[GDT] Flames @ Toronto, 5:00 PM MST. Sportsnet, 960 The Fan

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm sure there are better metrics in the pipeline to really separate these things out, but as it stands you're not quite correct above.

If the goalie is set, and there isn't a pass, deflection or tip it's not a high danger chance, it's merely a "scoring chance"

The Flames (5 on 5) are ranked 5th in the league in "scoring chances" (any shot of any kind from the home plate area), and they're ranked 4th in terms of high danger chances (home plate on a tip, rebound or pass).

Their high danger shooting percentage however is 23rd.

I don't think they have the horses.

A shot’s Danger is then defined by this method:

Start with the zone in which the shot attempt was recorded, 1 through 3.
Add 1 if it was a rebound or a rush shot.
Subtract 1 if it was a blocked shot.
Increase to 1 if it was equal to 0.

http://blog.war-on-ice.com/category/...nfo/index.html

I take your point that there is a differentiation made in quality of chance but I does not look very sophisticated to me (from this).

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm sure there are better metrics in the pipeline to really separate these things out, but as it stands you're not quite correct above.

If the goalie is set, and there isn't a pass, deflection or tip it's not a high danger chance, it's merely a "scoring chance"

The Flames (5 on 5) are ranked 5th in the league in "scoring chances" (any shot of any kind from the home plate area), and they're ranked 4th in terms of high danger chances (home plate on a tip, rebound or pass).

Their high danger shooting percentage however is 23rd.

I don't think they have the horses.

Did they have the horses in 2018-19 when they were 7th?
Did they have the horses in 2015-16 when they were 11th?
Did they have fhe horses in 2014-15 when they were 4th?

I don't think it's a coincidence that when the coaches have them playing uptempo hockey, they seem to have the horses.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

It's my best hockey skill.

Me too! I once played a season where I hit the post every single frickin’ game. Couldn’t believe it.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But then isn't missing the net a skill thing too?

100% it is. If I was in the NHL I would practice my shot as much as possible as it's a great asset to have. Maybe this also comes back to the individuals on this teams will to win or lack thereof.

Backlund seems especially bad at missing the net a ton to the point where sometimes I get embarrassed for the guy. It has to be deflating.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Did they have the horses in 2018-19 when they were 7th?
Did they have the horses in 2015-16 when they were 11th?
Did they have fhe horses in 2014-15 when they were 4th?

I don't think it's a coincidence that when the coaches have them playing uptempo hockey, they seem to have the horses.

Yeah, I think a lot of it has to do with the ability to create and exploit outnumbered situations.

Mobile D helps that a lot

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you're 4th in HD chances, and 23rd in goals, there are 3 potential issues:

1) bad luck
2) bad shooters
3) your HD chances aren't as high quality

No doubt #1 is a factor, but I doubt it explains the whole thing (or we'll see the floodgates open at some point). I don't buy #2, because that would have shown up before this year.

That leaves #3, which is what I believe the problem is. The Flames are working the offensive zone from the outside - forecheck, move it around the outside, and then try and get a pass into the middle. They are creating a lot of those plays, but they aren't dangerous because the forward is covered (the D is set).

5on5 chances, when the D is set, are usually not dangerous. High danger chances off the rush are way more dangerous

Is this not the case after Gulutzan's last year? People were like we need more snipers. Frolik in his end of year said something about type of chances and not just shooting. That team had pretty good metrics even though poor production.

Peters comes in and that season (18-19) loads of offense (+62 differential). They made plays.

[Enoch Root]

Yup. (re DeluxeMoustache)

And I go back to the EDM game. Lots of zone time 5on5, generating lots of shots.

Meanwhile, many of EDM's chances were off the rush or turnovers - much more dangerous

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

Is this not the case after Gulutzan's last year? People were like we need more snipers. Frolik in his end of year said something about type of chances and not just shooting. That team had pretty good metrics even though poor production.

Peters comes in and that season (18-19) loads of offense (+62 differential). They made plays.

exactly - we were talented when Hartley was the coach

we were apparently talentless when Gulutzan was the coach

then we were talented again under Peters (for a while)

and now we are talentless again, under Ward

Same core, more or less. And I would argue this is the most talented team of the last 4 years (8 or 10 years).

