Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[dino7c]

Why does Edmonton love the NDP so much? because they are both no good?

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Which ones? (Genuinely curious). I’ve only seen polls showing the UCP comfortably in the lead...

I will lose some bets at work if they lose. Teach me to prognosticate I suppose...

EKOS recently had the UCP only leading 46-42.

However the way it was presented on Twitter it looked like it was AB wide.

The herald mentioned that poll today and said was only in CGY.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Why does Edmonton love the NDP so much? because they are both no good?

Oilers/NDP both think lottery wins are the keys to success?

[the_only_turek_fan]

[the_only_turek_fan]

That 46-42 number is Alberta wide.

[AltaGuy]

I think the UCP might just lose this thing if Notley shows up Kenney at the debate.

[GGG]

While that poll may be done correctly it certainly is an outlier. It was in the field from Mar 15-26 which is a really long time to collect a sample of 1000. Anything longer than a week seems weird to me.

Compare the polling done by other organizations

Legir 45-37-9
Main Street 51-37-4
Angus 56-31-5
IPsos 52-35-6
ThinkHQ 49-38-8

Now since the EKOS poll has 11 days in the field only about half of that sample would be after the latest rounds of the other poll so it’s unlikely to be able to pick up recent significant movement. The EKOS poll is also funded by a partisan group and therefore could be more suspect. More than likely the EKOS poll is the outlier rather than the other 5 having a consistent methodology error or a 5 point positive swing for the NDP and 5 point negative swing to the PCs.

Polls referenced from CBCs poll tracker

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by GGG

While that poll may be done correctly it certainly is an outlier. It was in the field from Mar 15-26 which is a really long time to collect a sample of 1000. Anything longer than a week seems weird to me.

Compare the polling done by other organizations

Legir 45-37-9
Main Street 51-37-4
Angus 56-31-5
IPsos 52-35-6
ThinkHQ 49-38-8

Now since the EKOS poll has 11 days in the field only about half of that sample would be after the latest rounds of the other poll so it’s unlikely to be able to pick up recent significant movement. The EKOS poll is also funded by a partisan group and therefore could be more suspect. More than likely the EKOS poll is the outlier rather than the other 5 having a consistent methodology error or a 5 point positive swing for the NDP and 5 point negative swing to the PCs.

Polls referenced from CBCs poll tracker

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elec...acker/alberta/

Yeah I’m less worried about the source but when you have one poll that gives you a result that is way off of the others it does suggest an outlier. In a way that is likelier than 4 other pollsters all erring in the same direction.

Also, I agree—that is a long time in the field. Particularly if we don’t know how much of their sample was collected each day (not sure if they disclosed that?).

[peter12]

The grim electoral math is working its inevitable path forward for the UCP.


Notley's NDP scored 40% of the vote, they are pretty much polling the same now. A united right is pretty tough to beat in Alberta.

[iggy_oi]

Welcome back peter12

[Senator Clay Davis]

Still can't envision a scenario where the NDP wins the election. Still think a UCP minority proped up by the AP is maybe possible, but Kenney probably has to botch the debate and since he basically just has to avoid screwing up, and he's a seasoned political vet, just cannot see it.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Still can't envision a scenario where the NDP wins the election. Still think a UCP minority proped up by the AP is possible, but Kenney probably has to botch the debate and since he basically just has to avoid screwing up, and he's a seasoned political vet, just cannot see it.

Yeah, and he's already made some pretty big gaffes with respect to some of his candidates, potential RCMP investigation, being an opportunist ****, etc... He's got a ton of rope to hang himself and he probably knows it.



I feel bad for Notley. I honestly think that she is the most realistic of all the potential leaders. She's got grit, intelligence, and honestly, represents the best way for Alberta as a culture. Plus she's a real federalist and doesn't play populist card comfortably, which in this day, is pretty invaluable

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Still can't envision a scenario where the NDP wins the election. Still think a UCP minority proped up by the AP is maybe possible, but Kenney probably has to botch the debate and since he basically just has to avoid screwing up, and he's a seasoned political vet, just cannot see it.

If Kenney can’t win a majority he should get out the business of politics.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

I think the UCP might just lose this thing if Notley shows up Kenney at the debate.

If the UCP loses they have nobody to blame but themselves. Election should be a lay up but they're tripping over every coffee table in the room

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

If Kenney can’t win a majority he should get out the business of politics.

To be honest I don’t think he’d have much of a choice

[Rando]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

If Kenney can’t win a majority he should get out the business of politics.

Does he have experience doing anything else?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Rando

Does he have experience doing anything else?

Being a rotten dude to gay men in San Francisco?

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

If Kenney can’t win a majority he should get out the business of politics.

He's such a POS though I think politics is the only suitable career.

Should just go join the FCP

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

Yeah I’m less worried about the source but when you have one poll that gives you a result that is way off of the others it does suggest an outlier. In a way that is likelier than 4 other pollsters all erring in the same direction.

Also, I agree—that is a long time in the field. Particularly if we don’t know how much of their sample was collected each day (not sure if they disclosed that?).

As mentioned previously the EKOS poll is hot garbage that was paid for (and designed) by huge union unifor and their NDP alliance. It should not be taken seriously, or at least with a whole brick of salt.

Some better polls expected this week.

[Rando]

Originally Posted by peter12

Being a rotten dude to gay men in San Francisco?

hahaha !