Mmm. No. The Flames of last year—a "playoff calibre team"—managed to lose all four of their games against the Edmonton Oilers. If the Flames lose tonight, there is no good reason to believe that they will not be in the playoffs in April. Chances remain high that they will get there regardless of tonight's result.
I get it. It is emotional because of who the Oilers are and the long history between these two teams. But like it or not, most players in today's NHL are not nearly as invested in these rivalries as fans—it's not like it was in the 1980s and 'nineties, and it never will be again. That is not to say that players don't care—it is to say that they don't care a lot more about winning this game than they did about winning against the Kings last night.
In the end, if the Flames are good enough on the balance of the schedule to make the playoffs they will—regardless of how well or poorly they play in games against the Oilers. In a seven game playoff series with a team other than the Oilers—who will not be there, the Flames' performance against Edmonton will have virtually no bearing AT ALL on the outcome.
Connecting the collective fate of the team and coaches to their fortunes within this single series of games is becoming tiresome, because one really does not have anything to do with the other. This is not an acceptance of "mediocrity" as I will undoubtedly be accused of for this post. It is a sober recognition that there is a much, MUCH bigger picture here.
Giving up two points to the Kings last night could have way more playoff implications than anything that happens tonight. I'm weirdly nervous for tonight because I'm tired of the Flames being embarrassed by the Oilers but the truth is this game is just another game.
It has approximately the same playoff implications as playing an Eastern Conference team.
How the Flames can exploit the 3rd guy high in the Oilers PK
The Oilers employ a "one F high, three low" strategy on their penalty kill. On paper it should work well - the aim is to funnel the puck to the outside as much as possible and prevent high danger scoring chances from inside the slot. One forward pressures while the other shrinks back to protect the slot, and they switch spots when the puck moves to their end of the ice.
The problem is, your PKing forwards need to be fast(yes), and have good enough defensive acumen (hell no) to recognize when to switch spots. If they fail to do so, which happens fairly often because they're the Oilers, an entire side of the ice opens up.
It's bad enough for them that Tenderness has lost his stick here (effectively making him close to useless in this role), but Khaira also doesn't even start moving his feet until the puck is already in motion. Once he does that, the slot opens up.
Last night, Eichel was able to use this to his advantage. He baited Kassian to overcommit to him and get it to Ristolainen with all the time in the world, leaving Letestu in no-man's-land acting as nothing more than a screen as the puck squirts past Talbot. If Ristolainen felt that he didn't have a good shot, Reinhart was wide open as well.
Later that game, Ristolainen returns the favor and dishes to Eichel for a nicely sniped goal with plenty of time for a look... while The Tenderness has no clue what to do, Pakarinen overcommits as usual, and Nurse is in no-man's-land screening his goalie.
Once in a while, both forwards just completely lose their #### and BOTH overcommit, turning a 5 on 4 into a 5 on 2, and this happens. Immensely satisfying to see who the culprits were.
__________________
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How the Flames can exploit the 3rd guy high in the Oilers PK
The Oilers employ a "one F high, three low" strategy on their penalty kill. On paper it should work well - the aim is to funnel the puck to the outside as much as possible and prevent high danger scoring chances from inside the slot. One forward pressures while the other shrinks back to protect the slot, and they switch spots when the puck moves to their end of the ice.
The problem is, your PKing forwards need to be fast(yes), and have good enough defensive acumen (hell no) to recognize when to switch spots. If they fail to do so, which happens fairly often because they're the Oilers, an entire side of the ice opens up.
It's bad enough for them that Tenderness has lost his stick here (effectively making him close to useless in this role), but Khaira also doesn't even start moving his feet until the puck is already in motion. Once he does that, the slot opens up.
Last night, Eichel was able to use this to his advantage. He baited Kassian to overcommit to him and get it to Ristolainen with all the time in the world, leaving Letestu in no-man's-land acting as nothing more than a screen as the puck squirts past Talbot. If Ristolainen felt that he didn't have a good shot, Reinhart was wide open as well.
Later that game, Ristolainen returns the favor and dishes to Eichel for a nicely sniped goal with plenty of time for a look... while The Tenderness has no clue what to do, Pakarinen overcommits as usual, and Nurse is in no-man's-land screening his goalie.
