American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[Red Slinger]

If there was any doubt that White Supremacists are one of the biggest threats to American (and therefore Western) democracy, they should all but be squashed after the last 4 years.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

If there was any doubt that White Supremacists are one of the biggest threats to American (and therefore Western) democracy, they should all but be squashed after the last 4 years.

I dunno, I think there a still a decent number of them out there, I don't think they've been squashed yet.

... In seriousness, how many white supremacists do you think there are in the United States today? Ballpark figure.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I dunno, I think there a still a decent number of them out there, I don't think they've been squashed yet.

... In seriousness, how many white supremacists do you think there are in the United States today? Ballpark figure.

62,984,828 during the last opportunity to self identify.

Seriously, the number is fairly low, probably 3-5% of the population are overtly racist or ascribe to racist ideology. We know there are 450ish hate groups linked directly to white supremacy in the US (SPLC). We also know that distribution of literature and incidents of activities associated with white supremacy are up 182% (ADL). The problem of identifying the specific number of people that directly support this ideology is not really at the core of the problem. The issue is identifying the people who they admit to supporting viewpoints widely held by white supremacist groups. That number sits at about 31% (Ipsos Polling). That is a big number and a big problem. That is the core Trump base, so that 62,984,828 may not be that far off.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

On an unrelated note - and I might just be nagging Iowa Flames Fan here - how long do we have to wait for useful polls that would include information about the effect of the Woodward revelations?

It occurred to me yesterday that the place I'm most interested in seeing the effects is Florida. A place where coronavirus fears are, presumably, a bit elevated, and a place with a lot of seniors, who have more cause than most to be upset about Trump knowing how bad the situation was going to be and not doing anything about it.

I'm sure it will help a bit everywhere, but I'm sort of on the edge of my seat wondering if there's maybe a bigger effect in the states with more coronavirus and older populations.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

On an unrelated note - and I might just be nagging Iowa Flames Fan here - how long do we have to wait for useful polls that would include information about the effect of the Woodward revelations?

It occurred to me yesterday that the place I'm most interested in seeing the effects is Florida. A place where coronavirus fears are, presumably, a bit elevated, and a place with a lot of seniors, who have more cause than most to be upset about Trump knowing how bad the situation was going to be and not doing anything about it.

I'm sure it will help a bit everywhere, but I'm sort of on the edge of my seat wondering if there's maybe a bigger effect in the states with more coronavirus and older populations.

Looks like most of the polls are rolling 5-6 days. So you'd likely see some influence by tomorrow, but not the full picture.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ident-general/

[activeStick]

In key battleground states, Trump trails Biden in most categories among voters except for the economy and Democrats are concerned that voters in these regions are still leaning to Trump as the better candidate to fix the economy.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...biden-n1239807

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Which is hilarious because his horrible mismanagement of the pandemic is the main reason for the current troubled economy. It was always going to be a disruption and a small recession, but he may have done permanent damage to the economy that will take years to recover from.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Polling can be confusing for most people. They look at the national poll and think that is how the election is going to go. The only thing that matters is the electoral college and how the individual state polling is looking. With that in mind I'll add some data to Kootney's stuff that focuses on the electoral college polling and the possible outcome.

We will acknowledge that Trump is a clear winner in Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Utah (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6) Oklahoma (7), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11) and West Virginia (5).

Trump has Texas (38) and South Carolina (9) leaning his way.

Trump = 170 electoral college votes.

We will also acknowledge that Biden is a clear winner in California (55), Oregon (5), Washington (12), Illinois (20), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10) and DC (3).

Biden has Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), and Maine (4) leaning his way.

Biden = 220 electoral college votes.

This leaves the follow as battleground states. Data from Real Clear Politics averages (trend indicates riser).

Arizona (11) - Biden +5.7 (trend Biden)
Wisconsin (10) - Biden +6.5 (trend Biden)
Michigan (16) - Biden +4.2 (trend Biden)
Ohio (18) - Biden +2.4 (trend Biden)
Pennsylvania (20) - Biden +4.3 (trend Biden)
Virginia (13) - Biden +12.5 (trend Biden)
North Carolina (15) - Biden +0.8 (toss up)
Georgia (16) - Trump +1.3 (trend Trump)
Florida (29) - Biden +1.2 (trend Trump)

Electoral College Projection

Trump (encumbent) - 186 vs Biden - 334

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I dunno, I think there a still a decent number of them out there, I don't think they've been squashed yet.

... In seriousness, how many white supremacists do you think there are in the United States today? Ballpark figure.

Sorry, I meant to say that the doubts around how serious the problem is should be squashed, not white supremacy itself.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...eat-dhs-409236

White supremacists present the gravest terror threat to the United States, according to a draft report from the Department of Homeland Security.

Law enforcement in the US recognizes the issue but can't do too much about it since any ally of White Supremacists currently occupies the White House.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Which is hilarious because his horrible mismanagement of the pandemic is the main reason for the current troubled economy. It was always going to be a disruption and a small recession, but he may have done permanent damage to the economy that will take years to recover from.

