Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[rain_e]

Lining up for silver? Market crash coming soon

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

To me, I would lean towards it means nothing at all, though people may make it mean something. Total mined doesn't really have anything to do with the market of a resource I would think you would want to compare availability, cost of discovery and extraction, and market demand to determine if the resource is at fair value.

Gold is also more coveted. Rarity doesn't dictate price. Demand does.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

Gold is also more coveted. Rarity doesn't dictate price. Demand does.

The rarity of a resource 100% helps dictates prices, it is an input into the supply part of the supply and demand. If you have equal demand; however, one resource is rarer, then as you mine the resource your costs will increase faster than the other resources as new veins are harder to find and in places that are harder to mine.

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

The rarity of a resource 100% helps dictates prices, it is an input into the supply part of the supply and demand. If you have equal demand; however, one resource is rarer, then as you mine the resource your costs will increase faster than the other resources as new veins are harder to find and in places that are harder to mine.

For sure. I mean say I paint a picture. It's a 1 of 1. I'd be lucky if any one wanted to pay a nickel for it. Rarity 100% factors into price. But demand is always required for anything to be of value. Rarity on its own cannot.

[starseed]

This is exciting to watch. I have seen a few finance sites saying the wallstreetbets site is pushing SLV, while the WSB site itself is not saying that at all, and instead is saying it is external manipulation and not to buy.


So much drama. Distracts from the dullness of isolation!

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

For sure. I mean say I paint a picture. It's a 1 of 1. I'd be lucky if any one wanted to pay a nickel for it. Rarity 100% factors into price. But demand is always required for anything to be of value. Rarity on its own cannot.

Ah, ya, the price of resources in my mind is very complicated. Since I am in Information Security, I'm an expert on mining lol; so I did some quick googling. It looks like the demand for silver is 991.8m oz and the demand for gold is 154m oz.

Gold demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/go...and-statistics
Silver demand: https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

It looks like both gold and silver outpace demand with supply, though silver seems to outpace by 50m oz vs 10m oz with gold.

The cost to mine gold is $1,000 per oz vs $10.56 for silver.

Gold Average: https://www.mining.com/featured-arti...n-the-world-q1
Silver Average: https://www.americanbullion.com/what...-silver-today/

I found this research very illuminating, also based on this research silver below $20 means the price should go up as mines slow down. Silver at $30 is quite profitable for the mines; when looking at ROI more profitable then gold.

Disclaimer: In the discussion here, I ignored market hedging as that is quite a chaotic variable and just focused on the real-world markets of the two resources.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I was already holding silver anyways and am happy to have it, so I bought more today in case there is a move upwards from this. I was in line for an hour and the line was way out the door the whole time. Everyone was trying to buy silver. They were sold out of bullion so were only taking pre-orders for delivery in 3-6 weeks, though they say they will buy back the pre-order at market rates if you choose to sell early.

If nothing else, it's a refreshing little bit of excitement in what is not generally the most exciting investment space. At the price I got in today, I don't really see much downside anyways. I don't expect to see it explode to the extent suggested on Reddit, but a frenzy that drives up prices for something that's a safe long-term buy at current prices works for me. If it happens, I'll pull it out of the bank to sell off and buy back in again once the prices get back down.

Also, it's kind of more fun experiencing the atmosphere at an actual exchange rather than trading online. Felt like being part of a run on a bank or something.



From my understanding the paper to bullion ratio is more like 125 or 250:1 . In both gold and silver there is far, far more paper gold/silver than there is actual physical metal to back it up.

I assume this was in Shanghai? That anecdote is interesting... a physically constrained market will absolutely be able to squeeze these institutions.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by Krovikan

Ah, ya, the price of resources in my mind is very complicated. Since I am in Information Security, I'm an expert on mining lol; so I did some quick googling. It looks like the demand for silver is 991.8m oz and the demand for gold is 154m oz.

Gold demand: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/go...and-statistics
Silver demand: https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/

It looks like both gold and silver outpace demand with supply, though silver seems to outpace by 50m oz vs 10m oz with gold.

