Lazar: "It's become obvious to me that I'm an NHL player"

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Here is my point:

If you think the trajectory of Lindholm and Lazar have anything to do with one another, youre probably an idiot.

Idiotic #### shouldn't always need a countervailing point. Some things are stupid right on their surface.

Calling others idiots, because you can't - or simply refuse to - understand their argument, only makes you look like the fool.

You are, IMO, the worst poster on this sight, because you are very capable of making intelligent and insightful contributions - and regularly do. But more often than not unfortunately, you prefer moronic, belligerent, and closed-minded drivel like this.

These types of posts don't make you look clever. They don't impress anyone. And they don't add to the conversation. They simply make you look like an ass.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Except he didn't say that.

Read Corsi's post again. Yeah most likely Lazar is not going to turn into Frolik, Lindholm, Chris Clark or any other exceptions out there IMO.

Uhhh yeah he pretty much did. Did you miss the “Upside? Still?” Or the “will never be more than a replacement player”? CHL was certainly implying that he will not improve or be anything more than he is.

Why are you calling those guys exceptions? The exceptions are guys who jump into the nhl early and dominate right away like Tkachuk and Monahan. The vast majority of NHLers take years to develop and most of them take steps forwards and backwards along the way. Lazar isn’t likely to be a finished product yet because of how young he is. A lot of NHLers weren’t even in the NHL yet at his current age.

Its crazy to me that some people think 23 year olds are finished improving. NHL history says most players still improve quite a bit after that age.

[David Struch]

If the Flames want to play a heavier game in the playoffs I could see Lazar slotting in over guys such as Mangiapane and Dube, plus, Frolik's spot in the line-up may soon need filling also.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Czarnik
Bennett - Jankowski - Neal
Hathaway - Ryan - Lazar

[edn88]

I don’t know if Lazar will be anything more than a great AHL player, but isn’t it better that he is doing well down in the AHL vs doing poorly. Isn’t it better that he has confidence in himself? Isn’t it better that rather than sulk he went to the AHL with a purpose and feels like he can come back. Isn’t it better that he is an asset for the Flames? How can you not want him to be able to make a triumphant return to the NHL? I have not idea how likely it is, but it is not impossible for him to come back and be productive. I think people who dislike Lazar are terminally negative people who cannot handle how positive he is.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Uhhh yeah he pretty much did. Did you miss the “Upside? Still?” Or the “will never be more than a replacement player”? CHL was certainly implying that he will not improve or be anything more than he is.

Why are you calling those guys exceptions? The exceptions are guys who jump into the nhl early and dominate right away like Tkachuk and Monahan. The vast majority of NHLers take years to develop and most of them take steps forwards and backwards along the way. Lazar isn’t likely to be a finished product yet because of how young he is. A lot of NHLers weren’t even in the NHL yet at his current age.

Its crazy to me that some people think 23 year olds are finished improving. NHL history says most players still improve quite a bit after that age.

Come on man. You are exaggerating other people's positions to make an argument. I didn't say Lazar was finished improving. Corsi said specifically he "most likely" was not going to make it.

Lazar turns 24 in less than a month. You know what happens to MOST 24 year olds playing in the AHL? They don't become impact NHLers. I am happy to provide examples if needed.

There are literally dozens of posts saying Lazar might still be an exception to this, even if unlikely. Yet you remain outraged?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by edn88

I don’t know if Lazar will be anything more than a great AHL player, but isn’t it better that he is doing well down in the AHL vs doing poorly. Isn’t it better that he has confidence in himself? Isn’t it better that rather than sulk he went to the AHL with a purpose and feels like he can come back. Isn’t it better that he is an asset for the Flames? How can you not want him to be able to make a triumphant return to the NHL? I have not idea how likely it is, but it is not impossible for him to come back and be productive. I think people who dislike Lazar are terminally negative people who cannot handle how positive he is.

I don't think anyone is upset that he's having a good season or that he's feeling confident about that. The primary debate is what that means for his future with the Flames and if and when he should receive another opportunity.
No one is unhappy he is doing well.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by ST20

I like Lazar but the two aren't really comparable at all. Lindholm averages about 18 mins a year for time on ice while Lazar's average is down around 10 or so. Not only does this mean that Lindholm has shown more promise during his playing time but it also means that he's had almost twice the time to develop playing actual games.

