Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Toonage

So just teams below Carolina in the current standings now who tried to claim him last time.

Teams below Carolina in the waiver priority list who tried to claim him, yes. IOW, teams that were above the Canes in the standings when McElhinney was claimed.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Robbob

That would be quite the twist if Calgary tried to put a claim on him earlier, but lost out on priority.

If that is the case, and Carolina knows Calgary had a claim, they probably won't waive him unless they want to get rid of the contract. I wonder if waiver claims for players are known to GMs after the fact.

Tre
"We'll offer you a 2nd for McE"

Waddell
"Whooo! Really could use a win against you guys"

*Calgary claims McE from Carolina*

Waddell
"..."

Tre

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

December
Smith: 4-1-0, .899
Rittich: 4-2-2, .925

January
Smith: 3-1-0, .888
Rittich: 6-0-1, .911

So...including the Caps loss, Smith may have 'cost' us 6 points since Dec. 1, 2018?

Originally Posted by Itse

1 more goal per 10 games?

If Smith had faced the same 662 shots as Domingue, with the same 0.889 sv%, he would have let in 73 goals in comparison to Dominques 62 goals. That's 11 more goals in those 21GP, or an extra goal against every other game.

Switch Dominque and Smith around, keep the same GP, sv% and shots against, and we'd go from +45 to +57 goal differential, while TB goes from +59 to +48.

In other words, most likely we'd be ahead of them.

Backups make a huge difference over the season.

You can't call GAA a garbage stat across teams and use SV% the gold standard at the same time. Not all shots are created equal. As with anything, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Old wives tale.

https://www.fearthefin.com/2013/10/3...rnout-playoffs

Number of games played in regular season doesn’t appear to have a statistically significant impact on playoff performance.

This might have been an interesting analysis if he broke it down by round. There are generally more games played in round 1 than rounds 2-4 combined. One wouldn't expect much difference in performance from March 15 to April 15. But May 15 or June 1 could be a very different story.

They don't award the cup based on SV%. As you rightly state, goalies are just one big piece of the puzzle. The difference may come down to 2-3 instances in May and June where the margins between save and goal are super slim. The last few decades indicate that goalies starting less than 62 reg season games have been much more likely to come up with that save.

Since 2004, there are 2 instances of cup winning goalies starting more than 57 games: Quick 68, Fleury 61. (Brodeur did it with 73 a few years earlier, too).

[Jordan!]

Can we take Smitty back if The Flames retain salary when we're already eating some of his salary? lol

We're dropping like flies here

[Itse]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

You can't call GAA a garbage stat across teams and use SV% the gold standard at the same time. Not all shots are created equal. As with anything, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Fair enough.

I do think SV% is way better stat, but obviously there's no perfect stat or a perfect way of predicting how a different goalie would do under the same circumstances.

I still think if we switch backups, we lead the league and not TB. Or at the very least it'd be really close, not a 10 point difference.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Itse

Fair enough.

I do think SV% is way better stat, but obviously there's no perfect stat or a perfect way of predicting how a different goalie would do under the same circumstances.

I still think if we switch backups, we lead the league and not TB. Or at the very least it'd be really close, not a 10 point difference.

Domingue has not been very good.
Now cherry pick Halak as backup and I will give you that.

[TheRealPepman]

I read somewhere earlier in the season that a healthy/consistently wonderful Smith's goaltending would not mesh well in Peters' system. Obviously his struggles this year are more of a mental and physical thing, but would a very good Smith under Peters also be equally awful to the Smith we know now?

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Domingue has not been very good.

Now cherry pick Halak as backup and I will give you that.

What’s wrong with Domingue’s performance? His sv% is almost 2% higher than Smith and he singlehandedly stole a game against the Flames. Domingue would be a great back up with the Flames.



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[Classic_Sniper]

Smith was decent tonight, but for what he’s paid and the standards we now have as a team. Smith just isn’t going to cut it. His game log is filled with 3, 4, 5 goals allowed on a regular basis, his sv% is amongst the worst in the league and his record just isn’t up to par.

