[GDT] NHL Draft Lottery

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames are 7 for 7 for the last picks they have made in the 1st three rounds.

Considering the fact that 6 of those picks have either never played or barely played in the NHL, it's a little early to suggest that the Flames have hit on all of those picks. Parsons in particular remains a lottery ticket pick.

[The Boy Wonder]

Flames are definitely not great at developing our draft picks and I certainly wouldn't say we've "hit" on 7 of 7.

Knowing how our organization develops talent I wouldn't be surprised if our stud defensive prospects all take a step back next year and we're left with bare cupboards and Fox refuses to sign...

at least the east got the top 3 picks in the lotto though

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

So the forward equivalent of Hamonic might be Mike Hoffman. He is coming of a lesser year after some top-3 years. He is got 2 years left at a 5.2 M cap hit.

If Ottawa were to retain 1.4M of his cap he would have the same cap hit and contract length as Hamonic.

So somehow because the Flames are able to draft pretty well they should give up the same package for him as they gave up for Hamonic?

Next years 1st and 2 2nds?

Or Valimaki and pick 2 of past 2nd round picks that have not made it to the NHL level - Fox, Dube, Parsons, Kylington and Andersen.

If this seems to be an invalid straw man argument then please provide some rationale why a good drafting team ( that is at best a bubble team) makes trading away high draft choices for an above average NHL player in peak years a good thing.


PS So the Flames who were a lot closer to 1 for 7 at the time made a mistake when trading for Hamilton?

This is your narrative, not mine.

I'm just pointing out that I'd see your narrative the exact opposite way. Recent success means less room in the development system, and more room to take a swing at a core roster player. Both seem pretty obvious to me.

Hoffman at about 33% retained would certainly garner interest, and that interest would probably drive up the price to within that range yes.

And Hamilton was a special opportunity that Treliving managed to slip into. At the time the team hadn't drafted Andersson, Kylington, Fox or Valimaki so it certainly made a boat load of sense.

The fact that Hamilton has improved his value since makes it a good deal no matter how you look at it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Flames are definitely not great at developing our draft picks and I certainly wouldn't say we've "hit" on 7 of 7.

Knowing how our organization develops talent I wouldn't be surprised if our stud defensive prospects all take a step back next year and we're left with bare cupboards and Fox refuses to sign...

at least the east got the top 3 picks in the lotto though

That's a pretty chipper view point!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Flames are definitely not great at developing our draft picks and I certainly wouldn't say we've "hit" on 7 of 7.

Knowing how our organization develops talent I wouldn't be surprised if our stud defensive prospects all take a step back next year and we're left with bare cupboards and Fox refuses to sign...

at least the east got the top 3 picks in the lotto though

Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Backlund
Giordano
Ferland
Brodie
Jankowski
Kulak

I mean....whats the issue?

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Backlund
Giordano
Ferland
Brodie
Jankowski
Kulak

I mean....whats the issue?

Look at other teams t

I dunno... I just feel that we don't develop players as well as other teams... Look at tampa, Nashville, winnipeg or boston, they have stud prospects developed internally who are contributing all over their roster.

Maybe its just that our top internally developed players seem not as good as other teams top internally developed players.

Each of those teams has multiple untouchables while the flames have 2. Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

Sorry for the negativeity but it just feels like were destined for the same old same in the next year. Finish middle of the pack, win no more than one round, no real sustained success.

[Red]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Look at other teams t

I dunno... I just feel that we don't develop players as well as other teams... Look at tampa, Nashville, winnipeg or boston, they have stud prospects developed internally who are contributing all over their roster.

Maybe its just that our top internally developed players seem not as good as other teams top internally developed players.

Each of those teams has multiple untouchables while the flames have 2. Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

Sorry for the negativeity but it just feels like were destined for the same old same in the next year. Finish middle of the pack, win no more than one round, no real sustained success.

These teams are having their best seasons so all players on those rosters look great. Wouldn't surprise me if those untouchables turn out to be nothing special when these teams take a step back..Just look how great everyone looked on the oilers in the 2016/2017 season.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Boy Wonder

Look at other teams t

I dunno... I just feel that we don't develop players as well as other teams... Look at tampa, Nashville, winnipeg or boston, they have stud prospects developed internally who are contributing all over their roster.

Maybe its just that our top internally developed players seem not as good as other teams top internally developed players.

Each of those teams has multiple untouchables while the flames have 2. Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

Sorry for the negativeity but it just feels like were destined for the same old same in the next year. Finish middle of the pack, win no more than one round, no real sustained success.

I get what you mean, and the Flames have been guilty of it in the past.

But looking at those 4 teams you listed? All, except Boston, have one thing in common.

Their GM's have been in place for at least 7 or 8 years.

