2019-20 point projections

[TheScorpion]

I figured it'd be interesting to take a look at the Flames to see where they stand in terms of their scoring paces.

All figures assume that said player will play each of the remaining 49 games of the season. (Yes, I know this is unrealistic in some cases -- bear with me).

Without further ado, here are the Flames' projected scoring leaders. (Only players with 10+ games are included in this post -- Austin Czarnik, Zac Rinaldo, Alan Quine, and Brandon Davidson have not been included).

1. Matthew Tkachuk
Projected: 81 GP, 30 G, 38 A, 68 P

That's right -- a year after Johnny Gaudreau led the Flames with 99 points (the most of any Flames player since Theo Fleury notched 100 in 1992-93), Matthew Tkachuk is set to pace the Flames with a much more pedestrian 68 points. That figure would've ranked sixth on the 2018-19 Flames. However, things are changing in Calgary, and the team is heating up -- lending credence to the possibility that, for the fifth time in six seasons, the Flames' leading scorer (Tkachuk or otherwise) could surpass 75 points.

2. Sean Monahan
Projected: 82 GP, 25 G, 40 A, 65 P

Monahan is another player who is heating up. He enters Thursday's contest against Toronto on a seven-game point streak and has notched goals in four consecutive games. 25 goals would be the lowest output for Monahan since he tallied 22 in his rookie year, 2013-14. He set a career-high in 2018-19 with 34 goals.

3. Johnny Gaudreau
Projected: 82 GP, 17 G, 43 A, 60 P

17 goals and 60 points would fall just shy of Gaudreau's worst scoring season of his career, 2016-17, which saw him record 18 goals and 61 points in 72 games. Much like Monahan, Gaudreau appears to be breaking out of a funk. He has points in six of his last eight games and is shooting at a career-low 7.3% clip this year.

4. Elias Lindholm
Projected: 82 GP, 35 G, 22 A, 57 P

Under this projected reality, Lindholm would become the first European Flame to claim outright ownership of the team's goal-scoring title since Valeri Bure led the Flames with 35 goals in 1999-2000. He would also join a varied throng of six different Flames single-season goal-scoring leaders since 2010, following a decade of the category being almost exclusively dominated by Jarome Iginla.

5. Derek Ryan
Projected: 82 GP, 12 G, 30 A, 42 P

Ryan has never reached or surpassed the 30-assist or 40-point plateaus in the NHL. He has also never finished higher than seventh on his team in scoring.

6. Mark Giordano
Projected: 82 GP, 10 G, 30 A, 40 P

After blowing away expectations with a Norris-calibre 74-point campaign in 2018-19, Giordano is on track for a season much closer aligned with his 38- and 39-point years under Glen Gulutzan. However, if the projections came true, Giordano would become the second Flames defenseman to ever record seven consecutive seasons of double-digit goals, joining Al MacInnis.

7. Dillon Dube
Projected: 50 GP, 16 G, 22 A, 38 P

This projection could be deemed premature, but as of right now, Dube is on pace to shatter all preseason expectations with a 0.76 P/GP season. If Dube finds time on the second powerplay unit, this projection could very easily become a reality for the rookie.

8. Mikael Backlund
Projected: 82 GP, 7 G, 25 A, 32 P

Backlund is on pace for his worst offensive season in nearly a decade. His shooting percentage of 4.4% is bound to regress positively, but he's also on track to take just 169 shots this year, down from 205 in 2018-19.

9. T.J. Brodie
Projected: 77 GP, 3 G, 25 A, 28 P

A 28-point season would break Brodie's impressive seven-year streak of 30-point campaigns. Three goals would be his fewest since he potted two in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. However, with his powerplay time significantly reduced from years past, this shouldn't be a surprise. Brodie's 5v5 production remains very strong.

10. Andrew Mangiapane
Projected: 80 GP, 16 G, 10 A, 26 P

Mangiapane continues taking steps and a 16-goal sophomore season would be a great achievement. He is currently on track to finish tied for fifth among all Flames in goal-scoring.

11. Rasmus Andersson
Projected: 82 GP, 5 G, 20 A, 25 P

Andersson slots in right behind his old Barrie Colts teammate in Mangiapane. After a 19-point debut year in 2018-19, 5 goals and 25 points would set new high-water marks for Andersson.

