[Signing] Flames sign Chris Tanev (4 years, $4.5 million AAV)

[Robbob]

NBA over Christmas is a big thing apparently. Whereas the NHL players have a Christams break written in to the CBA. They would need to get some sort of agreement to work around that. Might as well just start some sort of training camp after the Christmas break.

Additional issue is the whole quarantine after travel. I forget how long that process took getting players back to their city prior to the hub.

[Bingo]

Bump for an interesting article on Tanev's start in Calgary with an underlying stats community member eating crow.

HB Analytics : Tanev Revenge Tour

Thought it was interesting in light of the stats conversation yesterday.

The numbers in Vancouver were true ... not made up, or spun in any way. So to say Tanev wasn't or isn't good was certainly supported. But to 100% think you can project based on what has happened has a lot of variables, the most important at the time being the age curve, and how things can only get worse.

Instead they opine that Tanev is with a partner he's more suited for, and with that both have had their numbers jump.

It was true that Tanev had bad numbers.
It was true that Hughes had better numbers without Tanev.

But it could also be true that Hughes high risk activity, was a nightmare for Tanev's playing style.

Will be interesting to watch.

[Vinny01]

I can’t believe how awesome Tanev has been. Absolute perfect fit for the team and it really shows by how well Hanifin has played this year. It would have been a shame to move Hanifin and see him blossom elsewhere.

Not to derail from the Tanev talk too much but that blockbuster with the Hurricanes still looks to me to be the best move Treliving has made. Instead of losing Fox for picks or nothing, Ferland for nothing, or be in the midst of a contract yesr with Hamilton the Flames have their number 1C and number 3/4 D continue to get better and have 3 years each left on their contracts.

I do give Tanev a huge amount of credit for being part of Hanifin’s rise this year.

[the-rasta-masta]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I can’t believe how awesome Tanev has been. Absolute perfect fit for the team and it really shows by how well Hanifin has played this year. It would have been a shame to move Hanifin and see him blossom elsewhere.

Not to derail from the Tanev talk too much but that blockbuster with the Hurricanes still looks to me to be the best move Treliving has made. Instead of losing Fox for picks or nothing, Ferland for nothing, or be in the midst of a contract yesr with Hamilton the Flames have their number 1C and number 3/4 D continue to get better and have 3 years each left on their contracts.

I do give Tanev a huge amount of credit for being part of Hanifin’s rise this year.

Tanev has certainly been a real bright spot as a free agent signing so far. Not only his play on the ice, but staying after practice to work on things with the younger guys certainly go a long way in showing what kind of a leader he is. Very happy to have him on the team.

With that said, I think Hanifin deserves a lot of credit himself as he really came into this season with a renewed confidence and a concerted effort through the offseason to make himself a better and more consistent NHL defensemen. He is looking like an incredible steal, and when you actually look at his age and the amount of games he has already played in the leagues, we hope to have a strong number three defensemen at the very least who only looks to continue to grow.

[Funkhouser]

With his play, does anyone see us protecting Tanev over Gio in the expansion draft??

I would have never guessed it beforehand, but I am on the fence.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

With his play, does anyone see us protecting Tanev over Gio in the expansion draft??

I would have never guessed it beforehand, but I am on the fence.

You protect Tanev all day, every day, over one more year of aging and expensive Gio. And likely a forward gets taken anyway.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Bump for an interesting article on Tanev's start in Calgary with an underlying stats community member eating crow.

HB Analytics : Tanev Revenge Tour

Thought it was interesting in light of the stats conversation yesterday.

The numbers in Vancouver were true ... not made up, or spun in any way. So to say Tanev wasn't or isn't good was certainly supported. But to 100% think you can project based on what has happened has a lot of variables, the most important at the time being the age curve, and how things can only get worse.

Instead they opine that Tanev is with a partner he's more suited for, and with that both have had their numbers jump.

It was true that Tanev had bad numbers.
It was true that Hughes had better numbers without Tanev.

But it could also be true that Hughes high risk activity, was a nightmare for Tanev's playing style.

Will be interesting to watch.