Once in a while, both forwards just completely lose their #### and BOTH overcommit, turning a 5 on 4 into a 5 on 2, and this happens. Immensely satisfying to see who the culprits were.
haha like cameron is going to identify any of this.
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Once in a while, both forwards just completely lose their #### and BOTH overcommit, turning a 5 on 4 into a 5 on 2, and this happens. Immensely satisfying to see who the culprits were.
That's not the forwards losing their ####, that's how McDavid plays defense - at centre ice.
FORWARDS
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Micheal Ferland
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Troy Brouwer
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Ryan Lomberg - Matt Stajan - Curtis Lazar
DEFENCE
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
TJ Brodie - Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak - Michael Stone
GOALTENDER
David Rittich
Lomberg in for Hrivik as most would have guessed.
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FORWARDS
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Micheal Ferland
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Troy Brouwer
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Garnet Hathaway
Ryan Lomberg - Matt Stajan - Curtis Lazar
DEFENCE
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
TJ Brodie - Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak - Michael Stone
GOALTENDER
David Rittich
Lomberg in for Hrivik as most would have guessed.
Fourth line is pretty sandy.
Flames win if McDavid is shadowed well and the third line pots a goal.
Mmm. No. The Flames of last year—a "playoff calibre team"—managed to lose all four of their games against the Edmonton Oilers. If the Flames lose tonight, there is no good reason to believe that they will not be in the playoffs in April. Chances remain high that they will get there regardless of tonight's result.
I get it. It is emotional because of who the Oilers are and the long history between these two teams. But like it or not, most players in today's NHL are not nearly as invested in these rivalries as fans—it's not like it was in the 1980s and 'nineties, and it never will be again. That is not to say that players don't care—it is to say that they don't care a lot more about winning this game than they did about winning against the Kings last night.
In the end, if the Flames are good enough on the balance of the schedule to make the playoffs they will—regardless of how well or poorly they play in games against the Oilers. In a seven game playoff series with a team other than the Oilers—who will not be there, the Flames' performance against Edmonton will have virtually no bearing AT ALL on the outcome.
Connecting the collective fate of the team and coaches to their fortunes within this single series of games is becoming tiresome, because one really does not have anything to do with the other. This is not an acceptance of "mediocrity" as I will undoubtedly be accused of for this post. It is a sober recognition that there is a much, MUCH bigger picture here.
The Oilers last season were not essentially an AHL squad like they are this year. However, if they had managed to win some of those games, they might not have had to face the Ducks and suffered a much different fate than a 4-0 sweep in round #1. Games like this really do matter, especially now, since the 2018 Oilers are stains in the toilet bowl.
Clinging to some flawed logic that this result tonight is meaningless is nothing more than severe hometown bias. Four consecutive ho-hum efforts, with all but one game against a team you can consider to be playing at a high level would be beyond crushing for a team coming off of what should have been a significant turning point. If the Flames can muster their best effort at this stage of the season, they quite simply do not have what it takes to be a playoff team in my eyes. It's about the character of the team at this point, much more than it will ever be about the 2 points.
__________________
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Last edited by Hot_Flatus; 01-25-2018 at 02:29 PM.
Giving up two points to the Kings last night could have way more playoff implications than anything that happens tonight. I'm weirdly nervous for tonight because I'm tired of the Flames being embarrassed by the Oilers but the truth is this game is just another game.
It has approximately the same playoff implications as playing an Eastern Conference team.
This.
Barring a collapse by the Flames and a few other western teams, the Oilers are about as relevant to the Flames’ playoff aspirations as the Sabres. Not the end of the world if the Flames lose, unless it’s the start of an even longer losing streak.
And unfortunately, as their biggest rival, we’re also playing them right after an embarrassing loss, and an even more embarrassing reaming out by their press/fanbase and probably their coaches. Putting all this together, the Greasers should be, and probably will be, more fired up and motivated than they’ve been all season. I’ll be delighted if the Flames can overcome this, but the likelihood is probably well below 50%, even though the Greasers are the lesser team.
Last edited by Steve Bozek; 01-25-2018 at 02:28 PM.
