know one that's had 4 and still hasn't won a cup.

I see that it took me so long to write this a bunch of folks noted the same thing I did.

Here’s a look at notable picks from cup winning teams from 2010 until now:
Tampa: Hedman (2nd OA), Stamkos (1st OA), Drouin (3rd OA)
LA: Doughty (2nd OA), Kopitar (11th OA)
Washington: Ovechkin (1st OA), Backstrom (4th OA)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (1st OA), Malkin (2nd OA), Flurey (1st OA)
Chicago: Kane (1st OA), Toews (3rd OA)
Boston: Bergeron (45th OA), Marchand (71st OA), Seguin (2nd OA)

What’s interesting to me is that it appears you need multiple top 3 draft picks or to luck out on your picks to become a perennial contender/cup winner. The only teams bucking that trend are Boston and to a lesser degree LA. I would say those 2 teams got super lucky on a couple of their picks in that that got top 3 draft pick talent later in the draft.

In the last 10 years St. Louis is the only team that has won a cup that’d I’d argue was not a perennial contender.

How this pertains to the flames: for me it means going all in on a guy like Eichel while keeping Gaudreau; if that doesn’t work, take a swing and see if we can be a St. Louis under Sutter (longshot but worth a try IMO); and if that fails, blow it up for Bedard.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

. It's wild to look back at the last decade and a half and see the Stanley Cup go to so few teams.

.

76-88: 13 years. 3 teams won
74-93: 20 years. 6 teams won

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

I see that it took me so long to write this a bunch of folks noted the same thing I did.

Here’s a look at notable picks from cup winning teams from 2010 until now:
Tampa: Hedman (2nd OA), Stamkos (1st OA), Drouin (3rd OA)
LA: Doughty (2nd OA), Kopitar (11th OA)
Washington: Ovechkin (1st OA), Backstrom (4th OA)
Pittsburgh: Crosby (1st OA), Malkin (2nd OA), Flurey (1st OA)
Chicago: Kane (1st OA), Toews (3rd OA)
Boston: Bergeron (45th OA), Marchand (71st OA), Seguin (2nd OA)

What’s interesting to me is that it appears you need multiple top 3 draft picks or to luck out on your picks to become a perennial contender/cup winner. The only teams bucking that trend are Boston and to a lesser degree LA. I would say those 2 teams got super lucky on a couple of their picks in that that got top 3 draft pick talent later in the draft.

In the last 10 years St. Louis is the only team that has won a cup that’d I’d argue was not a perennial contender.

How this pertains to the flames: for me it means going all in on a guy like Eichel while keeping Gaudreau; if that doesn’t work, take a swing and see if we can be a St. Louis under Sutter (longshot but worth a try IMO); and if that fails, blow it up for Bedard.

I think the reason LA and Boston won cups, despite being slight exceptions to the top 3 rule, is because they both had utterly ridiculous goaltending (Thomas 94% in 2011, Quick 94.6% in 2012).

So we agree that teams don't win cups without top 3 picks. It doesn't happen.
You also don't win a cup without elite center depth. St. Louis is a slight exception.
Teams also don't win cups with UFA signed goalies. That hasn't happened in 50 years.
While we're at it, Canadian teams just don't win cups. That hasn't happened in 28 years.

None of these things look good for Calgary.

[Wolfman]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I think the reason LA and Boston won cups, despite being slight exceptions to the top 3 rule, is because they both had utterly ridiculous goaltending (Thomas 94% in 2011, Quick 94.6% in 2012).

So we agree that teams don't win cups without top 3 picks. It doesn't happen.
You also don't win a cup without elite center depth. St. Louis is a slight exception.
Teams also don't win cups with UFA signed goalies. That hasn't happened in 50 years.
While we're at it, Canadian teams just don't win cups. That hasn't happened in 28 years.

None of these things look good for Calgary.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I think the reason LA and Boston won cups, despite being slight exceptions to the top 3 rule, is because they both had utterly ridiculous goaltending (Thomas 94% in 2011, Quick 94.6% in 2012).

So we agree that teams don't win cups without top 3 picks. It doesn't happen.
You also don't win a cup without elite center depth. St. Louis is a slight exception.
Teams also don't win cups with UFA signed goalies. That hasn't happened in 50 years.
While we're at it, Canadian teams just don't win cups. That hasn't happened in 28 years.

None of these things look good for Calgary.

Was Tim Thomas a Boston draft pick?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Was Tim Thomas a Boston draft pick?

Fun fact time!!

Nordiques draft pick.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Fun fact time!!

Nordiques draft pick.

So it was only 10 years since a UFA goalie won the cup?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Drunk Uncle

It is sad. Here are the teams to have never have had a 1st OA pick:

Anaheim - have picked 2nd OA twice
Carolina/Hartford - have picked 2nd OA twice
Minnesota - have picked 3rd OA
Nashville - have picked 2nd OA
San Jose - have picked 2nd OA
Vancouver - have picked 2nd OA twice
Calgary - have never picked in the top 3

I firmly believe you need to pick in the top 3 for a guaranteed elite player most years (occasionally you need to pick in the top 2). We absolutely have had that worst drafting luck of any team in the history of the NHL IMO.

Need to find a way to get a young 2OA on the roster...a 2OA that would have been 1 most years

[dino7c]

Vegas should pack it in...UFA goalies don't win the cup

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

So it was only 10 years since a UFA goalie won the cup?

People with zero NHL experience aren't really UFAs imo. Otherwise that opens a whole other can of worms that includes almost everyone who ever lived.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Vegas should pack it in...UFA goalies don't win the cup

I don't think Vegas will win anything.

I think when it comes down to it their centre depth will get exposed every time. They may battle and compete and be right on the brink, but I don't think they'll ever get over that final hump.