The Matthew Tkachuk contract negotiations

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by New Era

If he isn't signed by the final week of training camp, shut him down for the year. Yeah, it would hurt the team, but so would having him come in post training camp and delivering a Nylander-esque performance. It's been shown that players who miss camp rarely catch up to the rest of the league, so if he's unlikely to perform up to his salary, make him miss the season and establish that hard line in the sand for future negotiations. It's kind of like Brian Burke and his refusal to trade Cammalleri for a pick, trying to show you won't give things away for a diminishing return.

This is the dumbest idea ever. That won't establish a hard line, that will make the player want out while hurting the team at the same time.

[SuperMatt18]

Really if you look at Boeser, Draisaitl, and Aho as his closest comparable players based on production the last two years then I think the deal becomes more clear.

The last two seasons in all situations:

Goals/60
Boeser: 1.37
Tkachuk: 1.35
Draisaitl: 1.34
Aho: 1.16

Points/60
Draisaitl: 3.13
Tkachuk: 2.93
Aho: 2.91
Boeser:2.77

So that's the comparable grouping.

Aho: 5 years @ $8.5M
Draisaitl: 6 years @ $8.5M remaining
Boeser: 3 years @ $5.875M

So I think for him you could say that a 3 year deal would be a similar value to Boeser, and then tack on 3 more years at a higher value after that. Also that type of salary structure, let's you maybe pay a lower "Gio/Johnny Cap" real salary those first three years.

Say something like this:

19/20: $6.75M
20/21: $6.75M
21/22: $6.75M
22/23: $9.5M
23/24: $10.25M
24/25: $11.0M

That gets you to $51M for 6 years, and an $8.5M cap hit for the 6 years. That feels pretty fair to both sides to me, and in line with his closest comparable players.

[bax]

Originally Posted by New Era

If he isn't signed by the final week of training camp, shut him down for the year. Yeah, it would hurt the team, but so would having him come in post training camp and delivering a Nylander-esque performance. It's been shown that players who miss camp rarely catch up to the rest of the league, so if he's unlikely to perform up to his salary, make him miss the season and establish that hard line in the sand for future negotiations. It's kind of like Brian Burke and his refusal to trade Cammalleri for a pick, trying to show you won't give things away for a diminishing return.

This would be a disaster. How does Treliving justify to owners and fans that one of our very best players will miss an entire year during our prime to contend because he needs to invent an imaginary hard deadline?

You have to work with players, it's a two way street. This would just create animosity now and into the future.

Even Tkachuk at 85% is better than most players on the team.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

You can't just shut it down for the year, but if it stretches into the season, the Flames would need to offer less, just to keep the cap hit equal to what he could have signed prior to the season (see Nylander, William). It would be bad for both parties.
Hopefully will not come to that, but if he sat the year, would it affect his UFA status down the road?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This is the dumbest idea ever. That won't establish a hard line, that will make the player want out while hurting the team at the same time.

Ah gotcha. Its okay to let the player hurt the team so long as the team doesn't hurt his feelings. Sorry, team before player. I agree with Winter that there needs to be a hard deadline in place. The Flames can impose that hard deadline. Put your best offer on the table (a long term and a bridge) then say you sign by this date or you sit the season. It's nothing personal, its business.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by getbak

He had such a weird stat line last year. 21 goals by the end of November. 9 the rest of the season.

18 goals in November. No more than 4 in any other month. Two months with only 1 goal.

In November, he had a 4 game stretch where he had 11 goals. In the other 78 games of the season, he had only 19 goals.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bax

This would be a disaster. How does Treliving justify to owners and fans that one of our very best players will miss an entire year during our prime to contend because he needs to invent an imaginary hard deadline?

You have to work with players, it's a two way street. This would just create animosity now and into the future.

Even Tkachuk at 85% is better than most players on the team.

Because (a) the contractual demands were too high; (b) the cap space wouldn't allow the demands; and (c) the benefits of having the player diminish, probably exponentially, the longer the holdout goes. The deadline cited wouldn't be the one I'd use, but there has to be some line, and IMO it's not December.

It's also disaster to overpay, possibly moving good players to make it work cap-wise, and then get a mediocre performance for that salary.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by New Era

Ah gotcha. Its okay to let the player hurt the team so long as the team doesn't hurt his feelings. Sorry, team before player. I agree with Winter that there needs to be a hard deadline in place. The Flames can impose that hard deadline. Put your best offer on the table (a long term and a bridge) then say you sign by this date or your sit the season. It's nothing personal, its business.

Having a player that is an absolute key piece to contending this season sit out the entire season is not putting the team before the player, it is severely handicapping the team because negotiations didn't get done before the regular season.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Having a player that is an absolute key piece to contending this season sit out the entire season is not putting the team before the player, it is severely handicapping the team because negotiations didn't get done before the regular season.

I don't think Tkachuk is as key as some people. And you are assuming that negotiations aren't at an impasse because of the team (and not Tkachuk).

If you aren't prepared to have Tkachuk sit in any circumstance, you have to pay him whatever he asks.

[Roof-Daddy]

I hate to say it but I'd rather Tkachuk sit out all year than have him mess up the Flames cap structure.

Just because one idiot GM gave out a ####ty RFA contract doesn't mean they all should.

Stand your ground BT.

[The Fonz]

I'm starting to think we just see a 2yr deal around 6M per. The cap space is already there, and all of Frolik, Ryan, Brodie, and Hamonic's deals will have expired (as well as Stone's 1.2M buyout), with younger/cheaper players likely replacing atleast 3 of these 4 guys.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Having a player that is an absolute key piece to contending this season sit out the entire season is not putting the team before the player, it is severely handicapping the team because negotiations didn't get done before the regular season.

