The trials and tribulations of Glen Gulutzan

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by nemanja2306

Funny you didn't bring up results when the Flames were on that 2-5 run.


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He did several times pointing out that the Flames were playing well even if the results were not there yet.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Backlunds_socks

I agree that this is indeed the case with equities and commodities, not sports teams.

No my point was results are frozen and history the second they are recorded, they don't project anything.

If you don't agree with the numbers that to me suggest they are playing better and building something, that's fine. But results aren't a better way to project the direction a commodity, an equity or a sports team.

Aren't you a Flames fan? Don't you like to see a suggestion that they are getting things together? Or do you dislike the coach so much that you don't want to see positives? That's not a fun place to be dude

[Backlunds_socks]

Originally Posted by Bingo

No my point was results are frozen and history the second they are recorded, they don't project anything.

If you don't agree with the numbers that to me suggest they are playing better and building something, that's fine. But results aren't a better way to project the direction a commodity, an equity or a sports team.

Aren't you a Flames fan? Don't you like to see a suggestion that they are getting things together? Or do you dislike the coach so much that you don't want to see positives? That's not a fun place to be dude

I saw the exact same song and dance last year.

It’s not the coach, advanced stats.. etc

GG has zero track record, I just don’t trust th fellah

[sempuki]

Originally Posted by Backlunds_socks

I saw the exact same song and dance last year.

It’s not the coach, advanced stats.. etc

GG has zero track record, I just don’t trust th fellah

That's an interesting opinion, and you're welcome to it -- it is after all an opinion site, but at what point does it become beating a dead horse? You know of course that none of us have any control over the team or the games, and frankly neither should we. Part of the draw of spectator sport is investing in a stochastic process where losing is as real as winning, so that winning has meaning.

At what point do you realize you're consenting to watch a kids game, and just enjoy the ####ing ride??

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Backlunds_socks

I saw the exact same song and dance last year.



It’s not the coach, advanced stats.. etc



GG has zero track record, I just don’t trust th fellah

... but we’re doing significantly better to start the season than last year. Personally, I find this song and dance much better.... also, the last sentence in your post is really all anyone needs to know about your opinions on GG.


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[AC]

Backlunds_socks also has stated every player is regressing under Gulutzan.

Meanwhile our top line are all off to career starts so far...

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Bingo

...Aren't you a Flames fan? Don't you like to see a suggestion that they are getting things together?...

Come on. Backlund_sucks is NOT a Flames fan.

[---Hatrick---]

Backlunds socks is a very depressing Flames fan lol. In a time that is very exciting for Flames fans, why cant you just be a little bit excited man? Didn't we start last season 5-10-1 or something?
Much better start this season. Jagr is a flame, Gaudreau seems to have found his game (plus some), Jankowski is on the team, Smith is playing unreal!

[---Hatrick---]

Backlunds socks is a very depressing Flames fan lol. In a time that is very exciting for Flames fans, why cant you just be a little bit excited man? Didn't we start last season 5-10-1 or something?
Much better start this season. Jagr is a flame, Gaudreau seems to have found his game (plus some), Jankowski is on the team, Smith is playing unreal!

[blender]

Backlund_Socks is a classic contrarian cynic. It is a very popular position to take on the Internet these days.

[Iggy Snipe]

Gulutzan has been a terrific coach so far. Last season he coached the Flames back into the playoffs, and if it were not for the worst goaltending I have ever seen, the Flames would have fared better.

That being said, this season the Flames are playing even better. The top 6 have been good, and when the bottom 6 get going, the Flames will be lights out. Goaltending this year has been a positive, which is a breath of fresh air.

Anyone who doesn’t see that Gulutzan has done a great job, is out of their mind.

I didn’t know what to expect either when the Flames first hired him, but now I know he is a terrific coach and the players respect him and play hard for him.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

Gulutzan has been a terrific coach so far. Last season he coached the Flames back into the playoffs, and if it were not for the worst goaltending I have ever seen, the Flames would have fared better.

That being said, this season the Flames are playing even better. The top 6 have been good, and when the bottom 6 get going, the Flames will be lights out. Goaltending this year has been a positive, which is a breath of fresh air.

