2016/2017 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

The goal in offer sheeting McDavid would be to not finish low in the standings and draft high. Every team in the league would trade four 1st rounders for him.

That's what Brian Burke thought when he traded for Kessel. But like the 15-16 Flames, bad goaltending can really hurt your season. Or some other misfortune

I don't think any team believes giving away 4 first round picks for the best player in the world is a recipe for winning a championship. Not in today's NHL.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by The Coppernian One

Has this actually ever happened before? Crosby, no. Ovechkin, no. Stamkos, Kane, Toews, Tavares, all no.

I think McDavid signing for league max is wishful/hopeful thinking of a rival fan base. Make no mistake, he's going to get paid. A lot. But is there actually an example of a player having the league max AAV? There are a lot of top end players that the same argument could apply to, but it never happens.

I could actually see him doing the Crosby contract and signing for 9.7 AAV on a front loaded deal (Crosby's was 8.7 if memory serves).

Crosby took 14.5% of the cap at the time he signed. That would put mcdavid in the 10-11 million dollar range on a 12 year deal.if he signs a deal based around the one toews just signed at 15% of the cap, that's 11+ per year.

[PepsiFree]

It's also worth remembering when looking at Crosby vs McDavid in terms of contract, is that Crosby's current deal was signed before back-diving deals were eliminated, which the Oilers will be unable to take advantage of.

Crosby's average until he's 35 is something like 10.5 million per year, on a contract signed 5 years ago.

If you don't think McDavid is getting at least around that number long term, I don't know what to say. The idea seems impossible to me. There are no 2-3 million per season years to throw on to the back end of the contract to lower the cap hit. It'll probably be 8 years and it'll probably be huge.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yeah max deal is wishful thinking for sure. But based on the compensation rates, a 9.9 is a really good deal for him, so I think he'll get at least that.

The thing is, if a team is confident in it's draft history, losing four first round picks can be disasterous, especially if you're a bad team after that trade. Here's the "best" of the first round picks prior to the McDavid draft, assuming a top 5-10 pick:
- Ehlers
- Monahan
- Lindholm
- Scheifele

I would take those four players over one McDavid any day.

If you signed McDavid and your team had 4 lottery picks you did a terrible job with the rest of your team. If some team miraculously got the best 4 players in the draft outside the top 5 that team is incredibly lucky.

A more likely scenario if you signed McDavid would be two picks between 15-20 and two picks between 20-25. In those 4 years you cited, if you got the best pick in each draft you would have

Klefbom
Hertl
Burakovsky
Pastranak

McDavid is worth all those players and then some. And those 4 players are the best case scenarios in the 2011-2014 drafts. Only with magical draft picks is the age old truism of hockey "he who gets the best player wins the trade" false. Draft picks are the kryptonite to that saying.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Is McDavid at 9.9 million x 7 years worth 4 first rounders?

Compare him with the Oilers' 3 previous first over-all picks.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

When Crosby signed for $8.7 million AAV after his ELC, the salary cap was $56.7 million.

Today, the cap is at $73 million. Adjusted for salary cap inflation, Crosby's contract would have been equivalent to $12.5 million AAV today.

Exactly. Oilers fans are delusional if they think McDavid is going to sign for $9.7M a season. The number to look at is Crosby's 2007 extension, when the cap was $50.3M. Crosby signed for 17.29% of cap. It's one thing to leave 1.71% on the table, so sign for your number, but there is no way McDavid is signing for 13.28%. He is not going to leave 6.72% ($5M) on the table. It ain't happening. Not when there are 30 other teams that will happily back up a Brinks truck to scoop him up.

[nickerjones]

Originally Posted by New Era

Exactly. Oilers fans are delusional if they think McDavid is going to sign for $9.7M a season. The number to look at is Crosby's 2007 extension, when the cap was $50.3M. Crosby signed for 17.29% of cap. It's one thing to leave 1.71% on the table, so sign for your number, but there is no way McDavid is signing for 13.28%. He is not going to leave 6.72% ($5M) on the table. It ain't happening. Not when there are 30 other teams that will happily back up a Brinks truck to scoop him up.

This is exactly the argument. All my Oiler friend buddies think he is taking a hometown discount because he loves Edmonton.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by nickerjones

This is exactly the argument. All my Oiler friend buddies think he is taking a hometown discount because he loves Edmonton.

The reality is that he could have been drafted by the Leafs and he still wouldn't be taking a home town discount.

[savemedrzaius]

Personally I don't think any fan should expect their young stars to take a discount.

It doesn't make sense for the player to do it so it's selfish for fans to expect it.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Oilers will sign McDavid for 7 years, 7 mill, then Rexall Pharmacy's will anoint him as a Business Ambassador (10mill a year salary) and CP will explode.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by H2SO4(aq)

Oilers will sign McDavid for 7 years, 7 mill, then Rexall Pharmacy's will anoint him as a Business Ambassador (10mill a year salary) and CP will explode.

Explode with laughter, that is, when Bettman makes the inevitable ruling that Rexall is a ‘Club Affiliated Entity’, and as such, not allowed to pay McDavid anything. And if he's already cashed his signing bonus from Rexall, we'll laugh even harder when Bettman declares the Oilers in violation of the cap, and pinches a first-round pick from them as punishment.