The chart in that article about zone entries / entry defense is such a shame. As much as I disliked Gulutzan, we were among the top of the league in those categories when he was here. Now it seems we don't even have a neutral zone plan.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

So here are my thoughts on this signing:

- I used to really liked Chris Tanev's defensive play
- I don't know if he's still that good, because I barely watched the Canucks last year. when I did I was too busy oohing and aahing about Pettersson and shutting the game off because I want Pettersson on my team
- The numbers suggest he's declined rapidly
- Maybe he has, or maybe Gaudette, Sutter, beagle etc... - the Canucks' bottom sixers - are responsible for the decline in the shot metrics.
- I'm curious to see stats on zone entry denial. To me this is what separates wheat from the chaff for defensemen - gap control.
- hearing his skating has declined is concerning. Giordano's skating hasn't exactlty improved either
- Right now, I'm hopeful Tanev can slot in across from Valimaki or Kylington as those two can really glide around
- the AAV seems a bit steep for a defensive defenseman.
- the term might be a year too much
- i don't trust Flames pro scouting, but I also know I used to like the player every time I watched him, and not for those silly heart and soul nonsense reasons but because he had a fantastic stick and positioning. But if his skating has really declined that may not be the case.

Here's my thoughts now:

He's still pretty good and the bolded is probably why he (on-paper) sucked in Van

[Jeff Lebowski]

What I'm curious to know but will probably never learn is why CGY has been correct. In that, I'm wondering if there is a layer(s) of sophistication with CGY's analytics (Chris Snow's FlamesVision) that are beyond the level of analysis used in public (non team, non proprietary).

My view of analytics has always been they are very useful (I very much understand and appreciate their value as a part of the debate) but what is currently used (and how used) is rather unsophisticated.

Even with Snow (best wishes to him), when he has spoken about analytics he uses language that people miss - analyzing in 3 dimensions in real time etc. This is really intriguing to me. What does he mean?

I mean it could have been CGY loved Tanev's intangibles for all I know but I think it's more - it's in their proprietary analysis. I could be wrong but at the end of the day I like Tanev so who cares!

[Enoch Root]

Chris Tanev's stats comparisons, from VAN last year to CGY this year, are a perfect illustration of the fact that context matters for these stats.

Just taking the stats as is, and saying this player is better ta that player, or this player's play has deteriorated, COMPLETELY ignores that context. The stats are what they are, but the conclusions drawn from them are all but worthless.

You can't compare the stats of this defenseman, on this team, with this partner, used in these situations, against another defenseman on a different team, with a different partner, used in different situations.

Again, that's the problem with these stats - people don't understand their limitations, and jump straight to conclusions

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

What I'm curious to know but will probably never learn is why CGY has been correct. In that, I'm wondering if there is a layer(s) of sophistication with CGY's analytics (Chris Snow's FlamesVision) that are beyond the level of analysis used in public (non team, non proprietary).

My view of analytics has always been they are very useful (I very much understand and appreciate their value as a part of the debate) but what is currently used (and how used) is rather unsophisticated.

Even with Snow (best wishes to him), when he has spoken about analytics he uses language that people miss - analyzing in 3 dimensions in real time etc. This is really intriguing to me. What does he mean?

I mean it could have been CGY loved Tanev's intangibles for all I know but I think it's more - it's in their proprietary analysis. I could be wrong but at the end of the day I like Tanev so who cares!

I don't think that they are 'correct' because of different analytics, I think they are 'correct' because they have him in a role in which he is being successful.

The Flames are no better at this than any other team - you try new guys in certain roles and hope it works. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't.

It is not an exact science.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Chris Tanev's stats comparisons, from VAN last year to CGY this year, are a perfect illustration of the fact that context matters for these stats.

Just taking the stats as is, and saying this player is better ta that player, or this player's play has deteriorated, COMPLETELY ignores that context. The stats are what they are, but the conclusions drawn from them are all but worthless.

You can't compare the stats of this defenseman, on this team, with this partner, used in these situations, against another defenseman on a different team, with a different partner, used in different situations.

Again, that's the problem with these stats - people don't understand their limitations, and jump straight to conclusions

Kind of makes you wonder what an advanced stat turd like Ristolainen might look like if he ends up on a different roster in the next couple of seasons.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't think that they are 'correct' because of different analytics, I think they are 'correct' because they have him in a role in which he is being successful.

The Flames are no better at this than any other team - you try new guys in certain roles and hope it works. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't.

It is not an exact science.

You may be right but the article states CGY banked on reputation and intangibles (that may be what it is) but I do think CGY does have a more sophisticated (more resourced) department compared to the public domain. It reads to me like the public domain has the best info so it has to be intangibles etc. That is a position that lacks intellectual humility imo. Again, they could be correct teams will guard their decision making process vigorously and ambiguity is very good.