Anyone who doesn’t see that Gulutzan has done a great job, is out of their mind.

I didn’t know what to expect either when the Flames first hired him, but now I know he is a terrific coach and the players respect him and play hard for him.

That's a little insulting to anyone that disagrees with you (not that I entirely do). It's funny that you say he's done an excellent job because he has the top six playing well then state that once the bottom six get going they'll be better, lol.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Either way here is the Flames differentials this season. To me this is a team that has found it and are moving their way to some good results. I see patience, as things are coming.



They've been very good for the last eight games and have three or four stinkers in 15 games total this season. They could easily be 9-5-1 or something at this point with some puck luck.

Admittedly I didn't get to watch the last Flames game versus the Canucks, but the question/concern that I ask you about earlier (i.e. high quality scoring chances) has still remained in most of the recent games.

There's been a lot of talk about shooting percentage in this discussion, and whether Calgary's is unsustainably low and Tampa's is unsustainably high. Having watched a lot of Calgary's games and some of Tampa's games, to me the differences in office can be chalked up to two things: more elite finishers on Tampa's team, and a lot more High-quality chances. The lack of elite finishers (of which I only include Monahan on Calgary's side) falls on the shoulders of Treliving. As I've gone on about at length earlier in the year, he chose to spend a lot of resources making Calgary's rich defence even richer, and neglected their lack of scoring upfront. And I don't think Jagr was the answer to what ailed them - He still a great possession guy, but isn't going to be finishing a lot of plays from 20 feet out.

More relevant to this discussion though, is the fact that the Flames don't seem to be generating a lot of high quality scoring chances, even in those periods when they're getting a lot of good possession. Their powerplay is a prime culprit of this. Conversely, Tampa seems to be able to move the puck into dangerous areas with relative ease. Obviously, a team that throws a lot more pucks on net from low-quality areas is always going to have a very low shooting percentage, and is not going to regress to the mean if that doesn't change. The last time I brought this up, your research revealed that they were fourteenth in the league in high quality scoring chances for. What is the trend in that area?

Just as importantly, Calgary's vaunted defence (again, to my eye, without having advanced stats available) doesn't seem to be doing the expected elite job of preventing high quality scoring chances. Is that the case as per advanced stats? And what is the trend in that area?

These latter two areas, generating high quality scoring chances and preventing them, can be tied directly to coaching and the system put in place. And that's why Gulutzen has always failed the eyeball test with me – they just never seem to consistently transition from defence to offense and set up in the offensive zone. And too often cracks in their defence are exploited for good periods of possession and good chances against.

Finally, I'm surprised so many people are so accepting of this team still "going through a process of finding their game" and okay with the notion that they'll look like a team that shouldn't fire their coach by Christmas.

This is a Flames team that has which has its long term core completely locked up and healthy, and it's year 2 of Gulutzen's tenure. Not only that, but as I've said about the Oilers team last year, we could Currently be looking at the best flames roster were going to see in the next 3 to 5 years. With Backlund still on a reasonable contract, Tkachuk and Jankowski on their entry-level deals, etc., this could be the most talent the flames will ever be able to afford to ice. For people to be accepting of them muddling along at .500, even if they do trend better at some points, baffles me.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mike F

There's been a lot of talk about shooting percentage in this discussion, and whether Calgary's is unsustainably low and Tampa's is unsustainably high. Having watched a lot of Calgary's games and some of Tampa's games, to me the differences in office can be chalked up to two things: more elite finishers on Tampa's team, and a lot more High-quality chances. The lack of elite finishers (of which I only include Monahan on Calgary's side) falls on the shoulders of Treliving. As I've gone on about at length earlier in the year, he chose to spend a lot of resources making Calgary's rich defence even richer, and neglected their lack of scoring upfront. And I don't think Jagr was the answer to what ailed them - He still a great possession guy, but isn't going to be finishing a lot of plays from 20 feet out.