The cost to mine gold is $1,000 per oz vs $10.56 for silver.

Gold Average: https://www.mining.com/featured-arti...n-the-world-q1
Silver Average: https://www.americanbullion.com/what...-silver-today/

I found this research very illuminating, also based on this research silver below $20 means the price should go up as mines slow down. Silver at $30 is quite profitable for the mines; when looking at ROI more profitable then gold.

Disclaimer: In the discussion here, I ignored market hedging as that is quite a chaotic variable and just focused on the real-world markets of the two resources.

There has been much debate over the above as silver is typically mined in conjunction with other metals such as gold, lead and copper. Thus the allocation of costs between the main metals and the byproduct silver can be greatly skewed.

Yamana is a gold miner but just by sheer volume is actually one of the larger producers of silver compared to the silver stocks that are trading.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Got a couple penny stocks and smaller companies off Table5's link there, and will debate SLV over night. Annoyingly, my biggest concern with SLV being redditt's new toy is that my trading app is **** for open buys.

"Hey, we saw you tried to order for market opening, how does 7:50am, 3/4's of the way along the run up work for you?? Cause that's when we got it!!

"Oh, it was $24.99 on friday, $29.90 in pre-market? cool we got you in at $34.00, fam. Look out, it's going down now!!!!!!".

Wow, nice update as two of my orders from last night were still unfilled at 8am with huge percentage jumps already now in the price whenever they felt like getting around to processesing them.

Might be time to move to an actual trading platform.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by starseed

This is exciting to watch. I have seen a few finance sites saying the wallstreetbets site is pushing SLV, while the WSB site itself is not saying that at all, and instead is saying it is external manipulation and not to buy.


So much drama. Distracts from the dullness of isolation!

I had a look at this myself late last night and the consensus on WSB was that the silver push was likely a false flag operation, and a number of posts urged folks not to buy in.

For that reason I put only a small limit order into HZU which didn't get filled this Am as the ETF surged over 20%. Not sure if I'll regret it, as I can totally see silver going up today on buzz and then down again tomorrow when more investors read what WSB is actually saying.

Gold seems pretty flat so far, but with silver up in the short term at least and increasing talk of a broader market bubble, it looks like a good buy to me. Added a bit or Barrick this AM and will likely add some Centamin mid-week too.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by Leondros

I assume this was in Shanghai? That anecdote is interesting... a physically constrained market will absolutely be able to squeeze these institutions.

Pretty sure JohnnyB is talking about Vancouver.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by hmmhmmcamo

My GME predictions that nobody asked for. I don't know anything about anything. Mostly collecting my thoughts but am interested in hearing what others think.

- the short squeeze hasn't happened yet. I think we have several more days to go before this plays out.

- the retail investor army is holding the majority of their shares as shown by the lower trading volume today. Some of the lower volume could also be attributed to the crap trading apps were pulling, but I think any extra volume from those would have been positive given they always had the ability to sell.

- the hedge funds involved in this aren't too big to fail and will be made an example of because everyone is watching now and sees how greedy they got. They will obviously continue to fight back as they have been but ultimately I don't believe the math is on their side if the retail investors continue to hold and wall street doesn't continue to bail them out.

- GME will issue new shares to help pad their bank account which will help support a higher share price in both the short and long term.

I think the squeeze will be accelerated if:

- an announcement is made soon about the new direction of the company going forward - see letter from Ryan Cohen to the board: https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/d...o_GameStop.pdf).
I think announcing RC as CEO would add even more fuel based on his past experience.

- an announcement is made of more stock being acquired by the major shareholders that puts even more pressure on the shorters by dramatically reducing the shares available to them...similar to the Porsche/VW squeeze in 2008. I've read but not verified that RC has an option to purchase up to 20% of the shares.

I also think RC's last tweet on Jan 17 "so you're telling me there's a chance" gif is him trolling/acknowledging the short squeeze potential just before being under a gag order due to year end financial reporting. I haven't been able to verify the gag order part yet.

