Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Sure. But based on Formenton's junior stats it is equally unlikely that he does any better.

Easy money then

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Easy money then

My point is that it is was an odd bet to make.
You are basically betting on which is going to suck less offensively with no stats to back up a theory that Formenton will score more, except for the fact that maybe Lazar out-sucks him.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

My point is that it is was an odd bet to make.
You are basically betting on which is going to suck less offensively with no stats to back up a theory that Formenton will score more, except for the fact that maybe Lazar out-sucks him.

Lazar has 250 games of not producing.

Formenton will likely get an opportunity through the lineup because the sens will be garbage. Scoring 12 points in the NHL over 60 games is not hard.

All of those factors tell me that if formenton makes the senators next year and play at least half a season, he's likely to score as much or more than Lazar.

Only 4 rookie forwards in the league scored less than Lazar last year and none of them played more than 50 games.

Jiri, YOU could score 12 points in the NHL if someone gave you 10 minutes a night for 60 games.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think we need to be careful not to cherry pick though.

If you go straight to NHL averages the 10th forward has an average of 19 points, the 11th forward has an average of of 15 points, and the 12th forward has an average of 13 points.

The Flames last year had Stajan, Lazar and Hathaway at 10-12th in forward scoring with 13, 12 and 12

They're behind but the issue lies much more with the upper half of the roster than the fourth.

The bigger issue is the top of the roster and the fact that they need a better second line to trickle things down and help the fourth line. Past that they need quicker players on the bottom end to hold serve until the big boys come out.

By line the NHL had the following this season.

Top Line : 69 points (85/65/55)
Calgary: 85/65/50 (Tkachuk as third best forward)
Difference: -5

Second Line : 42 points (48/42/36)
Calgary: 45/41/26 leaking
Difference: -14

Third Line : 27 points (32/27/23)
Calgary: 25/25/22
Difference: -10

Fourth Line: 19 points (19/15/13)
Flames: 13/13/12
Difference: -9

The middle six is the culprit, the Flames need to ...

a) add to the top six and create a trickle down
b) get young, quick with upside at the bottom half of the roster so they can improve and not decline through a season

I don't see Lazar as a problem with his foot speed, but if he's beat out he's beat out.

I don't disagree with you, in fact, I was actually thinking the same thing but decided not to post it. Productive 4th liners like Brett Connolly and Austin Watson and etc are not easy to find, but to me, that doesn't excuse the 4th line from their lack of production this season because we relied far too much on the 1st line this season along with Tkachuk, who in my opinion, are the only forwards who met or exceeded my standards.

All the other forwards just weren't good enough this season as we ended up as one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and as stats indicate, it's almost a virtual guarantee that if you're in the bottom 5 in the GF column, you just don't make the playoffs.

I do agree with you that the 2nd line was quite a problem this season. I thought they were good enough last season and for a large part of the season, was actually our best line. But they regressed and it definitely contributed to our failed season.

But the problem is, finding 2 or 3 new (potentially expensive) 2nd line forwards doesn't seem plausible to me in one off-season. Almost every team in the league is trying to find additional scoring and finding just 1 good difference making forward can be difficult (i.e. Troy Brouwer). At the end of the day, it may actually be easier for Treliving just to replace Stajan and Lazar because the 6 goals they provided can be replaced by almost anyone.

[Barca]

here are recent 2nd round picks from last years draft, I would take every single one of them over Lazar.

Conor Timmins
Kole Lind
Nicolas Hague
Aleksi Heponiemi
Jaret Anderson-Dolan
Dylan Samberg
Jonah Gadjovich
Alex Formenton

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Barca

here are recent 2nd round picks from last years draft, I would take every single one of them over Lazar.



Conor Timmins

Kole Lind

Nicolas Hague

Aleksi Heponiemi

Jaret Anderson-Dolan

Dylan Samberg

Jonah Gadjovich

Alex Formenton

Really easy to say that. Wait two years.


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[circle]

Originally Posted by Barca

here are recent 2nd round picks from last years draft, I would take every single one of them over Lazar.

Conor Timmins
Kole Lind
Nicolas Hague
Aleksi Heponiemi
Jaret Anderson-Dolan
Dylan Samberg
Jonah Gadjovich
Alex Formenton

Let's also recognize that our 2nd round pick was 47th overall and the majority of the players you listed here were drafted before our pick that we used for Lazar.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Really easy to say that. Wait two years.