Style of paly matters.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Both very true.

Remember that one year (three years ago?) where they led the league in goal posts and cross bars?

But then isn't missing the net a skill thing too?

I think that was last Gully year too. If you're shooting against set goalies you are trying to hit small spots because you see no net.

Make plays (get the d active in offensive zone or just move it around), get the opponent moving, get their goalie moving : see more net -> shoot at bigger target.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Did they have the horses in 2018-19 when they were 7th?
Did they have the horses in 2015-16 when they were 11th?
Did they have fhe horses in 2014-15 when they were 4th?

I don't think it's a coincidence that when the coaches have them playing uptempo hockey, they seem to have the horses.

Same coach had them in 2018-19 and 2019-20 to start the year and the numbers were completely opposite.

2018-19 was a everything goes right year, which is pretty hard to duplicate (Peters couldn't).

2019-20 was the opposite.

I suspected some regression to the middle and I think we've seen that to some degree, but a different coach could certainly be a wrinkle.

I honestly think when you see debates like the big one these days (bad coach bad players) more often than not both are right and it's both.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Same coach had them in 2018-19 and 2019-20 to start the year and the numbers were completely opposite.

2018-19 was a everything goes right year, which is pretty hard to duplicate (Peters couldn't).

2019-20 was the opposite.

I suspected some regression to the middle and I think we've seen that to some degree, but a different coach could certainly be a wrinkle.

I honestly think when you see debates like the big one these days (bad coach bad players) more often than not both are right and it's both.

There was a distinct break point during the 2018-19 season and I think it had something to do with purple Gatorade

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hockey is funny that way.

The Flames probably played a better game in a lot of areas in the 7-1 loss to the Oilers than they did against the Leafs, but they got the goaltending and the bounces, and a superstar didn't go off on an epic night.

The 7-1 loss featured the Flames

Highest shot attempts on the season
Highest shots on the season
2nd Highest expected goals for 5 on 5
Highest scoring chances / 60
Highest high danger / 60
Highest CF%
Highest shot split
4th highest xGF split
3rd highest HD split
Worst PDO
Worst SV%

They lost 7-1.

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

But those shots weren’t all that dangerous. Lots in the bread basket, from all locations including many ‘high danger’

Stats don’t reflect what happened with the eye test

But the results probably also have a lot to do with the fact that the Flames were missing one of their most important scoring forwards. I am willing to bet that the conversion rates in the Edmonton game would have been higher with Monahan in the lineup.

[hwy19man]

Pregame links
http://sportsstats.cbc.ca/hockey/nhl...preview_3.html
https://scores.nbcsports.com/nhl/preview.asp?g=2021022421&home=21&vis=3
http://sportsstats.cbc.ca/hockey/nhl-matchups.aspx?page=/data/NHL/matchups/g2_summary_3.html

[dammage79]

Alright. Last game was good. I watched the whole thing!

But.....consistency is the issue. I'm hoping we see that good play again. I can deal with losses, I can't deal with sloppy lacksadaisical losses.

End of the day, there's 40 games give or take left in the season. And there's plenty of time to get rolling in the right direction and hopefully peak for a strong playoff push.

Lofty hopes. But...consistency.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Same coach had them in 2018-19 and 2019-20 to start the year and the numbers were completely opposite.

2018-19 was a everything goes right year, which is pretty hard to duplicate (Peters couldn't).

2019-20 was the opposite.

I suspected some regression to the middle and I think we've seen that to some degree, but a different coach could certainly be a wrinkle.

I honestly think when you see debates like the big one these days (bad coach bad players) more often than not both are right and it's both.

If the regression trends towards the middle, I imagine that's the case for most teams in the league unless they have a Ovechkin or Kucherov who single-handedly drives percentages the way those players do especially on the powerplay. If that's your definition of "horses" maybe we don't have the horses. But I'm not convinced a team needs that calibre of "horse" to have consistent regular or postseason success.

I would say this team has the "horses" to consistently be in the upper half of leaguewide scoring.

Sure, there's room for variance, but the variance we've seen here tends to directly correlate to the style of play. And I'm not sure we played the same style pre and post-ASB in 2019, either. I believe there was a system change implemented to get the then-high GAA down.

[Flame On]