The Democratic Presidential Nomination 2020

[troutman]

Chris Matthews was right - they spent so much time talking about health care, when unless they put at least 57 Democrats in the Senate, none of their plans are going anywhere. They spent very little time on foreign policy, an area where the President does have a big influence.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Maybe if Bloomberg put $400 million towards the Dems keeping the House and winning the Senate he'd be doing something decent with that money. As it is he's essentially lighting in on fire and probably helping the Republicans as much as anything.

[FlameOn]

Again, Bloomberg's campaign is all about ego stroking and tax avoidance. He could care less if he is sabotaging Democrats or he burns down the entire DNC.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

As it is he's essentially lighting in on fire and probably helping the Republicans as much as anything.

Which is essentially his plan, no?

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'm guessing his ideal plan would have been Biden, but he wants nothing to do with Bernie. Third party run will definitely be in play for him too.

[FlameOn]

That would be ultimate dick move by Bloomberg. Can't get the nomination, run as third party, split the vote and ensure US is paralyzed for another four years under Trump.

[Rando]

He's running to torpedo Warren/Sanders. Anyone, even Trump, is his preferred President to those two.

[ResAlien]

God I cannot wait until the super delegates decide to hand the nomination to someone other than Sanders, the voter base rejects the rigged process entirely, and Trump wins again. That’s gonna be so frikkin awesome.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean Trump's approval is ticking up right now as he gets to hide in the background of the DNC race. Even if Bernie gets the nomination he has virtually no shot of winning without economic collapse. Dems really should be pushing harder for the senate to block all of Trump's judges at least. That is far more valuable than anything.

[GirlySports]

I think Trump wins either way. It's so hard to beat a sitting President. If the President wasn't named Trump it would be a throwaway election and reload for 2024.

Getting a Reagan or Bill Clinton is like drawing to an inside straight.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean Trump's approval is ticking up right now as he gets to hide in the background of the DNC race. Even if Bernie gets the nomination he has virtually no shot of winning without economic collapse. Dems really should be pushing harder for the senate to block all of Trump's judges at least. That is far more valuable than anything.

You keep saying that even though the data available indicates the opposite.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

God I cannot wait until the super delegates decide to hand the nomination to someone other than Sanders, the voter base rejects the rigged process entirely, and Trump wins again. That’s gonna be so frikkin awesome.

Followed by a bunch of surprised Pikachu faces in the punditry and Democratic establishment.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Followed by a bunch of surprised Pikachu faces in the punditry and Democrat establishment.

"The Russians screwed us again!"

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by rubecube

You keep saying that even though the data available indicates the opposite.

The historical data shows beating an incumbent is hard, and when the economy is rolling it's impossible. People can enjoy the thought of Bernie right up until they actually have to vote. And it can't be stressed enough, but when you choose a candidate that causes you to forfeit the state with the third most delegates, a state that is usually a 50/50 state, your chances are really slim. Bernie needs everything to go right to win, if the economy keeps humming the suburban voters who will decide the election are not harming themselves economically.

[FlameOn]

Trump wins again, there probably won't be another fair un-rigged American election, the Republicans will succeed in corrupting the entire process over the next four years. It's debatable right now whether Trump will even accept a loss even if he is defeated by overwhelming numbers that can overcome the current disinformation, voter, and electoral manipulation efforts.

There needs to be major reform if the Democrats win across the entire process to fix this mess... if it can even be fixed at this point.

[GirlySports]

Polls say Bernie would beat Trump in Florida do I wouldn't concede that so fast. Plus they're Floridians.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Trump wins again, there probably won't be another fair un-rigged American election, the Republicans will succeed in corrupting the entire process over the next four years. It's debatable right now whether Trump will even accept a loss even if he is defeated by overwhelming numbers that can overcome the current disinformation, voter, and electoral manipulation efforts.

There needs to be major reform if the Democrats win across the entire process to fix this mess... if it can even be fixed at this point.

I already said this. Make DC and PR states, expand Supreme Court to 15, give 11 million people citizenship, win Texas forever.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Polls say Bernie would beat Trump in Florida do I wouldn't concede that so fast. Plus they're Floridians.

Yeah, Bernie has a 6 point lead in the latest poll there. State polls can be fickle and it's Florida, but it's not like Trump is a lock there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Yeah, Bernie has a 6 point lead in the latest poll there. State polls can be fickle and it's Florida, but it's not like Trump is a lock there.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-6842.html

Head to head polls where they pit a party nomination candidate against and incumbent are generally fairly useless in terms of predicting the general. I still think they have value in an electability argument as between the party candidates (for example, it would be meaningful to observe that "Klobuchar vs Trump is at 46% while Bernie is at 52%", if those were real poll numbers). But I don't think they have any value at all in telling you who will win a particular state, or the whole thing, if the candidate becomes the party's nominee.

Unless you have some really striking polls, anyway. I guess if you had a half dozen 1000-person-sample polls that showed Trump losing to someone 60-40, or a bunch of polls of people who voted Trump in 2016 in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida that said that a big chunk of those polled would vote for the Democrat, that might be of value. But these "52-47, 50-46" ones, I don't put much stock in.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

Head to head polls where they pit a party nomination candidate against and incumbent are generally fairly useless in terms of predicting the general. I still think they have value in an electability argument as between the party candidates (for example, it would be meaningful to observe that "Klobuchar vs Trump is at 46% while Bernie is at 52%", if those were real poll numbers). But I don't think they have any value at all in telling you who will win a particular state, or the whole thing, if the candidate becomes the party's nominee.

Unless you have some really striking polls, anyway. I guess if you had a half dozen 1000-person-sample polls that showed Trump losing to someone 60-40, or a bunch of polls of people who voted Trump in 2016 in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida that said that a big chunk of those polled would vote for the Democrat, that might be of value. But these "52-47, 50-46" ones, I don't put much stock in.

Oh, I agree. I just meant there really isn't strong evidence to support the notion that Trump is going to run away with Florida, other than his incumbent status.