Unpopular Opinions about Flames

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by nik-

Some people are going to cling to that 2nd place finish until it's something like "Just three seasons ago we finished second in the league!"

It didn't matter. The Flames got exposed. For the last quarter of the season last year they were an average team and they got embarrassed in the playoffs. The second place regular season finish is a mirage and now we're just continuing on the trajectory that started post ASG last season.

This is not a team that can win it all. It needs changes, but it's the Flames, so they'll tinker around the edges and wait too long to trade valuable components and then we'll just be back here again in 5 years.

And no, stability isn't a virtue when you're cementing mediocrity.

Excellent post.
The only thing last year did was add another stat line to the long history of the Flames choking in the first round.

And frankly, for those that are fine with the team as it is -- even Treliving isn't, which is why he tried to pull the trigger on significant trades. The man building the team doesn't even think this team has what it takes to contend. It's as clear as day that this team needs something different/more to get to another level.

[SuperMatt18]

Personally I still don't think you need to go full scorched earth re-build here. I look at the Blues and Capitals as the frame work. Be aggressive in trades and add to the core.

Flames have some key elements that are good pieces for this team long term, whether they are core pieces or strong support pieces.

Core Forwards: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm
Support Forwards: Backlund, Mangiapane, Dube, (Also Pelletier, Pettersen as blue chipers)

Core DMen: Giordano, Hanifin, Valimaki
Support DMen: Andersson, Kylington (Also Yelesin looks good)

Core Goalie: Rittich

Then I think you have deadweight long term in Lucic who is likely unmoveable.

So overall as pieces that I think this team will have long term you have 8 forwards, 5 dmen and a goalie.

So then you look at potential moveable pieces or pieces that might hold value in a trade or are expiring after this season.

Forward
-Ryan - 2 years at $3.125M - Trade
-Bennett - 2 years at $2.55M (RFA) - Trade to Montreal for 2020 2nd
-Frolik - 1 year at $4.3M
-Jankowski - 1 year at $1.675M (RFA) - Trade

Defense
-Brodie - 1 year at $4.65M
-Hanifin - 1 year at $3.85M

Flames will have some cap space to be able to make moves to add to this roster

Right wing: Andrew Mangiapane ($3,000,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Tuuola/Phillips) ($809,167)

Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Gawdin/Quine) ($1,000,000)

Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($7,000,000) - Dillon Dubé ($778,333) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000)

RD: Rasmus Andersson ($3,500,000) - Juuso Välimäki ($894,166)
LD: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($2,500,000) - Alexander Yelesin ($925,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cheap Backup ($1,000,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 18
Salary Cap: $82,000,000
Cap Hit: $67,098,333
Cap Space: $14,901,667

That $14M could go a long way to improving the Roster next season as long as they are willing to maybe make some tough decisions this year to try to stock pile some assets. Also I feel like the team should be willing to move out anybody from the core, just need to be sure to get a good return back on those players.

Personally I think they likely look at UFA like Radko Gudas on defense since hes a tough d-man who can actually play and PK. Then use the cap space to add a top 6 forward (RW/C), and a 3rd line forward (RW).

Really what we need this season / next offseason is our version of the TJ Oshie/Lars Eller or Ryan O'Reilly/Brayden Schenn trades. Adding those final top 6 pieces to the core without really giving up anything of consequence of the roster.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Personally I still don't think you need to go full scorched earth re-build here. Flames have some key elements that are good pieces for this team long term, whether they are core pieces or strong support pieces.

Core Forwards: Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Monahan, Lindholm
Support Forwards: Backlund, Mangiapane, Dube, (Also Pelletier, Pettersen as blue chipers)

Core DMen: Giordano, Hanifin, Valimaki
Support DMen: Andersson, Kylington (Also Yelesin looks good)

Core Goalie: Rittich

Then I think you have deadweight long term in Lucic who is likely unmoveable.

So overall as pieces that I think this team will have long term you have 8 forwards, 5 dmen and a goalie.

So then you look at potential moveable pieces or pieces that might hold value in a trade or are expiring after this season.