It was the right move for Lazar to go down to the AHL to get real minutes and I hope he does well.

Player development is funny. Sometimes good players can get drafted into the wrong situation and have their career ruins while other players who didn't show as much promise get put into good situations and flourish.

Great post!

[Calgary4LIfe]

Lazar didn't have the best season last year, but I thought he was really improving on the defensive side of the puck, as well as becoming a really solid forechecker. I do think that there is some upside to him. It isn't like he is too old, or that he has been blessed with bucket loads of solid minutes so that he can work on his offensive game.



Keep him in the AHL a while longer. Just let him really find his game again, and the Flames might just have a solid player on their hands. He is fast, he is physical, he is defensively responsible and he is a total team guy. If he is able to just improve his offensive game a bit to the point where he can be a decent reliable depth scorer (certainly not out of the question), he can be a valuable player for the Flames. Who really knows what his offensive upside REALLY is in light of how he has been rushed and deployed in the NHL thus far. I wouldn't bet against him.

[FlamesAddiction]

Unless something drastic happens, I think the Flames will probably keep him in the AHL until the standings are locked. Is he actually improving his skills there, or is it just that his skills work better in the AHL? Is he a Keith Aucoin or Cory Locke?

It's great that playing at a lower level has given him confidence, but if they give him another chance and he still can't put it together in the NHL, that will probably be a huge confidence breaker.

Obviously I am not a professional scout or coach, but it's one thing to have the skills to play in the minor leagues and not have those translate to the NHL, but another to go to the AHL and actually start learning or improving skills. It seems less likely as players get older. Only the Flames coaches and scouts really know the reason he is thriving in the AHL.

I don't like the Chris Clark example because it's not like he was sent to the AHL to find his game after being in the NHL of 250 games. He was already a useful NHL player when he had his stats increase for a couple of seasons (while playing on a very talented line).

I would be more curious to know if there are examples of players that played a substantial number of games in the NHL, then spend their a year in the AHL at 23/24, only to come back to the NHL and have a solid career. I suppose it is possible, but I am not betting on him.

[Freddy]

I think Lazar would be in the rotation with Dube, Mangiapane, Quine, etc this season if he didn’t have to be put on waivers every time he was sent down to Stockton. A team such as the Oilers could put in a claim and he’d no longer be an asset for the organization. He has acquitted himself well this year in the AHL and will be a black ace for the Flames come playoff time. Depending on how deep they go and injuries deplete the roster I could see Lazar dress and earn another NHL gig if he brings some finish to his uptempo style. He’s a bubble NHL player, but I don’t think his opportunities are over yet.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I would be more curious to know if there are examples of players that played a substantial number of games in the NHL, then spend their a year in the AHL at 23/24, only to come back to the NHL and have a solid career. I suppose it is possible, but I am not betting on him.

There's very few identical examples but still interesting to look at a variety of players and how long they took in the minors or them making the NHL and then being sent back to the minors the next year.

Jarret Stoll played out his regularly junior eligibility.
First year pro he spent mostly in the minors and scored 54 points in 76 games.
Next year he made the NHL and scored 21 points in 68 games.
The year after that he was back in the minors and scored 38 points in 66 games.
The year after that back in the NHL with 68 points in 82 games.

Interesting that his NHL production in his sophomore season was much better than his AHL production the year before.

Vermettte from the same year had a very similar path, played out his junior eligibility.
Scored 62 points in 80 games in the AHL.
Made the NHL in his 2nd pro year and scored 14 points in 57 games.
Back in the AHL for the year after that with 73 points in 78 games.
Then back in the NHL for 33 points in 82 games.

Colby Armstrong played out his junior eligibility.
Then spent the next 3.5 seasons in the minors.
He made the NHL finally in his 23 year old season.

Derek Roy played out his junior eligibility.
First pro year he split between the AHL and NHL. Was a PPG player in the AHL and score 19 points in 49 NHL games.
Next year he played entirely in the AHL and scored 61 points in 67 games.
Then he finally made the NHL full time.

Jason Pominville played out his junior eligibility.
He then spent the next 3.25 years in the minors before making the NHL full time at age 23.

Scotty Upshall played 2.25 years in the minors after playing out his junior eligibility.