Agreed and I think Biden simply needs to better connect the impacts of the poor management of the virus to the current economic situation. Maybe not even better connect, just do it more often to the point of it being annoying to hear. It shouldn't be hard for people to see this connection so maybe it's just a matter of repeat, repeat, repeat.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by New Era

Polling can be confusing for most people. They look at the national poll and think that is how the election is going to go. The only thing that matters is the electoral college and how the individual state polling is looking. With that in mind I'll add some data to Kootney's stuff that focuses on the electoral college polling and the possible outcome.

We will acknowledge that Trump is a clear winner in Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), Utah (6), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Nebraska (5), Kansas (6) Oklahoma (7), Iowa (6), Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11) and West Virginia (5).

Trump has Texas (38) and South Carolina (9) leaning his way.

Trump = 170 electoral college votes.

We will also acknowledge that Biden is a clear winner in California (55), Oregon (5), Washington (12), Illinois (20), New York (29), Massachusetts (11), Rhode Island (4), Connecticut (7), New Jersey (14), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Maryland (10) and DC (3).

Biden has Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Minnesota (10), and Maine (4) leaning his way.

Biden = 220 electoral college votes.

This leaves the follow as battleground states. Data from Real Clear Politics averages (trend indicates riser).

Arizona (11) - Biden +5.7 (trend Biden)
Wisconsin (10) - Biden +6.5 (trend Biden)
Michigan (16) - Biden +4.2 (trend Biden)
Ohio (18) - Biden +2.4 (trend Biden)
Pennsylvania (20) - Biden +4.3 (trend Biden)
Virginia (13) - Biden +12.5 (trend Biden)
North Carolina (15) - Biden +0.8 (toss up)
Georgia (16) - Trump +1.3 (trend Trump)
Florida (29) - Biden +1.2 (trend Trump)

Electoral College Projection

Trump (encumbent) - 186 vs Biden - 334

Thanks for doing the work on this. I'm very nervous about North Carolina, Ohio and Florida going for Biden, and a little nervous about Pennsylvania.

On the other hand, some say Texas is seriously in play.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

If there was any doubt that White Supremacists are one of the biggest threats to American (and therefore Western) democracy, they should all but be squashed after the last 4 years.

It's definitely a threat to democratic egalitarian values in a diverse society, but democracy has a very short history of actually being paired with equal access to the process. On the flip side, much of the history of the West is actually a history of white supremacy. Those white supremacist roots run much deeper than the egalitarian democratic values do and looking at these two things on a longer scale of Western history, white supremacy is a much more prominent feature of Western civilization.

As desirable as it may be to think we've put all that behind us in 2020, it doesn't seem likely in the grander arc of Western civilization that we have. In some ways, what I think we're actually seeing in the US is the possible expression of the reality that egalitarian democratic values are actually less valued than is white supremacy by a large part of the population and by many very powerful members of the population.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by troutman

Thanks for doing the work on this. I'm very nervous about North Carolina, Ohio and Florida going for Biden, and a little nervous about Pennsylvania.

On the other hand, some say Texas is seriously in play.

Here's the thing on that. Trump won those states in 2016. They are already part of the math he needs to repeat. The fact that Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are in Biden's column right now means he loses the entire firewall he had. Even moving all three of NC, OH, & FL into Trump's column, he still loses 290 to 248. The math does not appear to be there at the moment, and that is even giving Trump all the advantage and not recognizing the same spread in Ohio is not that much different than the lead Trump has in Texas (+3.5) or South Carolina (+3.5). Those two states are more of a battleground than Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, or
Virginia right now. The only reason I didn't include them was because they have traditionally gone red and stayed red.

[troutman]

Doing some reading - Mondale has 13 electoral college votes in 1984. All he had was Minnesota and DC. He did have 40.6% of the popular vote.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Walt was quite the guy!

[The Fonz]

We gonna see a desperate move soon? Is Trump going to fire missiles onto an empty tarmac and claim he just wiped out ISIS?

He has to be getting concerned about the polls.

[CaptainCrunch]

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

That’s good news

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by activeStick

In key battleground states, Trump trails Biden in most categories among voters except for the economy and Democrats are concerned that voters in these regions are still leaning to Trump as the better candidate to fix the economy.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...biden-n1239807

Biden is also struggling with Latino voters, which is why the Florida numbers are so close and why Nevada is probably closer than it should. This was a pretty big red flag for Biden during the primaries, too, so I'm not sure why the Democrats aren't doing more to reach out to Latino voters.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...could-cost-him

[Azure]

Originally Posted by edslunch

That’s good news

This also doesn't happen with Saudi approval, so one does hope that it will keep going.

Trump has a very decent foreign policy in many aspects. But, not hard to beat the last 20 years (coincidentally today is the 19th anniversary of 9/11).