[GDT] 2020 WC Play-In Round: Calgary Flames (8) vs. Winnipeg Jets (9) Flames 2-1

[schteve_d]

I'm not an advanced stat guy by any means. In fact I've never even really taken the time to understand most of them. I should one day as they are kind of interesting to me.

Anyway, because of that, I look at the old school stats. Those top five in Winnipeg still worry me a little. Connor and Sheifele at over a PPG last season, Wheeler and Laine close and Ehlers not too far off. Their size has to also be a factor: 6'1", 6'3", 6'5", 6'5". Our closest was Tkachuk (61 in 69) and Johnny at not too far off, similar to Ehlers (58 in 70 vs. 58 in 71). That's a tough shutdown job for Backlund and with the clear edge in goaltending to Winnipeg I can't help but be nervous about this series.

We will need to elevate to win but I'm hopeful.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Backlund lost the series last year to Mackinnon and this year he has Scheifele. I guess he figures the quiet respectful approach didn't work so let's see how Scheifele reacts

Backlund and Tkachuk were actually really unlucky last year when it came to their head to head match up with the Mackinnon line actually.

Flames were dominated when those two weren't on the ice, but with those two on the ice the match up was a lot closer than it seemed. Just a bit unlucky at even strength.

Backlund + Tkachuk vs Mackinnon:

TOI: 46:46
CF%: 52.4%
HDCF%: 66.7% (14 For, 7 Against)
xGF%: 57.9%

GF: 1
GA: 4
Sh %: 3.45%
Sv %: .833

Without Backlund & Tkachuk vs Mackinnon:

TOI: 36:58
CF%: 31.2%
HDCF%: 9.52% (2 For, 19 (!) Against)
xGF%: 18.2%

GF: 2
GA: 0
Sh %: 16.7%
Sv %: 1.000

So Backlund and Tkachuk controlled play and had the advantage in High Danger chances and expected goals. But had a horrible on ice shooting percentage, and didn't get many saves either. Without those two on the ice Mackinnon absolutely ran over the Flames, but Smith stood on his head and the Flames were able to score two goals. In the end it kind of balanced out at 5 on 5 but Mackinnon's domination really wasn't Backlund's fault.

Similar story on the PK. Only 1 of the 5 PP goals the Avs scored with Mackinnon on the ice were scored with Backlund on the ice, while 4 of the PP goals they scored were with the Janko PK on the ice.

The Backlund-Tkachuk pairing is the least of the Flames worries IMO.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Backlund steps up (and Mangiapane)

'We're the better team'
Flames' Backlund not afraid to voice his opinion'



I don't think that a series ever shifts with bulletin board trash talk but Backlund is writing a cheque, that he needs to cash.

You are not going say anything that will motivate guys at this level to play any harder.

Backlund lost the series last year to Mackinnon and this year he has Scheifele. I guess he figures the quiet respectful approach didn't work so let's see how Scheifele reacts

Who is going to step up and guarantee a Flames win?

Adorable. See you Saturday Backs.

[AC]

"If we play our best, I think we’re the better team"

Oh man, so controversial!

Also:
8. Calgary
9. Winnipeg

FACTS.

[calgaryred]

So if the Flames beat the Jets, Vancouver loses to the Wild and Edmonton beats the Hawks does that mean Flames play the Oilers?

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[FiveSeven]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Adorable. See you Saturday Backs.

I mean he's not wrong. Any conversation that involves the jets winning the series should start with, "The Flames are the better team, but..."

Flames are gonna roll over the jets so easily everyone is gonna be sitting back wondering wtf just happened.

[bubbsy]

My unfortunate prediction is jets in 4.

Jets have equal or better forwards, especially when you consider their top end forwards are way better suited (and proven) to succeed at playoff hockey. As a flame fan, I have overvalued the flames 'depth' at forward. The contribution/points in the 3/4 lines are clear indicators. If the top 2 lines aren't scoring, the whole team isn't scoring.

The difference in the D is far overstated. With Giordano coming back to earth this year, that top pairing, though still a really good top pair, aren't as elite as the past few years. Andersson is definitely good enough to be carry a 2nd pair, but Hanafin is a marginal 4th dman on a truly good, contending team. 3rd pairings are a wash for me. I also think that the jets have a more responsible fwd group and better coaching, which makes the names on the d less important for the jets.

Goalies, obvious win for the jets. The only question I have is if the flames get avg goaltending or if it's costing them games (giving up a bad goal a game).

I really like monahan and gaudreau, but they are Phil kessel level stars. They need to be 2nd tier players on a great team. Instead they are the top tier drivers of a average / above average team.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by AC

"If we play our best, I think we’re the better team"

Oh man, so controversial!

Also:
8. Calgary
9. Winnipeg

FACTS.

lol. ok Ben Shapiro.

Originally Posted by FiveSeven

I mean he's not wrong. Any conversation that involves the jets winning the series should start with, "The Flames are the better team, but..."

Flames are gonna roll over the jets so easily everyone is gonna be sitting back wondering wtf just happened.

