[PGT] Jackets 5 Flames 1

[Cali Panthers Fan]

^ I sort of view it the same way. I think we have some great top line players, and some decent bottom roster players (not great, but solid) and then nothing in between which leads to a lack of secondary scoring. If I'm evaluating the roster for next year, I have the depth chart like this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Tkachuk
???-Backlund-???
Bennett-Jankowski-Frolik
Ferland-Lazar-Brouwer

extras/AHL depth: Shore, Dube, Mangiapane, Foo

Our defense is less of a problem:

Giordano-Hamilton
Brodie-Hamonic
Kulak-Stone
Kylington-Andersson
Valimaki

We could probably trade 1 or 2 established NHL defensemen and be relatively ok. We have no significant prospects ready to step into a top 6 offensive role, and we have no draft pick this year to put someone like that in the farm system.

I hate to say this, but we NEED to trade from a place of strength, and that's our defense group. I think you have to move someone like Brodie because he could get you the biggest return for an offensive forward. I also think that Brodie just needs a change of scenery at this point because his game has regressed for 2 years straight, and don't give me any of that BS about Gulutzan's system or playing on his left comfortable side. He just hasn't been as good, full stop.

[DeluxeMoustache]

^ Brodie regression not tied to Gulutzan?

Brodie’s strength is his mobility.
Hartley liked adding the D to the rush. He felt the 4th player tipped the usual 3 on 3
Hartley didn’t like backward passes by the D, as Sarich complained about. Hartley basically pushed that once you got the puck, you immediately transition to offense

Brodie has been worse for 2 years
Gulutzan has been here for 2 years

Watch the Flames breakouts. They are not playing to catch the opponent flat footed. The D to D pass, or the long pass from behind the net to past center, a slow measured transition game.

I am with you on the side of the ice, though. He was good on the right with Gio and the left with Engelland.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Pube bet that.

The inner 12 year olds are just crawling out of the woodwork today.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by New Era

The inner 12 year olds are just crawling out of the woodwork today.

Meh, I was just working off the theme that nik laid down.

[nik-]

It's a motif, #######.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Brodie has been worse for 2 years
Gulutzan has been here for 2 years

Why do people keep saying this when it is not true? I know it does not fit your narrative but Brodie was a pile of hot garbage in Hartley's last year, he has been bad for three seasons now.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

^ I sort of view it the same way. I think we have some great top line players, and some decent bottom roster players (not great, but solid) and then nothing in between which leads to a lack of secondary scoring. If I'm evaluating the roster for next year, I have the depth chart like this:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Tkachuk
???-Backlund-???
Bennett-Jankowski-Frolik
Ferland-Lazar/Shore-Brouwer

extras/AHL depth: Shore, Dube, Mangiapane, Foo

Our defense is less of a problem:

Giordano-Hamilton
Brodie-Hamonic
Kulak-Stone
Kylington-Andersson
Valimaki

I see things a little differently.

Gaudreau-Monahan-???
Bennett-Jankowski-Tkachuk
???-Backlund-Frolik
Ferland-Lazar-Brouwer

Here's my reasoning.

I still think that the Flames are a forward short in the top six, and that forward is a player that can keep up with Gaudreau. I have a couple options in mind, but I think this is a slot that needs to be filled through a hockey trade. Unless someone surprises in camp, I think that player is from outside our system. I actually would have liked to see Foo given a chance down the stretch, because I think he has the right skill set, but with the other two out it is impossible to see what we have there.

Bennett & Tkachuk play a very similar game, and I think they would thrive off of one another. Jankowski reads the play very well, is good at getting to the scoring areas, and is just damn solid in the middle, so I see this as a very solid second line. They only managed to play together a few times this winter, and I recall two gorgeous goals where they fired the puck around with really quick effective passes. They are a puck possession line in the making, and a line that can still create offense off the rush.

If Backlund really is a Selke quality player, this is where he needs to be. He needs to be paired up with his buddy Frolik and given the shutdown role. The LW needs to be a guy who can be defensively responsible and learn from Backlund. I like Dube in that slot, but he has to earn that role. I think there are options on the farm for this position, which would make camp interesting.