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Not to mention that all but two of those guys went before 47 anyways

The Flames knew they’d be trading a late second for a young guy with moderate upside who had had success in the league

Lazar scored 20 points carrying around Chris Neil as a 21 year old, he definitely is an NHL caliber player, but as with every other non-superstar on the team, his stats are trash under GG

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

So why not trade away your 2nd rounder every season for an NHL roster player?

You'd thinks fans of the Flames, of all teams, would be painfully aware of the long-term cost of trading away 2nd round picks year after year. You end up with the anemic prospect base this team has endured for most of the last 20 years, and the need to pay or trade for expensive veterans to fill in the depth roster spots. It's a vicious circle that chronically afflicts impatient franchises.

Taking arguments to the extreme to make a point is so lame.

No one is suggesting that it's a great idea to trade your 2nd round pick for a serviceable player every single year.

But it's perfectly reasonable to do it once in a while.

On a one-off, the odds favour taking a serviceable player. But over time, with multiple seasons, you need to have the upside of hitting on a great 2nd rounder every once in a while.

Taking either argument to the extreme (we should make the trade every year, or we should never make the trade) is equally ridiculous.

[CalgaryFan1988]

So, the trade thread is the Bennett thread and the Bennett thread is the Lazar thread?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

So, the trade thread is the Bennett thread and the Bennett thread is the Lazar thread?

Its shaping up to be a long off season.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

So, the trade thread is the Bennett thread and the Bennett thread is the Lazar thread?

Just you wait, it'll all snowball into one big Jankowski thread. It's inevitable.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Just you wait, it'll all snowball into on big Jankowski thread. It's inevitable.

well played sir... my thoughts exactly

[Corral]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The odds of a player revealing untapped potential decreases sharply year by year. There's a reason the Senators didn't have a problem with letting him go.

Agreed. And are still laughing with our 2nd round pick in hand. Lazar belongs in the AHL.

[Harry Lime]

Speaking of which....

Don't be surprised at all if Jankowski is the Flames number 2 centre at the start of the season next year. He and Tkachuk could hold that role and Backlund could be put in the third pairing where he naturally fits.

Foo and Ferland holding down the two RW spots, and Bennett reunited with Backlund and Frolik.

Barring an impact trade, which I'm beginning to think will not happen. The big move could have already played out with the new coach.

[Strange Brew]

I have been thinking lately that there’s no way Treliving leaves the draft without making any picks in first 3 rounds. You’d be looking at effectively losing an entire draft year. Flames coild end up gaining atleast two picks in first 3 rounds IMO.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I have been thinking lately that there’s no way Treliving leaves the draft without making any picks in first 3 rounds. You’d be looking at effectively losing an entire draft year. Flames coild end up gaining atleast two picks in first 3 rounds IMO.

Agreed. I think Fox and/or Bennett get moved for picks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Taking arguments to the extreme to make a point is so lame.

No one is suggesting that it's a great idea to trade your 2nd round pick for a serviceable player every single year.

But it's perfectly reasonable to do it once in a while.

On a one-off, the odds favour taking a serviceable player. But over time, with multiple seasons, you need to have the upside of hitting on a great 2nd rounder every once in a while.

Taking either argument to the extreme (we should make the trade every year, or we should never make the trade) is equally ridiculous.

The team accumulated 2nd round picks for two straight drafts, one year using them as trade bate, the next using them to select players.

I think it's disingenuous to just run the Flames into a "always trading their 2nd round picks" as a rule.

I honestly think results in back to back drafts (success) makes you more likely to move picks because you've already stocked the store.

[Strange Brew]

I just don’t know how well stocked the store is for the Flames. If it was me, I’d like to see a top 5 group of prospects before you are trading the kind of picks Flames have traded lately. If Flames don’t add any picks on this draft, I could see their system ranked around 15th or so. So maybe average.

I wish the accumulated picks had been kept personally. It’s risky to judge picks as successful before many have even turned pro.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I just don’t know how well stocked the store is for the Flames. If it was me, I’d like to see a top 5 group of prospects before you are trading the kind of picks Flames have traded lately. If Flames don’t add any picks on this draft, I could see their system ranked around 15th or so. So maybe average.

I wish the accumulated picks had been kept personally. It’s risky to judge picks as successful before many have even turned pro.

They graduated Monahan, Bennett and Tkachuk as top six forwards.
They have three goaltenders with upside.
They have four defensemen with top four potential.

That's a pretty stocked young team.

I'm sure they'd love to add to that and keep their picks for sure, but the logic certainly wasn't insane.