Forward
-Ryan - 2 years at $3.125M - Trade to
-Bennett - 2 years at $2.55M (RFA) - Trade to Montreal for 2020 2nd
-Frolik - 1 year at $4.3M
-Jankowski - 1 year at $1.675M (RFA) - Trade

Defense
-Brodie - 1 year at $4.65M
-Hanifin - 1 year at $3.85M

Flames will have some cap space to be able to make moves to add to this roster

Right wing: Andrew Mangiapane ($3,000,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Tuuola/Phillips) ($809,167)

Centre: Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Elias Lindholm ($4,850,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Farm Team Call Up (Gawdin/Quine) ($1,000,000)

Left wing: Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Matthew Tkachuk ($7,000,000) - Dillon Dubé ($778,333) - Milan Lucic ($5,250,000)

RD: Rasmus Andersson ($3,500,000) - Juuso Välimäki ($894,166)
LD: Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Noah Hanifin ($4,950,000) - Oliver Kylington ($2,500,000) - Alexander Yelesin ($925,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
David Rittich ($2,750,000) - Cheap Backup ($1,000,000)

BUYOUTS (2)
Troy Brouwer ($1,500,000) - Michael Stone ($1,166,667)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 18
Salary Cap: $82,000,000
Cap Hit: $67,098,333
Cap Space: $14,901,667

That $14M could go a long way to improving the Roster next season as long as they are willing to maybe make some tough decisions this year to try to stock pile some assets.

I don't disagree with your sentiment. Though, I do feel that Treliving should try to move Backlund outta here and upgrade the 2nd line position.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

I don't disagree with your sentiment. Though, I do feel that Treliving should try to move Backlund outta here and upgrade the 2nd line position.

I agree actually.

I had him on the tradeable asset list at first, but moved him back since he does carry a 5 year contract still and he might be more valuable on the ice then he would be in a trade at this point.

[delayedreflex]

Seems like the true unpopular opinion now would be that the Flames' core DOES have what it takes to go all the way.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by nik-

Some people are going to cling to that 2nd place finish until it's something like "Just three seasons ago we finished second in the league!"

It didn't matter. The Flames got exposed. For the last quarter of the season last year they were an average team and they got embarrassed in the playoffs. The second place regular season finish is a mirage and now we're just continuing on the trajectory that started post ASG last season.

100% fair assessment

This is not a team that can win it all. It needs changes, but it's the Flames, so they'll tinker around the edges

100% overreaction

The hockey playoffs are incredibly random and all it takes is a hot two month stretch from a talented team to win it all. In the last decade you can look at the stories of the 2011 Bruins, 2012 Kings, 2013 Blackhawks, 2014 Kings, 2015 Blackhawks, 2016 Penguins, 2017 Penguins, 2018 Capitals, and 2019 Blues to realize a few things:

- Some of those teams had elite scoring wingers (Patrick Kane or Alex Ovechkin) but none of them were without their flaws or past failings (the Capitals took over a decade to get past round 2, Patrick Kane is hardly a two-way player)

- Many of these teams weren't even particularily high-scoring in the regular season. Some of them didn't even post strong regular season records

- many of these teams were only a season or less away from massive failures of their own (2016 Blackhawks got swept in round 1, 2015 Kings got eliminated from the playoffs by a team rolling Josh Jooris in its top six for much of the year, 2018-19 Blues were something like dead last in the league as late as December, 2010 Bruins choked a 3-0 series lead, 2012 Kings barely scraped into the playoffs after a coaching change saved their season, 2016 Penguins were out of a playoff spot in December and needed AHL callups and midseason panic moves to suddenly start playing like one of the best teams ever, 2017 Penguins were without their #1 Defenseman and got outplayed in almost every game in their entire run outside of the cup-clincher, saved only by their "1B" goalie being absolutely on fire and stealing multiple series.

- talent-wise, the gap isn't clear either, outside of the Penguins teams. Most of those teams on paper were better down the middle but even then guys like Bergeron and Kopitar and ROR were not considered what they are until after they won it all.

[zamler]

It's not that random. Teams that win the Cup almost always have a true #1 center, a Norris calibre or winning defenseman and a world class goalie. Or it can be a variation but essentially the same thing, Caps won in part because Ovechkin elevated his game (assisted on the goal that took out the Pens).

[TheSquatch]

I agree with the "cemented mediocrity" take.

Ownership/management's mandate for the team, for as long as I can remember, has been "make the playoffs".

