2021 Magic Number

[transplant99]

Here is a visual of it all.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Here is a visual of it all.

Thanks Tranny.
Very helpful!

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Reggie28

Also, all respect to Goriders (puke) for starting this thread. Lol. Go Stamps. Eventually.

Ha I get it. We’ll see if there’s a season first.

I think the last 9 or 10 games just got a lot more interesting. If the flames beat the habs again monday I bet the habs fall off the map.

The last 4 games between the canucks and flames will essentially be the start of the playoffs. Hopefully the other teams can help us out.

[Wastedyouth]

Montreal has the murderers row to finish off the season. The Flames have a much easier matchup.

There is a chance here. The team needs to play balls to the wall every, single, game.

[Nelson]

The Flames need to win Monday, and they will probably need to get 6-8 out of 8 points against Vancouver at the end of the year to make it. It’s going to be really tough, but I think they may be able to do it because MTL and VAN have been the Flames’ best opponents this year.

[MrMike]

We always play well against Vancouver and Markstrom plays like a man with a grudge against them so far. If we win our game tomorrow I say it’s a 50/50 chance for us to get in.

[GS Skier]

2 in Edmonton against Edmonton will factor in as well. Battles of Aberta can go either way and were "hot" ?? right now and ALWAYS motivated to play them. With Calgary playing meaningful games while the Oil are already in those 2 falling our way could cement it regardless of vancouver. Win the tough ones!

[3rd Degree]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Here is a visual of it all.

The Flames have a beautiful remaining schedule! If they beat Montreal tomorrow, they’ll have a great chance of making the playoffs. Everyone else plays a condensed schedule, while the Flames’ is spread out perfectly for Markstrom to start every remaining game. They get the Oilers, Senators, and Canucks on the 2nd night of a back to back. Their 1st game remaining against the Canucks will be Vancouver’s 3rd game in 4 nights near the end of a road trip.

The Flames have 1 set of back to back games.
The Habs have 2 sets of back to back games.
The Canucks have 5 sets of back to back games!

The Flames play 3 games against current playoff teams after the Montreal game.
The Habs play 7 games against current playoff teams.
The Canucks play 9 games against current playoff teams.

The Flames play 9 games in 24 days.
The Habs play 10 games in 17 days.
The Canucks play 15 games in 24 days.

Everything is coming up Millhouse!

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I think the canucks will pass both the flames and habs. I will add them into the mix.

Vancouver has a brutal schedule with EDMx4 and TO & WPG x 2 plus little time between games due to COVID catchup. They might get on a mighty roll but I doubt it. I figure the last 4 games vs Calgary will be a winner-takes-all series but they’ll split instead and let MTL take the spot.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Vancouver has a brutal schedule with EDMx4 and TO & WPG x 2 plus little time between games due to COVID catchup. They might get on a mighty roll but I doubt it. I figure the last 4 games vs Calgary will be a winner-takes-all series but they’ll split instead and let MTL take the spot.

I actually see the 4 against Edmonton as a problem for Calgary.

That’s a series, they will be focused on one team all week knowing it could give them a playoff spot. I expect that we quickly see Edmonton exposed for what they are, especially since they’re already in.

[Goriders]

It’s essentially playoff hockey starting now.

At least the stretch run games will have some meaning.

[Goriders]

Adding the canucks in.

Magic number for flames to eliminate habs 12
Magic number for habs to eminate the flames 8

Magic number for flames to eliminate canucks 13
Magic number for canucks to eliminate foames 12

If the flames win tomorrow it’s essentially a 3 horse race for the last playoff spot.

[Mull]

If we win today, the "all but statically eliminated" argument should be temporary thrown out the window.

3 teams - 1 spot.

Vancouver- we play 4 of our 9 remaining games against them, they play top of the division teams, and they currently have a GF/GA diff of -17. Rational thought doesn't prevail that our odds vs them of making the playoffs is a snowballs chance in hell for the flames. Far from a sure thing, but that isn't the same as "all but statically eliminated".

Habs- if we win today in regulation, they are ahead by 2 points, plus 1 game in hand. With a loss today, they remain 3-7 in their last 10 if my math is correct. They then have a much tougher schedule.

Win today Flames, and even the most argumentative people would need to admit this is a playoff race. Loose today and well....

[Goriders]

I’ll keep doing this until the math is done.

But the magic number is 6 now (mtl wins or flames losses)

With 8 games left. Montreal will probably win 4 or 5. So the flames will most likely have to win out. Maybe one or two losses if they get a lot of help.

There’s no way that will happen. Not with this team.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Goriders

I’ll keep doing this until the math is done.

But the magic number is 6 now (mtl wins or flames losses)

With 8 games left. Montreal will probably win 4 or 5. So the flames will most likely have to win out. Maybe one or two losses if they get a lot of help.

There’s no way that will happen. Not with this team.

To summarize the path based on your magic number of 6:

Calgary has 8 games left, Montreal has 9

So - Montreal goes 4-5 and Calgary 7-1?
Or - Montreal 3-6 and Calgary 6-2? - This would increase Vancouver chances to leapfrog depending on where the losses are and their record.

Ouch.

[Always Earned Never Given]

Originally Posted by Mull

To summarize the path based on your magic number of 6:

Calgary has 8 games left, Montreal has 9

So - Montreal goes 4-5 and Calgary 7-1?
Or - Montreal 3-6 and Calgary 6-2? - This would increase Vancouver chances to leapfrog depending on where the losses are and their record.

Ouch.

Before beating the Flames yesterday, Mtl's record was 3-6. Toronto and Ottawa really play the Habs tough. Winnipeg also but gave them too many loser points.

Speaking of losers, maybe they can take at least one from MTL as they are 1-5 against them so far.

Best case scenario is Cgy needs to win the 4 before the Vancouver series. They then would be 4 points back and ???? points ahead or back of the Canucks so it could be an epic series...Either team maybe only needing 4 points to get in.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Mull

To summarize the path based on your magic number of 6:

Calgary has 8 games left, Montreal has 9

So - Montreal goes 4-5 and Calgary 7-1?
Or - Montreal 3-6 and Calgary 6-2? - This would increase Vancouver chances to leapfrog depending on where the losses are and their record.

Ouch.

3-6 would match the worst nine game stretches Montreal has had this season, while 6-2 would be the best eight game stretch Calgary has played all year.

Obviously it's possible.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Itse

3-6 would match the worst nine game stretches Montreal has had this season, while 6-2 would be the best eight game stretch Calgary has played all year.

Obviously it's possible.

Who said it wasn't possible?

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Mull

To summarize the path based on your magic number of 6:

Calgary has 8 games left, Montreal has 9

So - Montreal goes 4-5 and Calgary 7-1?
Or - Montreal 3-6 and Calgary 6-2? - This would increase Vancouver chances to leapfrog depending on where the losses are and their record.

Ouch.

Essentially unless the Habs totally fall off the map the Flames are probably going to have to win out. Maybe 1 or 2 losses. But we’d have to get a lot of help.

I think the canucks have a better shot than the flames at this point.

The loss last night was a knife through the heart. Win that one and it would have been a 3 horse race.

[dino7c]

Stay within eight points, sweep the Canucks series. They will be on fumes by then

It's the only way.

Worrying about the Canucks is pointless Flames will need to beat them to get enough points anyway