Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Shazam]

I won't miss that NDP caucus one bit. Bunch of idiots cloaked in fear.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by dre

Absolutely agree with you on trying to understand each other. Maybe I can start.

What would you hope to accomplish with a large PST?

First and foremost: debt reduction. Second: stability, as a stable PST would make our economy less susceptible to the swings on natural resources.

Then, depending on the success of the first two, you could bring down corporate and income tax.

I think it’s just generally wiser to tax spending over earning.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The NDP and their propaganda wing at Press Progress made the tactical error of assuming an entire month of this would cause increasing outrage rather than increasing apathy. Eventually, people just decide that the same whining over and over is boring and tune it out.

They completely overdid it too. The bozo eruptions vary between the very minor: Someone 'liked' something uncouth on social media some years ago to the more major, where Mark Smith's sermon combined with his paper on firing catholic teachers for being gay can probably serve as a proxy manifesto on where his beliefs around sexual minorities really lie. But by totally overdoing all the other stuff it makes it a lot easier for people who are not as engaged to dismiss the Smith uproar as just another component of the gutter politics campaign the NDP is waging.

They also continuously make the mistake of assuming what's shocking / 'beyond the pale' is aligned among voters. They are using the Mike Morrison types as the barometer of what's okay / not okay. That isn't necessarily where the median of Alberta voters are situated.

[Yamer]

As an NDP supporter I am thoroughly disappointed with how they have chosen to campaign. The fearmongering, the slandering...the advertisements have been incredible failures. That "My family always voted Conservative" ad is fundamentally poor rhetoric.

'Stay the course' isn't encouraging as a supporter, so I have no idea how they thought this would win them votes.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

First and foremost: debt reduction. Second: stability, as a stable PST would make our economy less susceptible to the swings on natural resources.

Then, depending on the success of the first two, you could bring down corporate and income tax.

I think it’s just generally wiser to tax spending over earning.

A proper consumption tax - like in every other province - is something long overdue in this province, if for no other reason than to provide a fair and equitable tax to bolster our revenue numbers. The lateral benefit is that is help reign in consumer spending a bit, which Albertan's have the highest consumer debt in the country.

The only downside I see is that I know many people from out-of-province (other Canadians) love shopping here because they save money on sales tax that they would otherwise have to pay in their home province (the "Alberta Advantage" as the Ontarians I know call it). But such a tax should not be designed to cater to out-of-province folks; Albertans are who matters here.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

They completely overdid it too. The bozo eruptions vary between the very minor: Someone 'liked' something uncouth on social media some years ago to the more major, where Mark Smith's sermon combined with his paper on firing catholic teachers for being gay can probably serve as a proxy manifesto on where his beliefs around sexual minorities really lie. But by totally overdoing all the other stuff it makes it a lot easier for people who are not as engaged to dismiss the Smith uproar as just another component of the gutter politics campaign the NDP is waging.

They also continuously make the mistake of assuming what's shocking / 'beyond the pale' is aligned among voters. They are using the Mike Morrison types as the barometer of what's okay / not okay. That isn't necessarily where the median of Alberta voters are situated.

And it wasn't even difficult to understand that.

The campaign strategists for the NDP should already be fired, as the whole thing has been nothing but a disaster because they totally misread what the electorate desired to be addressed.

One thing heard everywhere was no negative campaigning. They were running that absurd 30 year old footage of Kenney before the writ was officially dropped. Kind of set the tone and indicated what was to come.

Then knowing what the vote counts were in the last election. I mean just a cursory look at riding by riding from 2015 would have told them they were starting from behind regardless of performance as a governing body the last 4 years. Of the 83 ridings in Alberta, if you totalled up the WR/PC votes vs the NDP votes the NDP would have won 26 of them IIRC. So they needed to sway votes from those that didnt vote for them last time in a BIG way.

Which leads to the merger since last time. In a short period of time, the UCP became the single largest membership to a provincial political party in the history of this country. Did that not signal to the NDP "thinkers" that they needed some sort of strategy that those on the right were pretty well organized, defined, and determined to fight the incumbents? Cause again, the dippers needed to sway a bunch of those from the right to have any chance since vote splitting was eliminated in any meaningful way.

Spending...they just havent stopped spending and people didnt want it any more. Instead she rolls out 13 Billion in ADDITIONAL spending when they are borrowing money, simply to keep the lights on in the legislature. I think the daycare thing, as much as it may appeal to many, was a major mistake. It was asking for even more money to take care of peoples kids...people who made the choice to be parents. More "nanny state" kind of stuff that so many are wanting pulled back. Rightly or wrongly.

Of course there are a plethora of other issues but man did they completely misjudge on how to be re-elected and something that is more often than not as incumbents...an advantage.

Now? It appears their ONLY hope is a truly gigantic "bozo" eruption or something even worse for them to even have a sniff, beyond Edmonton.

Notley will win her seat, as will a bunch in the capital. Beyond that its looking very very bleak.

I really really hope Shannon Philips gets crushed in Lethbridge along with Ceci (almost a guarantee at this point for him). Pipe dream but I would like to see Sarah Hoffman get beat too....as i am a sewer rat.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Yamer

The fearmongering, the slandering...the advertisements have been incredible failures. That "My family always voted Conservative" ad is fundamentally poor rhetoric.

