[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[savardandjokinen]

Yeah I wouldn’t mind them trying Tkachuk-Jankowski-Neal as the 2nd line for now and then Bennett-Ryan-Someone as the shutdown for now. Frolik and Backlund back will help a lot

[ResAlien]

Our top line may be the best line in hockey and we’ve finally found the perfect complimentary winger for it

“Sweet, break it up and move people out of position!”

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Obviously it’s really tough to break up that first line when the chemistry is clicking so well. But I was definitely in the camp for Gaudreau-Monahan-Neal in the offseason due to this reasoning. And even though Neal was playing on lower lines previously, when he was paired with an elite playmaker (Malkin) he did his most damage, scoring 40+ goals that season.

It’s fantastic that the depth scoring is kicking in this season, and part of the reason why we’re one of the highest scoring teams in the league this year. But that top line still accounts for a huge chunk of the offense. With Backlund and Frolik both out for the near future I think you have to do a bit of experimentation to spread the offense out, particularly if the 1st line with Lindholm sees a lot of shutdown matchups.

These were the two scoring lines I had pencilled up a few months back in this thread. I’d really like to see them attempted.

Gaudreau – Monahan – Neal
Tkachuk – Lindholm - Bennett

The bolded part is not really true.

Our top 4 forwards (basically the forwards on the first power play unit) are tied with Colorado for the most goals of any 4 forwards in the NHL.

The rest of the forwards are tied for 11th in depth scoring amongst forwards. 20% of the secondary scoring comes from Frolik. Tampa actually has a balanced lineup, with 52 goals coming from forwards outside of the top 4 and 57 goals coming from the top 4. For the Flames that split is 59 goals from the top 4 and 35 goals from the rest of the forwards.

I do not think I would take Lindholm off of the top line under really any circumstance. Anytime I have seen Neal with Johnny and Monahan after penalty kills the line has never created a scoring chance that I can remember. I think those lines would result in two mediocre scoring lines as opposed to one elite scoring line and a below average second scoring line. It has also been years since Neal was on the top line on his team. I think those days have justifiably passed him by.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The team is first in the division in December for the first time I can remember in a long time and first in the Conference in December for the first time ever I can remember and here we are on page 52 of a thread for James Neal who's less than half a season into a five year contract. It seems like no matter how successful the team gets nothing trumps a thread regarding the current whipping boy.

The dumping on Neal started on page 38, the rest was regarding the signing itself in the summer. So really only 15ish pages.

Pretty warranted for a highly disappointing player and potentially disastrous contract. Personally I think he’s actually been worse than Brouwer’s year 1 of his deal. If he doesn’t figure it out by the end of the season and through the playoffs, then I guarantee you’ve seen nothing yet. This is child’s play.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

The dumping on Neal started on page 38, the rest was regarding the signing itself in the summer. So really only 15ish pages.

Pretty warranted for a highly disappointing player and potentially disastrous contract. Personally I think he’s actually been worse than Brouwer’s year 1 of his deal. If he doesn’t figure it out by the end of the season and through the playoffs, then I guarantee you’ve seen nothing yet. This is child’s play.

This thread is a top thread here for weeks. What haven't we seen? Multiple threads? They will all get merged into this one. It's just sad that with all the good things going on with this team that this is the most popular topic. It just goes to show fans aren't happy unless they are unhappy about something.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This thread is a top thread here for weeks. What haven't we seen? Multiple threads? They will all get merged into this one. It's just sad that with all the good things going on with this team that this is the most popular topic. It just goes to show fans aren't happy unless they are unhappy about something.

Overreact much? Other than the Oiler game threads, this is the only "negative" thread on the first page.


But I guess the 5.75 million dollar winger with 6 points in 31 games gets a pass because the rest of the team is playing well.

[CanadaMatt]

Originally Posted by Ped

Overreact much? Other than the Oiler game threads, this is the only "negative" thread on the first page.


But I guess the 5.75 million dollar winger with 6 points in 31 games gets a pass because the rest of the team is playing well.

His game last night was disgraceful. Even worse considering he essentially took the Saturday night game off and should have been well rested!

Press box for a game or two please.

[Badgers Nose]

I won't be surprised if he cracks 20 again this year. As the games become more important I'm optimistic he will find his mojo.

Either way, we are stuck with him so I choose to hope for the best.

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This thread is a top thread here for weeks. What haven't we seen? Multiple threads? They will all get merged into this one. It's just sad that with all the good things going on with this team that this is the most popular topic. It just goes to show fans aren't happy unless they are unhappy about something.

