2020/2021 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

We lose a Monahan trade involving worst centres unless the main piece coming back has potential to be a better centre than Monahan. Cozens is the only potential prospect that Buffalo has to fit the bill.

I agree 100%...I'm not sold that Treliving feels the same way anymore.

Seems weird since he's technically the better player but I think I'd prefer it with Gaudreau in the deal.

Gaudreau- 2 x $6.75M
Rittich - 1 x $2.75M

$9.5M

for

Reinhart (probably something like 5 x $5.25)
Montour (1 x $3.25M - Sabres retain $600k)
Mittelstadt (probably around $1M x 1)
Pick

$9.5M

Flames become:

Tkachuk - Backlund- Lindholm
Mangiapane - Monahan - Reinhart
Mittelstadt - Bennett - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Tanev
Hanifin - Montour
Kylington

That team doesn't have the elite offensive talent that Gaudreau is...but it's probably a lot more balanced top to bottom.

[djsFlames]

All depends on how Valimaki pans out this season.

If he contributes offensively then it'll soften the loss of Brodie on the offensive side.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

There can be errors in extrapolating for sure.

I'm a commodity trader, and the number of time I've had researchers suggest the trend will continue because ... well it has to this point and been wrong? I've lost count.

But the conclusions are fine if they're framed.

Mangiapane plays on a line with good two way players and doesn't drag them down. That's a plus.

Does he make them even better? That's certainly the direction of the data.

But it's really only 25 games of data, and with that there's a danger.

If Mangiapane is a top six forward with huge possession metrics and five on five production you don't move him. If he had a good 20 games, and someone reads too much into that you do.

But they better get it right.

Kind of like Bennett and his playoff performance. Start of something? Keep him. Small sample size vs large sample size? Move him if someone buys into the playoff hype.

He has had success on ONE line, for a finite period of time (25 games).

Every line gets hot for a while, and Backlund's line was on fire during that time. Can Mangiapane take some of the credit for that? Of course. But assuming they will continue that level of paly is beyond wishful thinking.

And the people that are extrapolating his success from those stats are making the same mistake that cherry-pickers make - there aren't enough different situations to make it valid and trustworthy.

Reinhart (who I am not a huge fan of) has YEARS of consistent data with multiple line-mates - projecting his play can be done with a fair bit of confidence.

Comparing one guy's hot streak against another guy who has beter stats than that EVERY year, makes no sense.

[Roof-Daddy]

Let's just say it's Gaudreau instead of Mangiapane....

Gaudreau
Rittich

for

Reinhart
Ullmark (although, I'd be scared of it being Hutton retained instead)


What does Buffalo need to add to this in order to make it palatable?

(It probably wouldn't be Cozens either IMO, just sayin')

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Do many fans think we got worse short term? How?

I would think the Flames have improved but only slightly.

Goaltending is now the strength, while the forward group is the weakness.

Defense is still missing a right hand dman for the 3rd pair.

Goaltending

In
Markstrom
Domingue

Out
Talbot
Gillies


Defense

In
Tanev
Petrovic
Valimaki (healthy)

Out
Brodie
Hamonic
Forbort
Gustafsson
Stone

Forwards

In
n/a

Out
Quine
Jankowski
Reider
Czarnik

[Nelson]

Mangiapane was great with Ryan last year, and he was great with Backlund and Tkachuk this year.

I want the Flames to sign him long term.

[keenan87]

If no more changes are made, here is how I would like to see the top-six forward lines.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Dube
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane

Give Dube some good players to play with and show his creativity. Hope that he breaks out.

Just sucks that Flames will be anchored by some gross contracts in the bottom six with Backlund, Lucic, and Ryan.

[442scotty]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Let's just say it's Gaudreau instead of Mangiapane....

Gaudreau
Rittich

for

Reinhart
Ullmark (although, I'd be scared of it being Hutton retained instead)


What does Buffalo need to add to this in order to make it palatable?

(It probably wouldn't be Cozens either IMO, just sayin')

I’d like Olafson as an add

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Let's just say it's Gaudreau instead of Mangiapane....

Gaudreau
Rittich

for

Reinhart
Ullmark (although, I'd be scared of it being Hutton retained instead)


What does Buffalo need to add to this in order to make it palatable?

(It probably wouldn't be Cozens either IMO, just sayin')

Regardless of what the add is, Calgary loses the trade because we are giving up by far the best player.

(and no, the add isn't going to be Eichel, so just don't bother)

[GioforPM]

The people who say Mangiapane is about to bust out are also saying Reinhart has no upward progression at 150 days older.

I wonder if there’s any cross-section with the ones who say Bennett is about to make a huge leap at the same age as Reinhart.

[Harry Lime]

Really the only priority for Tre at the moment should be selling a player for cap space, before that market goes absolutely crazy. The cost of cap space now is only going to get more and more expensive as the off-season goes on.

How much would it cost to move Ryan to Ottawa (or another cap open team)?

Ryan is a positive impact player. He has positive value. It might cost a third rounder right now to pay someone to take on that contract. Waiting a month, and that cost could rise to a second rounder. There are some big prices coming.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Regardless of what the add is, Calgary loses the trade because we are giving up by far the best player.

(and no, the add isn't going to be Eichel, so just don't bother)

I'd agree, but what if the Flames FO is quite certain (despite what gets said publicly from either side) that 27 year old Johnny is going to leave as a UFA, but they can get 24 year old Reinhart inked to a long term deal for cheaper than what Gaudreau is making now, and then with that extra cap space get a 24 year old Mangiapane extended long term as well.