I'm not sold on Lazar, but would be okay with him in this role. He reminds me of a less talent Paul Ranheim, and with less speed. I'd be fine with platooning the centers here and seeing what you have. The most important thing here is not being afraid to make changes and shuffle players from the minors to the big club, and using the 4th line as the gulag for poor performance.

I'm still a huge proponent of moving Brodie for help up front. I'd love to see Nyqvist or Hoffman or even Grabner as an experienced player, or go off the board and angle for a young guy like Christian Fischer (AZ), Ryan Hartman (NSH), or Alex Tuch (VGK). An interesting move might be to make a deal for Hoffman and eat Ryan at the same time, for the benefit of gaining extra value for our assets going the other way. Might be able to squeeze an extra draft pick out of the mix for example. We have the space, it might be worth the gamble to see if Ryan can find his groove again.

It is going to be a very interesting off season. I hope they start it off right, keeping the fans interested, by making the coaching change, then making a deal at the draft giving us some hope for next season.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

Same here. Some seasons have been baaad. But none quite like this. Unbelievable.

And not a word from senior management or ownership.

For the first time ever I feel like the whole organization has completely thrown the towel and have zero interest in the rest of the season, and it started with 10 or so games still left in the season.

It's infuriating to me. People still pay for tickets. There's plenty of people in every game to whom seeing Flames live is a really rare opportunity. There's always somebody seeing the team play live for the first time. 10 games is a big chunk of the season. The way the team is playing should be unacceptable, especially as we don't even have to worry about worsening our draft odds.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Bingo

There literally isn't a single statistic that supports that.

You can look at scoring chance totals, high danger splits ... the heat map shows the Flames taking shots from the low to high slot all night while the Jackets barely got near Gillies.

I just don't get this narrative, it never goes away./

The Flames haven't been a finishing team all season, and its exasperated when you take most of their talented players out of the game.

But to say they were boxed out, shot from a distance and didn't try is a huge stretch.

There's enough to be depressed about without adding horror fiction to the discussion.

I'm honestly puzzled how you still think those stats are in any way a relevant measuring stick. This season is really about as close you can get a definite proof that the current shot stats are crap when it comes to estimating overall team performance or things like actual scoring chances or "possession".

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why do people keep saying this when it is not true? I know it does not fit your narrative but Brodie was a pile of hot garbage in Hartley's last year, he has been bad for three seasons now.

Because... facts?

Hot garbage - 45 points career high in 70 games and plus 4

Enter Gul - points in the 30s and -16 2 years running

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Or just become hyperdefensive, that's fine too, Bingo.

But keep one thing in mind. While Corsi and "high danger" scoring chances are objective counters (insofar as they can be given a human somewhere determines whether or not it was a shot attempt in the first place), they are simply objective counters that measure shot location. They don't actually measure shot quality.

When we call CF% a measure of possession and HDSC a measure of quality, we're extrapolating. And that is inherently subjective.

So when push comes to shove, we're both seeing the same stats, and we're both asking why the results aren't there.

You've concluded it is mostly it bad luck, perhaps with some LOFT thrown in. My observations are that it is a bad system (and right now in particular, a whole bunch of LOFT and a give-a-crap meter running on empty). But IMO, the reason we are so high on missed and blocked shot charts is because systemically, our goal is to cautiously gain the zone and pepper the net. Other teams recognize this and give us exactly what we want - a bunch of quantity - while focused on shutting down the quality.

Disagree with me if you like, but your conclusions are no more objective than mine.

I don't think responding to a guy that suggests I only look at spreadsheets and that your eye test is superior is hyper defensive.

I don't make conclusions. I have always admitted there isn't a way to measure the degree of high danger chances within the box, and I've read everything I can on correlation between scoring chances and results and high danger and results.

I watch every game intently, and I even point out the ones that match the eye test and the ones that don't.

You're wrong about last night. They had lots of great chances that either went wide or didn't go in. If you were on a soap box talking about a lack of finish, or that the Jacket scoring chances were superior I probably wouldn't have had a problem.

But you boiled it down to two offensive shifts, getting boxed out and shooting from the perimeter which is completely false and quite easy to disprove with stats and the eye test.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Itse

I'm honestly puzzled how you still think those stats are in any way a relevant measuring stick. This season is really about as close you can get a definite proof that the current shot stats are crap when it comes to estimating overall team performance or things like actual scoring chances or "possession".

