Rube's 2019 NFL Gambling Odyssey (and NFL Preview Thread)

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If you add up all the records you have 258 total wins and 254 losses as opposed to 256 and 256.

Ah ok, I see. I debated doing a range of outcomes for the teams instead of total W/L records but thought that might be too confusing. I'm doing this more as a relationship to the betting market than I am an overall prediction of how the league will turn out this year. You'll notice I also have 7/8 of 2018's division winners repeating, but we know from history that the likelihood of that happening is very slim.

My hope down the line if I can keep track of this for several seasons is to have enough of a database to determine which stats should be weighted more heavily than others. Right now I weigh PEW differential and record in one-score games the heaviest. I think there likely needs to be other stats included such as third down conversion rate, redzone success, etc. Anything that's high variance from year to year and not necessarily based on skill.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Hockey

If you play DK we have a $10 weekly league going that Luongo usually plays in and could always use more people.

Goes for anyone else here as well.

Looks like I have to re-learn the DK format! I moved all my action over to FanDuel a couple years ago.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Ah ok, I see. I debated doing a range of outcomes for the teams instead of total W/L records but thought that might be too confusing. I'm doing this more as a relationship to the betting market than I am an overall prediction of how the league will turn out this year. You'll notice I also have 7/8 of 2018's division winners repeating, but we know from history that the likelihood of that happening is very slim.

My hope down the line if I can keep track of this for several seasons is to have enough of a database to determine which stats should be weighted more heavily than others. Right now I weigh PEW differential and record in one-score games the heaviest. I think there likely needs to be other stats included such as third down conversion rate, redzone success, etc. Anything that's high variance from year to year and not necessarily based on skill.

Yeah, there is a difference between projections vs. predictions.
Than again, history might show that it's highly unlikely that 7 of 8 teams that win Divisions will happen again, but it does not mean it won't.

So as you say over time when you get a bit more data established as benchmarks of the past, you might be able to see which factors should be weighted to more accurately project outcomes.

It's an interesting analysis, so I'll certainly watch with a bit of interest to see how it plays out.

Realistically if you project within a win on 18 of these you did bloody well.

My overall observation here is that no one team projects to be very dominating, and few teams projected to be bad. So it really does show how the more fluctuating factors can really move the needle for teams being good or bad.

[rubecube]

These are the bets I've made so far this offseason:

DAL U9 (-129)
DEN O7 (-103)
BAL O8.5 (-102)
BUF U6.5 (+140)
OAK U6 (+105)
TEN U8 (-129)
NYJ U7 (+136) - Made this one by accident
SEA O8.5 (-119)

[Erick Estrada]

I do not like the over on the Broncos at all. I also feel the under on the Raiders is too risky as the offense looks like it could be very good and enough for 2 wins over last year where they won four games with an offense starting receivers and running backs that are no longer in the league. The other picks look decent but maybe a little bullish on the Ravens as I have a feeling their opponents watched a lot of tape of the playoff game vs the Chargers.

[Iggy_12]

Im very surprised by your 10-6 record predictions for the Saints, Rams and Chiefs

I think you're low on all of those

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Iggy_12

Im very surprised by your 10-6 record predictions for the Saints, Rams and Chiefs

I think you're low on all of those

As Syl pointed out, it's a projection not a prediction. The Rams very well could be good this year but they were very lucky last year from a numbers perspective. From a subjective perspective, they have some pretty big questions regarding the interior of their OL and whether McVay can adjust to the blueprint the Patriots provided for the rest of the league.

[rubecube]

So here are the picks my new model likes the best this week, ranked in order from most confident to least confident:

CHI -3
TB +1
KC -3.5
TEN +5
DEN -1
DET -2.5
BAL -6.5
SEA -10, NE -5, HOU +7 (tied)
NYG +7.5, LAR -2, (tied)
NYJ -3, MIN -4, WAS +10, IND +6 (tied)

For comparison, my personal, subjective rankings would probably look like this:

BAL -6.5
DEN -1
NE -5
TEN +5
CHI -3
NYG +7.5
TB +1
NO -7
NYJ -3
CAR +2
WAS +10
SEA -10
MIN -4
JAX +3.5
ARI +2.5

So, for this week, I'm going to go with the top 5 picks from the new model vs. 3 of my own picks.

CHI -3
TB +1
KC -3.5
TEN +5
DEN -1

BAL -6.5
NE -5
NYG +7.5

[Weitz]

I think KC is going to lose this week and I think Titans lose by 2 touchdowns.

But I like the other picks.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I think KC is going to lose this week and I think Titans lose by 2 touchdowns.

But I like the other picks.

I'm not super confident about KC, but I'm all in on fading the Browns until that hype train slows down a bit.

[Sylvanfan]

I like the Titans to be able to keep a game closer against the Browns.
History shows that teams who spike one year, are not able to move the needle the next year. So the Browns go from winning 1 game to 7, and it seems like they are favored to win like 11 this year. Yes the roster has talent...also has some headcases. I can see them being more of a 8 win team again, and the Titans are not spectacular, but they can play that grind it out one score type of game and have been doing so for a couple years now.

Also like the Seahawks to keep 10 clear of the Bengals at home.

I would take the Bronco's in a pick em over the Raiders too.

[rubecube]

Well, a big, wet fart on the debut of this new system I'm trying but is a work in progress.

EDIT: That said, I feel like if the Bears got even average QB play, they win that game handily.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Well, a big, wet fart on the debut of this new system I'm trying but is a work in progress.

EDIT: That said, I feel like if the Bears got even average QB play, they win that game handily.

Poor QB play and over 100 yards in penalties or else they win that easily imo

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Poor QB play and over 100 yards in penalties or else they win that easily imo

Yeah, I liken it to a bad beat in poker. I'd make that same bet again and probably win it 9/10 times.

[Weitz]

Ugh. I hate gambling. Eagles allow a garbage TD to ruin my 4 pick parlay.

Ravens -6.5
CAR LAR over
Vikings -3.5

Eagle -10.5

[rubecube]

Interesting week in that I did better on my old system of picks (2-1) vs. the new system (2-3). 4-4 to start the season isn't the worst thing in world. That said, if I had picked every single game using the new system, I would have gone 9-7 based on what the lines were at kickoff yesterday. Sample size is obviously still too small to make any conclusions but interesting nonetheless.

This week, the model likes MIA +18.5, BAL -13, NYG +2, KC -7.5, HOU -8.5, and CHI -1.5 the best.

[troutman]

The trouble with making future predictions based on past performance - there is so much turnover every year with players and coaches? The Browns for example have only 9 players back from last year.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by troutman

The trouble with making future predictions based on past performance - there is so much turnover every year with players and coaches? The Browns for example have only 9 players back from last year.

And yet TEN +5.5 was probably my lock of the week behind BAL -6.5.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Yeah but every analytic alive could have told me bet Cleveland and I wouldn't do it. Cleveland getting blown out was a lock the second the media crowned their asses. No analytic can factor in "It's Cleveland".

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah but every analytic alive could have told me bet Cleveland and I wouldn't do it. Cleveland getting blown out was a lock the second the media crowned their asses. No analytic can factor in "It's Cleveland".

Oh I agree. I was betting Titans no matter what in that situation, and I might be the Jets this week, too. That line is already a point too high and will likely go up another half point by the weekend.