Smith: 14-11-1
Rittich: 20-4-4

If this was the casino, you’d go with Rittich all day and everyday. It’s not crazy to think this team could be #1 in the NHL with a better goaltender than Smith. I actually can’t believe he’s played as many games as he had this season. On any other team he might be on the waiver wire.



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[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Smith was decent tonight, but for what he’s paid and the standards we now have as a team. Smith just isn’t going to cut it. His game log is filled with 3, 4, 5 goals allowed on a regular basis, his sv% is amongst the worst in the league and his record just isn’t up to par.

This team has been defined by #### goaltending since Kipper retired.

Don't hang that on Smith and be thankful we have Rittich (who laid an egg tonight).

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

This might have been an interesting analysis if he broke it down by round. There are generally more games played in round 1 than rounds 2-4 combined. One wouldn't expect much difference in performance from March 15 to April 15. But May 15 or June 1 could be a very different story.

They don't award the cup based on SV%. As you rightly state, goalies are just one big piece of the puzzle. The difference may come down to 2-3 instances in May and June where the margins between save and goal are super slim. The last few decades indicate that goalies starting less than 62 reg season games have been much more likely to come up with that save.

Since 2004, there are 2 instances of cup winning goalies starting more than 57 games: Quick 68, Fleury 61. (Brodeur did it with 73 a few years earlier, too).

Well, I think it is interesting, and could be more interesting.

Relying on stats of cup winning goalies since 2004 gives you, what, 13 data points?

Also, need I remind you that ... it was in! :-)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

...Also, need I remind you that ... it was in! :-)

He played 38 games that year.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

He played 38 games that year.

Haha, dammit!

[Geeoff]

Galaxy brain play: use your backup as your starter and your starter as your backup!

[FanIn80]

Smith, Bennett, 1st
Bobrovsky, Panarin, Stanley Cup

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Smith, Bennett, 1st
Bobrovsky, Panarin, Stanley Cup

Remove one of BoBo or Panarin (and the Stanley Cup) and you might have something here.

And the fact is, the best team in the NHL likely has about a 12% chance of winning the Cup after making the playoffs.

That's simply the parity and the randomness on a game by game basis.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

This team has been defined by #### goaltending since Kipper retired.



Don't hang that on Smith and be thankful we have Rittich (who laid an egg tonight).

I don’t hang that game on Smith, he was decent. But we’re still talking about a goaltender who can’t seem to allow less than 3 goals unless it’s too bottom feeder/low scoring teams.

He’s unreliable. The team can’t score 4, 5, 6 goals every game to undue his poor goaltending. There’s a reason why his win loss ratio is miles behind Rittich.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I don’t hang that game on Smith, he was decent. But we’re still talking about a goaltender who can’t seem to allow less than 3 goals unless it’s too bottom feeder/low scoring teams.

He’s unreliable. The team can’t score 4, 5, 6 goals every game to undue his poor goaltending. There’s a reason why his win loss ratio is miles behind Rittich.

Don't disagree that he's not consistent. But he did beat Nashville 3-0 and 5-2. Beat Boston 5-2. Beat Toronto 3-1. Lost to the Sharks but only allowed 2 (one ENG).

Also had 2 or less against some others like LA, Minnie, Chicago, but they were bottom feeders (of course, that's mostly what he gets).

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Don't disagree that he's not consistent. But he did beat Nashville 3-0 and 5-2. Beat Boston 5-2. Beat Toronto 3-1. Lost to the Sharks but only allowed 2 (one ENG).



Also had 2 or less against some others like LA, Minnie, Chicago, but they were bottom feeders (of course, that's mostly what he gets).

Naturally he’s not going to lose to every good team. But in the last couple months, his game logs are littered with 3, 4, 5 goals allowed. He allowed only 1 to Arizona which is a team he’s seemingly mastered. I’m still seeing too many leaky goals and for his quality of competition and the team he’s playing for, the record isn’t good enough nor are his numbers up to standard IMO.



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[-TC-]

Rhett isn't confident the tandem is ready for the playoffs... he actually made a good point in saying the last time Rittich faced real pressure, he didn't handle it well...and Smith is done, he just is.

I think a goalie is priority one at this point.