07-04-2018, 10:48 AM
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#181
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Franchise Player
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Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:
Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268
Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr
Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA
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07-04-2018, 10:52 AM
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#182
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Austria, NOT Australia
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James Neal signing a one year deal as a 30-year-old UFA is such a stupid prediction that I honestly don't know what to say.
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07-04-2018, 10:54 AM
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#183
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ricardodw
Chris Kane predicted on May 25 that:
Neal would sign a 1 yr deal for $4,310,268
Ryan would sign a 2 year deal $2,483,222 /yr
Czarnik 1 year at $715,773 but that was as a RFA Since he only played 10 NHL games this year his NHL total is 59 was under 80 NHL games so he became a UFA
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I'm not understanding his thought process here. There was no way Neal was signing a one year deal. Any idea how he came to that conclusion? If you scroll over to the right you can see that his 5 year value for Neal was $5,853,567. For Ryan he had a 3 year value at $3,059,723.
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07-04-2018, 10:59 AM
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#184
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
I'm not understanding his thought process here. There was no way Neal was signing a one year deal. Any idea how he came to that conclusion? If you scroll over to the right you can see that his 5 year value for Neal was $5,853,567. For Ryan he had a 3 year value at $3,059,723.
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I didn't see that... THose were his predictions if he signed a 5 year deal.
The 1 Year deal was likely to stay in Vegas for another run at the cup.??
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07-05-2018, 10:41 AM
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#185
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sector 7-G
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07-05-2018, 11:16 AM
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#186
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First Line Centre
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He must have a spy.
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07-05-2018, 11:22 AM
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#187
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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__________________
Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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07-05-2018, 11:27 AM
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#188
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Franchise Player
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Chiarelli was the Bruins GM when they signed Czarnik
Fool me once ...
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07-05-2018, 11:29 AM
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#189
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Taking a while to get to 5000
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Oilers should have flown out to the guys house to see him. Flames were one of two teams that did that apparently.
I will assume they tried to Skype with him though.
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07-05-2018, 11:38 AM
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#190
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Resident Videologist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toonage
Oilers should have flown out to the guys house to see him. Flames were one of two teams that did that apparently.
I will assume they tried to Skype with him though.
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I heard Edmonton tried to add him to their top 8 on MySpace.
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07-05-2018, 11:41 AM
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#191
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 Posted the 6 millionth post! |
Quote:
Originally Posted by AC
I heard Edmonton tried to add him to their top 8 on MySpace.
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Chiarelli thinks social media is when TV people are breaking the fourth wall.
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07-05-2018, 11:56 AM
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#192
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Franchise Player
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Haha
Stupid Oilers.
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07-05-2018, 12:03 PM
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#193
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC
I heard Edmonton tried to add him to their top 8 on MySpace.
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I heard that Skype call was with Keith Gretzky and Glen Gulutzan.
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07-05-2018, 12:28 PM
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#194
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
I'm not understanding his thought process here. There was no way Neal was signing a one year deal. Any idea how he came to that conclusion? If you scroll over to the right you can see that his 5 year value for Neal was $5,853,567. For Ryan he had a 3 year value at $3,059,723.
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His predictions for the Calgary signings were pretty close
Neal - 1.8% off
Ryan - 2.1% off
Czarnik - 38% off - Guess that was the overpayment due to the number of teams interested - Prediction was $775k vs the $1.25 mil that was signed.
Neal term was predicted as follows
1 year - 25%
2 year - 21%
3 year - 14%
4 year - 10%
5 year - 8%
Not sure what the modeling is for this. We all did agree that the term was the most troubling aspect of the contract. So a 8% prediction for a 5-year term lines up with that in some sense.
he has the following predictions for
Lindholm - 5 years @ 4.978 Mil
Hanifin - 2 years @ 2.336 mil
Hathaway - 2 years @ 1.055 mil
Kulak - 1 year @ 820k
Another interesting thing is the Canucks signings for Beagle and Roussel were 26% and 18% higher than he predicted. Really odd signings by the Canucks on those 2 in terms of timing with their window to win. Also shows the granlund contract was higher than predicted, but the Sven contract about spot on.
