[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[2macinnis2]

Originally Posted by Gaudreau is a Ninja

Woke up this morning still very happy with the trade. The Flames got younger and faster. Hanifin scored 10 goals and is only 21 years old and is a very fast and smooth skater. Lindholm is obviously not as tough as Ferland but is a way better skater. He scored 16 goals as a 23 year old and didn't play with Johnny and Mony. Hamilton also might be a bit of a problem off the ice and Ferland is unrestricted in one year and will be getting a big raise. Hamilton is going to get a huge raise in 2 years. Tre is going to be able to lock Hanifin and Lindholm for a long time. Fox has signing issues and not sure if he would want to sign in Carolina either. There is a very good chance he wants to finish Harvard then become a free agent. I'm happy with the trade if you look at all the factors. Plus I highly doubt Tre is done upgrading the forward scoring

There's no one on that Canes roster I'm trading Gaudreau or Monahan straight up for.

That means Lindholm is now playing alongside TWO guys better than anyone he's played with at the NHL level. Let's see how it goes...

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That's kind of where the problem lies, no? We're hoping Hanifin can become in the future what Dougie Hamilton is now.

We're hoping Lindholm at least scores as many goals as Ferland did - which would be a third as many more than he's ever scored before.

And we still need a RW.

These two players have great talent. But unless one takes a quantum leap and the other another step forward, then we're really just spinning our wheels from last season to this.

Ferly’s best is 21.
Lindholm’s best is 17.
Improving by 4 goals over 17 goals is a 23% increase.
I love Ferly, but to keep the discussion pure, we should try to make sure the stats comparisons are factual.

[CaptainCrunch]

Please show me any prospect that on his own was flipped for a first round draft pick. Fox's value wasn't close to that, and most teams would have waited to aquire him, and also would have on a individual basis of a trade with time talked to people around Fox about his intention to sign with the Flames and that would have driven his value down.


The descriptor of Ferland has been exaggerated now that he's been traded. His consistency was a problem, as was his day to day effort level. He was 26 and as much as people will say his potential had only be scratched, Ferland was what he was going to be. That's not saying he was a bad player, far from it, but he was a bottom 6 forward that could be moved to a top 6 role but not on a permanent basis.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Regarding Lindholm, the guy had superb numbers in the SHL in his draft year...30 points in 48 games.

Eliteprospects has a filter to sort highest per season points over several seasons. You can then filter to just look at U19.

Pretty amazing what comes up.....I can't embed the list, so hit the link

https://www.eliteprospects.com/leagu...ge=u19&sort=tp

If he becomes as good as some of the players on that list, this would be a big win for the Flames.

[SuperMatt18]

I’m actually intrigued to see if Fox signs in Carolina.

If one of the issues in Calgary was that it didn’t look like there was a spot for him then Carolina is even worse from that regard.

Slavin, Hamilton, Pesce, Faulk, van Riemsdyk, Bean, Fleury

[keenan87]

If Lindholm can become a 60 point player next season, I would be ecstatic.

Gaudreau 80 points
Monahan 65 points
Lindholm 60 points

That is 205 points from your top line and it's not an unrealistic expectation.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by 2macinnis2

What? I'd say 99% of this board thought Monahan was obviously the better player than MacKinnon going into this season. So the last 82 games were that critical? Things change and yeah, we still really don't know if Sam Bennett can be a top line player. I still see it as very possible, not highly unlikely (much moreso than you would believe reading this forum). To your point, Bo Horvat could darn well being a top 5 scorer in the NHL... we really don't know. Look at the leap even Taylor Hall took this year.
.

With Hall it wasn't really anything outside his already established ability level.

He finished 9th in league scoring in his third season.
Tied for 6th in league scoring his 4th season.

This season he finished 6th in league scoring, but he did it on a team that barely made the playoffs.

I think it's fair to say that most NHL forwards show what they have by their 4-5 season.

Lindholm likely is what he is. He may be the rare case that breaks out further, but he wasn't buried on the depth chart in Carolina. Played with Aho and got top 3 PP time.

Bennett for sure isn't a closed book. If there is a player there I think you should expect to see some improvement this season.

[2macinnis2]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

With Hall it wasn't really anything outside his already established ability level.

He finished 9th in league scoring in his third season.
Tied for 6th in league scoring his 4th season.

This season he finished 6th in league scoring, but he did it on a team that barely made the playoffs.