12. Milan Lucic
Projected: 80 GP, 8 G, 13 A, 21 P

After his recent hot streak, Lucic is on pace to surpass his goal and point outputs from 2018-19 with Edmonton. He's also on pace to beat James Neal's production in 2018-19, albeit in 17 more games played.

13. Noah Hanifin
Projected: 82 GP, 8 G, 12 A, 20 P

Hanifin is projected to follow up his 33-point 2018-19 campaign, a career-best, with a 20-point year, a career-low. However, eight goals would rank second-best for his career, behind only his 10-goal 2017-18 season.

14. Michael Frolik
Projected: 80 GP, 8 G, 10 A, 18 P

Frolik has recorded at least 25 points in each of the last six seasons. This year, he will most likely not attain that level of production, owing to his reduced role and the inevitable aging curve. It remains to be seen if Frolik will even finish the year in Calgary, seeing as it is the final campaign of his five-year contract.

15. Sam Bennett
Projected: 69 GP, 10 G, 7 A, 17 P

Bennett has missed significant time this season with an injury. His projections assume he will play every game of the season from Thursday onward; however, that is unlikely to occur. It also remains to be seen where Bennett will play when he returns, given the relative chemistry of the Flames' existing units. Either way, Bennett is on track for his worst season, offense-wise, to date.

16. Travis Hamonic
Projected: 76 GP, 3 G, 11 A, 14 P

Another pending UFA, Hamonic has never been renowned for his offensive capabilities, although he did set a career-high with 7 goals in 2018-19.

T17. Tobias Rieder
Projected: 73 GP, 6 G, 6 A, 12 P

Six goals would put Rieder just six goals shy of guaranteeing a playoff berth for the Flames. It would also represent solid production from an ex-PTO and a six-goal upgrade from his zero-goal output with the Oilers in 2018-19.

T17. Michael Stone
Projected: 66 GP, 4 G, 8 A, 12 P

This is where pace stats begin to get a little wonky. Stone is the sixth defenseman on this list, but Oliver Kylington has been playing more frequently and they are unlikely to ever dress in the same game. But, should circumstances dictate Stone play the remaining 49 games of the season, he is on track to register a 12-point season, his highest-scoring as a Flame (not including his 15-point 2016-17 season split between Calgary and Arizona).

19. Oliver Kylington
Projected: 73 GP, 0 G, 9 A, 9 P

Kylington has yet to find much offensive flair in the NHL. Nine assists and points would both stand as bests in his young career. Once again, since Stone and Kylington rotate between the same spot, it is impossible to properly project these two players.

20. Mark Jankowski
Projected: 79 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 P

Jankowski is currently enduring a nightmare season. After notching 31 goals and 57 points in his first 152 NHL games, Jankowski has mustered exactly one secondary assist through the first 40% of 2019-20. It's unclear if he'll even finish the season in Calgary, owing to the emergences of Dillon Dube, Zac Rinaldo, Andrew Mangiapane, and Tobias Rieder. Matthew Phillips' recall also complicates things. But Jankowski, a former first-round pick, has the talent to begin scoring again if he keeps getting games. He has the ability to add another dimension to the Flames' attack. But so far this year, the once-potent shorthanded goal specialist has mustered exactly zero primary points and has been on the ice for just three goals for.

[TheScorpion]

One more thing: although he's not likely to continue this current pace, Zac Rinaldo could very easily post the first 10-point season of his long career.

[DeluxeMoustache]

If I understand correctly, you took their current pace and extrapolated. I see a fair number of overs emerging

[agulati]

Will be interesting to see how the point projections track pre and post Ward, once we have a bigger sample size under the new coach.

[TheScorpion]

Update, a month later.

Here's how every player stands, pace-wise, two games into the new year.

Bolded figures would set new career highs.