I'd love to see Katz try something that obviously stupid.

[H2SO4(aq)]

I was kidding but yes. It wouldnt really shock me coming from Katz.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Yeah max deal is wishful thinking for sure. But based on the compensation rates, a 9.9 is a really good deal for him, so I think he'll get at least that.

The thing is, if a team is confident in it's draft history, losing four first round picks can be disasterous, especially if you're a bad team after that trade. Here's the "best" of the first round picks prior to the McDavid draft, assuming a top 5-10 pick:
- Ehlers
- Monahan
- Lindholm
- Scheifele

I would take those four players over one McDavid any day.

You are assuming the team that offer sheets McDavid will finish near the basement for 4 years? Compare the average 15-30 picks...most of them don't play 100 games. It would be a no brainer for McDavid. Worst case the Oilers match and pay more than they expected

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It's also worth remembering when looking at Crosby vs McDavid in terms of contract, is that Crosby's current deal was signed before back-diving deals were eliminated, which the Oilers will be unable to take advantage of.

Crosby's average until he's 35 is something like 10.5 million per year, on a contract signed 5 years ago.

If you don't think McDavid is getting at least around that number long term, I don't know what to say. The idea seems impossible to me. There are no 2-3 million per season years to throw on to the back end of the contract to lower the cap hit. It'll probably be 8 years and it'll probably be huge.

This.

Crosby signed a 12 year retirement contract at age 25 worth $104.4 million. I guess even Crosby is expected to slow down and make chump change at age 35.

13/14 - $12m
14/15 - $12m
15/16 - $12m
16/17 - $10.9m
17/18 - $10.9m
18/19 - $10m
19/20 - $9m
20/21 - $9.6m
21/22 - $9m
22/23 - $3m
23/24 - $3m
24/25 - $3m

Since the Oilers can't add in semi-retirement years. I fully expect north of $13 x 8 or Mr. Orr isn't doing his job, I wouldn't be shocked to see a 7 year deal worth 97 million

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

This.

Crosby signed a 12 year retirement contract at age 25 worth $104.4 million. I guess even Crosby is expected to slow down and make chump change at age 35.

13/14 - $12m
14/15 - $12m
15/16 - $12m
16/17 - $10.9m
17/18 - $10.9m
18/19 - $10m
19/20 - $9m
20/21 - $9.6m
21/22 - $9m
22/23 - $3m
23/24 - $3m
24/25 - $3m

Since the Oilers can't add in semi-retirement years. I fully expect north of $13 x 8 or Mr. Orr isn't doing his job, I wouldn't be shocked to see a 7 year deal worth 97 million

That is pretty much what I think as well. I could see a scenario where Orr throws 7 years 97 million on the table and Katz insists on 7 years 99 million so that Gretz's number is in the contract and there is a 9 and a 7 in the contract.

[Vinny01]

Lots of talk that the Habs are looking for 2way forwards this summer and definitely will be looking to make a shake up trade. Would you do the following trade?

Backlund for Galchenyuk?

Backlund seems like a good fit for Julien while Galchenyuk is a fit age wise with the Flames core.

The Flames create a hole up the middle as Backlund's spot would be filled by Bennett, Lazar, Jankowski, or Galchenyuk (who I think is a winger). He has size and is 5 years younger than Backlund so a long term fit. RFA coming off a bridge deal so a 4-6 year contract in the $4-$5M range I would think to keep him here.

[kukkudo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Lots of talk that the Habs are looking for 2way forwards this summer and definitely will be looking to make a shake up trade. Would you do the following trade?

Backlund for Galchenyuk?

Backlund seems like a good fit for Julien while Galchenyuk is a fit age wise with the Flames core.

The Flames create a hole up the middle as Backlund's spot would be filled by Bennett, Lazar, Jankowski, or Galchenyuk (who I think is a winger). He has size and is 5 years younger than Backlund so a long term fit. RFA coming off a bridge deal so a 4-6 year contract in the $4-$5M range I would think to keep him here.

Don't see the Habs making that deal.

[Par]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Lots of talk that the Habs are looking for 2way forwards this summer and definitely will be looking to make a shake up trade. Would you do the following trade?

Backlund for Galchenyuk?

Backlund seems like a good fit for Julien while Galchenyuk is a fit age wise with the Flames core.

The Flames create a hole up the middle as Backlund's spot would be filled by Bennett, Lazar, Jankowski, or Galchenyuk (who I think is a winger). He has size and is 5 years younger than Backlund so a long term fit. RFA coming off a bridge deal so a 4-6 year contract in the $4-$5M range I would think to keep him here.

There better be a huge + coming with Galchenyuk.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Par

There better be a huge + coming with Galchenyuk.

Byron

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Par

There better be a huge + coming with Galchenyuk.

I love Backlund but over the last two seasons he has put up 100 pts, and Galchenyuk has put up 100 pts. So they are pretty equal from a points production standpoint.

Also Galchenyuk is 5 years younger, and IMO the offensive upside is way higher.

You lose the all around game that Backlund provides but I take the younger player with offensive upside.

As much as I love Backlund I would make that trade in a 1 for 1 deal.