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07-05-2018, 12:59 PM
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#195
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Wouldn’t surprise me to see Treliving use the leverage of lower salaries near minimum for Hathaway and Kulak again saying they will be incentive for them to stay with the big club. Kulak will probably get a small raise from last years.
__________________
Originally Posted by oilboy2 
This deal is DONE, im not sure what the worry is. Heatly is an Oiler, just some paperwork to get done. This isnt another Nylander incident
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07-05-2018, 01:12 PM
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#196
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Norm!
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I would like Kulak back, I'm fairly nonplussed about Hathaway.
__________________
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
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07-05-2018, 01:41 PM
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#197
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Resident Videologist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Calgary
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Friedman reiterated that there was a tonne of interest in Czarnik around the league, and Edmonton really wanted him. Said Treliving flying out to meet him really made a difference in his mind.
Said that Czarnik is the league looking at how many players did great in Vegas after not getting the opportunity or a large enough role on their previous teams. Said not to count out Czarnik when discussing Neal and Derek Ryan.
Really seems like a bit of a mystery package with Czarnik. Should be fun seeing him get a chance, whether its 2nd PP time, or maybe a 3rd line try out, and how he does with the opportunity.
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07-05-2018, 02:00 PM
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#198
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Saving the world one gif at a time
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AC
Friedman reiterated that there was a tonne of interest in Czarnik around the league, and Edmonton really wanted him. Said Treliving flying out to meet him really made a difference in his mind.
Said that Czarnik is the league looking at how many players did great in Vegas after not getting the opportunity or a large enough role on their previous teams. Said not to count out Czarnik when discussing Neal and Derek Ryan.
Really seems like a bit of a mystery package with Czarnik. Should be fun seeing him get a chance, whether its 2nd PP time, or maybe a 3rd line try out, and how he does with the opportunity.
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A friend of mine played against Czarnik for 2 years in the NCAA. He says he was a great player with speed and creativity with the potential to be in the top 6 eventually. Said if he would have went to another school with better players he might have won the Hobey Baker. Thinks he is very dynamic.
__________________
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07-05-2018, 02:13 PM
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#199
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bomber317
His predictions for the Calgary signings were pretty close
Neal - 1.8% off
Ryan - 2.1% off
Czarnik - 38% off - Guess that was the overpayment due to the number of teams interested - Prediction was $775k vs the $1.25 mil that was signed.
Neal term was predicted as follows
1 year - 25%
2 year - 21%
3 year - 14%
4 year - 10%
5 year - 8%
Not sure what the modeling is for this. We all did agree that the term was the most troubling aspect of the contract. So a 8% prediction for a 5-year term lines up with that in some sense.
he has the following predictions for
Lindholm - 5 years @ 4.978 Mil
Hanifin - 2 years @ 2.336 mil
Hathaway - 2 years @ 1.055 mil
Kulak - 1 year @ 820k
Another interesting thing is the Canucks signings for Beagle and Roussel were 26% and 18% higher than he predicted. Really odd signings by the Canucks on those 2 in terms of timing with their window to win. Also shows the granlund contract was higher than predicted, but the Sven contract about spot on.
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Yeah I understand all of that except for the part where Neal had the greatest percentage of signing a one year deal. One of most sought after free agents signing a one year deal at age 30? Seems very unlikely no matter who the player is.
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07-05-2018, 02:18 PM
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#200
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bax
Yeah I understand all of that except for the part where Neal had the greatest percentage of signing a one year deal. One of most sought after free agents signing a one year deal at age 30? Seems very unlikely no matter who the player is.
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yeah, I mentioned I don't know how he modeled the probabilities.
Would be interesting to know, has anybody asked him on twitter, how the shorter 1-2 year terms was over 50% probability?
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