2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

You'd move the 2021 1st over the known 19th pick?

There's a very good chance that 2021 1st is a very high pick.

Beyond that, we can pick up a good goaltender is free agency without giving up anything.

If we're getting Kuemper we're unlikely blowing things up, and the 21 draft is reportedly weaker. Either way not sure why we'd bank on the pick being higher than this years. I might be more tempted to trade next year's pick too.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by mile

He just tweets rumours and news he hears on the radio.

Him thinking it’s Calgary is just his guess.

I just think it’s inferable the Coyotes have an offer in the late teens or later as that guy tweeted. Also, there has been a lot of smoke from Elliotte Friedman and others connecting the Flames to Kuemper and/or OEL. It’s definitely not a guarantee the Flames are the one with the offer though.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

You'd move the 2021 1st over the known 19th pick?

There's a very good chance that 2021 1st is a very high pick.

Beyond that, we can pick up a good goaltender is free agency without giving up anything.

yeah, the 2020 draft is projecting to be one of the strongest drafts in recent years and a number of players available at the 19 spot look to be projecting to what a pick from 10-15 normally would look like.

If we're trading for Kuemper and making other additions - how are you projecting this team to be worse next year? Do you think we're actually selling off key pieces for futures?

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

yeah, the 2020 draft is projecting to be one of the strongest drafts in recent years and a number of players available at the 19 spot look to be projecting to what a pick from 10-15 normally would look like.

If we're trading for Kuemper and making other additions - how are you projecting this team to be worse next year?

Because it's the Flames and it seems like a certainty now that a major core piece will be moved out? What are the odds the Flames end up on the positive side of such a move?

Based on how the team had been playing prior to the covid shutdown, we may have missed the playoffs this year if they played a full 82 game season.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by Poe969

instead of going for Kumpner, I'd do whatever to trade up and grab Askarov....if at all possible.

This is a little underrated as a strategy. Why go after Kuemper for picks, when you could do a hockey trade with the Rangers for Georgiev?

Calgary needs to start graduating some homegrown talent. Plan to have Parsons in the show in two years. Draft two goalies this year, Askarov is a potential star and there are about three potential starters. Plan to have Wolf in the show in four years. In one year of Rittich and Georgiev.... choose one.

I'm tired of the Flames being so rudderless in net. If you bring in Kuemper, it solves the problem for exactly two years. Maybe.

[Nelson]

I really want the Flames to just bring back Talbot.

[Monahammer]

Unless one of Keller, Schmaltz, or Dvorak is coming too then it's going to be painful for us.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Because it's the Flames and it seems like a certainty now that a major core piece will be moved out? What are the odds the Flames end up on the positive side of such a move?

Tree hasn't really lost a trade, so I'd say pretty good? He's not going to make some silly panicked move. He's been trying to do a few things for years now:

- add a new bonafide top-six forward
- solve the goalie situation

Both seem achievable this off-season in fairly significant ways (Hall and Kuemper are high quality, core pieces).

Also, not starting the season playing for a coach you don't want to play for may have a positive impact.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

yeah, the 2020 draft is projecting to be one of the strongest drafts in recent years and a number of players available at the 19 spot look to be projecting to what a pick from 10-15 normally would look like.

If we're trading for Kuemper and making other additions - how are you projecting this team to be worse next year? Do you think we're actually selling off key pieces for futures?

I think he is recouping 1sts in a Gaudreau trade so I don’t doubt they consider moving 19th overall. I suspect the Flames are drafting in the first round this year just not sure it is with their pick.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Tree hasn't really lost a trade

???

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Our idea of what scorched earth is, clearly differs. If you eliminate the old core of Giordano, Brodie, Backlund, Monahan and Gaudreau, you are left with a strong young group of players yet to hit their peak ability. You could get rid of all of these guys, and I can see an argument for going that way, but I think that the Flames are in the position where some of their young guys have surpassed the abilities of the old core. Tkachuk, Lindholm and Andersson. We have also seen strides in the group coming up behind them.

Giordano is likely to play out his contract here. Backlund has control over his own destiny until next year. Brodie has likely priced himself out of Calgary and wants to play in the East. Most people here have come to terms trading JG, and are split on Monahan.

That's possibly 3 out of 5 core pieces gone. So, charred earth?

Stealth answer for ER ------ tenure.

I've detailed in several posts what scorched earth means to me.

It is essentially committing to being a bottom 5-10 team for a 3-4 year period, trading any player playing significant minutes that's over the age of 25, and getting back purely bad contracts with good picks and prospects attached to them.

To do that though it was critical to sign Tkachuk to term instead of a bridge deal, because now you can't really go scorched earth and expect to keep tkachuk at the end of his deal

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

it depends what the goal is.

If you want to win in the next 2 years, you need to do everything you can to maximize your cap space which means not taking on another bad contract, whether it's 1 year left or 4. You package picks or prospects like Dube with the bad money you want to send out, and then you send out more picks and maybe a top prospect like Valimaki to get that player that pushes you over the top like a legit top tier centre.

If you're looking to tread water, there are all sorts of bad contracts out there you could trade for, but that doesn't really improve the situation at all for the Flames in a winning capacity. Even if Neal was a 20 goal guy, the Flames are still seriously lacking in their centre group. 77 and 47 points from your top 2 centres isn't going to cut it, especially when one of them doesn't provide a ton other than scoring.

Decide if you want to win now or win later and make the appropriate moves.

In my mind the situation for the Flames now is to try to win with Tkachuk and the young defensive group, which means selling in the short term. Think trading Backlund, Gio, Gaudreau, Monahan, Brodie, Hamonic for primarily picks and high level prospects (vs the hanowski's of the world).

