American Politics Thread: Orange is the new POTUS

[FlameOn]

Trump is now saying he is not afraid of a trade war with Canada despite it making very little sense for his own country.

President Trump on Tuesday downplayed concerns about a trade war with Canada after his administration slapped tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber.

“No,” the president told reporters when asked if he fears a trade war. “They have a tremendous surplus with the United States. Whenever they have a surplus, I have no fear.”

Trump’s decision to impose tariffs of as much as 24 percent on Canadian softwood imports ignited a long-simmering dispute between the two close trading partners.

Combined with his saber-rattling on the Canadian dairy market and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), it has sparked concerns about a broader trade conflict that could have significant effects on the U.S. economy.
Canada is the second-largest U.S. trading partner, with $575 billion in two-way goods exchanged in 2015.

Despite Trump’s comments, the trade relationship is relatively balanced. The U.S. only had a $15 billion trade deficit with Canada in 2015, according to figures compiled by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...ar-with-canada

This is looking more and more like Trump trying to get a cheap win to distract from his floundering administration. He needs a 'win' so he can appear to look like he is actually doing something beneficial other than just enriching himself in his time in office. He cannot upset China now (by claiming they climate change is a Chinese conspiracy for example) as he needs their help with North Korea, so he is looking for someone else to bully. We have balanced trade with the US for the most part and a $400 million dollar dairy trade deficit. Softwood lumber has been ruled to be not subsidized by the WTO every time this has been brought up since the 80s and chooses now to start a trade war.

After bashing China incessantly on the campaign trail and through his first 80 or so days in office, Donald Trump appeared to back down once it became clear that he would need Xi Jinping’s help avoiding a nuclear standoff with North Korea. “Why would I call China a currency manipulator when they are working with us on the North Korean problem? We will see what happens!” he tweeted last week. The Trump administration is still making some vaguely nationalist noises in Beijing’s direction, launching a dumping investigation into China and other steel producers. But for the most part—for the time being—China is no longer Public Enemy No. 1. That’s a problem for Trump, who needs targets to bully like living things need air. And so with China off the table, he’s decided to look north.


Canada, for those of you who need a refresher, is one of the United States’ closest allies. It is the No. 1 buyer of our goods, with “a largely balanced trade relationship, totaling $635 billion in 2016.” Its prime minister, Justin Trudeau, has charitably said that President Trump, who appears to be perpetually in the midst of a temper tantrum, “actually listens and is open to changing his mind.” That same prime minister graciously treated First Daughter Ivanka Trump to a night at the theater in March (his wife was there, too, and he was presumably a perfect gentleman). In the first three months of Trump’s presidency, the nation has “flooded Washington with envoys,” including ambassador David MacNaughton, who praised the White House as “delightful to deal with.”

In short, Canada is the perfect neighbor—the kind you hope never moves away, leaving inconsiderate jerks who play music at all hours of the night and block your driveway in their place. So, naturally, Donald Trump has decided to treat Canada like crap.

And while Canada will not simply roll over and let Trump tell it how to run its dairy industry, the idea that the U.S. president will make Canada the target of his war on trade imbalances strikes many as just as absurd as it sounds. Or as political scientist Ian Bremmer puts it:

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/...canada-tariffs

[octothorp]

I think we'll see an ACA-like effect with NAFTA: once the threat of it being taken away forces people to actually look at the content of it, it will rise in popularity and become much more politically difficult to change.

While there are probably a lot of people in the white house who want to see NAFTA renegotiated, but a bunch of them are corporate globalists who want to see markets opened up for US businesses, and a bunch are isolationist protectionists who want to see the US international trade shut down.

It will require a delicate approach by Canada, though. They need to be active in making sure that the message about how much this is going to hurt the US's own interests gets out there, but they need to be careful about how they do so... this is a bunch of voters who take great offense to anyone telling them what is in their own best interests, even when it's true.

[killer_carlson]

Canada is easy money for Trump because from every indication our illustrious prime minister is not capable of responding.

One of the best solutions to a trade war would be to open access to our ports for all exports, including oil and gas. This should be fast tracked but Trudeau is absent.

From a US perspective, why wouldn't Trump squeeze Canada when they will encounter very little resistance to do so?

