2019-20 general roster discussion

[TheScorpion]

I feel like we don't have a place on this forum just to discuss the roster and generally how players are doing. Maybe a thread is in order for such a thing!

So.

How about Cam Talbot? I think he's one of the most underrated Flames goalies in years. Could easily be this team's starter and I think the Flames should look to keep him around for the foreseeable future.

Tobi Rieder? I don't mind him. He's a good penalty killer and I'd look at re-signing him.

Janko? I think he should not be qualified, but I think he should be re-signed. I think he has a lot more to give.

Let's talk about our players and their roles on the team, not as trade targets. Who do you like? Dislike? Who should get more ice time? Less?

[Textcritic]

Was a new thread for this necessary? It feels to me like these sorts of conversations just sort of naturally flow out of the Practice Notes, Game Day, Game, and Post-Game threads.

[TheScorpion]

I don't know, it was just an idea. If nobody wants it, so be it.

[Textcritic]

I am kind of a thread-nazi, so what do I know?

I noticed this appeared in another thread today, and maybe it works here?

Originally Posted by Jore

Since this is the closest thread to one dedicated to general Flames roster discussion, I decided to post this here. Evolving Wild's Goals Above Replacement model has the Flames players as follows:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1227687476183158786

Obviously, Lucic at the top is the most surprising, but it also shows the huge discrepancy between our top 3 defenders (Gio, Brodie, Andersson), and the break-even or worse play provided by the bottom 3.

I think Kylington's even strength offense (his biggest detriment) will come around with more opportunity and comfort, but Hamonic is a huge liability defensively, and Hanifin just doesn't seem to do anything especially well except not take penalties and pitch in on the PP.

Mangiapane and Ryan's GAR results track closely to the eye test. Also surprising to me was how good Dube's underlying stats have been, and how poor Bennet's have been.

By this model, Stone has been responsible for -5 goals compared to an equivalent #7 defender, lmao.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am kind of a thread-nazi, so what do I know?

I noticed this appeared in another thread today, and maybe it works here?

Love how you beaked the thread but then posted something of so much value in it!


Some great takeaways from that tweet:

- Rasmus is poised to break out with some better offensive luck. Already a beast on D.
- The eye test is right, none of this "warrior intangibles" junk, Hamonic is the one who is dragging down Hanifin and not vice versa
-Bennett is also not so great...
-Mangiapane, Ryan, Dube all major contributors.

[TheScorpion]

I like Travis Hamonic and I think he's a great guy, but his next contract has the potential to be appalling.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Was a new thread for this necessary? It feels to me like these sorts of conversations just sort of naturally flow out of the Practice Notes, Game Day, Game, and Post-Game threads.

You're literally the loudest voice in the E=NG thread to dump all over anyone who might have any extracurricular talk that doesn't fit the narrative of that thread. Always telling those people to start a new thread if god forbid it doesn't fit the narrative.

Scorp has done precisely that with this thread. You should be applauding him.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

You're literally the loudest voice in the E=NG thread to dump all over anyone who might have any extracurricular talk that doesn't fit the narrative of that thread. Always telling those people to start a new thread if god forbid it doesn't fit the narrative.

Scorp has done precisely that with this thread. You should be applauding him.

Yeah. That's why I added a second post with a reconsidered opinion.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I like Travis Hamonic and I think he's a great guy, but his next contract has the potential to be appalling.

I like him too, but I get shades of Smid's time here. Great locker room guy and will go to battle for any teammates. But Smid fell off a cliff so fast and suddenly. I am waiting for the same thing to happen with Hamonic one day. He's decent enough now. But I just see his style of game falling off sooner rather than later.

I know you're not supposed to trade Dmen during a playoff push and blablabla. But I would see it as a 2 part mistake on BT's part if he doesn't trade Hamonic by the deadline AND signs him to a new deal. Ugh.

[Drunk Uncle]

Here’s my offer to the discussion regarding roster.
I like many others on this board view goal differential as a large predictor to team success. With regards to the Flames I wanted to look at our goal differential by line because I am curious what lines are contributing the plus side vs minus side of the ledger 5V5.

What I particularly like about goal differential by line is that is accounts for a lines defensive and offensive prowess and ultimately shows whether a line is net helping the team 5v5 or not.

Below are the stats I pulled from Natural Stat Trick for goal differential:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm GF: 12, GA: 18, GD: -6, GD/60: -1.02
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane GF: 12, GA: 16, GD: -4, GD/60: -0.48
Tkachuk-Backlund-Mangiapane GF: 6, GA: 5, GD 1, GD/60: 0.35
Gaudreau-Monahan-Backlund GF: 10, GA: 8, GD: 2, GD/60: 0.70
Lucic-Ryan-Dube GF: 13, GA: 6, GD: 7, GD/60: 1.67

The results highlight to me that our 3rd line of Lucic-Ryan-Dube has been by far the best we have at 5V5 (something I think most of us already knew). IMO you leave that line together for sure. Beyond that the options look tricky.

Do you puck Backs back with JG and Monahan? That line looks mediocre at times but it has been more effective 5v5.

If you do that, do you then try to find an upgrade on Mangiapane for the second line?

Do you leave the lines as is and die by the sword if a line that hasn’t been good 5v5 can’t figure it out?

Is there another option?

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

How about Cam Talbot? I think he's one of the most underrated Flames goalies in years. Could easily be this team's starter and I think the Flames should look to keep him around for the foreseeable future.