I don't see how a series between teams with essentially identical win %'s should be a shock no matter the result. But sure, fill yer boots

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

lol. ok Ben Shapiro

Why do you do this to other posters? Most of these attempted back-handed comparisons to American political figures don't make a lick of sense when you attempt to attach them to people here.

It's obnoxious. I can't wait until the Flames crush the turd-Jets in this series and for you to disappear.

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[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

My unfortunate prediction is jets in 4.

Jets have equal or better forwards, especially when you consider their top end forwards are way better suited (and proven) to succeed at playoff hockey. As a flame fan, I have overvalued the flames 'depth' at forward. The contribution/points in the 3/4 lines are clear indicators. If the top 2 lines aren't scoring, the whole team isn't scoring.

The difference in the D is far overstated. With Giordano coming back to earth this year, that top pairing, though still a really good top pair, aren't as elite as the past few years. Andersson is definitely good enough to be carry a 2nd pair, but Hanafin is a marginal 4th dman on a truly good, contending team. 3rd pairings are a wash for me. I also think that the jets have a more responsible fwd group and better coaching, which makes the names on the d less important for the jets.

Goalies, obvious win for the jets. The only question I have is if the flames get avg goaltending or if it's costing them games (giving up a bad goal a game).

I really like monahan and gaudreau, but they are Phil kessel level stars. They need to be 2nd tier players on a great team. Instead they are the top tier drivers of a average / above average team.

Gaudreau isn't a Kessel tier player.

People are really reading too much into a bad individual season for him. Its a pet peeve of mine when we take the most recent play and extrapolate it as the player's ceiling.

People were writing off Backlund in the fall and called him over the hill / declining, then he came out and led the team offensively for the first two months of new year playing maybe the best hockey he ever has.

Gaudreau on his game arguably tops any one on the jets skill wise and if any team acquired him today he would be skating on their top line. For good reason.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Why do you do this to other posters? Most of these attempted back-handed comparisons to American political figures don't make a lick of sense when you attempt to attach them to people here.

It's obnoxious. I can't wait until the Flames crush the turd-Jets in this series and for you to disappear.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

Cool, free to ignore me instead of having a #### fit.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

So if the Flames beat the Jets, Vancouver loses to the Wild and Edmonton beats the Hawks does that mean Flames play the Oilers?

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Unlikely. I just dont see the Oilers getting past the Hawks.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Gaudreau isn't a Kessel tier player.

People are really reading too much into a bad individual season for him. Its a pet peeve of mine when we take the most recent play and extrapolate it as the player's ceiling.

People were writing off Backlund in the fall and called him over the hill / declining, then he came out and led the team offensively for the first two months of new year playing maybe the best hockey he ever has.

Gaudreau on his game arguably tops any one on the jets skill wise and if any team acquired him today he would be skating on their top line. For good reason.

My opinion has NOTHING to do with gaudreau's average year. It's that his game does not translate in the playoffs. If he's Ur primary offensive driver, playoff success may not be in the cards.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by calgaryred

So if the Flames beat the Jets, Vancouver loses to the Wild and Edmonton beats the Hawks does that mean Flames play the Oilers?

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No matter what, the winners of the 4 play in series play one of Vegas Colorado St Louis Dallas

[nieuwy-89]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

I'm not an advanced stat guy by any means. In fact I've never even really taken the time to understand most of them. I should one day as they are kind of interesting to me.

Anyway, because of that, I look at the old school stats. Those top five in Winnipeg still worry me a little. Connor and Sheifele at over a PPG last season, Wheeler and Laine close and Ehlers not too far off. Their size has to also be a factor: 6'1", 6'3", 6'5", 6'5". Our closest was Tkachuk (61 in 69) and Johnny at not too far off, similar to Ehlers (58 in 70 vs. 58 in 71). That's a tough shutdown job for Backlund and with the clear edge in goaltending to Winnipeg I can't help but be nervous about this series.

We will need to elevate to win but I'm hopeful.

I agree with this. I look at Winnipeg's top line and I can see them taking over the series the same way the Avs top line did last year. I think we have better depth overall, but I don't think the Flames have the high end talent to respond if Scheifele/Connor go into god mode like McKinnon did last year. Between that and Hellebuyck, I'm very worried about this series.

[MrMike]

Ain’t no Mackinnon but Mackinnon. Their best players aren't better than our best players.

[1qqaaz]

Well they don't have anyone like Giordano.

If he performs well, it could be part of the difference.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Well they don't have anyone like Giordano.

If he performs well, it could be part of the difference.

Giordano hasn't been that guy this entire season though. He's a dependable dman, but not the difference maker as he's been in past years.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Gio has been playing the ‘solid D leads to offensive chances, wait for your chances’ hockey that puts him more in the 40-50 point ballpark than the Hartley / Peters first 2/3 of last year ‘D has the green light, just make sure you get back’ game that puts him at a 70 point level

My big fear is that this team will not use their skill to take it to the opponents

[CalgaryFan1988]

I like how White Out gets cockier as the thread progresses. Should be a fun series.