It is a lose lose if the player sits.

A seasoned negotiator will understand not only what the team stands to lose, but also what the player stands to lose as well if they choose to sit out

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Having a player that is an absolute key piece to contending this season sit out the entire season is not putting the team before the player, it is severely handicapping the team because negotiations didn't get done before the regular season.

Having a player that is considered a key piece hold out and be a distraction is just as bad. I'd rather the team had the roster in place and tried to win with the guys that want to be in the dressing room and not worry about those that don't. What would be worse is landing on your team, having them get on a roll, having Tkachuk sign, then having to jettison a couple bodies to make room. Consider the Leafs were 20-8-0 (.714 W%) prior to signing Nylander. They were 26-20-8 (.485 W%) after the signing. Not saying it would happen in Calgary, but also don't want to take the risk. Play with the guys who want to be here.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by New Era

If he isn't signed by the final week of training camp, shut him down for the year. Yeah, it would hurt the team, but so would having him come in post training camp and delivering a Nylander-esque performance. It's been shown that players who miss camp rarely catch up to the rest of the league, so if he's unlikely to perform up to his salary, make him miss the season and establish that hard line in the sand for future negotiations. It's kind of like Brian Burke and his refusal to trade Cammalleri for a pick, trying to show you won't give things away for a diminishing return.

yeah that worked out great

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really if you look at Boeser, Draisaitl, and Aho as his closest comparable players based on production the last two years then I think the deal becomes more clear.

The last two seasons in all situations:

Goals/60
Boeser: 1.37
Tkachuk: 1.35
Draisaitl: 1.34
Aho: 1.16

Points/60
Draisaitl: 3.13
Tkachuk: 2.93
Aho: 2.91
Boeser:2.77

So that's the comparable grouping.

Aho: 5 years @ $8.5M
Draisaitl: 6 years @ $8.5M remaining
Boeser: 3 years @ $5.875M

So I think for him you could say that a 3 year deal would be a similar value to Boeser, and then tack on 3 more years at a higher value after that. Also that type of salary structure, let's you maybe pay a lower "Gio/Johnny Cap" real salary those first three years.

Say something like this:

19/20: $6.75M
20/21: $6.75M
21/22: $6.75M
22/23: $9.5M
23/24: $10.25M
24/25: $11.0M

That gets you to $51M for 6 years, and an $8.5M cap hit for the 6 years. That feels pretty fair to both sides to me, and in line with his closest comparable players.

This isn't a bad proposal. The one thing I'd say is that Aho and Draisaitl were signed as centres (Aho a number one centre and Draisaitl as a Malkin like 1A). To me that's a premium as far as salary. Also, Aho was an offer sheet which Tkachuk apparently hasn't gotten (at least, not one he signed). I think Aho's offers from the team were way below that salary, but they got their hand forced by Montreal.

So I'd go somewhere between them and Boeser.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Laine is NOT an upgrade...especially at 11M, come on now

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I don't think Tkachuk is as key as some people. And you are assuming that negotiations aren't at an impasse because of the team (and not Tkachuk).

If you aren't prepared to have Tkachuk sit in any circumstance, you have to pay him whatever he asks.

If you are not prepared to pay Tkachuk what the market is you trade him, you don't just sit him the whole year. That doesn't help anyone.

[Manhattanboy]

People are frustrated because its impacting team preparations for the season.

There should be a deadline for contract execution.

And the pre-season is two weeks too long....

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If you are not prepared to pay Tkachuk what the market is you trade him, you don't just sit him the whole year. That doesn't help anyone.

You are assuming (a) he's asking market and (b) the market is what you think it is.

IMO Treliving has been pretty consistent with RFA market prices. I've never thought he got a steal, but I've thought he got good market prices for his stars. He has managed to get in early on some guys like Gaudreau and Lindholm, before their biggest years. But while people said "that's a pretty good deal" for Lindholm, for example, no one said Lindy got jobbed. So I have a fair degree of confidence that he's not being unrealistic with Tkachuk.

On the other hand, Tkachuk may be getting advice from his dad, who was a nasty contract negotiator (and renegotiator).

[flambers]

Problem with this time of scenario its likely a player could miss the entire training camp....

Two recent examples with Gaudreau and Nylander show, its very likely the players performance will have a large impact....

Hopefully this is sorted out sooner the better.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really if you look at Boeser, Draisaitl, and Aho as his closest comparable players based on production the last two years then I think the deal becomes more clear.

The last two seasons in all situations:

Goals/60
Boeser: 1.37
Tkachuk: 1.35
Draisaitl: 1.34
Aho: 1.16

Points/60
Draisaitl: 3.13
Tkachuk: 2.93
Aho: 2.91
Boeser:2.77

So that's the comparable grouping.

Aho: 5 years @ $8.5M
Draisaitl: 6 years @ $8.5M remaining
Boeser: 3 years @ $5.875M

So I think for him you could say that a 3 year deal would be a similar value to Boeser, and then tack on 3 more years at a higher value after that. Also that type of salary structure, let's you maybe pay a lower "Gio/Johnny Cap" real salary those first three years.

Say something like this:

19/20: $6.75M
20/21: $6.75M
21/22: $6.75M
22/23: $9.5M
23/24: $10.25M
24/25: $11.0M

That gets you to $51M for 6 years, and an $8.5M cap hit for the 6 years. That feels pretty fair to both sides to me, and in line with his closest comparable players.

I think you have to have factor in that Boeser missed a lot of games, so points/60 don't really tell the whole story.