[FanIn80]

I was just thinking to myself, how come it's Presidents like JFK and Lincoln that get shot, while the ones like Trump never have to worry about it? Then I realized it's because all gun-f***ing weirdos out there are literally Trump's largest support base.

Hard to imagine someone making love to their laser-scoped assault rifle over a candlelit confederate flag raising ceremony going out and voting for Hillary or Obama.

[DuffMan]

America is such a mess, thanks Trump.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Canada is easy money for Trump because from every indication our illustrious prime minister is not capable of responding.

One of the best solutions to a trade war would be to open access to our ports for all exports, including oil and gas. This should be fast tracked but Trudeau is absent.

Yeah! It's been like an hour since trade war was mentioned! WHY SO ABSENT JUSTIN? WHY AREN'T THE PORTS OPEN LIKE 30 MINUTES AGO?

lol.

I wouldn't really judge a response time based on Trump's response time. Even if Trudeau has been preparing for this possibility for a while, as we've seen from Trump, you can't just snap your fingers and make something happen.

I'd like to know what indications constitute the "every" though. Trudeau has proved himself more than capable of holding his ground.

[Burninator]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Canada is easy money for Trump because from every indication our illustrious prime minister is not capable of responding.

Hasn't this been the case for all of our prime ministers?

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Burninator

Hasn't this been the case for all of our prime ministers?

Naw, what about the illustrious PM Whose-His-Pickle who played hardball with uh...no, uhm...

[Ozy_Flame]

Any reaction to U.S. policy impacting Canada is made from a ruling government party approach with a team of public relations and consultants, not simply the individual noggin of the party leader.

People blaming Justin should really be yelling at the Liberals, or at the very least the way in which politics works. You don't get instant gratification in politics as much as people think its possible.

[DuffMan]

What I read yesterday, and I agree with, is, JT should not fall into the trap of a public argument with Trump, that's what Trump is looking for, at the moment. There will come a time where everyone sits down to negotiate this, and now is not the time to engage publicly.

[CaptainCrunch]

Trump is looking for an easy win, and this tax reduction combined with the softwood lumber and NAFTA negotiation will probably give him that.

The cost to Canada is going to be enormous especially since it will significantly harm Canada's auto segment and manufacturing in Ontario.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Canada is easy money for Trump because from every indication our illustrious prime minister is not capable of responding.

One of the best solutions to a trade war would be to open access to our ports for all exports, including oil and gas. This should be fast tracked but Trudeau is absent.

From a US perspective, why wouldn't Trump squeeze Canada when they will encounter very little resistance to do so?

This.

Trudeau is so out of his depth here, and Trump is just taking advantage to score cheap political points at home.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

Canada is easy money for Trump because from every indication our illustrious prime minister is not capable of responding.

One of the best solutions to a trade war would be to open access to our ports for all exports, including oil and gas. This should be fast tracked but Trudeau is absent.

From a US perspective, why wouldn't Trump squeeze Canada when they will encounter very little resistance to do so?

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Yeah! It's been like an hour since trade war was mentioned! WHY SO ABSENT JUSTIN? WHY AREN'T THE PORTS OPEN LIKE 30 MINUTES AGO?

lol.

I wouldn't really judge a response time based on Trump's response time. Even if Trudeau has been preparing for this possibility for a while, as we've seen from Trump, you can't just snap your fingers and make something happen.

I'd like to know what indications constitute the "every" though. Trudeau has proved himself more than capable of holding his ground.

Why? Because he bro'd down on his handshake with Trump?

We have made a mess of US/Canada relations for years. They don't respect us, and any time they want to score populist points, we come in as target #2 after Mexico.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by peter12

This.

Trudeau is so out of his depth here, and Trump is just taking advantage to score cheap political points at home.

How is Trudeau out of his depth here? what do you base that on?

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Trump is looking for an easy win, and this tax reduction combined with the softwood lumber and NAFTA negotiation will probably give him that.

I agree, Trump is desperate for a win, and right now Canada appears to be the easiest way to get one- at least from his perspective. But I don't think this will go as easily or smoothly as he thinks it will. I seriously doubt that Canada is just gonna roll over for this a--hole. I have a feeling this is gonna get pretty nasty.