So you agree with him that the Flames had only two offensive shifts last night, and the rest was lofting pucks from the boards?

Ok ...

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you agree with him that the Flames had only two offensive shifts last night, and the rest was lofting pucks from the boards?

Ok ...

No, but I seriously think your point is just as irrelevant at this point. Hyperbolic venting is what it is, but those stats are little more than irrelevant noise too.

[Resolute 14]

I said "sustained offensive flurries", Bingo. At least be honest enough to disagree with the argument that was actually made.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why do people keep saying this when it is not true? I know it does not fit your narrative but Brodie was a pile of hot garbage in Hartley's last year, he has been bad for three seasons now.

Lol What?

Brodie was the best defenseman in the Pacific Division that year. Had he played all 82 games he would have outscored Drew Doughty who won the Norris yet wasn't as dominant. He consistently outplayed Mark Giordano who had an off-year despite career goalscoring numbers. He outscored Vlasic/Lindholm and was far more complete than Burns. He was far less dependent on power play overusage than OEL.

That was the best year of Brodie's career. He dominated whether he was playing with Russell, Giordano, or Hamilton.

If you want to say Brodie was relatively awful after Giordano went down in 2014-15 maybe you might have a point (even though he was our best player in the playoffs fullstop and clearly not the issue on his pair). If you want to say Brodie's results were awful when paired with Wideman last year you might have a point (even though he dominated playing with Stone and dominated in the playoffs and his plusminus had more to do with Chad Johnson's soft goals than actual individual errors). If you want to say the Brodie Hamonic pairing has been an utter disaster you might have a point(even though common sense says to try something different). if you want to say Mike Smith and TJ Brodie can't coexist or Glen Gulutzan and TJ Brodie can't coexist you might have a point.

But to say that the best year of Brodie's career was anything short of awesome is just... dumbfounding. And to call it "a pile of hot garbage"? Absolute revisionist history. We get it, you want Brodie gone.

But his struggles did not start in the best year of his damn career.

[dammage79]

Honest question, because from what I have seen the actual number is abysmally low, but how many quality secondary chances did the Flames have last night?

How many times was there a shot where Bobrovsky had to actually consider where the secondary scoring chance was coming from if he let out a rebound. I can think of three. And that's being generous.

Another question. How many of those 27 shots in the first two periods were o e and done where the shooter had zero forward support in front of him? I can think of of maybe five or six and those were spead out pretty far apart.

From what I saw, the Flames generally weren't in any position to legitimately threaten any sort of consistent scoring pressure. There were a few but man they were tough to develop.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I said "sustained offensive flurries", Bingo. At least be honest enough to disagree with the argument that was actually made.

Now I'm dishonest?

Dude relax ... I didn't copy and paste your comment and regurgitated what I thought your general theme was.

That's not dishonesty.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Honest question, because from what I have seen the actual number is abysmally low, but how many quality secondary chances did the Flames have last night?

How many times was there a shot where Bobrovsky had to actually consider where the secondary scoring chance was coming from if he let out a rebound. I can think of three. And that's being generous.

Another question. How many of those 27 shots in the first two periods were o e and done where the shooter had zero forward support in front of him? I can think of of maybe five or six and those were spead out pretty far apart.

Not many for sure.

But that doesn't necessarily speak to the quality of the initial chance.

Gillies was beat four times on initial shots that didn't require rebounds because the light was already flashing.

When Bobvrovsky slides across and takes down a Sam Bennett slap shot with his glove the play is over. It doesn't mean the chance was any less because there wasn't a rebound ... the goal tending took away the secondary chance completely.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Itse

No, but I seriously think your point is just as irrelevant at this point. Hyperbolic venting is what it is, but those stats are little more than irrelevant noise too.

What is my point exactly?

I'm not sure I made one.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What is my point exactly?

I'm not sure I made one.

I think you are trying to say the Flames are a better team than the results show. I doubt many would agree with this, and even if they did it doesn't matter the results are terrible. So the coaching staff can continue down the same path and fail, or recognize that the style of play doesn't win many hockey games.