I think it's fair to say that most NHL forwards show what they have by their 4-5 season.

Lindholm likely is what he is. He may be the rare case that breaks out further, but he wasn't buried on the depth chart in Carolina. Played with Aho and got top 3 PP time.

Bennett for sure isn't a closed book. If there is a player there I think you should expect to see some improvement this season.

When did Taylor Hall win the Hart Trophy when he was with the Oilers? Must have missed that one.

Yeah you better believe the Oilers don't trade Hall to the Devils if they foresee him becoming a Hart candidate, let alone a winner.

The vast, VAST majority of hockey forwards don't meet their potential until they are at least 25. Using games played in the NHL from 18-21 as a reliable indicator of a player's ceiling is misguided.

EDIT: Iginla's first 4 NHL seasons (96-99), 311 GP and never cracked 30 goals. At age 23 he hits 31 and scores 30+ for 11 seasons. And that's just a superficial numbers look at his game. Any of us who watched his whole career that it was until the 03-04 season (age 26) that he met his ceiling. Meaning overall Iginla age 26 was >> Iginla 22.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Kybb79

Why does this team always trade for underachieving losers from cheap teams.

Dude you've passed Ricardodw now on my list.

I have to tip my hat, I didn't think that was possible.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by 2macinnis2

When did Taylor Hall win the Hart Trophy when he was with the Oilers? Must have missed that one.

He finished 6th in scoring his 4th season.

He finished 6th in scoring this year.

Individually he had pretty similar seasons. The biggest difference was the narrative around him changed.

Just like how Kessel was a loser in Toronto and Ovechkin was a loser until this year.

Hockey media likes to keep things simple.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Dion

So you get your jollies out of irritating people?

Low class move IMO.

Haven’t you read his posts?

[Igottago]

Fascinating trade really, and pretty ballsy by Treliving. I think the thing that makes some uneasy about it is you are losing two known quantities for guys you are hoping will tap into their full potential. The deal could be a major win for the Flames if both players end up living up to their draft positions, but I also think there's a risk of an immediate dip since they don't seem to be there yet. I don't think this trade makes the Flames better right away. So if the Flames miss the playoffs next season, people will probably not look kindly on it. But in the long term it has the potential to be a great trade. We will just have to see.

[TheScorpion]

Wait, Bingo has a list? Oh... oh no.

[2macinnis2]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

He finished 6th in scoring his 4th season.

He finished 6th in scoring this year.

Individually he had pretty similar seasons. The biggest difference was the narrative around him changed.

Just like how Kessel was a loser in Toronto and Ovechkin was a loser until this year.

Hockey media likes to keep things simple.

I get what you're saying re:awards and media but I think it's also 'keeping things simple' by simply evaluating individual performance by Gs and As. He's a better player today than he was when he was 23, is that not pretty clear?

[868904]

The problem here with those who hate this deal is:

1) that they over-valued Hamilton the player - I've been trying to downplay Hamilton's value for weeks here cause I had a feeling the Flames were going to trade him. I kept reading words on this site about Hamilton being "elite offensively" or having "elite offensive production" or "elite goal scoring defensemen" and knew there was going to be a bad reaction once he was traded. Dougie Hamilton was the 21st leading point producer in the NHL last season with 44 points. He was not "elite". The top 5 leaders in defense scored between 63 to 68 points; those are where the "elite" scoring numbers were and Hamilton wasn't anywhere close to it.

Hamilton's career high was 50 points. That's good offensive production, but it's not elite. That is Dennis Wideman type production. The difference between Hamilton and Wideman is that Hamilton is 6'6" and skates like a deer; however, Wideman's give a crap meter is a hell of a lot higher than Hamilton's. Both Hamilton and Wideman produce offense at a good (but not elite level), but both are atrocious defensively. The reason why Hamilton gets a pass is because he is 6'6". In years prior, short defensemen always got overlooked regardless of their production. Wideman and Giordano produced in junior and never got drafted. But if you are 6'6", well then you are the next Chris Pronger or Chara. There really wasn't much difference in Hamilton and Wideman's game, but optically Hamilton was superior because of his size and his 9th overall pedigree.