There's a way to win and there's a way to not and I think right now following this loss you have to consider where the Flames are at in terms of that winning formula.

The rebuild is over and this is more or less the team now in terms of their high end, core group. Is this roster good enough or should you try again for a window 3 years from now with a 24 year old Tkachuk and a defensive group just entering their prime years?

You can do one or the other, but there is a straight forward and established roadmap to building a contending roster.

My guess is the Flames will go in the win now direction and I honestly don't think that has much chance at success. Maybe with a player like Stone or O'Reilly you'd have a chance, but those guys don't become available often. If you have to move a bunch of assets to drop your dead money to fit one of those guys in, do you then still have the assets to actually grab them? I don't think so with where the organization is right now. They need those assets like Valimaki and Andersson to actually compete.

Calgary's continual sustained problem has been robbing Peter to pay Paul. This will always be the problem until they address that asset gap with some short term pain for long term gain.

I don't think the Flames ownership has it in them to do that though, especially not with the Arena hanging in the balance.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

If we're getting Kuemper we're unlikely blowing things up, and the 21 draft is reportedly weaker. Either way not sure why we'd bank on the pick being higher than this years. I might be more tempted to trade next year's pick too.

You aren't banking on anything, but making trade involving the 2021 1st simply invites the real possibility that you're trading a lottery pick.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

This is a little underrated as a strategy. Why go after Kuemper for picks, when you could do a hockey trade with the Rangers for Georgiev?

Calgary needs to start graduating some homegrown talent. Plan to have Parsons in the show in two years. Draft two goalies this year, Askarov is a potential star and there are about three potential starters. Plan to have Wolf in the show in four years. In one year of Rittich and Georgiev.... choose one.

I'm tired of the Flames being so rudderless in net. If you bring in Kuemper, it solves the problem for exactly two years. Maybe.

Georgiev is nowhere near the level of Kuemper. Not even close.

Georgiev:
19/20: -0.004% save % above expected, .910 save %
18/19: -0.076% save % above exected, .914 save %

Kuemper:
19/20: 0.46% save % above expected, .928 save %
18/19: 0.257% save % above expected, .925 save %

Kuemper's numbers are truly elite.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think he is recouping 1sts in a Gaudreau trade so I don’t doubt they consider moving 19th overall. I suspect the Flames are drafting in the first round this year just not sure it is with their pick.

Yeah if we're talking Gaudreau out and NJD's 7th coming in (+ more), and the 19th going out with Kuemper and Hall coming in? That's a huge win.

[Nelson]

Kuemper - 91.8% career save percentage
Talbot - 91.6% career save percentage

Talbot has played two very solid seasons as a definite #1, and he was great in the playoffs except for the last game.

Just keep Talbot!

[bax]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

He can, but the chances of this are quite low.
I'm pretty sure that Rittich regressed in both save percentage and GSAA this past year. Many of the league's elite goaltenders are now younger than Rittich.

We should hope for the best, but we should avoid placing all of our eggs in this basket. Look how it turned out with Leeland Irving.

Exactly, that my was my original point. I would welcome back Rittich in a tandem with another goalie, hopefully Kuemper. With a compressed schedule having 2 capable goalies will be important. I hope Rittich can continue to develop, there are a few key things he can dial in on to get better.

I'm not counting on him to become a superstar, but I'm not giving up on his development either.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Me thinks Treliving has offered up 19th OA for Kuemper.

Does Treliving hate the first round or something? This management group has burnt so many assets on goaltending I’m honestly frightened at the idea of another Brian Elliott situation. What if the Flames miss out on another Alex Debrincat who they could desperately use now.

I guess if all these trades do end up going through, the Calgary Flames can take another step closer to becoming the Calgary Coyotes.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Nelson

Me thinks Treliving has offered up 19th OA for Kuemper.

Me thinks Treliving should be fired before he does anymore damage.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Is it that we haven't had a top tier goalie for so long that we don't think one is worth a 1st round pick?

Kuemper is a top 10 goalie. He does have some injury history, but he is still the best shot we have at moving this team forward. I'd sooner move the 2021 1st than the 2020 1st, that's for sure - but if we're getting Kuemer and Hall's rights? I'm all over that.

Very few players on the wrong side of 30 are worth a 19th overall pick.
Especially a goalie who has only once played more than 40 games.

I like Kuemper, but not at that price.

Mediocrity is one thing. But when you also trade away draft picks, there's nothing for fans to get excited over.
These are the types of moves that make fan bases go cold.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah if we're talking Gaudreau out and NJD's 7th coming in (+ more), and the 19th going out with Kuemper and Hall coming in? That's a huge win.

I am only speculating but I wouldn’t be shocked if there is something that is holding this deal up may be Treliving trying to negotiate a deal with Hall.

I would t be surprised if he has the 1st on the table for Kuemper if he also has the ability to negotiate with Hall and he is doing that now and if a sea is finalized Rittich+1st to Arizona for Kuemper and Hall who has agreed to an extension in order to make the trade official (similar to Stone to Vegas and Turris to Nashville)

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by JTech780

I could be wrong on this, but my understanding is that one of the driving factors for Arizona wanting to trade OEL is that they need to cut payroll by at least $10m.

So trading OEL+Grabner, $11.5m, for Neal+Nurse, $11.3m, doesn't do anything to help their payroll.

They will have to take back some cap in a OEL, but I think they will try find a trade where they shed as much cap as possible.

The rumor was an internal payroll of 70m was it not? Cap hits are not the same as annual salaries due to front/back loaded contracts. Arizona's salary expenditures are currently almost $20 million under their cap number and that includes Hossa who is likely being paid by insurance.