1. Matthew Tkachuk
Projected: 81 GP, 28 G, 40 A, 68 P

2. Johnny Gaudreau
Projected: 82 GP, 20 G, 45 A, 65 P

3. Sean Monahan
Projected: 82 GP, 26 G, 37 A, 63 P

4. Elias Lindholm
Projected: 82 GP, 30 G, 30 A, 60 P

5. Derek Ryan
Projected: 82 GP, 13 G, 28 A, 41 P

T6. Mikael Backlund
Projected: 82 GP, 11 G, 26 A, 37 P

T6. Mark Giordano
Projected: 82 GP, 9 G, 28 A, 37 P

8. Andrew Mangiapane
Projected: 80 GP, 15 G, 14 A, 29 P

9. TJ Brodie
Projected: 76 GP, 2 G, 24 A, 26 P

10. Dillon Dube
Projected: 58 GP, 9 G, 14 A, 23 P

11. Rasmus Andersson
Projected: 82 GP, 5 G, 17 A, 22 P

12. Noah Hanifin
Projected: 82 GP, 7 G, 13 A, 20 P

13. Milan Lucic
Projected: 80 GP, 8 G, 11 A, 19 P

14. Travis Hamonic
Projected: 76 GP, 6 G, 10 A, 16 P

15. Sam Bennett
Projected: 66 GP, 9 G, 5 A, 14 P

16. Tobias Rieder
Projected: 73 GP, 4 G, 10 A, 14 P

17. Michael Stone
Projected: 60 GP, 5 G, 5 A, 10 P (unlikely)

18. Oliver Kylington
Projected: 69 GP, 2 G, 7 A, 9 P

19. Mark Jankowski
Projected: 73 GP, 0 G, 2 A, 2 P

[Samonadreau]

Mangy needs more production to stay in top 6

[shadowlord]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Mangy needs more production to stay in top 6

Since he was promoted to the top line (or top-6) after Bill Peters' last game coached vs PIT on Nov. 26, he's had 6 points in 17 games.

His usual linemates (Tkachuk & Lindholm) have 15 and 14 points in that same span, respectively. I guess the difference must be the fact that Mangiapane doesn't play on the powerplay... although I doesn't feel like our powerplay has seemed that deadly lately.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Since he was promoted to the top line (or top-6) after Bill Peters' last game coached vs PIT on Nov. 26, he's had 6 points in 17 games.

His usual linemates (Tkachuk & Lindholm) have 15 and 14 points in that same span, respectively. I guess the difference must be the fact that Mangiapane doesn't play on the powerplay... although I doesn't feel like our powerplay has seemed that deadly lately.

Which I don't understand. Mangiapane would be a decent weapon on his off wing. He has a good one timer if given the chance (and not afraid to).

[TheScorpion]

Time for another update with 25 games remaining. Players with red names are injured, and some small calculations have been made with consideration of their injuries, but it is impossible to know whether they will be back in two games or 10.

1. Matthew Tkachuk
Projected: 81 GP, 27 G, 38 A, 65 P

2. Johnny Gaudreau
Projected: 82 GP, 20 G, 45 A, 65 P

3. Elias Lindholm
Projected: 82 GP, 32 G, 30 A, 62 P

4. Sean Monahan
Projected: 82 GP, 24 G, 33 A, 57 P

5. Mikael Backlund
Projected: 82 GP, 10 G, 30 A, 40 P

6. Mark Giordano
Projected: 77 GP, 7 G, 32 A, 39 P

7. Derek Ryan
Projected: 82 GP, 14 G, 25 A, 39 P

8. Andrew Mangiapane
Projected: 79 GP, 14 G, 13 A, 27 P

9. Noah Hanifin
Projected: 82 GP, 7 G, 17 A, 24 P

10. Dillon Dube
Projected: 58 GP, 9 G, 14 A, 23 P

11. Milan Lucic
Projected: 79 GP, 9 G, 14 A, 23 P

12. Rasmus Andersson
Projected: 82 GP, 6 G, 17 A, 23 P

13. TJ Brodie
Projected: 76 GP, 2 G, 19 A, 21 P

14. Travis Hamonic
Projected: 72 GP, 4 G, 13 A, 17 P

15. Tobi Rieder
Projected: 63 GP, 6 G, 7 A, 13 P

16. Sam Bennett
Projected: 65 GP, 7 G, 6 A, 13 P

17. Zac Rinaldo
Projected: 20 GP, 4 G, 3 A, 7 P

18. Mark Jankowski
Projected: 62 GP, 4 G, 3 A, 7 P

19. Oliver Kylington
Projected: 67 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 P

20. Michael Stone
Projected: 37 GP, 3 G, 3 A, 6 P

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Ugh. That is awful

So many underachievements

[TheScorpion]

Time for another update. 15 games remaining.