I know I’m getting a bit picky here about the how to classify Hamilton’s production, but I think it is important because a lot of posters and Flames fan were over-valuing him. He is NOT Brent Burns, or Victor Hedman, or Erik Karlson, or Drew Doughty, or John Carlson. He is a flawed defensemen who produces offense at an above average rate but who is terrible defensively and his defensive play is my biggest issue with him. Hamilton is terrible defensively, Giordano was constantly covering up his mistakes and I think Gio’s game suffered for it. The decline in Gio’s offensive production is not only a result of his age, but also just being burned out from doing double the work defensively. Being paired back with Brodie, should allow Gio to contribute more offensively. I think Giordano is a better offensive producer than Hamilton. Gio’s career high is 56 points and 21 goals, numbers that Hamilton never achieved in Calgary (but came close). Gio’s best season was 47 in 64 games or a 60 point rate which again is better than what Hamilton could do. And of course on top of that production, Gio was and still is a beast defensively. All this talk pre and post trade about Hamilton being the Flames best defensemen was absolutely ridiculous. A defenseman has to be able to DEFEND, which Hamilton can’t do. It was and is completely insulting to Giordano to call Hamilton the Flames best defensemen.

I was originally excited about acquiring Hamilton, but I also had some trepidation because the Bruins were a good organization. Why were they trading him? Everyone laughed at Sweeney calling him a newb GM, but they failed to recognize that while he was a new GM, an NHL’s executive team is more than just a GM. The Bruins organization as a whole recognized that Hamilton wasn’t that good and made a decision to sell. Look at what the Bruins have become since under Sweeney, they are back to being an elite team again and stocked with young prospects and players. They assessed Hamilton properly and now the Flames executive team, having seen him up close and personal now for 3-4 years are doing the same thing.

2) Hamilton’s Personality – I don’t care about the cross dressing, I don’t care about the introvert, but I have an issue with his lack of accountability and responsibility of skipping out on “clean out day”. It’s about facing the music. All your teammates were doing it, why can’t you do it? The fans want to hear from you, they pay good money for your salary, it’s part of the job. You don’t get to just skip out on it. As for the “well Kipper did it” argument; Kipper earned that right by leading his team to a Stanley Cup final and being the backbone of the team for years.

3) Contract control – A lot of the haters keep ignoring this fact. The Flames are gaining significant player control here. Hamilton has a few years left and will be UFA. Ferland IS A UFA next season. Fox wasn’t going to sign. The Canes might end up with 3 total seasons of play from Hamilton, Ferland and Fox. The Flames will likely get that from one of Lindholm or Hanifin alone, and if all goes well should get at least 10 service years out of them.

4) Undervaluing Lindholm and Hanifin – Lots of Flames fans have a myopic view of these guys because they play in Carolina, but both have huge potential. For those die hard flames fans who follow prospects and drafts, we know what potential these two have. Just look at the “Lindholm – Monahan” poll from 2015. Lindholm has great potential, very much unrealized. Of course, an issue here is, is Bill Peters the best guy to help him realize it; but that is besides the point if we are talking potential and value. If some other team acquired Lindholm, everyone would be talking about “fresh start” and projecting bigger offensive production. Also with these two way Swedish centres, sometimes it takes them a while to realize their offensive production. Look at Backlund, look at Zetterberg, look at Henrik Sedin. The reason is because Swedish centres are taught from a young age to focus on the defensive side first and sometimes they become overly cautious and neglect the offensive side. Lindholm came straight to the NHL after being drafted while Zetterberg and Sedin spent some more time in Sweden to develop first; it might have been better for Lindholm to have stayed an extra year in Sweden before going over to that tirefire in Carolina. Lindholm’s first few seasons in the NHL mirror that of Zetterberg and Sedin. He is poised for an offensive breakout. Lindholm doesn’t even need to turn into Zetterberg or Sedin for this trade to be a win for the Flames. He just needs to improve to a 50 to 60 point producer, which I think is very much achievable.

As for Hanifin, he’s still a work in progress but the potential again is huge. He was and still is considered to have franchise player potential. Flames fans are super high (and probably over valuing again) on Anderson and Kylington, but Hanifin was drafted in the same year and has already played 3 full NHL seasons. Hanifin’s skating is elite, not “skates like a deer good”, but ELITE. He is one of the best skaters in the game period and this is becoming ever important in the game. Look at all the sub 6’ tall defensemen getting selected high in the draft because of their skating ability, and Hanifin has that skating ability and is 6’3”! I’m not expecting or anticipating Hanifin to ever produce at an elite level, but I do think he will be 40 to 50 point producer but eventually develop into a strong defender, which is something I never saw Hamilton developing into. There’s more for Hanifin to develop defensively, whereas Hamilton is getting close to his potential there. Learning the defensive side is about attitude and character, something i'm not sure Hamilton had the right amounts of.