More relevant to this discussion though, is the fact that the Flames don't seem to be generating a lot of high quality scoring chances, even in those periods when they're getting a lot of good possession. Their powerplay is a prime culprit of this. Conversely, Tampa seems to be able to move the puck into dangerous areas with relative ease. Obviously, a team that throws a lot more pucks on net from low-quality areas is always going to have a very low shooting percentage, and is not going to regress to the mean if that doesn't change. The last time I brought this up, your research revealed that they were fourteenth in the league in high quality scoring chances for. What is the trend in that area?

Just as importantly, Calgary's vaunted defence (again, to my eye, without having advanced stats available) doesn't seem to be doing the expected elite job of preventing high quality scoring chances. Is that the case as per advanced stats? And what is the trend in that area?

These latter two areas, generating high quality scoring chances and preventing them, can be tied directly to coaching and the system put in place. And that's why Gulutzen has always failed the eyeball test with me – they just never seem to consistently transition from defence to offense and set up in the offensive zone. And too often cracks in their defence are exploited for good periods of possession and good chances against.

Finally, I'm surprised so many people are so accepting of this team still "going through a process of finding their game" and okay with the notion that they'll look like a team that shouldn't fire their coach by Christmas.

This is a Flames team that has which has its long term core completely locked up and healthy, and it's year 2 of Gulutzen's tenure. Not only that, but as I've said about the Oilers team last year, we could Currently be looking at the best flames roster were going to see in the next 3 to 5 years. With Backlund still on a reasonable contract, Tkachuk and Jankowski on their entry-level deals, etc., this could be the most talent the flames will ever be able to afford to ice. For people to be accepting of them muddling along at .500, even if they do trend better at some points, baffles me.

Stats can only go so far, but some of your questions can be answered.

Scoring Chances:

5 on 5 the Flames are 10th in the NHL generating 11.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of five on five hockey.

On the powerlay the Flames are ranked 12th with 23.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes on the powerplay (with 6 minutes a night that's essentially 23.6 every ten games or 2.4 per game)

The Bolts are 22nd in 5 on 5 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 10.3, 1.3 per game behind the Flames.

The Bolts are 4th in powerplay scoring chances though with 27.7 per 60 minutes which is roughly 2.8 per game (averaging) or .4 per game more than the Flames.

So the scoring chances are actually higher for the Flames in the average game.

Shooting percentage:

The Flames have a scoring chance conversion rate of 9.86% five on five, and 13.51% on the powerplay which is 25th and 23rd ranked respectively.

The Bolts are 16.41% (3rd) five on five and 18.37% (14th) on the powerplay.

Conclusion:

Hard to make any really. The Flames are certainly generating chances a better clip than you are seeing, but there are no stats to determine who has the most talent to finish.

I would say however, that it takes more talent to generate a chance than it necessarily takes to finish a chance, so I think the answer isn't simply "they Lightning have better players", but also the Lightning are getting some bounces over a relatively small sample size so far.

To each their own to interpret though.

[Mike F]

^^

I really appreciate the info.

Can you give similar stats for the Flames defensively, in terms of giving up high quality scoring chances?

Edit: OK, I did some digging on my own... First, I found this article on NHL Numbers that, after some seemingly thorough statsical analysis, concluded that there was an extremely high correlation between Fenwick and Scoring Chances that made independently tracking the latter of little additional usefulness. Based on that...

NHL.com's advanced stats show the Flames 5-on-5 Fenwick For (which it labels simply as Unblocked Shot Attempts For) as being 9th in the league. Pretty surprising to me, but in line with the stats Bingo cited (though it has Tampa being 11th, far off of Bingo's report).

Fenwick Against/USAT Against 5-on-5 tells a different story: the Flames are 21st in the league, and 13th of 15 teams in the West.

[blender]

Just want to comment on the high quality discussion going on here. I am more of a lurker/reader than contributor and this is better reading than most of the content lately.
Thanks, guys.

[Backlunds_socks]

I might not agree bingo always but he man does put together information in a logical format.

Appreciate it maing

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Stats can only go so far, but some of your questions can be answered.

Scoring Chances:

5 on 5 the Flames are 10th in the NHL generating 11.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of five on five hockey.

