[GDT] Flames @ Senators, 5:30 PM MST. Sportsnet West, Fan 960

[colbym72]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I can’t think of any other sport that considers shooting percentage to be based on luck.

Like the guy on your rec league basketball team that is jacking up shots all the time. It’s not bad luck that he keeps missing.

I get that luck is a factor in scoring in hockey but seems weird to me to attribute shooting percentage solely to that.

Agreed, but I think if you are generating the most chances (however HDC are defined), you should be at least in the top half of the league

[Karl]

Originally Posted by colbym72

Agreed, but I think if you are generating the most chances (however HDC are defined), you should be at least in the top half of the league

Not if you don't have the skill to finish.

[TheIronMaiden]

IMO Stajan is laying it all on the line, he knows that these are probably his last 14 games in the NHL and its his last chance at a playoff run. Having a player like that on your roster, a guy who is loved like he is, gives the whole team something to play for.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

IMO Stajan is laying it all on the line, he knows that these are probably his last 14 games in the NHL and its his last chance at a playoff run. Having a player like that on your roster, a guy who is loved like he is, gives the whole team something to play for.

And he's looked way less done since the year flipped to 2018. In fact he's actually been playing pretty well more often than not since the year flipped over.

[Locke]

Another team who've pulled the chute on their season, which Flames team do we get?

The Flames who come out flat, unprepared and go down early, or the Flames who play to win?

[Karl]

Originally Posted by gunnner

Disagree. Would only put him in over Stagan.

Disagree. I'd put him in over Hathaway, if anybody right now.

I'm at a loss to explain what Hathaway has done in the last month and a half or so to remain a regular in the lineup.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by colbym72

Agreed, but I think if you are generating the most chances (however HDC are defined), you should be at least in the top half of the league

I agree with you. There are obviously a lot of things going on and it would certainly seem bad luck is playing a part.

I look forward to the day when hockey's "advanced stats" will actually be advanced and not just counting shots. Factoring in offensive zone time, distance from defender, shot velocity, shot placement, time puck is on stick or better ideas I'm unable to think of.

Hockey is more convoluted but think of baseball where for hitters for example, they now measure exit velocity and launch angle compared to putting balls in play.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I agree with you. There are obviously a lot of things going on and it would certainly seem bad luck is playing a part.



I look forward to the day when hockey's "advanced stats" will actually be advanced and not just counting shots. Factoring in offensive zone time, distance from defender, shot velocity, shot placement, time puck is on stick or better ideas I'm unable to think of.



Hockey is more convoluted but think of baseball where for hitters for example, they now measure exit velocity and launch angle compared to putting balls in play.

To me shooting % is super useful as a determinant of luck, but only when it’s used at the individual player level relative to their long term norms.

In this case we could look at ie. Monahan’s long term average % on the PP, and compare it to this year’s numbers (do they even track PP SOGs?).

Doing that for all the main PP1 players would be super useful IMO to tell if this is unlucky or they just aren’t that skilled.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Karl

Disagree. I'd put him in over Hathaway, if anybody right now.

I'm at a loss to explain what Hathaway has done in the last month and a half or so to remain a regular in the lineup.

It's the same as we saw in Hathaway's callup last year. Effective the first little bit then completely fizzles out. Obviously this year we was more effective than last, and for a little longer, but once again he eventually stopped playing the way that makes him effective

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by heep223

To me shooting % is super useful as a determinant of luck, but only when it’s used at the individual player level relative to their long term norms.

In this case we could look at ie. Monahan’s long term average % on the PP, and compare it to this year’s numbers (do they even track PP SOGs?).

Doing that for all the main PP1 players would be super useful IMO to tell if this is unlucky or they just aren’t that skilled.

Good point. But I suppose just like batting average, I would expect variants in shooting percentage from year to year and even trending in a direction over time.

So a large increase or decrease in shooting % vs. career average in a year may signal an aberration, smaller differences may signal actual improvement or decline in a player's ability to score.