[868904]

Originally Posted by rhino

Really?? My follow up post spoke about character.... Tell me why you think Hamilton holds more value then Hanifin? Points? The points don’t matter on a team missing the playoffs! Defence? Hamilton was a -41 in the giveaway/takeaway department, he was a disaster in the defensive zone.... Hanifin only -2.

That's a great stat.

Funny, Brodie had 68 giveaways and a -20 differential yet everyone here thinks he's worse than Hamilton and his 72 giveaways and -41 differential.

Hamonic was a -18, Gio was a +4, Stone was a -16.

Certainly is consistent with what I saw in watching the games.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by 2macinnis2

I get what you're saying re:awards and media but I think it's also 'keeping things simple' by simply evaluating individual performance by Gs and As. He's a better player today than he was when he was 23, is that not pretty clear?

I think perception of the guy changed way more than his on ice play.

He seemed liked the same Hall when I watched him play this year. Great play driver and offensive force.

We can agree to disagree on that point.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by TheoFleury

I wish people would stop using draft position to help justify this trade. Who cares if they are former top 5 selections? Those drafts were years ago and (I hope) had no bearing on this trade, though it might help explain it a little if they did.

It's almost as though the problems in Carolina (and here, for that matter) are beyond Hanifin and Lindholm.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by 868904

4) Undervaluing Lindholm and Hanifin – Lots of Flames fans have a myopic view of these guys because they play in Carolina, but both have huge potential. For those die hard flames fans who follow prospects and drafts, we know what potential these two have. Just look at the “Lindholm – Monahan” poll from 2015. Lindholm has great potential, very much unrealized. Of course, an issue here is, is Bill Peters the best guy to help him realize it; but that is besides the point if we are talking potential and value. If some other team acquired Lindholm, everyone would be talking about “fresh start” and projecting bigger offensive production. Also with these two way Swedish centres, sometimes it takes them a while to realize their offensive production. Look at Backlund, look at Zetterberg, look at Henrik Sedin. The reason is because Swedish centres are taught from a young age to focus on the defensive side first and sometimes they become overly cautious and neglect the offensive side. Lindholm came straight to the NHL after being drafted while Zetterberg and Sedin spent some more time in Sweden to develop first; it might have been better for Lindholm to have stayed an extra year in Sweden before going over to that tirefire in Carolina. Lindholm’s first few seasons in the NHL mirror that of Zetterberg and Sedin. He is poised for an offensive breakout. Lindholm doesn’t even need to turn into Zetterberg or Sedin for this trade to be a win for the Flames. He just needs to improve to a 50 to 60 point producer, which I think is very much achievable.

Lindholm is going to be a goddamned monster. Watching some Carolina highlights and this guy knows where to go. Fast, mobile, great hands, great shot and smart.

I can't believe the Flames got him for Ferland and rights to Fox. Thank you cheap Carolina owners.

As for Hanifin, he’s still a work in progress but the potential again is huge. He was and still is considered to have franchise player potential. Flames fans are super high (and probably over valuing again) on Anderson and Kylington, but Hanifin was drafted in the same year and has already played 3 full NHL seasons. Hanifin’s skating is elite, not “skates like a deer good”, but ELITE. He is one of the best skaters in the game period and this is becoming ever important in the game. Look at all the sub 6’ tall defensemen getting selected high in the draft because of their skating ability, and Hanifin has that skating ability and is 6’3”! I’m not expecting or anticipating Hanifin to ever produce at an elite level, but I do think he will be 40 to 50 point producer but eventually develop into a strong defender, which is something I never saw Hamilton developing into. There’s more for Hanifin to develop defensively, whereas Hamilton is getting close to his potential there. Learning the defensive side is about attitude and character, something i'm not sure Hamilton had the right amounts of.

Hanifin is just as offensive as Hamilton based on the highlights I was watching. Defensively people might not like him too much. OTOH he seems to not do the "WTF were you think Dougie" defensive plays.

[Johnny Makarov]

Can never trust a grown man named Dougie. Like this trade and goto hell Alex Fox!