How dare people come into a thread about James Neal and discuss James Neal's performance. What kind of forum allows that sort of lunacy.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This thread is a top thread here for weeks. What haven't we seen? Multiple threads? They will all get merged into this one. It's just sad that with all the good things going on with this team that this is the most popular topic. It just goes to show fans aren't happy unless they are unhappy about something.

It’d be a pretty boring forum if it was just all happy comments about how perfect everything is with the team. That’s the great thing about forums, people can decide what threads they want to participate in. Things are great with the team, but that doesn’t mean we can’t be concerned about troublespots on the team and I can almost guarantee that similar thoughts and conversations are being had with the Flames’ braintrust as well.

Personally I think it’s fair game to discuss the performance bottom 6 which includes James Neal because it’s part of the reason that did the team in last season and we’re definitely seeing a lot of parallels right now.

[calgarywinning]

I think the question is when are we going to get the FA that actually comes in and delivers, regardless.

I'm optimistic and hope Neal can start to find his groove. It's not like we aren't used to this circumstance in Calgary. The problem is the long line of successive FA that come in and just bomb here. I believe, in order to get anywhere near a cup run, we need to get some good fortune in performance from our FA's.

[Sutter_in_law]

Originally Posted by redforever

Nice but that is not what he is being paid $5.7 million a year for. Pretty well all the Flames are involved in community work around Calgary. There is nothing special about Neal doing so.

Originally Posted by redforever

Hamonic as a new guy did the same thing last year. Neal doing so is nothing special.

Wow. Your posts are just all sorts of garbage

Headline: Local janitor donates his only day off volunteering at the children’s hospital

Redforever: “that’s great and all, but he’s getting paid to mop floors and he can’t even do that properly. Besides lots of people volunteer. Dude should concentrate on his mopping skills.”


Smh

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

...I do not think I would take Lindholm off of the top line under really any circumstance. Anytime I have seen Neal with Johnny and Monahan after penalty kills the line has never created a scoring chance that I can remember. I think those lines would result in two mediocre scoring lines as opposed to one elite scoring line and a below average second scoring line. It has also been years since Neal was on the top line on his team. I think those days have justifiably passed him by.

I think Neal plays in the top six as an injury replacement because he is probably the Flames best option for a scoring line without disrupting the line balance too much. But I am confused by this assertion in your post. You yourself pointed out in this same post that the Flames secondary scoring is sctually above average:

Our top 4 forwards (basically the forwards on the first power play unit) are tied with Colorado for the most goals of any 4 forwards in the NHL.

The rest of the forwards are tied for 11th in depth scoring amongst forwards.

I get that everyone wants more scoring, but this is just simply not an issue right now. The Flames have a spectacular top line, and also manage to get good production from their depth players comparatively speaking. This looks like a recipe for success to me.




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[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think Neal plays in the top six as an injury replacement because he is probably the Flames best option for a scoring line without disrupting the line balance too much. But I am confused by this assertion in your post. You yourself pointed out in this same post that the Flames secondary scoring is sctually above average:

I get that everyone wants more scoring, but this is just simply not an issue right now. The Flames have a spectacular top line, and also manage to get good production from their depth players comparatively speaking. This looks like a recipe for success to me.
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There's no guarantee they will continue scoring at the current pace. If they dip a little, which is more likely than not, you need your $5.75MM player to chip in. It's worrying that he looks like he can't score to save his life. I hope it's just a case of SamBennett-itis and he's able to shake that off before Christmas.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

There's no guarantee they will continue scoring at the current pace. If they dip a little, which is more likely than not, you need your $5.75MM player to chip in. It's worrying that he looks like he can't score to save his life. I hope it's just a case of SamBennett-itis and he's able to shake that off before Christmas.

There is no guarantees for any team. This is not an isolated concern affecting only the Flames. But as was pointed out, their secondary scoring is in good shape, even without contributions from James Neal.

It sucks that his contract is high and the term is long, but fretting about it in December with the Flames outscoring almost every team in the League and atop the WC seems a tad reactionary. I suspect they will be fine this year, and if Neal does manage to rediscover his scoring, all the better.


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[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

There is no guarantees for any team. This is not an isolated concern affecting only the Flames. But as was pointed out, their secondary scoring is in good shape, even without contributions from James Neal.

It sucks that his contract is high and the term is long, but fretting about it in December with the Flames outscoring almost every team in the League and atop the WC seems a tad reactionary. I suspect they will be fine this year, and if Neal does manage to rediscover his scoring, all the better.


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Been lucky with Winger injuries too. Guys will miss games, Neal will move up and get better opportunities, and our depth will shine.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The bolded part is not really true.

Our top 4 forwards (basically the forwards on the first power play unit) are tied with Colorado for the most goals of any 4 forwards in the NHL.