I don't agree that all teams have the same or are any better. It's all about resource allocation and some teams will be more into it than others consequently the output will be different.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jeff Lebowski

What I'm curious to know but will probably never learn is why CGY has been correct. In that, I'm wondering if there is a layer(s) of sophistication with CGY's analytics (Chris Snow's FlamesVision) that are beyond the level of analysis used in public (non team, non proprietary).

My view of analytics has always been they are very useful (I very much understand and appreciate their value as a part of the debate) but what is currently used (and how used) is rather unsophisticated.

Even with Snow (best wishes to him), when he has spoken about analytics he uses language that people miss - analyzing in 3 dimensions in real time etc. This is really intriguing to me. What does he mean?

I mean it could have been CGY loved Tanev's intangibles for all I know but I think it's more - it's in their proprietary analysis. I could be wrong but at the end of the day I like Tanev so who cares!

They definitely have their own data / models and are not using public information (maybe they do as a double check).

So yeah I'd love to believe that Calgary now has a leg up with their own data, and will crush it going forward.

But the guy was hired in 2011, it would take time to get all that data up and running, but the team brought in Troy Brouwer and James Neal with him in the office.

Faulty model? Wasn't listened to?

We will never know I would assume.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Chris Tanev's stats comparisons, from VAN last year to CGY this year, are a perfect illustration of the fact that context matters for these stats.

Just taking the stats as is, and saying this player is better ta that player, or this player's play has deteriorated, COMPLETELY ignores that context. The stats are what they are, but the conclusions drawn from them are all but worthless.

You can't compare the stats of this defenseman, on this team, with this partner, used in these situations, against another defenseman on a different team, with a different partner, used in different situations.

Again, that's the problem with these stats - people don't understand their limitations, and jump straight to conclusions

It's what kind of conclusions people make.

If it's kept to what the data actually tells you it's all perfectly factual. "Chris Tanev had a tough year in Vancouver" is correct. You're right though that how he's used, who he plays with ... and the strength of the team itself are just a few variables that change it.

So if you're acquiring a player who had a year like that you had better pay attention to it. Then in house ... can you come up with a reason things will be different in your city? If not do you have data that's different?

Otherwise being leery bad seasons, age and trends is a pretty good way to go.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I can’t believe how awesome Tanev has been. Absolute perfect fit for the team and it really shows by how well Hanifin has played this year. It would have been a shame to move Hanifin and see him blossom elsewhere.

Not to derail from the Tanev talk too much but that blockbuster with the Hurricanes still looks to me to be the best move Treliving has made. Instead of losing Fox for picks or nothing, Ferland for nothing, or be in the midst of a contract yesr with Hamilton the Flames have their number 1C and number 3/4 D continue to get better and have 3 years each left on their contracts.

I do give Tanev a huge amount of credit for being part of Hanifin’s rise this year.

He may not be logging the minutes of a number one, but IMO Hanifin has been the best D on the team. It's been really encouraging to see his growth. Obviously Tanev has been a huge part of that.

[Red]

Paul Maurice mocked the advanced stats that are out there in the open when he talked about Wheeler. I am sure teams look at different stats.

And I am pretty sure "intangibles" were on the radar when they looked at Tanev. His smile screams "warrior" :-)

[Enoch Root]

Yes, the Flames have their own data. No doubt every team has their own proprietary analytics.

As someone who has lived a career of trying to develop better analytics, to compete with others who are doing the same thing, I would suggest that it is pretty unlikely that theirs are significantly better than other teams'.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Bingo

They definitely have their own data / models and are not using public information (maybe they do as a double check).

So yeah I'd love to believe that Calgary now has a leg up with their own data, and will crush it going forward.

But the guy was hired in 2011, it would take time to get all that data up and running, but the team brought in Troy Brouwer and James Neal with him in the office.

Faulty model? Wasn't listened to?

We will never know I would assume.

Good points. This is all obviously speculation but what if the use has continued to evolve with CGY. Like there was more weight to gut and intangibles so those other guys were signed despite what Snow may have presented as info to consider. Treliving upon introspection and assessment learns, adapts and weights his analytics (which is continually evolving too) more. I see this could go on and on in circles and maybe I'm hoping for a secret sauce but as it's been pointed out - not an exact science and dealing with human beings will always be complex.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Does Tanev chew gum when he plays?