It's fun to look through all these updates at how Mikael Backlund's projection has steadily improved over time. From 32 points to over 50 now...

1. Matthew Tkachuk
Projected: 81 GP, 26 G, 43 A, 69 P

2. Johnny Gaudreau
Projected: 82 GP, 21 G, 48 A, 69 P

3. Elias Lindholm
Projected: 82 GP, 34 G, 31 A, 65 P

4. Sean Monahan
Projected: 82 GP, 27 G, 29 A, 56 P

5. Mikael Backlund
Projected: 82 GP, 18 G, 33 A, 51 P

6. Mark Giordano
Projected: 72 GP, 6 G, 32 A, 38 P

7. Andrew Mangiapane
Projected: 80 GP, 21 G, 15 A, 36 P

8. Derek Ryan
Projected: 80 GP, 12 G, 24 A, 36 P

9. Noah Hanifin
Projected: 82 GP, 6 G, 21 A, 27 P

10. Rasmus Andersson
Projected: 82 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 26 P

11. Milan Lucic
Projected: 80 GP, 9 G, 13 A, 22 P

12. TJ Brodie
Projected: 76 GP, 2 G, 19 A, 21 P

13. Dillon Dube
Projected: 57 GP, 7 G, 13 A, 20 P

14. Sam Bennett
Projected: 64 GP, 10 G, 5 A, 15 P

15. Tobias Rieder
Projected: 68 GP, 5 G, 8 A, 13 P

16. Travis Hamonic
Projected: 50 GP, 3 G, 8 A, 12 P
Projection assumes he misses the rest of the regular season with injury

17. Erik Gustafsson
Projected: 19 GP, 0 G, 10 A, 10 P

18. Mark Jankowski
Projected: 68 GP, 6 G, 3 A, 9 P

19. Michael Stone
Projected: 40 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 8 P

20. Oliver Kylington
Projected: 59 GP, 2 G, 6 A, 8 P

21. Zac Rinaldo
Projected: 22 GP, 4 G, 2 A, 6 P

22. Derek Forbort
Projected: 19 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 P

[Jiri Hrdina]

Amazing that now Backlund is tracking above his career average for points, and could actually set a new career high with a hot finish
Quite the turnaround

[dissentowner]

Even more amazing is how much our point totals suck this year for the talent we have on this club. Of course if we actually had a real head coach with an actual system....

[djsFlames]

Comparing initial to current projections shows that

Tkachuk 68 -> 69 has been steady this season, largely independent of the ebbs and flows of the rest of the team. Just more proof that he is future captain material

Gaudreau 60 -> 69 has elevated his game since december, much closer to his PPG norm, very consistent in the last two to three weeks

Monahan 65 -> 56 has struggled in the second half, pretty much the opposite of what Gaudreau has done in terms of trajectory

Lindholm 57 -> 65 started out strong and has continued to elevate, has found a knack for the net as he will set a career high in goals, by how much is yet to be determined

Backlund 32 -> 51 is the team's most improved player in 19-20 and I could see him even surpassing that total the way he's going

Giordano 40 -> 38 gio has been gio, missed some time which hurts totals, but is a lock to be a 0.5 PPG+ and best all around defenseman yet again

In terms of the top players on the team, on the whole it looks like the core has elevated its game at the right time. Those who were playing well have remained consistent and those that were struggling have taken strides, notably Backlund. The exception to this has been Monahan. If he can follow suit (had 4? goals on the trip which is a step forward) in the final weeks we'll be in great shape at the most important time.

[nieuwy-89]

Bennett is interesting to me. Visually I would say he’s improved as the season has gone on, but his projections remain flat. After such a productive junior career, and promising rookie season, this season will see the continuation of a downward trend line.

Others have said it better than me, but the difference between having Bennett as a 30-30-60, 75-100 PIM, first line centre, and the current version of Bennett, is the difference between the Flames being a contender vs a bubble team.

[Hackey]

Bennett is tied with Hamonic for points right now.

[Samonadreau]

I think you have to give Gustafsson and Forbort the full season's points. Just personal opinion.