The rest of the forwards are tied for 11th in depth scoring amongst forwards. 20% of the secondary scoring comes from Frolik. Tampa actually has a balanced lineup, with 52 goals coming from forwards outside of the top 4 and 57 goals coming from the top 4. For the Flames that split is 59 goals from the top 4 and 35 goals from the rest of the forwards.

I do not think I would take Lindholm off of the top line under really any circumstance. Anytime I have seen Neal with Johnny and Monahan after penalty kills the line has never created a scoring chance that I can remember. I think those lines would result in two mediocre scoring lines as opposed to one elite scoring line and a below average second scoring line. It has also been years since Neal was on the top line on his team. I think those days have justifiably passed him by.

I too think our depth scoring is overrated by some. But if you have one of the very top scoring lines in hockey, and your other forward scoring is still above average, that's still pretty good.

[TheIronMaiden]

At the time of the signing I voted wait and see. That is still my attitude. I think that the Flames, and their fans are in a position where they can be patient. Its not always a luxury that we have so I am going to enjoy it. If the Flames start losing because of a lack of scoring, I will probably become more frustrated. But until then I will relax and enjoy some good hockey and not think about who is struggling.

[SuperMatt18]

Personally I think Neal has had some flashes where he's looked good but overall he's been poor and looked a step slow.

But the interesting thing with Neal is that his individual shot/scoring chance rates are kind of in line with his career norm in all areas, except on-ice shooting percentage, and individual shooting percentage.

Individual Shots/60 Minutes

2015-2018: 10.00
2018-2019: 9.17

Individual Scoring Chances/60

2015-2018: 9.82
2018-2019: 9.04

Individual High Danger Chances/60

2015-2018: 3.83
2018-2019: 3.13

On Ice Corsi For / 60

2015-2018: 65.3
2018-2019: 63.4

On Ice Corsi Against / 60

2015-2018: 47.3
2018-2019: 47.5

So a little down in shots / creating chances vs the last 3 seasons prior to this one - but pretty much in line with the norm for him.

This is where the big difference comes into play though.

Individual Shooting Percentage

2015-2018: 11.8%
2018-2019: 4.1%

On Ice Shooting Percentage

2015-2018: 10.5%
2018-2019: 6.3%

For me personally I wonder if the puck just not going in for him may be skewing his performance overall, he was brought in as a pure sniper and it just hasn't happened. If he individually was shooting at his career normal shooting percentage and had 8 goals instead of 3, and was on the ice for 24 GF instead of 16 I feel like my "eye test" may be telling me something very different with him.

I think long term they need to get him more ice time with one of Tkachuk or Gaudreau (our best two playmakers IMO) but really tough to mess with the top 6 since they had been so effective up until this point.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think Neal plays in the top six as an injury replacement because he is probably the Flames best option for a scoring line without disrupting the line balance too much. But I am confused by this assertion in your post. You yourself pointed out in this same post that the Flames secondary scoring is sctually above average:

I get that everyone wants more scoring, but this is just simply not an issue right now. The Flames have a spectacular top line, and also manage to get good production from their depth players comparatively speaking. This looks like a recipe for success to me.




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I thought our current available forwards 4-6 were lower than they were, but they are actually in a 3 way tie for 14th, which is actually the very definition of average, not below average.

My main point was that I think you lose more production from Johnny, Monahan and Lindholm when you split them up than you gain by moving Lindholm off the top line and place Neal on there. If they want to put Neal with Tkachuk I think that is fine, but I would not play him with Gaudreau and Monahan.

The likelihood that Neal has a shooting percentage at or above his historical average in any season under this contract is low, based on historical patterns for players over the age of 31 however, so I think we should be hoping for an 7-8 shooting percentage as opposed to 12-13, which would be more in line with what can be expected of him.

According to the stats posted by SuperMatt, Neal has had a 18.3% drop in high danger scoring chances. If you assume he has a corresponding drop in his shooting percentage because you expect him to score most of his goals from high danger scoring chances, his shooting percentage drops from 11.8% to an expected 9.6%. If you shave of another point or two because older players usually experience a drop in shooting percentage you get to 7-8 percent expect shooting percentage (roughly).

His historical percentage does not seem overly relevant to me, other than to say that a younger James Neal would score more goals, which seems obvious. With the exception of last year when he was in a contract year, his historical shooting percentage has been slowly dropping over the previous 4 years (albeit slightly). This would be in line with historical data that offensively players marginally drop between 26-30. That same historical data says that players significantly drop from 31-35.

All that being said, I think the expectation for Neal should have been 15 goals a season when he was signed. He is below that pace so far this year and hopefully will bounce back but 20+ goals was always unrealistic.