Darryl Sutter as GM always talked about being just a piece away from that big run. In reality he had stellar goaltending and not much else. Enough for some first round exits. And he gave up all kinds of picks and prospects for "win now" stuff.

When Feaster took over, I thought "Oh good, a new vision." His first press conference, he talked about how he was going to take the team in a new direction, and the mandate was to make the playoffs. So...exact same thing as before.

With Treliving, it's clearly the same thing - he was handed some nice pieces and moves like the Hanifin/Lindholm trade were obvious attempts to shore up the missing elements of the team, and the moves he tried to make this summer were more of the same. We're just about there!

The trouble is, was, and will continue to be, Flames pick about 10th-20th every year - they are good enough to never get that superstar in the draft, and bad enough to not win it all, and the ownership group is totally fine with that, or the mandate of perpetual playoff hockey would change.

This isn't Tre's fault, it wasn't Feaster's fault either (although Hertl instead of Jankowski would feel good). The issue is that the team has mediocre talent coming up, our very best farm guys turn into decent NHLers - Rasmus is going to be one of those guys, looks like he's going to have a nice career, but he's not Shea Weber. And that's what the team can expect, at best, year after year.

The farm kids are competing with Toby Reider for a spot on this team. Our bottom 6 isn't great, and our top 6... isn't good enough. Tight on the cap and the team has a pile of forwards who would (and just did in Rieder's case) clear waivers.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The hockey playoffs are incredibly random and all it takes is a hot two month stretch from a talented team to win it all. In the last decade you can look at the stories of the 2011 Bruins, 2012 Kings, 2013 Blackhawks, 2014 Kings, 2015 Blackhawks, 2016 Penguins, 2017 Penguins, 2018 Capitals, and 2019 Blues to realize a few things:

I'd say all of those teams (except the Blues) had elite players at key positions.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by nik-

Some people are going to cling to that 2nd place finish until it's something like "Just three seasons ago we finished second in the league!"

It didn't matter. The Flames got exposed. For the last quarter of the season last year they were an average team and they got embarrassed in the playoffs. The second place regular season finish is a mirage and now we're just continuing on the trajectory that started post ASG last season.

This is not a team that can win it all. It needs changes, but it's the Flames, so they'll tinker around the edges and wait too long to trade valuable components and then we'll just be back here again in 5 years.

And no, stability isn't a virtue when you're cementing mediocrity.

What is the answer? Fire Treliving? Blow the team up? 84pts to 107pts and we must blow the team up? No rational GM would blow a team up that struggles in month one of the season and if this team struggles mightily you can be assured they will move their pending UFA’s for assets and put core players on the block next summer.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Igottago

Excellent post.
The only thing last year did was add another stat line to the long history of the Flames choking in the first round.

And frankly, for those that are fine with the team as it is -- even Treliving isn't, which is why he tried to pull the trigger on significant trades. The man building the team doesn't even think this team has what it takes to contend. It's as clear as day that this team needs something different/more to get to another level.

Who is truly fine with the team the way it is? Let’s be realistic here. Treliving clearly tried to make moves to improve the team as the 2 leaked “done” trades that fell through prove.

What is it you suggest they do?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

What is the answer? Fire Treliving? Blow the team up? 84pts to 107pts and we must blow the team up? No rational GM would blow a team up that struggles in month one of the season and if this team struggles mightily you can be assured they will move their pending UFA’s for assets and put core players on the block next summer.

People think that progression is a straight line in the NHL when really it's not.

It's random and sticking to a long term vision and goal (while always making tweaks to improve the team long term) is the best plan in the NHL. Treliving clearly wasn't happy with the team, and he tried to improve it this offseason, it didn't work out. But that doesn't mean you go and blow it up.

Look at St.Louis.

2012-2015 - Three straight first round exits
2015-2016 - Conference Finals
2016-2017 - 2nd Round Loss
2017-2018 - Missed the playoffs
2018-2019 - Last place on Dec. 31st, Won The Stanley Cup

or Washington

2012-2013 - First Round Loss
2013-2014 - Missed Playoffs
2014-2017 - 2nd Round Losses
2017-2018 - Won the Cup in a season that everyone thought would be a step back for them.

Progression in the NHL is not linear. Flames still have good young forwards, they have developing young d-men, and they will have a bunch of cap space this offseason due to expiring contracts.