[DuffMan]

SURREY, B.C. - Premier Christy Clark wants the federal government to ban the shipment of thermal coal through ports in British Columbia after the United States announced new tariffs on softwood lumber.

Clark said she has written to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and asked that Ottawa act by stopping the export of the coal, including from the United States.

The B.C. Liberal leader made the announcement Wednesday at a paper products company in Surrey while campaigning for the May 9 provincial election, saying the impasse over softwood lumber "gives us the freedom to do what I think is unquestionably the right thing."

"That coal, most of it is American but not all of it that's shipped through our ports, is dirty. It fouls the air. It fouls the oceans. It's terrible for the environment."

Clark said a ban would fit with her goal of developing a liquefied natural gas industry, arguing if China were to shift from coal to LNG it would have "a massive impact" on greenhouse gas emissions.

"So it's the right thing to do, but I haven't felt free to be able to do that because I haven't wanted to upset negotiations that seemed to be going along, granted at a slow pace," she said.

"But now that they have slapped a duty on Canada and they're calling us names, we're free to take an action that's long overdue."

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada...JcE?li=AAggNb9

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Any reaction to U.S. policy impacting Canada is made from a ruling government party approach with a team of public relations and consultants, not simply the individual noggin of the party leader.

People blaming Justin should really be yelling at the Liberals, or at the very least the way in which politics works. You don't get instant gratification in politics as much as people think its possible.

I'm not a big fan of trudeau, but it's pretty ignorant for anyone to blame trudeau for not getting anything done.
how was the government supposed to know in advance what trump was going to do, if anything? trump doesn't even seem to know from hour to hour.
now that we know what the trump government is doing, I'm assuming the Liberal team is doing their job out of the public limelight to deal with this issue.
We don't need Trudeau blustering in front of cameras or sending stupid tweets. leave that to trump, and let's see what Canada does as a measured response.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

I'm not a big fan of trudeau, but it's pretty ignorant for anyone to blame trudeau for not getting anything done.
how was the government supposed to know in advance what trump was going to do, if anything? trump doesn't even seem to know from hour to hour.
now that we know what the trump government is doing, I'm assuming the Liberal team is doing their job out of the public limelight to deal with this issue.
We don't need Trudeau blustering in front of cameras or sending stupid tweets. leave that to trump, and let's see what Canada does as a measured response.

I'm assuming that Trudeau knew this was coming based on a phone call between him and Trump a couple of days ago.

Trump is going to hit Canada with both barrels on this one.

He's basically going after our manufacturing segment, he wants the entire North American Auto sector based in the States as well as any manufacturing jobs that he can scoop up.

On top of that he's going to really start going after the NATO nations in terms of defense funding so he's going to target Canada on their low defense spending.

Relations have been best classified as ignored on both sides for year, I've always said that the its a marriage of convenience and right now its convenient for the US to go after Canada in terms of trade, because it should be a pretty easy knockout blow for Trump and he can hold a victory like that over other nations.

As much as we expected this softwood blowup to happen again because its one of the more heavily subsidized industries in Canada, the Dairy sector targeting was probably pretty unwelcomed here.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

What I read yesterday, and I agree with, is, JT should not fall into the trap of a public argument with Trump, that's what Trump is looking for, at the moment. There will come a time where everyone sits down to negotiate this, and now is not the time to engage publicly.

Exactly.

Our government is smart enough to not get into a public war of words with Trump.

Do people really want Trudeau jumping on Twitter to fight this battle? That's not how you take on someone irrational like Trump. Let Trump say all the BS he wants. He is going to say and do whatever he wants and the more you tell him no, the more he is going to stick to his guns.

Taking on Canada for trade is dumb. Our trade with them is almost even. They have an 11/545 billion dollar or 2% deficit with us, which is astonishingly even in the big picture and considering their overall trade deficit globally. They export more to Canada than to any other country in the world and Canadians are the largest consumers of American made goods (maybe aside from the U.S. itself).

https://www.thebalance.com/trade-def...county-3306264

Trump's stance will hurt his own people as well if he wants to take a hard line. Not smart for a country short of friends right now.

[Cole436]

No one yet?