PM Bouchard played 2 years in the NHL scoring 20 and 22 points.
He then was sent to the minors and scored 54 points in 67 games.
He then jumped back to the NHL and scored 59 points in 80 games.

Boyd Gordon split his first year pro between the NHL (6 points in 43 games) and AHL (22 points in 43 games.)
He then spent the entire next year in the minors scoring 39 points in 80 games. He then split his 3rd pro year between the AHL (38 points in 58 games) and NHL (1 point in 25 games.)
He then made the NHL full time.

Jumping ahead to look at a home example Paul Byron played 3 seasons in the AHL over his first 4 pro years. He finally really broke out in the NHL at age 27 it looks like.

That's just me looking at a 3 year stretch of drafts (+ the Byron example.) What does this tell us?

Most players who aren't super high picks usually play out junior and spend 2-3 years in the minors. Some players make the NHL and then still get assigned to the minors later. It generally seems to help them and their NHL offensive totals are much higher after the stretch in the AHL.

Lazar probably should've played out his junior time. He probably should've spent 2 years in the minors and only be making the NHL now. In the meantime he also lost a good chunk of one year to mono. Anyways I think a lot of the above are good examples to show how long it takes the non-elite guys to develop into solid NHLers. Lazar is basically right on track compared to a lot of these guys except he was rushed and he had a somewhat lost season due to mono.

I mean I could go through another 5-7 years and find endless examples of how this is the more typical development cycle (kids not breaking out until 23/24ish or later.) But I'm not sure a longer post will help. I'm sure you can do the same search on hockeydb.com by looking through the draft years and finding forwards drafted in the mid 1st or 2nd rounds.

The fact is a lot of NHLers don't make the NHL full time until 23/24. And a lot of them don't have their big breakout year until even later. These aren't the exceptions, this is the norm for non-elite players.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

There's very few identical examples but still interesting to look at a variety of players and how long they took in the minors or them making the NHL and then being sent back to the minors the next year.

Jarret Stoll played out his regularly junior eligibility.
First year pro he spent mostly in the minors and scored 54 points in 76 games.
Next year he made the NHL and scored 21 points in 68 games.
The year after that he was back in the minors and scored 38 points in 66 games.
The year after that back in the NHL with 68 points in 82 games.

Interesting that his NHL production in his sophomore season was much better than his AHL production the year before.

Vermettte from the same year had a very similar path, played out his junior eligibility.
Scored 62 points in 80 games in the AHL.
Made the NHL in his 2nd pro year and scored 14 points in 57 games.
Back in the AHL for the year after that with 73 points in 78 games.
Then back in the NHL for 33 points in 82 games.

Colby Armstrong played out his junior eligibility.
Then spent the next 3.5 seasons in the minors.
He made the NHL finally in his 23 year old season.

Derek Roy played out his junior eligibility.
First pro year he split between the AHL and NHL. Was a PPG player in the AHL and score 19 points in 49 NHL games.
Next year he played entirely in the AHL and scored 61 points in 67 games.
Then he finally made the NHL full time.

Jason Pominville played out his junior eligibility.
He then spent the next 3.25 years in the minors before making the NHL full time at age 23.

Scotty Upshall played 2.25 years in the minors after playing out his junior eligibility.

PM Bouchard played 2 years in the NHL scoring 20 and 22 points.
He then was sent to the minors and scored 54 points in 67 games.
He then jumped back to the NHL and scored 59 points in 80 games.

Boyd Gordon split his first year pro between the NHL (6 points in 43 games) and AHL (22 points in 43 games.)
He then spent the entire next year in the minors scoring 39 points in 80 games. He then split his 3rd pro year between the AHL (38 points in 58 games) and NHL (1 point in 25 games.)
He then made the NHL full time.

Jumping ahead to look at a home example Paul Byron played 3 seasons in the AHL over his first 4 pro years. He finally really broke out in the NHL at age 27 it looks like.

That's just me looking at a 3 year stretch of drafts (+ the Byron example.) What does this tell us?

Most players who aren't super high picks usually play out junior and spend 2-3 years in the minors. Some players make the NHL and then still get assigned to the minors later. It generally seems to help them and their NHL offensive totals are much higher after the stretch in the AHL.