And unlike batting average, a player can adapt their style to give them more or fewer shot attempts, or difference in quality of attempts.

So it just seems there is a lot going on.

[CsInMyBlood]

Hathaway brings so much more than points, that points are just a bonus.

He is a solid two-way player, a shift disturber and penalty drawer. Non stop motor and will drop the gloves. Gives the team much needed grit. Way rather have him in the lineup than Shore, Stajan or Lazar.

Hits every game. Second in hits on the team. 123 hits in 45 games. Ferland leads with 141 in 63 games.

Not sure what people are expecting with Hathaway, but I'd suggest watching the games over checking the stats.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Hathaway brings so much more than points, that points are just a bonus.

He is a solid two-way player, a shift disturber and penalty drawer. Non stop motor and will drop the gloves. Gives the team much needed grit. Way rather have him in the lineup than Shore, Stajan or Lazar.

Hits every game. Second in hits on the team. 123 hits in 45 games. Ferland leads with 141 in 63 games.

Not sure what people are expecting with Hathaway, but I'd suggest watching the games over checking the stats.

Does he even do that much anymore though? Maybe it is just me, I have missed a few games recently, but I recall him trying to play more of a skill game rather than doing what got him here.

I could be wrong, it's not like I've been watching him super closely

[Karl]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Does he even do that much anymore though? Maybe it is just me, I have missed a few games recently, but I recall him trying to play more of a skill game rather than doing what got him here.

I could be wrong, it's not like I've been watching him super closely

He does, but he just hasn't been effective at any other part of hockey very much over the last while.

[dissentowner]

Need to get on a roll, the OOT never seems to help so they are going to have to be one of the top teams in this last stretch.

[browna]

I think we get the same Flames from last game, and honestly the same ones that we have had the last 4 or 5 games, that had been let down by poor goaltending. Concerted effort against Buf to to take risks which would give up the chances that they assumed their goalie would have to make decent saves on.

Really can’t slip up in the next 4,but confidence is high and should be high. 2 points, however possible.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

Hathaway brings so much more than points, that points are just a bonus.

He is a solid two-way player, a shift disturber and penalty drawer. Non stop motor and will drop the gloves. Gives the team much needed grit. Way rather have him in the lineup than Shore, Stajan or Lazar.

Hits every game. Second in hits on the team. 123 hits in 45 games. Ferland leads with 141 in 63 games.

Not sure what people are expecting with Hathaway, but I'd suggest watching the games over checking the stats.

I watch every game. Hathaway's non stop motor is stalling a bit lately. His defence was lacking, for sure last game (he was slow to the puck a few times), and he's been pretty unnoticeable in the offensive zone, on a night when the rest of his line was going great. The guy that dropped the gloves last game was Lazar, who plays with plenty of grit and had four hits to Hathaway's one, with less ice time. I haven't seen Hathaway draw a penalty in ages. Shore is a PK specialist I hear. I think he's generally more useful, because he can take RH faceoffs as well.

[Kidder]

I keep looking at the Rangers game as the one that officially dashed my hopes.

The Rangers have thrown in the towel since the new year. Coming in to last Friday’s game the Rangers had four wins in their last 18 games. Four. Oh and one of those four victories? Calgary when they visited MSG.

The thrashing against Buffalo was a good sign the Flames haven’t fully given up yet. But if they wanted to make the playoffs, home to the Rangers was a game they could not drop.

[TheScorpion]

Yeah, I've just about had it with Hathaway. I'd rather see Stewart or Shore given another look before Versteeg gets back.

[OminousFlames]

Go Flames Go! Let's get win #2 of this up and coming big winning streak!

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yeah, I've just about had it with Hathaway. I'd rather see Stewart or Shore given another look before Versteeg gets back.

Stewart's speed and size could be helpful on that line (but his defence is terrible and while Bennett and Jankowski are usually responsible they are prone to the odd gaffe).

Shore would really add a lot of sound defensive play. He's a pretty good passer and I think he also has decent speed. I always thought he played well when I saw him with the Kings.