I'm really happy with Talbot, but I would if there is any interest whatsoever, I would look to trade him (unless he would consider a 1-2 yr extension)

IMO this team needs to gamble on a few things to offset the bad cap hits on the books. Goaltending could be a good spot...long term I hope we can keep the total goalie payroll under 7M (but the lower the better). I'd hope to go no more than 1 yr on the 1B next year, in hopes that Parsons or Zag are ready by the year after (Rittich raise) - or if they are ready sooner, it's not a big deal to bury/trade the R Miller/Howard/C Anderson/Domingue/Halak/Khodobin/Greiss/etc. (aware these guys are all over the place, just guys where a 1 yr deal is conceivable...less likely for the last 3)

It's definitely a risk, but if a poor backup is enough to sink a team, they are a pretender, not contender.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I like him too, but I get shades of Smid's time here. Great locker room guy and will go to battle for any teammates. But Smid fell off a cliff so fast and suddenly. I am waiting for the same thing to happen with Hamonic one day. He's decent enough now. But I just see his style of game falling off sooner rather than later.

I know you're not supposed to trade Dmen during a playoff push and blablabla. But I would see it as a 2 part mistake on BT's part if he doesn't trade Hamonic by the deadline AND signs him to a new deal. Ugh.

I'd rather keep Brodie over Hamonic. Here are the reasons why:

1) This league currently is a league where elite skating gets you places. Advantage Brodie.

2) Which of the two is more familiar playing with Giordano, whether it be in the top pairing or the second pairing in the future? Advantage Brodie.

3) Which one likely has a longer career with their playing style? Advantage Brodie

4) Who is trending up and and who is trending down? Advantage Brodie, who is trending up (back from his dark days).

I get that we are fighting for a playoff spot. But, we did trade Glencross when we were fighting for a playoff spot as a rebuilding team in 2015. I know we aren't necessarily rebuilding, but our team has been playing better without Hamonic, (Stone has really been impressive as of late). We aren't really a legit contender, so I think putting Hamonic up to the Leafs, Jets, or some other team who believe that a top 4 defender can get them in the playoffs should absolutely be an option at this point.

[TheScorpion]

If you could keep Jankowski around after this year at a 1-year deal at around $1 million, would you do it?

His QO is a bit higher but I think any thoughts of qualifying him have fallen by the wayside.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am kind of a thread-nazi, so what do I know?

I noticed this appeared in another thread today, and maybe it works here?

Going to include the follow up post to this for the confused:

Originally Posted by Jore

Goals above replacement is a calculation that tries to measure a player's overall impact compared to a league average (replacement level) player with the same opportunities, ice time and so on. The league average player's impact is taken from a composite calculated from all players in the league from 2007-2019, a huge data set.

EVO stands for even strength offence: the amount of chances generated, goals and assists. EVD is even strength defence: how many shots and chances the player prevents. Again, it's all relative to a supposed league average player.

You can read more about the calculations here.

I wouldn't call this the last word on whether Lucic has been "good," but it's certainly noteworthy and encouraging imo

Anyway, as I see it, the Flames aren't that far off roster-wise. When healthy, the Flames most glaring roster lack is a play driving C, preferably right handed. The other roster weakness, a #4 D, might be found within (Hanifin, Kylington). I hope to god they don't trade Brodie and keep Hamonic.

The main problem is slotting guys where they should be instead of based on perceived quality (Hanifin-Hamonic as a number 2 pairing for 3/4 of the season for example).

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Was a new thread for this necessary? It feels to me like these sorts of conversations just sort of naturally flow out of the Practice Notes, Game Day, Game, and Post-Game threads.

Yes. Down with mega threads. This way people that don't read every page of every thread can enter the discussion and know exactly what's going on.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

If you could keep Jankowski around after this year at a 1-year deal at around $1 million, would you do it?

His QO is a bit higher but I think any thoughts of qualifying him have fallen by the wayside.

I definitely would. This has been an off-year for him in what seems like an off-year for a number of players. He scored 17 and 14 goals in the previous 2 seasons while playing in the bottom 6, and is a strong PK contributor.


I would re-sign him for another year and see if there is a bounce-back. If not, then you can look at cutting bait the season after.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

If you could keep Jankowski around after this year at a 1-year deal at around $1 million, would you do it?

His QO is a bit higher but I think any thoughts of qualifying him have fallen by the wayside.

I'd be fine with a 2x1M. Or 3x1. No QO means he's UFA, right? I am certain there are several teams who would beat 1x1.

[robertsfanatic]

firstly, I like this thread idea - good job.

secondly, I agree with Jore that the roster isn't far off and one good forward would make slotting players onto lines much easier...it could be a center or RW and I would love Kapanen.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am kind of a thread-nazi, so what do I know?

I noticed this appeared in another thread today, and maybe it works here?

That chart makes me a little sad knowing that it's more likely the Flames keep Hamonic than Brodie.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Love how you beaked the thread but then posted something of so much value in it!


Some great takeaways from that tweet:

- Rasmus is poised to break out with some better offensive luck. Already a beast on D.
- The eye test is right, none of this "warrior intangibles" junk, Hamonic is the one who is dragging down Hanifin and not vice versa
-Bennett is also not so great...
-Mangiapane, Ryan, Dube all major contributors.

I don't see how you get the Hamonic - Hanifin conclusion from the chart but maybe I don't get it properly. They both have equally mediocre numbers on that chart, no? I do think they don't mesh well though, whoever is to blame.

I agree with the rest - it meets my eye test almost exactly. Stone has been a real liability this year. Kylington also but I give some rope to him - he's on a big learning curve and you can see the upside.

I've been a big Dube fan all year, despite his lack of production - I love the motor and he already has a decent defensive game. And I've been pumping Lucic's tires all year about what happens when he's on the ice. That whole line is easily the most consistent.

I'm surprised Rinaldo has turned out better than Reider - I would have predicted the latter was just suffering from Oileritis and would bounce back to his AZ norm.