Plus whatever else the Sabres add.....


Just spitballin'

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He has had success on ONE line, for a finite period of time (25 games).

Every line gets hot for a while, and Backlund's line was on fire during that time. Can Mangiapane take some of the credit for that? Of course. But assuming they will continue that level of paly is beyond wishful thinking.

And the people that are extrapolating his success from those stats are making the same mistake that cherry-pickers make - there aren't enough different situations to make it valid and trustworthy.

Reinhart (who I am not a huge fan of) has YEARS of consistent data with multiple line-mates - projecting his play can be done with a fair bit of confidence.

Comparing one guy's hot streak against another guy who has beter stats than that EVERY year, makes no sense.

Not exactly.

The 25 games were with Backlund AND Tkachuk.

It's more than half a season with Tkachuk and one of Backlund or Lindholm.

Eight of the nine forwards that had the most ice time with Mangiapane had higher numbers with him (xgF%) than without. The exception is Toby Rieder.

The previous year? Same things. Eight of the top nine most frequent linemates had a positive impact with Mangiapane. Alan Quine was number nine.

This is a pretty consistent performance, for a very short career to date.

[Vinny01]

I think the Flames are definitely better than they were to end last season.

Defense is the same or better with Brodie/Hamonic out and Valimaki/Tanev in. The forward group is not any better and needs an upgrade but the Flames have a pretty decent top 9 as is in my opinion. Goaltending went from bottom half to top 5 which should be worth several points in the standings.

Flames as currently constructed would battle for 2nd in the Pacific and would have a good shot at winning the potential Canadian division.

[the-rasta-masta]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I agree 100%...I'm not sold that Treliving feels the same way anymore.

Seems weird since he's technically the better player but I think I'd prefer it with Gaudreau in the deal.

Gaudreau- 2 x $6.75M
Rittich - 1 x $2.75M

$9.5M

for

Reinhart (probably something like 5 x $5.25)
Montour (1 x $3.25M - Sabres retain $600k)
Mittelstadt (probably around $1M x 1)
Pick

$9.5M

Flames become:

Tkachuk - Backlund- Lindholm
Mangiapane - Monahan - Reinhart
Mittelstadt - Bennett - Dube
Lucic - Ryan - Gawdin

Giordano - Andersson
Valimaki - Tanev
Hanifin - Montour
Kylington

That team doesn't have the elite offensive talent that Gaudreau is...but it's probably a lot more balanced top to bottom.

Sorry J, that is a 9th place hockey team. Looking at these options it make zero sense to trade Gaudreau IMO. We need to give him another year here. Next offseason we will have the opportunity to talk extension, and see if his comments in the media about wanting to stay in Calgary are valid. If not, then flip him at that time after what I imagine will be a redemption year stats wise for Johnny.

[GioforPM]

Tkachuk-Monahan-Lindholm
Mangiapane-Backlund-Reinhart
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Rinaldo-Ryan-Gawdin

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

Sorry J, that is a 9th place hockey team. Looking at these options it make zero sense to trade Gaudreau IMO. We need to give him another year here. Next offseason we will have the opportunity to talk extension, and see if his comments in the media about wanting to stay in Calgary are valid. If not, then flip him at that time after what I imagine will be a redemption year stats wise for Johnny.

I should be clear that I don't like the idea of trading Monahan/Gaudreau this offseason either, just the wrong market for it.

More just an indication of what the return probably looks like from Buffalo if the GM decides to go down that route based on the rumours out there.

And that should be a playoff team. Defense is fairly strong, would have strong goaltending, and should be pretty stingy defensively. Issue is there is no real offensive gamebreaker on that team, but really Gaudreau wasn't that guy last season either. I was actually surprised with how close Reinhart and Gaudreau were in production over the last two years at 5v5.

Reinhart: 33 goals (0.86 per 60), 45 assists (30 primary / 15 secondary), 78 points (2.04 per 60)
Gaudreau: 34 goals (0.89 per 60), 56 assists (37 primary / 19 secondary), 90 points (2.36 per 60)

So 1 goal and 11 assists at 5v5 is the difference of the two at 5v5 the past two seasons. Of course with the big concern being that Reinhart was playing with Eichel.

[GioforPM]

Gaudreau-Rittich for Reinhart, a goalie and Jokiharju

Tkachuk-Monahan-Lindholm
Mangiapane-Backlund-Reinhart
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Rinaldo-Ryan-Gawdin

Gio-Andersson
Hanifin-Tanev
Valimaki-Jokiharju

Markstrom
Hutton (50%) or Ullmark at a decent contract

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Tkachuk-Monahan-Lindholm
Mangiapane-Backlund-Reinhart
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Rinaldo-Ryan-Gawdin

Gio-Andersson
Hanifin-Tanev
Valimaki-Jokiharju

I'd love to squeeze Jokiharju out of the Sabres. A budding top 4 Dman, he and Valimaki would push their way up the roster very quickly IMO.

With that line up I would like to see some value forward signings to push for spots on Ryan's wings on the 4th line. Rinaldo should be a 13th forward, and Gawdin should only make it if he can legitimately beat a vet out.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I'd love to squeeze Jokiharju out of the Sabres. A budding top 4 Dman, he and Valimaki would push their way up the roster very quickly IMO.

Yeah, I imagine that’s their plan for him with Dahlin, but it sure evens out the Gaudreau-Reinhart trade. I edited to add goalies if that’s still a consideration.