Lazar probably should've played out his junior time. He probably should've spent 2 years in the minors and only be making the NHL now. In the meantime he also lost a good chunk of one year to mono. Anyways I think a lot of the above are good examples to show how long it takes the non-elite guys to develop into solid NHLers. Lazar is basically right on track compared to a lot of these guys except he was rushed and he had a somewhat lost season due to mono.

I mean I could go through another 5-7 years and find endless examples of how this is the more typical development cycle (kids not breaking out until 23/24ish or later.) But I'm not sure a longer post will help. I'm sure you can do the same search on hockeydb.com by looking through the draft years and finding forwards drafted in the mid 1st or 2nd rounds.

The fact is a lot of NHLers don't make the NHL full time until 23/24. And a lot of them don't have their big breakout year until even later. These aren't the exceptions, this is the norm for non-elite players.

This post is awesome.

[Flash Walken]

All those guys spent a year in the AHL because of the lost season to the hockey lockout you goofus.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

lol

[browna]

Originally Posted by 868904

For every season that Curtis Lazar has played in the NHL, Dave Cameron has been one of his coaches.

Maybe we should see how he is when Cameron isn't on the bench.

Sure, but he’s a Flames player in the first place in large part because Cameron was here and could vouch for him. No other team was, or has been busting down the door to get him on their team the last almost 2.5 seasons and he’s spent half a season in the AHL. He’s got one or two NHL shots left.
He’d have to supplant Hathaway and John is playing excellent in his role this year.

[PugnaciousIntern]

https://calgarysun.com/sports/hockey...l-star-classic

It was just like, ‘Wow, I’m an all-star in a professional hockey league.’ That’s a pretty cool accomplishment, something I never thought I would achieve.

Good for him. Also, great for the team that we have forwards like Lazar, Mangiapane, Phillips, Quine, Foo, Dube, and Lomberg (among others) hanging back in the AHL to develop. Even Kylington, and now Valimaki, will be spending time in the AHL.

You can bet that they'll be much better for it next year than if there was no depth in the NHL and they had rode the pine on the Flames all season. It's that long-term investment in depth, not just for the option of calling up the best of a decent list of 'replacement-level' players, but ensuring that they continue to improve for later in the season and the coming seasons.

Essentially, the opposite of the Oilers.

[combustiblefuel]

The Sens rushed him
And Mono really killed his early development.

[Torchdemall]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

All those guys spent a year in the AHL because of the lost season to the hockey lockout you goofus.

Well for a goofus he's being a heck of a lot more articulate and bringing a bunch of thought and information to his posts then you are... so what does that make you? A simpleton?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

All those guys spent a year in the AHL because of the lost season to the hockey lockout you goofus.

Yeah, I meant players who played 2-3 seasons in the NHL before actually being cut from the team and demoted to find their game in the AHL. Not players that played one season or less before going to the AHL because of the lockout.

If Lazar makes it back to the NHL as a full time player, I get the sense that he will be the exception to the rule and it won't represent a normal trajectory. I am not saying he can't do it, but I don't think the odds are in his favour.

It's like the old saying that the easiest way to become a millionaire is to start off as a billionaire. The easiest way to become a great AHL player is probably to start off as an NHL player. The backwards movement is a lot easier than the forward movement.

I do expect he will get one more shot in the NHL. Maybe not with the Flames, but maybe with another team. There was some speculation that the Oilers would like to acquire him. As much as I hate to say it, that might be a good opportunity for him as it is one of the only NHL rosters that he is almost certainly an upgrade of some of the current players. If he stays with the Flames, I would think he would make a good black ace for the playoffs though. At the very least, he has NHL experience and could fill in on the 4th line if there are injuries.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Come on man. You are exaggerating other people's positions to make an argument. I didn't say Lazar was finished improving. Corsi said specifically he "most likely" was not going to make it.

Exactly. You just have to look at what appears to be the most likely outcome based on the careers of similar players in the past. Not a ton of guys get into the NHL at an early age, struggle to produce, bounce back and forth to the AHL and then after they turn 24 become high-end NHL players. It's therefore pretty likely that Lazar won't do that either. But no one is saying there's no exception to that rule. There are exceptions to just about every rule. The problem is that if you bet on your guy being the exception, most of the time you're going to make a bad decision.