Why do you think this? The squeeze happens the moment the shares are worth more than they short-sold them at. And the higher the price goes, the greater the squeeze. These are hedge funds, they have teams of professional traders, they are not sitting around worrying that masses of amateurs are going to squeeze them and ruin them. They would be actively playing this entire process. One of the ways they would have protected themselves is by buying call options (or putting on other hedges). They would also be trading the #### out of this volatility.

The lower volume today doesn't mean that retail investors are holding, it means that there are fewer new buyers. These things run out of steam for this exact reason.

As for the company issuing more shares, they may, but it will not have the effect you are hoping for. The company is unable to actually apply any increased capital to grow the business (the business is flat), so increasing the float will only dilute the shares further. They would be playing a very short-sighted game if they do that.

I would imagine we will here reports that executives have been selling some of their own shares. If they also raise capital for the company at the same time, they will be facing an investigation from the regulators.

[AltaGuy]

It really does look as if the silver push was a plant. Every news outlet keeps saying it was WSB - and then you go over there and nothing about silver... Except that Citron, etc is long in it.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

It really does look as if the silver push was a plant. Every news outlet keeps saying it was WSB - and then you go over there and nothing about silver... Except that Citron, etc is long in it.

Are the hedge funds trying to get people to forget about GME now?

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Leondros

I assume this was in Shanghai? That anecdote is interesting... a physically constrained market will absolutely be able to squeeze these institutions.

Yeah, this was in Vancouver. The thing is, being sold out of small units of silver doesn't imply that the overall supply is squeezed yet. Just because they run out of coins and 10oz bars doesn't mean there's a shortage of 1000oz bars around, but the retail market is generally not buying up 1000oz bars and suppliers can't instantly convert the big bars into smaller units to meet small unit demand from retail investors.

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

It really does look as if the silver push was a plant. Every news outlet keeps saying it was WSB - and then you go over there and nothing about silver... Except that Citron, etc is long in it.

It may well be a plant, but for anyone who isn't trading and is willing to hold medium to long term it is still probably a good investment below $30.

At this point, people should be pretty skeptical of WSB anyways. Guys on there who bought into the pumps have a lot of financial interest in keeping the pump going regardless of what it's actually doing to any of the financial institutions. Sticking it to the man is a nice narrative that makes it feel like WSB is still on the side of the little guy, but the reality is that there is probably no shortage of guys on WSB that are making hundreds of thousands or millions of bucks off of the pump and dump and would love to see it keep pumping as they keep pulling profits out even as everyone who joins in based on their advice at this point is more likely to lose than they are to win. That's actually just screwing the little guy too.

Anyone who comes late to the party in a pump and dump is getting dumped more than they're getting pumped.

[Fuzz]

I haven't looked into WSB to much, but it just sounds like a modern version of a few guys calling all the rubes and telling them to buy a stock. "This one's going to Jupiter! Get in on it now!"

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I haven't looked into WSB to much, but it just sounds like a modern version of a few guys calling all the rubes and telling them to buy a stock. "This one's going to Jupiter! Get in on it now!"

Modern day boiler rooms

[Delthefunky]

Originally Posted by FurnaceFace

Here's a highly speculative one. QYOU. They are a Toronto based media company and their main product is a Hindi language youth channel in India. They have reach to 650 million people. I've followed since December and they have recently announced a monetization effort which caused a bit of a spike today. They could end up a penny stock forever or they could break out but thought it was an interesting market to play in.

Qyou has been amazing the last few weeks. Bought a few on your tip at $0.19

[PepsiFree]

WSB is really nothing like that, at all.

Before this nonsense blew up, it was an online community like any other full of memes, huge losses, and people really not taking the stock market seriously. It's still that, more or less, but has been flooded with people looking for stock advice and the next big thing. Those people will leave eventually when they realise that it's a terrible place for it.

It's suddenly built a reputation of some group that has uncovered the code of the stock market, and to others, like a group who pretends to have done that to draw in as many suckers as possible. Both are wrong.

[jayswin]

Has anyone gone back in on Score Media lately? Still waiting for a bigger dip.