Treliving is just finishing his 4th.

Its why, and many disagree, I believe you have to have continuity up top for a decent length of time which allows guys to come in and execute their plans. Yes some plans take many years to see to fruition. Call it a "process" (I know many hate that word but it is applicable).

Thus far i would suggest that BT has been very good in this respect. He needs to continue developing guys and moreso needs to win big on a couple more trades.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I get what you mean, and the Flames have been guilty of it in the past.

But looking at those 4 teams you listed? All, except Boston, have one thing in common.

Their GM's have been in place for at least 7 or 8 years.

Treliving is just finishing his 4th.

Its why, and many disagree, I believe you have to have continuity up top for a decent length of time which allows guys to come in and execute their plans. Yes some plans take many years to see to fruition. Call it a "process" (I know many hate that word but it is applicable).

Thus far i would suggest that BT has been very good in this respect. He needs to continue developing guys and moreso needs to win big on a couple more trades.

top 3 round draft picks since Trevling became Flames GM

Jets: 6 1st, 2 second, 4 3rds 12
Bruins 7 1sts, 6 2nds 1 3rd 14
Preds 3 1sts 5 2nds 5 3rds 13
Bolts 3 1st 8 2nds 5 3rds 16
Flames 3 1st 6 2nds 2 3rds 11

and that is before the Flames took a pass on the 2018 draft

These 4 teams all are missing their 2108 1st round pick. The difference is that they have deep teams and a deep pipeline and the draft pick they traded away was specifically for this playoff run and was 99% certain that it would be a 24 or higher overall pick when they traded it.

There are no examples of successful re-builds by trading draft picks for immediate help.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

top 3 round draft picks since Trevling became Flames GM

Jets: 6 1st, 2 second, 4 3rds 12
Bruins 7 1sts, 6 2nds 1 3rd 14
Preds 3 1sts 5 2nds 5 3rds 13
Bolts 3 1st 8 2nds 5 3rds 16
Flames 3 1st 6 2nds 2 3rds 11

and that is before the Flames took a pass on the 2018 draft

These 4 teams all are missing their 2108 1st round pick. The difference is that they have deep teams and a deep pipeline and the draft pick they traded away was specifically for this playoff run and was 99% certain that it would be a 24 or higher overall pick when they traded it.

There are no examples of successful re-builds by trading draft picks for immediate help.

You've looked through NHL history then? That seems pretty far fetched given the terms "immediate help" and "re-build" are so subjective to begin with.

But you know what I don't care.

The Flames have done a heck of a job adding talent in the years under Brad Treliving. The 15-17 drafts added Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Takchuk, Parsons, Dube, Fox, Phillips, Valimaki and intriguing players like Ruzicka and Joly.

When he moved picks he added Hamilton and Hamonic.

Building teams comes from drafting, developing, free agent signings, and deft trades.

You shouldn't hold any rebuild to a rule. Every situation is different.

You can choose to believe Treliving knows what he's doing, or not, that's up to you. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt though.

When you have a young core emerging and a pretty full prospect cupboard it's generally time to add to the core so you don't draft so far behind it that they don't add to the window you're trying to open.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

You've looked through NHL history then? That seems pretty far fetched given the terms "immediate help" and "re-build" are so subjective to begin with.

But you know what I don't care.

The Flames have done a heck of a job adding talent in the years under Brad Treliving. The 15-17 drafts added Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Takchuk, Parsons, Dube, Fox, Phillips, Valimaki and intriguing players like Ruzicka and Joly.

When he moved picks he added Hamilton and Hamonic.

Building teams comes from drafting, developing, free agent signings, and deft trades.

You shouldn't hold any rebuild to a rule. Every situation is different.

You can choose to believe Treliving knows what he's doing, or not, that's up to you. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt though.

When you have a young core emerging and a pretty full prospect cupboard it's generally time to add to the core so you don't draft so far behind it that they don't add to the window you're trying to open.

Is the prospect cupboard you listed better than any of the prospect groups of the teams Ricardo listed?

Do the Flames have a single player as good as any of the picks made by those teams?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is the prospect cupboard you listed better than any of the prospect groups of the teams Ricardo listed?

Do the Flames have a single player as good as any of the picks made by those teams?

He named the best 5 teams in hockey!

You have to walk before you can trot and then run. Would be pretty hard to argue the Flames prospect base hasn't improved in the last three years and that's with moving three picks for Hamilton and graduating first round picks straight to the show in two of the three years.

That's progress.

[Flash Walken]

lol, bingo, they are the best teams in hockey because in the last 4 years they've all drafted elite players into their lineups at a greater rate than the Flames have.

Like, seriously here, LOL.