This doesn't need a scorched earth re-build but just some smart tweaking and personally I'd think about moving all of our UFAs for picks/assets come the trade deadline even if we are in a playoff spot. Just keep making smart trades (Kadri for Brodie was a great example of the type of trade the Flames need to win), stop signing aging UFAs, and they will be fine.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by troutman

I'd say all of those teams (except the Blues) had elite players at key positions.

The Flames don’t? Johnny, Tkachuk, and Gio are all elite players.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

People think that progression is a straight line in the NHL when really it's not.

It's random and sticking to a long term vision and goal (while always making tweaks to improve the team long term) is the best plan in the NHL.

I agree with you and am as frustrated as anyone about the good year, bad year trend this team has been on since they finally made the playoffs again in 2015. If they miss the playoffs this year we can almost be certain another blockbuster trade is coming at the draft this year.

[CalgaryFan1988]

The Flames have more than just one problem, but one of the big problems was the 2014 entry draft. Players from that season should be in their prime now, we have nobody.

People can whine and bitch about not having high picks or trading them away, but if you have a draft like 2014.... what's the point?

If Bennett would have turned out to be the #1C we've been missing since (arguably) Nieuwendyk, the Flames would have a totally different look. Monahan would be our second line C where he belongs.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

The Flames have more than just one problem, but one of the big problems was the 2014 entry draft. Players from that season should be in their prime now, we have nobody.

People can whine and bitch about not having high picks or trading them away, but if you have a draft like 2014.... what's the point?

If Bennett would have turned out to be the #1C we've been missing since (arguably) Nieuwendyk, the Flames would have a totally different look. Monahan would be our second line C where he belongs.

Sometimes when you draft rundblad you gotta trade him for a pick that becomes tarasenko.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

or Washington

2012-2013 - First Round Loss
2013-2014 - Missed Playoffs
2014-2017 - 2nd Round Losses
2017-2018 - Won the Cup in a season that everyone thought would be a step back for them.

Caps had been repeatedly bested by Crosby and Malkin two elite players so I don't see it as a good comparison. When Washington finally beat the Pens they won the Cup.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

The Flames have more than just one problem, but one of the big problems was the 2014 entry draft. Players from that season should be in their prime now, we have nobody.

People can whine and bitch about not having high picks or trading them away, but if you have a draft like 2014.... what's the point?

If Bennett would have turned out to be the #1C we've been missing since (arguably) Nieuwendyk, the Flames would have a totally different look. Monahan would be our second line C where he belongs.

This is the one that stands out to me too - another top 6 forward would be huge for this team.

The Bennett pick isn't even the one that makes me mad in that draft - since him or Dal Colle were pretty much the consensus picks at number 4 / 5.

Would I love to have Ehlers, Larkin, or Pastrnak...of course but those guys were never really in the discussion at #4. Bennett was the right pick at the time. He was the skilled, gritty center this team needed, he was highly touted, but he just failed to develop (Whether that's on him or the organization is a different question).

The two that piss me off in that draft are:

1) Taking McDonald over Demko when Demko was the #1 ranked goalie in that draft.

2) Not drafting Point and instead drafting Hunter Smith and Brandon Hickey. Point was the local kid who was rumored to have been public about wanting to play in Calgary, and who lots of media members were clamoring for the Flames to draft.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

What is the answer? Fire Treliving? Blow the team up? 84pts to 107pts and we must blow the team up? No rational GM would blow a team up that struggles in month one of the season and if this team struggles mightily you can be assured they will move their pending UFA’s for assets and put core players on the block next summer.

I think the team needs major changes, yeah. You're also thinking this is one month in a season, this is basically the last part of last year, the playoffs and now continuing into this season. And even that stretch is just a reappearance of issues we've seen before interrupted by a stellar section of last season. The playoffs should have put the fear of god into the management team of this franchise, because it reaffirmed a lot of the questions that have been lingering for a while around the heart of this team.

Do we want to be a middle of the pack regular season team or do we want to win? If we want to win we need big piece, fundamental changes on this roster.

Unfortunately I think the ownership is content with a decent turnout in the regular season and some playoff games and don't want to take the chance to restructure and go for it.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The Flames don’t? Johnny, Tkachuk, and Gio are all elite players.

I should have defined what I mean by “elite”. I mean HOF level players, not just great players.