On the powerlay the Flames are ranked 12th with 23.6 high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes on the powerplay (with 6 minutes a night that's essentially 23.6 every ten games or 2.4 per game)

The Bolts are 22nd in 5 on 5 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 10.3, 1.3 per game behind the Flames.

The Bolts are 4th in powerplay scoring chances though with 27.7 per 60 minutes which is roughly 2.8 per game (averaging) or .4 per game more than the Flames.

So the scoring chances are actually higher for the Flames in the average game.

Shooting percentage:

The Flames have a scoring chance conversion rate of 9.86% five on five, and 13.51% on the powerplay which is 25th and 23rd ranked respectively.

The Bolts are 16.41% (3rd) five on five and 18.37% (14th) on the powerplay.

Conclusion:

Hard to make any really. The Flames are certainly generating chances a better clip than you are seeing, but there are no stats to determine who has the most talent to finish.

I would say however, that it takes more talent to generate a chance than it necessarily takes to finish a chance, so I think the answer isn't simply "they Lightning have better players", but also the Lightning are getting some bounces over a relatively small sample size so far.

To each their own to interpret though.

Sorry but I really think you're taking the stats too far to suit how you want to see things. Top three corsi teams in the league are the Hurricanes, Oilers and Canadiens. I bristle at the idea that when results do not correspond to stats, it is a reflection of luck. Shooting percentage is not luck. Monahan has a high shooting percentage and there's no one on the team I would rather have shooting the puck. He also finds the dangerous areas at the right times. Those are very important skills. I think the Lightning undoubtedly have more high-end offensive talent than the Flames. We're all fans anyway but I don't think you do a team any favours by concluding we're just not getting the bounces when comparing ourselves to teams that are scoring more than we are. I think you look at what you can do better, or who you can get who would do better than who you've got.

Positive offensive trends over the past handful of games though so maybe the "bounces" are starting to come. Hopefully it continues and you can say I told you so.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Sorry but I really think you're taking the stats too far to suit how you want to see things. Top three corsi teams in the league are the Hurricanes, Oilers and Canadiens. I bristle at the idea that when results do not correspond to stats, it is a reflection of luck. Shooting percentage is not luck. Monahan has a high shooting percentage and there's no one on the team I would rather have shooting the puck. He also finds the dangerous areas at the right times. Those are very important skills. I think the Lightning undoubtedly have more high-end offensive talent than the Flames. We're all fans anyway but I don't think you do a team any favours by concluding we're just not getting the bounces when comparing ourselves to teams that are scoring more than we are. I think you look at what you can do better, or who you can get who would do better than who you've got.

Positive offensive trends over the past handful of games though so maybe the "bounces" are starting to come. Hopefully it continues and you can say I told you so.

Well first of all I'm not doing anything with the stats but looking them up. They are what they are. Everyone sees a game differently, but the stats happen to back up what I'm seeing these days. But I'm not altering or editing in any way to prove a point.

Monahan is Monahan, I don't disagree. But the Flames have half a roster shooting at a level that is unsustainable bad. The league averages 8% five on five, and 9.5% in all situations through the last 5 seasons. If you're way under that with an NHL roster it's likely to change.

There will be always be outliers for sure, and I don't disagree with that, but just as I didn't think Mike Smith would stay at .960 for a save percentage all season, I was pretty sure the Flames wouldn't stay at 5% in shooting percentage either.

What happened this week? Smith leaking a bit, and the Flames scoring, both trending back towards the mean.

The Flames rode Smith to a 4-2-0 record that they didn't deserve.
Then they went 2-4-0 when they were actually playing much better.

Happens.

Right now they are trending positive in most fashions based on the numbers. But up to you if you a) don't agree or b) see it differently.

[Bingo]

Gulutzan quote from the Sun

“We get fixated on the scoring goals part of it, and they were a welcome addition (Thursday) because it gives guys confidence,” Gulutzan said. “But we have it in our stats and a lot of the metrics you see around, we’re one of the top teams at creating chances in the National Hockey League. Our shooting percentage is down, but we’ve created a lot more chances. But it’s a matter of time — if guys get some confidence, they’ll break through and score more goals.”