This ad is strategically poor. It's like the French building the Maginot line before WWII. It's essentially fighting the last two elections over again. The ballot box question both those times was about how long in the tooth the PC party rule had gotten and shouldn't they be replaced. Hence Redford's ads in 2012 claiming "this is not your father's PC party." That party was turfed last election in favor of the NDP and now doesn't exist. Now 4 years have passed, now what? That's where they have to fill in the blanks with something that inspires people to vote for them, not rehash old battles. When I first saw the ad within the first few seconds before he mentioned Jason Kenney I thought someone had made a mistake and accidentally brought an ad used in 2015 out of retirement.

[Resolute 14]

The "my family always voted conservative" ad is amazing. Whoever thought an ad centred around concern trolling was a good idea really needs to be looking for another line of work.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The "my family always voted conservative" ad is amazing. Whoever thought an ad centred around concern trolling was a good idea really needs to be looking for another line of work.

That. And going for the "we may have done some stupid stuff but we're not the other guy" strategy was mind numbing. What a terrible angle to take.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Alberta Election Polling:

UCP: 55%
NDP: 32%
ABP: 7%
LIB: 1%

Forum Research / April 5th / 1132 respondents / IVR / MOE 3%

Notes: This is the first public post-debate poll. Additionally, no % changes can be given as this is Forums first Alberta poll



In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1132 Alberta voters, amongst those decided and leaning more than half of Albertans (55%) say that they would support the United Conservative Party. A third (32%) say they would support the NDP and about 1 in 10 (7%) would support the Alberta Party.Toronto, April 6th - In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 1132 Alberta voters, amongst those decided and leaning more than half of Albertans (55%) say that they would support the United Conservative Party. Few say they would support either the Green Party (2%), another party (2%), or the Liberberals (1%).

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2...lection-wave-1

The Edmonton numbers don’t look good for the NDP in this poll: 49% UCP, 37% NDP. They had a fairly significant lead there, and if that’s evaporated they are in trouble.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

A proper consumption tax - like in every other province - is something long overdue in this province, if for no other reason than to provide a fair and equitable tax to bolster our revenue numbers. The lateral benefit is that is help reign in consumer spending a bit, which Albertan's have the highest consumer debt in the country.

The only downside I see is that I know many people from out-of-province (other Canadians) love shopping here because they save money on sales tax that they would otherwise have to pay in their home province (the "Alberta Advantage" as the Ontarians I know call it). But such a tax should not be designed to cater to out-of-province folks; Albertans are who matters here.

Also not having a consumption tax, perpetuates the feelings of jealousy by other provinces, who I think have for a very long time felt that Albertans have it too good.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

If you're at all numerically inclined, it's been a real difficult 4 years watching Joe Ceci go up there every-time and completely butcher fiscal updates and talk about credit rating agency downgrades. And then a week later pose for photo ops at craft breweries and talk about how that industry was part of leading the charge to economic recovery.

It completely blows my mind that he was/is finance minister of a large province in Canada.

But Ceci was actually the best they had. They never rotated him out because everybody else was even more incompetent.

$60 billion in debt was the best condition they could leave us in.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Zarley

The Edmonton numbers don’t look good for the NDP in this poll: 49% UCP, 37% NDP. They had a fairly significant lead there, and if that’s evaporated they are in trouble.

I just cant buy that Edmonton has flipped that much which kind of puts in question this entire poll.

However, every poll of every kind other than the UNIFOR poll shows UCP way out in front and in the areas that they need to get a majority.

[Ozy_Flame]

I don't believe those Edmonton numbers at all. This place is an NDP stronghold, UCP may get a couple of seats, but the overwhelming majority of the city has orange signs everywhere.

I question the results of that poll.

[transplant99]

Yet another poll today that does not bode well for anyone except the UCP.

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uplo...ril-4-2019.pdf

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

First and foremost: debt reduction. Second: stability, as a stable PST would make our economy less susceptible to the swings on natural resources.

"Stable PST." Last I knew the unemployed try not to spend money.

[corporatejay]

I took down my UCP sign but I'm still voting for them.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

"Stable PST." Last I knew the unemployed try not to spend money.

The unemployed cost governments more than they produce, making this trivially true, no matter what tax system you have. Do you have a point?

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I don't believe those Edmonton numbers at all. This place is an NDP stronghold, UCP may get a couple of seats, but the overwhelming majority of the city has orange signs everywhere.

I question the results of that poll.

Yeah it’s certainly a shock, although I read an article about Notley changing her post debate schedule to shore up support in Edmonton - so their internal polling might be showing the same.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

First and foremost: debt reduction. Second: stability, as a stable PST would make our economy less susceptible to the swings on natural resources.

Then, depending on the success of the first two, you could bring down corporate and income tax.

I think it’s just generally wiser to tax spending over earning.

There is absolutely no chance that the NDP or the UCP would put any windfall from a consumption tax towards reducing the debt. Wrong platforms, weak will and wrong leaders for that to happen.

The second point has merit, but is locked into the health of the economy as a whole, so using that as a crutch could lower the standard of living, if the government in place doesn't spend thoughtfully on infrastructure and social policies.

I would also mention that a consumption tax favours the rich, as the money spent by the poor and middle class remain somewhat constant to reach the necessities of life. The rich however can simply bank money and either spend in another jurisdiction, or sit on it. (You would have to look at it as spending as a percentage of income, rather than total money spent)