Is it just a coincidence in your mind that the best teams in the league have all drafted more frequently in the top 3 rounds in the last 4 years than the Flames have?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

lol, bingo, they are the best teams in hockey because in the last 4 years they've all drafted elite players into their lineups at a greater rate than the Flames have.

Like, seriously here, LOL.

Is it just a coincidence in your mind that the best teams in the league have all drafted more frequently in the top 3 rounds in the last 4 years than the Flames have?

Two LOL's? Seriously?

I tip my hat to those organizations, but is the narrative that Treliving and the Flames have to be in the top four or they suck?

I think they're made some pretty good progress and spelled it out. Just because you have a more negative view towards things (and you're welcome to said views) shouldn't make it funny that I don't see it the way you do.

Don't find it funny at all.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

lol, bingo, they are the best teams in hockey because in the last 4 years they've all drafted elite players into their lineups at a greater rate than the Flames have.

Actually, they are the best teams in hockey because of drafting more than four years ago. Though in the case of Boston and Winnipeg especially, recent home runs sure helped. Tampa and Nashville have not produced more impact players or regulars than Calgary has in the same period though. Less if you give credit for adding Hamilton in place of a first rounder.

That's why ricardodw's "analysis" is being mocked.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

...Do the Flames have a single player as good as any of the picks made by those teams?

My god. Seriously?

Nashville has drafted some great defensemen, but take a look at their forward group: Johanson? Acquired in a trade. Turris? Acquired in a trade. Bonino? Signed as a UFA. They hit a home run with Arvidsson—who is NOT better than every Flames forward—but even their leading scorer and only truly elite sniper, Filip Forsberg, was acquired in a trade.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Two LOL's? Seriously?

I tip my hat to those organizations, but is the narrative that Treliving and the Flames have to be in the top four or they suck?

I think they're made some pretty good progress and spelled it out. Just because you have a more negative view towards things (and you're welcome to said views) shouldn't make it funny that I don't see it the way you do.

Don't find it funny at all.

Bingo you have taken a contrary position.

IMHO it is accepted practice that you build through the draft. There are numerous examples where this has been driven home: Kessel picked up to kick start a bubble Leaf team. Ernie Hickey for 1st overall Guy Lafluer. McCabe traded for Chicago 1st round pick (one of the Sedins) letting Chicago wander in the wilderness for another 5 years.

You have to expect that there would be a bit of questioning of your logic.

It says a lot for the high regard (following) that you have on your message board that you are able to maintain support for the un-conventional position you have taken on draft picks for players.

I feel that I would be soundly ridiculed if suggesting Valamaki , Dube and Andersen for Hoffman would work out for the Flames.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Two LOL's? Seriously?

I tip my hat to those organizations, but is the narrative that Treliving and the Flames have to be in the top four or they suck?

I think they're made some pretty good progress and spelled it out. Just because you have a more negative view towards things (and you're welcome to said views) shouldn't make it funny that I don't see it the way you do.

Don't find it funny at all.

The narrative is the Flames have to be one of the best drafting organizations in the league to be one of the best teams in the league in a given year. The examples of the best drafting teams over the last 5 years all happen to be the best teams in the league.

Do you think that is a coincidence? Can you asnwer Ricardo's point about showing an example of a team that has successfully built their organization by trading draft picks for immediate help?

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Actually, they are the best teams in hockey because of drafting more than four years ago. Though in the case of Boston and Winnipeg especially, recent home runs sure helped. Tampa and Nashville have not produced more impact players or regulars than Calgary has in the same period though. Less if you give credit for adding Hamilton in place of a first rounder.

That's why ricardodw's "analysis" is being mocked.

Drafted Goals in the last 4 drafts:

Calgary: 79 (if you include dougie which I don't, 121)
Jets: 187
Tampa: 60
Boston: 148
Nashville: 142

So even if you DO include Dougie's goals, the Flames are still lagging behind the best teams in the league, and those teams also happen to be getting that scoring from ELC contracts which allows them to spend a ####load of money on top tier veterans so they don't have to blow their team up. Those teams ALSO happen to have had significant playoff success in those years (save the jets of course who lo and behold happen to find themselves in the second round of the playoffs against last year's cup runner up.

Is the goal here to just be better than Edmonton or is the goal to assemble a talent level that can compete with the best teams in the league.

[Textcritic]

I don't see anyone taking a contrary position here, and pretty much all of us would agree that successful teams are built through the draft. The Flames ARE BUILDING THROUGH THE DRAFT. Six or seven of their top-nine forwards this year were drafted by the Flames. They can likely afford to move a defenseman this summer precisely because they have drafted players that look ready to add to the blue line.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Ricardo’s point? Does he ever make a comprehensible point? The guy spews pure nonsense on the regular. It’s a fools errand to try and debate with Ricardo.